China's big mission is to keep the U.S. outside of the Taiwan warfare,So J-10 is good enough to complete the job.think about how many fighters the U.S. Navy can keep in the air around the Taiwan?

J-10 = f-16, J-10 won't enter service until 2005. Meanwhile, China continues to buy Su-27 and Su-30s to replace outdated fighters.

China and the USA doesn't want war. However, Taiwan is going to cause the USA and China to go to war. Taiwan will eventual declare independence from China and China will invade Taiwan or China will simply invade Taiwan because they no longer want to wait for Taiwan to agree to politically unify with China.

China wants to dominate the Far East and would love for the USA to go home, leave Japan and South Korea. China wants to use its military and economic power to dominate the Far East, the USA is standing in the way.

When China invades Taiwan, we will interfere and demand China leave Taiwan or else "this aggression will not stand" (BUSH Gulf War I). I see parallels between China invades Taiwan and Iraq invades Kuwait (during Gulf War I).

I believe China, as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, to wait about 10 year from now. By then all there old fighters will be replaced by J-10, Su-27(J-11), Su-30. China would also be producing their new J fighter called J-13 or J-14 which would be similar to the new USA F/A-22 Raptor. PLAAN will have refitted all their old warships and build several new ones. China should have at least 1 to 3 aircraft carriers and more sneaky Kilo subs. PLA should have tons of type 98 tanks by then.

China's goal in war with us is simple destroy our USA bases and our battlegroup in Far East. After that sue for peace with the condition that Taiwan becomes part of China.

I am wondering if the USA would agree on those terms or say you must leave Taiwan. China would then say to USA "F U" it is ours. We would send more forces. China would give the green light to N.Korea to attack S.Korea. War would spread to other nations. It would be a real mess.

It doesn't matter if USA has better fighters, ships, etc. China will start producing more planes, tanks, etc., if we don't agree with them keeping Taiwan. Do you think China's leaders care about their own citizens, remember Tinaimen Square, anyone? China would send wave after wave after wave of fighters, tank, infantry at us.

China's goal would be make us sue for peace, thinking USA citizens will say I am sick of our people dying in Asia over Taiwan and Korea. We might sue for peace. I am wondering if the USA and China would use nukes.

Good day gentlemen and ladies(if there are any ladies who are following this thread). This forum started under the auspices of discussion in regards to the merits, potential limitations, combat capabilities and general future deployments of the Chinese J-10 fighter bomber. In reading over the various entries the discussion has entertained the ideas of various senarios under which it might be used in combat. This has included such things as how it might fair in an engagement versus certain other military aircraft including the Lockheed/Boeing F-22 Raptor in a possible heated confrontation between the United States and China. As I read the postings, I couldn't help getting lost in a couple of questions and I thought maybe some of you out there could give me your opinions or ideas on this. Unless I am mistaken, the F-22 is not a VTOL nor is it carrier modified. It is strictly a land based platform, correct? As such, if the J-10 and F-22 were to have to face the possibility of squaring off, my question is this. Under what circumstances and conditions would the U.S. government even consider deploying such an expensive and capable weapon. Specifically, where would we station F-22's and why would we put them there. There are only so many Pacific Rim countries that would even allow the United States to deploy such an aircraft on their soil simply because it would be considered a provocative move- primarily by China. The only place I could come up with was Taiwan, and only then if the Taiwanese really felt threatened with an invasion. Which gets me to my second question, does ANYBODY really believe that Taiwan is both strategically and politically worth risking another "Cuban Missile Crisis" type stand-off and if so, do we really believe that the two governments would let it come to blows. After all, is there any doubt that the Chinese truly think that Taiwan should be incorporated back into mainland control ( for whatever reason, strategic or political). Is there also any doubt that Americans believe that Taiwan should not be Incorporated back into said control unless they freely choose to. As such, to what degree are the opposing view points willing to stand their ground. To the extreme of war? And what of the Taiwanese themselves. Do they really even Value their system of self government to the point that they would ask the United Staes to intervene on their behalf militarily (and invite possible catostrophic collateral damage from a resultant war) to prevent a uninvited takeover by the mainland? Most Importantly, does the Chinese Government believe that there was something to be learned from the American response to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait- if nothing else than as a measure of our resolve to stand up to what we think is important ( NOTE: I did not say "What we believe to be right" There is a difference even though we would prefer the two to be mutually inclusive). I think it comes down to whether China believes that the potential return on a successful occupation of Taiwan is worth taking the risk of underestimating American fortitude. Other countries have done it before but never a country the scale of China. And maybe that's the real danger. If the establishment of the PLA convinces the leadership in Beijing that America is too afraid of war with China to come to Taipei's aid then we might just see a confrontation after all ( remember what the Tojo military did to the Hirohito Government). The problem is that if both sides believe they are right and become intrenched in their respective concepts of what would represent an acceptable resolution to the conflict, then the conflict enviroment worsens in the direction of a possible nuclear exchange. (Does any one know if the J-10 is designed to be Nuclear capable?). I know that there are people from all over the world- including China- that take part in this forum. The issue of J-10 versus whatever is only a small part of an even greater platform and I would be interested in hearing your thoughts on this.

Unless your talking about a situation where both planes are out of medium range missles, you basicly have a situation based on the different types of missles each plane is carrying. Assumming the Chinese PL-12 actually works about 85% of the time, with a max range of 50 miles, the US would still have a huge advantage with the AIM-120C9 AMRAAM. The C9 has a max range of about 100nm with a 100% kill rating. The F-22 can hold upto 10 of these, sneak up on a group of J-10s (say within 50 miles), fire a volly of 120's and high tail it out of the J-10s' max range (again 50 miles) before they even see the F-22.
However, if a pair of F-22's are trying to sneak behind an Air Defense Network for a bomb run, they could be discovered, and in this case, their speed may not save them from charging J-10's, especially if they are loaded for a bomb run. So if air superiority is still in question, the F-22's will probably be loaded with tons of 120C's, other planes capable of hitting opening targets would probably be tasked for the job (escorted by the F-22's).
Having an air superiority fighter like the F-22 with stealth technology is a huge advantage because it allows the US to operate over a functioning air defense network. If the F-117's have trouble with the high altitude SAM's (or there are just too many), the F-22's could take some of those critical targets.
Air Defense Networks are like puzzels. You have to take them down in the right order to avoid the teeth of the system. Planes are just a small part of an overall defensive scheme. Planes are a very mobile and distracting part of the system that can be used to lure enemy planes into SAM traps. A particularly tough problem of an air defense network is the multiple layers of silent (not turned on) radar/missle systems. Anti-radiation missles cannot home in on something that isn't turned on. So a game of cat and mouse ensues, except the mouse can kill the cat, and there is always another mouse hiding somewhere. Degrading an air defense network is a long hard and patient job. Stealth makes that job a lot safer for our fly boys.

You mean to say the AIM-120C9 AMRAAM never misses what you aim it at?
Do you really believe this?

Its possible they neva miss, but knowing the US govt, im not here to bag the us govt, but even if they missed the target, chances of us finding out are slim

If you fire one missile and it hits the target then you have a 100% kill ratio. Over any length of time, with more and more launches, especially in a combat scenario, a 100% kill ratio is impossible.

Originally posted by ssiebern
China and the USA doesn't want war.

- Hmm, great start, that's reassuring.

However, Taiwan is going to cause the USA and China to go to war. Taiwan will eventual declare independence from China and China will invade Taiwan or China will simply invade Taiwan because they no longer want to wait for Taiwan to agree to politically unify with China.

- Uh oh. So you foresee a nuclear war (which is bound to escalate no matter what the fantasists say they believe) because China wants back a part of China?

China wants to dominate the Far East

- China already 'dominates' the far east, check out any map.

and would love for the USA to go home

- I don't really think so, they each trade so much with the other. Mind you it might help if the USA stopped acting like they have a unilateral right to a say in everybody elses' business.

IMO the international community is the way to go not acting alone and giving everyone else the finger.

China wants to use its military and economic power to dominate the Far East, the USA is standing in the way.

- Funny, I don't remember China doing very much on the military side of things lately, whereas the US...................

I am wondering if the USA and China would use nukes.

- If they were really that insane I suppose it's a possibility.

Originally posted by mad scientist
Hey they only have 2 and they are constantly tailed by US SSN's. The JL-2 missile they use is crappy and inaccurate. To think of MAD when referring to China is ridiculous. They don't have the hardware to destroy the US, even if every one of there missiles was launched.

so how accurate does a nuclear warhead have to be.the country does not have to be blasted off the face of the earth.a few well placed or even lucky air bursts would make the continent uninhabitable for years.we(canadian navy)track american subs all the time too,that doesnt mean we could stop them from launching an attack.international waters are pretty close to the coast line of any country.just remember your most dangerous enemy is not the one with anything to gain,its the one with nothing to lose.9\11 wasnt supposed to happen either was it, but it did and there was nothing america with its tech could do about it.son, never say never.

Sharp teeth... ha! If you believe even one of the U.S. military based conspiracies found on this site, then you probably also believe that the U.S. is further ahead of the rest of the world than most can even imagine.

With the Paranoia the US has developed since 9/11 I think they find it comforting to believe that.

The US is faaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrr ahead in aviation and naval technology. You can't deny that. No one else can make a B-2 or Raptor or Seawolf or Supercarrier.

Thats not to say that the US is the best at everything, just most things.

As far as Taiwan goes, China can't do crap for another 15 years, so let's wait 10 or so and then talk.

Nobody else wants to spend the money trying to.

If a leaky Chilean Oberon can simulate hits on a US flattop, and a RAN Collins can take them out on more than one ex (and with a third of the screen too), then I think China would happily give up a Kilo to do it.

In the US even reports by USN sub skippers of successful attacks on the CV inside the screen have been surpressed or dismissed as aberrations.

One USS sub driver scored six hits on a US carrier and was congratulated...for reducing its effectiveness by 2%!!

I think a USAF General could be just as dellusional as a USN Admiral about the invincibility of thier pet programs.

The US might get dragged into a war with China over Taiwan (and a few of us besides), and China might be prepared to trade a lot of low tech losses for some precious unaffordable few losses by the US. It might even drag in NK but I think it wouldnt go Nuclear unless the US got frustrated and fired first. As to nothing to fear from China if they did, apart from the paranoia the blind faith is astounding. One the new ABMs are not foolproof. two if even one or two warheads got through I don't think the several million folks in Seattle or San Fransisco would be too happy.

More likely it would end in a frustrated stand off with China backing off with the US with some riddiculous claims about respective losses proving the winner. Taiwan would fill in the craters get back to business, and China would quietly shut up and never risk her economy like that again, while the US would wonder yet again why do we bother.

and the Aussie Collins and Canadian Upholders would wrack up a tally of Chinese surface tonnage and the odd sub.

An F-22 could fly out of Guam like the bombers refuel over japan, fight near taiwan, return to refuel, repeat untill an amount of time that it would return to guam when the pilot would hop out with the engines on, another pilot jump in, refuel and (if necessary) rearm and then repeat. this could go on for an indefinite time, with one under goin maintenance for every two in the air so occasionally they would cycle so one could be repaired. This makes maximum use of the numbers of Raptors. also I think that China's pressre on Taiwan is a bluff and more for prestige, they really dont have a significant enough amphibious assault force to invade. I think that china is in the state like the USSR was before glastnost, there only needs to be a Gorbechev to spark a revolution in the political and economic sections of the country.

Uh.....I think the Chinese have seen whats happened to the former Soviet state and for that matter the former Yugoslavia. They will put thier faith in competent hardliners.

Besides China is a unique Communist state. It out capitals the capitalists. Whilst most of the people still live in the country, more and more cities are becoming westernised.

The interesting thing seems to be that the growing middle class appear to be indifferent to Western style democracy and liberalisation. As long as the communist leaders are smart enough to grow the GNP/GDP (sorry I get confused about the term) its not an issue to them if they have a choice between candidates Po or Mo.

While this schitzo thing of being major trading partners yet denouncing each others political philosphies continues, war by accident is the most likely outcome. Oh Crud, I shot him down. Oh Buddha you'd think a US Frigate would stay out of a live fire area......Lets try and nip this in the bud.

But breaking the hem around the China Sea they are in is an issue for them. If ever they do achieve the means of doing so, or if there is some radical shift in US policy that actually does bottle them up so to speak then a war becomes more likely.

I know we are supposed to try hard to avoid it, and I know all the PR stuff from the manufacturers and USAF, and stock supremacy views about it, but I really wonder if it came to push and shove, if the PLA-F and PLA-N Airpower wouldnt give the US a bloody nose in a stand-up conventional fight with its J-10s and Flankers, just like the Japanese did initially in 1941-42.

History tends to repeat itself especially when we start talking like we rule the world....on the eve of getting our butts kicked.

As a Taiwanese, here is my opinon on the topic:

1) If reunification is a must, then you, china, had better believe that you have to reform to a similar system to Taiwan or the United States. NOBODY is going to block google.com from me. NOBODY is going to take away my home and then build a dam or olympic stadium on top of it to only pay me 100 RMB as compensation. NOBODY is going to shoot me in the head or jail me for 10 years for speaking ill about the goverment. I can stand right here in Taiwan and say "I hate Chen Sui Bian" and I WILL NOT be arrested. That is FREEDOM.

I am not against Re-unification. I am against Re-unification with an Authoritarian government.

2) In the posts I often read: Well, let the chinese people all vote. That gives China the majority 98% Yes on reunification. DUH. Well, how about this? Since chinese in china cannot vote for their president, hell, they can't even vote in a beauty pagent most likely, why don't you let the people of Taiwan vote. Hmmm.... Novel idea. Afterall, we are already use to the "process" of voting. We don't want to teach ALL chinese people "what" voting is and "how" to do it. Takes too much time and under the Authoritarian government, they wouldn't understand the concept.

3) You claim that you are liberating us? From what?! Are you people mentally capable of fathoming the fact that people on Taiwan are HAPPY??? We are not kept in a "cage" as china calls it, like prisoners. Hell, people from CHINA are trying to emmigrate TO TAIWAN. There is a waiting LIST! Now, I don't know what kind of cage that is but sure sounds like a good one to be in if people in china are trying to emmigrate to "the cage." Maybe we have some fun stuff over here huh? You bet. We can start with freedom of speech.

4) Many chinese deny that Taiwan has a "government." Okay, I don't want to argue with cretins so I'll call the "goverment" a "bunch of people running around." Now the "bunch of people running around" have created one of the most prosperous economies not to mention democracy in Asia. The envy of many Asian neighbors. For a "bunch of people running around" on a small island, I would say, that's not bad at all.

5) You say you want to reunify peacefully yet you shoot missles over our heads. Hmmmm..... Don't have to be socrates or a rocket scientist to know that a "threat missle" is mutually exclusive to peace.

6) I have heard the "Let China take Taiwan" argument. Who cares? It doesn't affect me! You will when you go to your local U.S. Best Buy to purchase electronics and that $600.00 HP computer is suddenly $4,000.00. Why? Oh because Taiwan manufactures the majority of computer components for Televisions, Electronics in general and Computers. So why is the computer so much?! Well, the factory that makes the motherboard has been bombed. Thus, they can't ship the motherboards to HP. Thus, HP doesn't know when they can complete production of the comptuers so the ones that are out now, we'll just jack up the price. Don't get me started on LCD, Plasmas, Digital Cameras, etc... Sony, GE, Toshiba, Samsung, whatever, they all have components from Taiwan. Oh and if the Taiex (Taiwan stock exchange) goes down, that WILL affect the economies of the world. One thing Americans hate is HIGH PRICES, like the rest of the free world.

Enough ranting... I'm going to get on google.com to search for stuff.... can you do that? If you can, your not in China =)

Oh by the way the PRC BANNED doreamon... HAHA a cute little cartoon featuring a blue robotic cat with a propellor on his head. It's EVIL. HAHAHAH. Time for the Chairman Mao's learning hour children. Featuring.... The dancing little red book! Yeah!!!

Originally posted by selarius
You mean to say the AIM-120C9 AMRAAM never misses what you aim it at?
Do you really believe this?

I believe that it is actually 93% hit rate. Basically, more then 9 out of 10 times