Miliband refuses to rule out leadership bid

David Miliband said today that he was "certain" Gordon Brown could take Labour to a fourth election victory but pointedly refused to rule out a leadership bid of his own.

"Can Gordon lead us into the next election and win? Yes, I'm certain about that," he told a joint press conference in London with Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini.

Asked whether his article in today's Guardian calling for a "radical new phase" in government policy marked a direct challenge the prime minister, Miliband replied: "Gordon Brown is the leader of the Labour party and he will lead us forward to address the big issues."

But, when challenged several times to directly rule himself out of a leadership bid, the foreign secretary would go no further than saying he wanted to discuss "arguments, not personalities".

The Guardian

You can read the article that Miliband wrote here.

There seems to be a distinct unease within the Labour Party - both in Parliament, in the Cabinet and in the party generally. Numerous Cabinet ministers have gone away on their summer holidays without actually supporting the Prime Minister.

Now, it's important not to get too excited - it's very possible that Gordon Brown might turn his fortunes around. Remember, this time last year he was fairly popular. Political fortunes can change in the course of a few hours (look at Black Wednesday and the effect that had on John Major and his government, for instance). But on the other hand, if Brown fails to succeed, it's quite possible that two or more Cabinet members (and perhaps other members of the Parliamentary Labour Party) will stand against Brown in a leadership election.

Labour know that, if they do this, there has to be a general election in 3-6 months after a new leader is elected. That gives the new leader time to set out his or her ideas and show the country how he/she intends to govern before giving the electorate a chance to vote on it. There are plenty of examples of someone becoming Prime Minister part way through a term and not holding an election, but there's no precedent for a Prime Minister changing twice in a single term (even though, legally, this is perfectly acceptable). So it's a gamble. If Labour let Brown lead them, they have until June 2010 before facing the electorate. If they ditch him, we'll probably have an election in spring 2009.

We'll see how things go. Personally, based on current circumstances, my guess is that they'll see if Brown can relaunch himself after the summer holidays are over and if not they'll ditch him. Who will stand against him? Miliband certainly. Harriet Harman is very likely. I also expect the left wing will put someone up (John Cruddas, perhaps, based on his deputy leadership bid). There may be one or two surprises too (James Purnell - especially if David Miliband doesn't stand for some reason).

Additional Links
The Times
The Telegraph
BBC: Harman denies planning leadership bid
Labour MP calls for Brown to quit

Labour are a farce,rotten to the bone...along with the conservatives wtih that *average joe* cameronb...or atleast what his PR people make him out to be.. The Uk really has no good governments to vote for...maybe liberals...but they hardly have the vote of the nation.Four years of conservatives...how fun...

Sound words on the note of concern, Ste but I can not see mauch good news around the corner that if I was Gordon Brown I would want to bet my future as PM on. It's not as if there is a "Falklands" floating around.

All the ministers will be in touch with their departments while on their holidays, and if they wanted to they could get a statement out to the press with their support for Gordon Brown. This is a case of they do not want to rather than that can not.

And if you were David Miliband, you would hedge your bets just in case there was a leader election. At least this story is going to add some spice to the summer for the pundits and newspapers

And Lethil, it is either 5 more years of Labour or 5 years of the Tories and I have to agree with you, neither seems an option I would want to hang my hat on but I guess we vote for one of the three parties, do not bother or spoil your ballot paper.

Originally posted by Freedom ERP
Sound words on the note of concern, Ste but I can not see mauch good news around the corner that if I was Gordon Brown I would want to bet my future as PM on. It's not as if there is a "Falklands" floating around.

Nor can I to be honest.

But that's the thing about politics... it's hard to predict. Who says there won't be a Falklands-style event that could turn Brown's fortunes around?

It's an interesting (and accurate) analogy with Thatcher. Before the Falklands she was the most unpopular Prime Minister since polling began. Within a matter of weeks she became the most popular and wiped Labour out in the 1983 election. So who knows what's around the corner.

Of course, such events are rare and Brown simply can't rely on such a thing to get him out of trouble. I maintain that he could still bounce back on his own volition but it would be something very difficult to pull off.

And now two backbench MPs have called for Gordon Brown to sack Miliband over this.

I'm not quite sure whether they're really on Brown's side or they're being opportunist and are hoping for a job if there's a reshuffle in the next couple of months.