How about this for a plausible scenerio from a neutral side (something similar was proposed by Novodvorskaya - a well known anti-Kremlin and
anti-Putin Russian political intellectual):
Throughout the summer Georgia is provoked by S. Ossetian separatists. They conduct raids with gunfire on Georgian villages in S. Ossetia. Georgian
militia respons by same gunfire.
Georgians pull up more troops to the area gradually, because of the rising tensions. Russia pulls in some more peacekeepers - looking at Georgian
actions with caution.
The S. Ossetians see an opportunity in this massing of troops, and increase their raids on Georgians. Georgians increase the counter raids. Russian
peacekeepers turn a blind eye.
A Georgian APC is attacked by S. Ossetian provocators on 6th-7th, and several people killed. Georgia decides it is time for action, also looking with
caution at Russian massing of troops. On the night of the 7th they start shelling the separatist positions in and around Tskhinvalli, where there
happen to be many civilians as well as fighters. Shelling continues through the night as Georgians attempt to quickly put down the separatist
positions and restore the republic as part of Georgia - but many civilians die and Georgia does not advance far.
Russia alarmed by civilian deaths and the deaths of its peacekeepers, and decides it is time for action to prevent an all-out war. Georgia continues
shelling. After the Russian troops move in they are also hit together with the separatists. Georgia is less than thrilled with Russian troops on what
it considers its territory. Russia is mad because Georgia's attack killed many civilians.
Russia begins its air strikes because of Georgia's continued attack. Conflict escalates. Several rumored cease fire pledges are made, but confusion
results in none being abided by.
Russia stops at Tskhinvalli but are still taking fire from Georgians. Georgians are still firing because they are getting hit by air strikes. It a
"you hit me I hit you" kind of thing for both sides.
Russia makes a crucial decision on a key move to pursue Georgian positions firing on them from inside Georgia. Air strikes are unsuccesful and Russia
loses several jets. Russia decides to do several quick strikes into Georgia to pursue the Georgian troops.
Meanwhile Moscow uses this as an opportunity to scare Saakashvilli into stepping down from power. They suggest a "regime change" will do for a
cease fire in UN. They succeed in scaring Saakashvilli, but not in the way they expected.
Saakashvilli uses these quick but limited advances by Russians to wage a propaganda war to his advantage. He blows the alarm bells that Russia is
invading all of Georgia and appeals to the West, and blows the events out of proportion. Russia does not send in any more troops for now seeing what
he is doing, and is starting to scale back its attack - which never was a plan for an actual invasion but precision strikes - and turns back the
troops. Then the military minds and political minds converge in Russia - and start to question both the attack and retreat - what do they do now?
Take advantage of confusion and press on, or scale back and accept cease fire?
Meanwhile the West is buying the whole thing up - perhaps because it wants to. Talk starts of an anti-Russian alliances to help Georgia wage a proxy
war - that did not have to happen.
The U.S.'s role is in supporting Georgia and Saakashvilli - and approving much of what he does. U.S. trained Georgian troops, and started talk of
NATO membership. This made the situation worse, because Russia now has another incentive to keep fighting, and Saakashvilli has another incentive to
raise the alarm and call for Western help.
So here you have it.
Each sides responds to actions of others first disproportionately. Georgia respons disproportionately to S. Ossetian separatists. Then Russia
responds disproportionately to Georgia. Then the media and Saakashvilli blow everything out of proportions and you got mass confusion.
S. Ossetian rebels in this theory provoked the whole thing, knowing of both Georgian and Russian massing in the area. The media spun the whole thing
out of control and only added to confusion.
And a war that didn't have to happen might now happen. Georgia did not want to kill civilians, and Russia did not want to invade. But because of
propaganda and political ambitions on both sides - a major conflict flared up.
Now Russia is the odd man out. If it continues its attacks - Saakashvilli and his alarm will be proved right. If it retreats back, Saakashvilli will
claim that the U.S. statements scared it off - and Russian military will be embarassed.
DENY IGNORANCE. No one is right. No one is wrong. And no one is neutral. No one really knows what is going on. This is how wars start.
[edit on 11-8-2008 by maloy]
Some parts of this were suggested on website of Echo of Moscow radio. It is in Russian. The radio station is anti-Kremlin and anti-NATO, and tries
to approach many things from neutral side.
www.echo.msk.ru...
I strongly suggest those few of you who can read Russian to take a look at the articles on this website - or use an auto-translator to post them here.
I'll try to translate some when I am back.
[edit on 11-8-2008 by maloy]
[edit on 11-8-2008 by maloy]
