McCain up by four (likely voters)

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MCcain up by four (likely voters)

Interesting. The youth vote can be tricky, and Obama is relying on it. This poll was taken after the European tour, and it still shows McCain up. Remember- bad weather is a Republicans best friend, and likely voters vote in icestorms. Seems Obama better prey for sunshine...

In other words there are polls you pay attention to, and polls you don't. This is a poll you pay attention too, for all the reasons I mentioned above.

Is this the first visible crack in Obama's veneer, or just an anomoly? discuss amongst yourselves...

[edit on 28-7-2008 by GD]

I'm not ready to celebrate just yet. The same polling organization (Gallup) has Obama up by 8 in their tracking poll. That's a slight decline from yesterday and may indicate that the bounce is dissipating, but still.

Rasmussen also shows the race tightening, however. Obama had a mere one point lead before the trip. They had him up 6 a couple of days ago just after the Berlin speech, but today? Just 3. They've also shown considerable closing in most of the battleground states in McCain's favor, as has Quinnipiac.

Even the New York Times is asking today Where's the Bounce?

And finally, speaking of the youth vote, I saw another poll earlier today that indicated that there has been a significant dropoff in the number of 18-29 year olds AND Democrats overall who plan to vote this fall compared to earlier this year. Republicans had stayed the same (mid 80% range). I'm trying to find it and will add it when I do.

EDIT: Found it. The poll is from a few days before Obama's trip overseas, but is still recent enough to be valid and shows that Dem enthusiasm was sharply declining, at least prior to his 'world tour.' Specifically, 66% of 18-29 year olds said they were certain to vote in March. That's down to 46% as of mid July. Of course, that age bracket is by far his strongest. He usually ties or loses every other age group.

Poll

So is this poll indicating a McCain lead for real? I think its probably an outlier, especially given that Gallup's own tracking poll conflicts with it. However, and this is a big however....I think the overall data does indicate that something may be happening right now and the race may be turning away from Obama. We'll see.


[edit on 28-7-2008 by vor78]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by vor78]

History tends to repeat itself. Obama is almost where Kerry was (a little worse off) this time in 04.

I want to make it clear on here that once the debates come around McCain will get a solid lead and move on to become president. I'm spreading the word because many people are locked in and some aren't even planning on watching the debates. But believe me a lot of Obama supporters will change their minds.

[edit on 7/28/2008 by AndrewTB]

I predict McCain will win - will be close and by a tight margin.

I also think if he does win, there will be riots like we haven't seen in a long time. You'll see Obamatrons finding someone or something to blame for his loss and that he was "robbed" because he is Black etc.

It will be the most interesting race we have seen yet. There may be some surprises.

Gallup's latest tracking poll is out. Obama led by 9 on Sunday, 8 yesterday. Today? He's down to 6. This follows the trend we're seeing from other polling outfits.

Gallup:Obama ahead 47-41%

As an update Rasmussen, as mentioned had Obama up 6 Sunday and 3% yesterday. He is up only 1% today when 'leaners' are included (4% otherwise).

Rasmussen: Obama ahead 47-46%

Looks like the 'bounce' is already evaporating.

[edit on 29-7-2008 by vor78]

Originally posted by jetxnet
I predict McCain will win - will be close and by a tight margin.

I also think if he does win, there will be riots like we haven't seen in a long time. You'll see Obamatrons finding someone or something to blame for his loss and that he was "robbed" because he is Black etc.

It will be the most interesting race we have seen yet. There may be some surprises.

OMG you know it. I've already pictured it - the "black" churches will be meeting in emergency sessions praying feverishly, singing, preaching against the "damn white people who sabotaged this election" and begging God for direction. TV news will show many congregants crying their eyes out.

There will be some rioting, especially in impoverished minority areas but I don't think they will be "massive" or widespread.

I think the majority of the stink will come from the far left liberals who will be screaming for recounts, filing lawsuits like crazy, calling for investigations and lamenting that the world will certainly end in the next 4 years.

I look for there to be a very large shortage of Budweiser and Coors that night.

reply to post by AndrewTB

I want to make it clear on here that once the debates come around McCain will get a solid lead and move on to become president. I'm spreading the word because many people are locked in and some aren't even planning on watching the debates. But believe me a lot of Obama supporters will change their minds.

There is a reason Obama keeps turning down debate challenges by McCain. You're absolutely right though, Obama will get destroyed.

Those of you saying that the blacks will riot are racist.
Would you say that the whites would riot if Macdaddy lost?
AAHHH...so it is only the blacks that will riot....seee you are a racist pig.

mccain has four likely voters?
well ill be darned...

8 years of the worst president in history representing the republican party is plenty enough to get a democrat in this time.

Don't pay attention to polls, pay attention to how the u.s.a. fell from world prominence, went 10 trillion in debt, and helped jack up fuel prices around the world all the while losing international mortgage companies, and closing banks where americans worked.

Any fool, and I will stress fool, believes a poll in this time of "fudged numbers" and diebold machines.

The media propaganda machine destroyed the only chance of american reform.

So go vote for Obama, at least his Clinton Buddies Ran a good 1990's

-ADHD

One thing about liberals is that they are very vocal, first in line at a rally and first in line to protest. But....when it comes to voting, they fail to show up.

On the other hand you have conservatives....you will never see them at a protest rally, usually keep their views to themselves. But...they are first in line at the polls on election day.

White Guilt works for Obama in polling, but when they get into the voting booth that all changes.

McCain wins....comfortably. Yes...there will be riots.

Originally posted by RRconservative
One thing about liberals is that they are very vocal, first in line at a rally and first in line to protest. But....when it comes to voting, they fail to show up.

On the other hand you have conservatives....you will never see them at a protest rally, usually keep their views to themselves. But...they are first in line at the polls on election day.

White Guilt works for Obama in polling, but when they get into the voting booth that all changes.

McCain wins....comfortably. Yes...there will be riots.

well voting hasnt just happened yet for the presidency so we shall see

for most they are already decided, its a matter of the date set to vote

Originally posted by ADHDsux4me
...
So go vote for Obama, at least his Clinton Buddies Ran a good 1990's

-ADHD

That's the problem. The Democrats should select the Original Clinton, Hillary. Not a "Clinton-wannabe" Obama. His clumsy shift toward the center will result in the Dems losing the Nov. election.

McCain is leading Obama 72%-28% with 14,134 votes cast in this week's AOL Straw Poll.
The lead is lopsided, but usually the lead narrows at the end of the week.

AOL Straw Poll

reply to post by RRconservative


well im conservative and there is no way in hell im voting for juan mccain.
not that im voting for obama either, but im just saying most conservatives couldnt give two poops about mccain.

IT WILL BE WONDERFUL IF MCCAIN WINS...... That way we can add another 5 trillion dollars on to the national debt, we can lose a few more thousand American lives, we can lose a few more hundred thousand jobs over seas, we can borrow a few more trillion from dictators around the world, we can turn around and GIVE that borrowed money TO some dictators around the world, we can further beat down the 1st, 4th, and 5th amendments (for those who know nothing I am referring to the constitution), hmm what else oh yeah we can watch our taxes go higher. Oh and before you flame me youll get the same results with Obama too. So go ahead my little sheeple be happy and rejoice when and if McCain or Obama or anyone in the 2 party crime family wins. Dont complain when you taxes are at 50% to me and you lose your job.

Originally posted by Fathom
Those of you saying that the blacks will riot are racist.
Would you say that the whites would riot if Macdaddy lost?
AAHHH...so it is only the blacks that will riot....seee you are a racist pig.

This is a perfect example of why people are afraid to speak up. Being labeled a racist comes far to easily now a days. Look up the definition my friend.

As I mentioned in an another thread, there are other factors that would also play into rioting. White folks wont riot, maybe protest but not riot. The backgrounds of these fictional rioters also plays a big factor. Were not saying every black person will riot just those looking for a good reason to do so.

There will be a small number of hispanics and whites mixed into that group too.

[edit on 7/29/2008 by AndrewTB]

Up by 4? Ohhh, this is exciting. That means Obama can't tie the game with a field goal, he has to go for a touchdown.

I do agree it will start to separate more after the debates start. I can just see it now "How do you plan to pay for healthcare, by raising taxes?"....."let me sleep on it so i might have another dream" This MLK Jr. knockoff campaign is a travesty and will not fly when he is backed to a corner.

McCain has spent twice as many years as a POW then Obama has as a senator. He was offered a free ride home but let others go in his place... you cant tell me people won't just eat that up.

I do believe there will be riots if Obama loses because he really is more of a pop idol then a politician.


I would like to point out that the "worst president in history" was voted in not once but twice..... lol


PPS: Democratic controlled congress has a approval rating about 10-20% LOWER then Bush...... SHHHH we need a scapegoat

[edit on 1-8-2008 by engenerQ]