McCain up by four (likely voters), page 1

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MCcain up by four (likely voters)

Interesting. The youth vote can be tricky, and Obama is relying on it. This poll was taken after the European tour, and it still shows McCain up. Remember- bad weather is a Republicans best friend, and likely voters vote in icestorms. Seems Obama better prey for sunshine...

In other words there are polls you pay attention to, and polls you don't. This is a poll you pay attention too, for all the reasons I mentioned above.

Is this the first visible crack in Obama's veneer, or just an anomoly? discuss amongst yourselves...

[edit on 28-7-2008 by GD]

I'm not ready to celebrate just yet. The same polling organization (Gallup) has Obama up by 8 in their tracking poll. That's a slight decline from yesterday and may indicate that the bounce is dissipating, but still.

Rasmussen also shows the race tightening, however. Obama had a mere one point lead before the trip. They had him up 6 a couple of days ago just after the Berlin speech, but today? Just 3. They've also shown considerable closing in most of the battleground states in McCain's favor, as has Quinnipiac.

Even the New York Times is asking today Where's the Bounce?

And finally, speaking of the youth vote, I saw another poll earlier today that indicated that there has been a significant dropoff in the number of 18-29 year olds AND Democrats overall who plan to vote this fall compared to earlier this year. Republicans had stayed the same (mid 80% range). I'm trying to find it and will add it when I do.

EDIT: Found it. The poll is from a few days before Obama's trip overseas, but is still recent enough to be valid and shows that Dem enthusiasm was sharply declining, at least prior to his 'world tour.' Specifically, 66% of 18-29 year olds said they were certain to vote in March. That's down to 46% as of mid July. Of course, that age bracket is by far his strongest. He usually ties or loses every other age group.

Poll

So is this poll indicating a McCain lead for real? I think its probably an outlier, especially given that Gallup's own tracking poll conflicts with it. However, and this is a big however....I think the overall data does indicate that something may be happening right now and the race may be turning away from Obama. We'll see.


[edit on 28-7-2008 by vor78]

[edit on 28-7-2008 by vor78]

Gallup's latest tracking poll is out. Obama led by 9 on Sunday, 8 yesterday. Today? He's down to 6. This follows the trend we're seeing from other polling outfits.

Gallup:Obama ahead 47-41%

As an update Rasmussen, as mentioned had Obama up 6 Sunday and 3% yesterday. He is up only 1% today when 'leaners' are included (4% otherwise).

Rasmussen: Obama ahead 47-46%

Looks like the 'bounce' is already evaporating.

[edit on 29-7-2008 by vor78]

reply to post by AndrewTB

---

I want to make it clear on here that once the debates come around McCain will get a solid lead and move on to become president. I'm spreading the word because many people are locked in and some aren't even planning on watching the debates. But believe me a lot of Obama supporters will change their minds.

There is a reason Obama keeps turning down debate challenges by McCain. You're absolutely right though, Obama will get destroyed.

Originally posted by ADHDsux4me
...
So go vote for Obama, at least his Clinton Buddies Ran a good 1990's

-ADHD

That's the problem. The Democrats should select the Original Clinton, Hillary. Not a "Clinton-wannabe" Obama. His clumsy shift toward the center will result in the Dems losing the Nov. election.

McCain is leading Obama 72%-28% with 14,134 votes cast in this week's AOL Straw Poll.
The lead is lopsided, but usually the lead narrows at the end of the week.

AOL Straw Poll

reply to post by RRconservative

---

well im conservative and there is no way in hell im voting for juan mccain.
not that im voting for obama either, but im just saying most conservatives couldnt give two poops about mccain.

IT WILL BE WONDERFUL IF MCCAIN WINS...... That way we can add another 5 trillion dollars on to the national debt, we can lose a few more thousand American lives, we can lose a few more hundred thousand jobs over seas, we can borrow a few more trillion from dictators around the world, we can turn around and GIVE that borrowed money TO some dictators around the world, we can further beat down the 1st, 4th, and 5th amendments (for those who know nothing I am referring to the constitution), hmm what else oh yeah we can watch our taxes go higher. Oh and before you flame me youll get the same results with Obama too. So go ahead my little sheeple be happy and rejoice when and if McCain or Obama or anyone in the 2 party crime family wins. Dont complain when you taxes are at 50% to me and you lose your job.

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