Who is the real underdog: McCain or Obama?

I know there are a lot of threads about these two on ATS. I am not interested in starting a debate about who is the better candidate, why I should or should not vote for one or the other.

What I would like to discuss is this idea of the "Underdog". In an article on CNN.com today, they raise the question as to why Obama is not leading by more than he currently is, which this article says is 5 points. click here for a link to the article. Additionally, McCain has promoted himself as the underdog for quite some time now. click here for an article that quotes him saying that.

So, my question is: Who really is the underdog?

The definition of "underdog" is: A competitor thought unlikely to win; Somebody at a disadvantage

Based on that definition, which candidate came into this race at a disadvantage, or was more unlikely to win?

Clearly Obama was the underdog of the democratic primary. McCain was never an underdog on the republican side, while not a clear cut winner, certainly right in there with the pack. Does this matter now in the general election? Does either candidate have a genuine claim to the underdog title? What factors do you think play into this? Is race an automatic qualifier? Or is it irrelavent? Experience, age, etc? What goes into determining which candidate has the clear advantage here?

I would really like a mature, intelligent discussion here, so please try to refrain from injecting rude comments about the candidates, and try to stick to the subject of the thread...thanks in advance!

Without a doubt, McCain is the underdog. The current sitting president is the same party as he is and has one of the lowest approval ratings in history.

Obama used to be the underdog, but that came to an end very quickly with his fundraising and media love fest. This in itself has given McCain a pretty big disadvantage.


Its funny though because despite becoming the underdog, McCain is gaining pace in the polls quite rapidly. McCain probably gets less than a quarter of the coverage Obama gets, but things are pretty much tied. He's also old which plays into peoples decisions.


I think McCain is the underdog no doubt for many factors.

reply to post by BlueTriangle


Agreed. Nicely put BT.

McCain is the under dog. Thats why so many conservatives are up in arms

reply to post by BlueTriangle


So in your opinion, it has more to do with the party, not the candidate? That's an interesting take on it. Do you think that it matters then, who the candidates are, or would the republican be the underdog even if he was winning in the poles, or someone that was really popular?

Originally posted by Andrew E. Wiggin
reply to post by BlueTriangle

 

Agreed. Nicely put BT.

McCain is the under dog. Thats why so many conservatives are up in arms

What is this based on?

Are you comparing the two candidates, or the two parties, or is it based on who is currently ahead or raising more money?

If you compare then, categorically, is that the result you come to?

reply to post by kaffemoka


its based on public opinion and common sense.

Polls reflect public opinion.

Common sense is applied to polls

If John McCain and George Bush belong to the same party

and the majority of the american people dislike George Bush, it's pretty safe to assume that SOME of those majority will carry over their dislike to McCain as well.

Why is McCain the underdog?

Conservatives give us reason enough.

He's losing in all the polls.
The media gives him all the attention.
McCain cant even get his party behind him all the way. There are still plenty of conservative republicans who despise them and moan and groan and complain that the republican party nominated mccain fro POTUS

Its hilarious.

The media wouldnt cover Obama if it didnt give them ratings.

Ratings come from Americans who watch tv.

you can't get them to watch if you dont give them something they WANT to watch.

They want to watch Obama. Thats why he's covered.



Common sense.

Its a wonderful thing - but not all too common these days

[edit on 8/6/2008 by Andrew E. Wiggin]

From what I've read the young folk are becoming interested in politics again and favor Obama. That's a HUGE demographic. Yes, I'd say McCain is the under dog.

I think McCain is the obvious underdog.


McCain has come back from the dead mid way through the primaries. He was the underdrog of the Primaries as well.

He doesn't have anywhere near the speaking ability of Obama.

He is old. (Sorry, but that does count against him as much as we don't like to think it should. And this fact often overshadows his 24 years as Senator)

His own party doesn't really like him a whole lot. At least the vocal ones. Most all right wing pundits are spouting the talking points of "There is no one to vote for".

I have lots of respect for McCain, but I do see him as the underdog in the general Election because of these disadvantages.

Which is odd, because I think what we are actually witnessing is the REAL UNDERDOG of the left finally getting back into office, but doing so with such a force that it just makes everything else look paltry by comparison.






[edit on 6-8-2008 by Quazga]

Originally posted by Andrew E. Wiggin
reply to post by kaffemoka

 

its based on public opinion and common sense.

Polls reflect public opinion.

Common sense is applied to polls

If John McCain and George Bush belong to the same party

and the majority of the american people dislike George Bush, it's pretty safe to assume that SOME of those majority will carry over their dislike to McCain as well.

Why is McCain the underdog?

Conservatives give us reason enough.

He's losing in all the polls.


[edit on 8/6/2008 by Andrew E. Wiggin]

Have you seen the latest polls Andrew? Obama and McCain are virtually tied. Obama has lost almost a 20 point lead over McCain in a period of 1 month. You are obviously very new to the scene, especially to be using polls so early on. Polls change drastically after the debates and become more solid during mid October.

Obama has had the lead up until now, but he is loosing his lead at an extremely rapid pace.

Its like the old story of the tortoise and the hare.

McCain is the slow old tortoise and Obama is the young fast hare.

It doesnt matter if you have an early lead in the race, what matters is if you finish the race in first place. I will bet almost anything that the Tortoise and Hare story will hold true come November.

Happy Debating !

[edit on 8/6/2008 by AndrewTB]

Originally posted by AndrewTB

Have you seen the latest polls Andrew? Obama and McCain are virtually tied. Obama has lost almost a 20 point lead over McCain in a period of 1 month. You are obviously very new to the scene, especially to be using polls so early on. Polls change drastically after the debates and become more solid during mid October.

Obama has had the lead up until now, but he is loosing his lead at an extremely rapid pace.

It's summer.

Polls that occur between the end of a primary and the party conventions are hardly a bellweather of anything.

[edit on 6-8-2008 by Quazga]

reply to post by Quazga

Polls that occur between the end of a primary and the party conventions are hardly a bellweather of anything.

Yeah, polls only matter when they can help push liberal agendas. Any other time, they are worthless.

So, what I hear from most of you is that since McCain is from the Bush party and has been behind in the poles, that makes him the underdog?

I'm not sure I agree with that train of thought. The polls can shift, and approval ratings can too, so can the underdog change throughout the race?