Originally posted by buddhasystem
The Don Cossacks are forming an all-volunteer, 450-strong regiment, which would be an Army unit. That's a significant force.

Not against 35,000 Georgian troops backed by heavy armor, artillery, and airforce. If Georgia decides to wage an all out war, most of the defenders currently in South Ossetia will be wiped out. Of course then Russia will be forced to declare an all-out war.

Those brave few who are in the republic now are sitting beneath a powder keg. Hopefully Russia's presence will allow enough time for the civilians to evacuate North.

Maloy,

Could we have a breakup of the forces Russia has been building up along the border for this?

Infantry of course, but what kind of armored assets? And as for Aerial units, I presume that the Russian Su-25s would be flying along with attack Mi-24/35s?
Any air sup fighters providing CAP?

Originally posted by maloy
Not against 35,000 Georgian troops backed by heavy armor, artillery, and airforce.

Looks like the Russians have air dominance right now. If so, does it help Georgians to have armor? I mean, how long will it last?

The troops shown on the news seem to match a "2nd class" Mechanized regiment. Up-armoured T-80s and MT-LB APCs. Not the premium equipment, but certainly more than match for Geotgian units.

I love how the media is making the Ossetians out to be a bunch of renegade, fanatical separatists looking to wreak havoc.

1. South Ossetia is NOT a "break-away Republic". It was an autonomous Oblast prior to 1991 and proclaimed it's independence after Soviet dissolution.

2. Just because the UN, NATO or the US don't give it diplomatic recognition doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Either of these 3 probably couldn't locate it on a map to begin with.
South Ossetia has been autonomously run without Georgian influence since 1991. They're independent.
Ignore what the West thinks of this, their beliefs are irrelevant.

3. While I agree the Ossetians initiated the fighting, the Georgians did open fire on Russian aircraft without provocation.
No one has confirmed Georgian reports of Sukhois attacking civilians or violating airspace.
They're reaching here. They realise they've stirred up a hornet's nest now, panicked and looked for the most dramatic excuse to justify their mistakes.

Georgia made a big mistake provoking Russia into this conflict.
I believe the Russians have every right to defend their Republics and stop foreign influence.

You play with fire long enough, you'll get burnt...

[edit on 8/8/08 by The Godfather of Conspira]

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Maloy,

Could we have a breakup of the forces Russia has been building up along the border for this?

Infantry of course, but what kind of armored assets? And as for Aerial units, I presume that the Russian Su-25s would be flying along with attack Mi-24/35s?
Any air sup fighters providing CAP?

I am at work right now and will be all night, so I can't really get this info. And I am not really that much of a military expert to validate it.


What I do know is that Russian military concentration in North Caucasus, Krasnodar, and the entire region between Black and Caspian seas, is among the highest in the country. This has been an area of concern for Russia ever since the first war in Abkhazia, the Nagorno-Karabakh war, and the Chechen Wars. Much of the troops and armor never left but merely got dispersed around regional military bases.

I do know that Mozdok (major staging area for Chechen Wars) saw much diminished activity. But other areas, such as those in Krasnodar (where I have relatives) and Sochi have seen influx of military assets for the last 2 years. Also the Russian Black sea coast (including border with Abkhazia) has seen increased activity with restationing of the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea.


So if breaks out in Abkhazia Russia has the ability to provide much needed support from the sea. Airforce units are also fairly well kept up in the area, with a large contingent of Su-25 and 27, as well as the newest attack helicopter you mentioned. Plus the long-range tactical bombers from airbases near Moscow are in range of conducting direct strikes Georgia.

So without mentioning specific numbers, you are looking at a very potent Russian force, which can be resupplied from other East-Russia regions in a matter of days and weeks. If Georgia decides to escalate, or U.S. somehow gets involved - Russia is more than ready.


And yes, I think Russia can establish air superiority with relative ease, which I believe they have already done - given no new reports of Georgian air attacks in the past 10 hours and given that Russia carried out air strikes near Tbilisi. Georgia does have potent AA armament, but I imagine Russia could take that out with cruise missiles if the need came.




Georgia is already outplayed here. It has no good cards left in the deck, other than to beg U.S. for help. All of Georgia's forces are now concentrated in a small area between Tbilisi and Tskhinvali, as well as near Abkhazia. Saakashvilli's only choice is to pull out of S. Ossetia, or risk losing his entire military. Georgia made the same mistake in 1990's in Abkhazia, and its military was obliterated without even much help from Russia.

Okay whoa... when did all the violence start in Georgia? That's not a place that's been at war in a long time, and I've seen lots of threads on this...

Originally posted by ParaFreaky
Okay whoa... when did all the violence start in Georgia? That's not a place that's been at war in a long time, and I've seen lots of threads on this...

Another example of how clueless the Western public really is about this. Only when the artillery shells start flying does the Western media wake up that the world does not revolve around Obama, McCain, and "teh evil terrorists".

Violance in the region has been escalating since May. A small circle of ATS members including me have been observing and talking about this for months, while everyone else ignored what was going on. Now suddenly all of ATS is interested in what is going on, and Americans suddenly learn that Georgia is not just a State, but a country with a 2,000 year old violent history.

I have made a prediction on ATS and posted a warning that war would start in South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the coming year or two, after Kosovo declared independence. To be honest I predicted war in Abkhazia before South Ossetia, but I guess Georgia went after an easy target first.

Mark my words today - TRANSDNIESTER AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH WILL SEE INCREASED VIOLENCE IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE YEARS. AZERBAIJAN WILL SEE ANOTHER UNAVOIDABLE WAR, AND US WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE BEHIND THE SCENES.

The Caucasus and Caspian regions' stability is being threatened by the U.S., and is being utterly ignored by American public. Everyone knows about Iran, but how many know about what is happening in Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan. When will the American public wake up to what is being done in their county's name in regions they never heard about?



Yes, this violance escalation is very quick, but it was predictable to anyone aware of what is going on. Wikipedia is a good basic source on the conflict. Just look up Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It'll give you the very basic knowledge, but of course this is far far more complicated than a brief internet article.

[edit on 8-8-2008 by maloy]

Here is the "official" Russian order of battle for North Caucasus:
North Caucasus Military District:
20th Guards Motor Rifle Division Volgograd

10th (Mountain) Separate Brigade of Special Designation Molkino, Krasnodar region

22nd Guards Separate Brigade of Special Designation Kovalevka, Aksai, Rostov Oblast

131st Motor Rifle Brigade Maykop

136th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade Dagestan

205th 'Cossack' Separate Motor Rifle Brigade Budyonnovsk, Stavropol Oblast

135th Separate Motor Rifle Regiment Prokhladny, Kabardino-Balkaria


Additionally following airborne units are staged within operational range:
7th Airborne Division - Novorossiysk
76th Air Assault Division - Pskov
98th Airborne Division - Ivanovo
106th Airborne Division - Tula


Airforce units in the north Caucasus district:
4th Army of VVS and PVO, North Caucasus Military District

1st Composite Air Division - Krasnodar
559th Bomber Aviation Regiment - Morozovsk - Su-24 in service;
959th Bomber Aviation Regiment - Yeysk - operates the Su-24 and L-39C;
368th Assault Aviation Regiment - Budyonnovsk - Su-25;
461st Assault Aviation Regiment - Krasnodar - Su-25;
960th Assault Aviation Regiment - Primorsko-Akhtarsk - Su-25;
51st Air Defence Corps - Rostov on Don
3rd Fighter Aviation Regiment - Krymskaya, (ex 562nd) - Su-27;
19th Fighter Aviation Regiment - Millerovo - MiG-29;
31st Fighter Aviation Regiment - Zernograd - MiG-29;
SAM Regiments
11th Independent Reconnaissance Air Regiment - Marinovka - operates the Su-24MR;
535th Independent Composite Air Regiment - Rostov on Don - Mi-8, An-12 and An-26 in service;
ex Army Aviation component
55th Independent Helicopter Regiment - Korenovsk - Mi-24, Mi-8, reported to be in line for Mi-28[14]
325th Independent Transport-Combat Helicopter Regiment - Yegorlyskaya - Mi-26, Mi-8;
487th Independent Helicopter Regiment for battle control- Budyonnovsk - Mi-8, Mi-24;


I think there are more smaller batallion sized units stationed there, but they are still marked in to their original districts. They could add up to a division.

I assume this is enough firepower to stop any military in the world...


[edit on 8-8-2008 by northwolf]

Originally posted by Daedalus3
hmmm..
well the reason I ask is purely to wager if NATO could afford to get involved in this even if it wanted to. Georgia is beat in under a week even if Russia progresses at snails pace.

Russia has no intention of attacking Georgia beyond South Ossetia. I can wager that Russia will not advance from S. Ossetia's borders (if only to create a small buffer zone to prevent further aggression from Georgia).

NATO might have the capability to get involved, but why would it? What is Georgia to NATO anyway. Less than a year ago it was nothing to it. What did the U.S. find oil there?

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Now if Russia has sufficient Air superiority and Air defense assets in the region, then NATO doesn't really want to intrude.. unless they're willing to risk high-value asset losses; I'm talking fixed wing aircraft and the likes.

In a theoretical but extremely unrealistic scenerio that NATO gets involved, they will have a very hard time confronting Russia. There are no aircraft carriers there, and they are highly unlikely to enter Black Sea, where they would be sitting ducks. Georgia has a limited amount of airports and airbases, many of which can easily be destroyed by Russia. That would mean a tactical nightmare for NATO. NATO is unfamiliar with the Caucasus and is not adapted to the terrain there. After Chechen wars Russia is. Russia can place S-300 and S-400 anti-air systems in North Ossetia within Russia, and still monitor all of skies over Georgia.

Furthermore countless very experienced guerilla fighters will support South Ossetia and Russia. These fighters can be compared to Chechens, and are just as experienced - perhaps more so than the Russian troops. In a true clean war (no nuclear weapons, and regional fighting isolated to the Caucasus) NATO does not stand much chance. This is Russia's territory.

Plus you are forgeting about the Russian Black Sea fleet.

Of course all of above is pure speculation, and I don't want anyone to quote me on that or to say that WW3 is upon us.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Saw pictures of Su-24s over Georgia as of today, so that gives Russia a real-on ground technological edge over any current contesting air units in the region.

So far I haven't heard of any action by Georgian small airforce in the last 12 hours. I believe Georgia is grounding its air assets to prevent their guaranteed destruction by Russian AA and interceptors.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
If you say Su-27s are based in operational range then that further complicates any NATO intervention; even of the highest technological order (barring the F-22 Raptor which i can assure will not be used here).

Either the Su-27 or Mig-29 or both are certainly ready for action. There are uncofirmed reports that these jets have been seen in the air over Georgia, and Russia certainly has them nearby ready to strike.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Put a couple of air defense S-300 batteries on the Russian border and that IMHO actually closes out any possibilities loss-free NATO military intervention in support of Georgia .

Exactly. I posted before I read your comment.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Immediate deployment of high value tactical air power(Su-24,25,27) coupled with layered air defense umbrellas (even though this may seem as an overkill for Georgia) in the region is crucial for Russia to dissuade any direct NATO military action.

Again - you seem to know more about military strategy then me. I am sure NATO knows this all well enough, and will not dare interfere.

Originally posted by Daedalus3
Conversely NATO needs to do the same to limit Russian options.

Hard to do, having nothing to start out with. If NATO does plan something, it would have to be only an all-out war. That is the only way they have any hope. And I doubt NATO would do anything like that for a Georgian dictator.

Explains the massive US move of war ships to the region over the last few weeks. Seems we knew in advance on this one.

Hang on kiddies it could get a little messy.

Originally posted by Illahee
Explains the massive US move of war ships to the region over the last few weeks. Seems we knew in advance on this one.

What region would that be. I think you are confusing two different events. Unless you see carriers in the Black Sea.

maloy,

Keep up the great reporting for us

I wish the best for your friend over there...

This is one of those realy weird conflicts...

Its a shame its happening, and i truely dont know what to make of it, other, then the US should stay away for the time being