China Release New Fighter. The J-10.

Again Americans under estimating their opponent.
Do you remember the Vietnam War or maybe the Korean War?
Today's war is totally different I know, though the difference in technology from the USA to the next nation is still the same as it was back then.
All I'm asking is that you be open minded in the way you think a potential opponent.
The way to think is not 'Yep..... Um were the best and thatís it. No 2 ways about it!'
Again I repeat, We all know that the F-22 is probably the best fighter in the world, though we all know also that beuroctatic bulls@#t gets in the way of things like the F-22. This aircraft costs US $100 million a pop! Think guys, is the US Government going to build the F-22 at US $100 m or the JSF at US $30m? The US Government has already secured backing for the JSF project from other countries wanting to get involved. Eg. Britain, Italy, Australia etc.
It's totally unviable to build an aircraft of that price!

I don't doubt a J10 is inferior to an F22. But if they we're made in large numbers they could pose a danger in an attack role: Let's say a thousand of them taking off from mainland China to attack the US Pacific fleet and Taiwan. Mass numbers would matter in such a hypothetical situation - that's what I find worrisome.

Exactly!
Don't get me wrong I'm not under mining the US or its Allies in any way because were not stupid. Though we must not under any circumstances under estimate our opponent!
Remember that China posses 1 thing that the rest of the world doesn't. Mass man Power! Thatís scary just thinking what they can achieve with such a large population.
The more likely scenario if hyper thetically speaking would be the JSF vs. the J-10.

A good fictional book deals with these massive Chinese numbers. The book is INVASION by Eric L Harry.

external image

It's not long from now but the world is very different.
When the Chinese dragon woke from her thousand-year sleep to bend Southeast Asia ruthlessly to her will, it was only the culmination of every half-decent intelligence analyst's prediction. Thus the complacent Western powers turned a blind eye to this rampant expansionism, and defence spending continued to dwindle all over the free world. Only when the Middle East was swiftly conquered by the resurgent Chinese forces, Israel brutally put down and Tel Aviv razed by nuclear power, did America and her allies realise the true dangers of their isolationist stance. But it was too lateÖ A combined European fleet was swiftly cornered and annihilated by the massed Chinese super-carriers in the straits of Gibraltar, leaving a besieged Europe.
Now a dazed United States of America sits and waits for the next moveÖ
InvasionÖ

INVASION

He has also written 2 other excellent books on modern war :

ARC LIGHT and PROTECT AND DEFEND

[Edited on 14-1-2003 by mad scientist]

Well I still think that in a large air battle the US would still win. Like you said the main source of radar for the J-10 is ground to air. In this day of age thats easily blocked. There is also a possiblity that the enemy would win. Me and my friend have been debating this subjuect for the past 30 minutes. But what I'm saying is that It is easier saying that a mass production could destroy anything. Look at Germany and the whole Blitz Krieg strategy, and lets not forget the battle of valley forge. It doesn't always matter about quantity, but like i said strategy, skill, and technology play founding roles in winning a war.

The airpower of the USA isn't impressed with a backwards C2 system used to control the "many" Chinese planes. Flying blind with no C2 against planes that don't even show up on radar (F-22s) is a suicide mission. Bring them on...

Heck, the Navy P-3 Orion pilot took one of those crazy Chinese pilots down a few years ago with a bump and run tactic.

The airpower of the USA isn't impressed with a backwards C2 system used to control the "many" Chinese planes. Flying blind with no C2 against planes that don't even show up on radar (F-22s) is a suicide mission. Bring them on...

Heck, the Navy P-3 Orion pilot took one of those crazy Chinese pilots down a few years ago with a bump and run tactic.

yall should read "invasion" it's a really good book, i read it a couple years ago (and a few times since) it's my favorite book, excellent read

I think a full war between China and the United States could not be won, we would kick their ass and destroy their Navy and Air Force, but we would never be able to land on their coast or defeat them on the ground

But i also think that in 20 or so years it will be a problem, China is developing fast (at a faster speed then we are, so in a few decades or so we will be matched in Technology and unless we are careful, they will be the sole superpower, and rule the world

One example could be in the Second World War when Germany went to war with Russia.
Stalin's Russia had twice as many troops as Hitler's Germany. Even though the Germans did advance so far in as 30 km from Moscow they did not sustain the constant bombardment of New, Fresh Russian troops. The Russians lost the most men in WW2.
This could also apply in this scenario with China.

the same thing could be said of the American's versus the Germans in WW2, the Germans (especially tanks) were definetly the best on the ground in WW2, but we just had alot more stuff

The Russian winter and fighting on too many fronts were the reasons why the Nazis failed in WWII. The Nazis bit off too much too soon instead of slowly overtaking their objectives.

If we get into a fight with China, it will be our main focus. I don't seem to recall us being like the Nazis trying to take on the WORLD...

Well my friend MT69 that point could be debated too. Maybe not Militarilly but Economically!!
But yes you are right about the Germans in WW2 starting their offensive too late and it did drag and bogg down the German offensive though I was talking about a spacific Battle. The Battle for Stalingrad! Are you familiar about it?

China is developing at a faster pace, only because they are catching up on technologies already pioneered by the USA. American military technology is the cutting edge, and when exploring the unexplored, there are bound to be obstacles.
The question is, can China produce something revolutionary like the US regularly does.

There isn't much information on this :

Besides carrying on with the improvement of the J-8 series and the licensed production of the Su-27, the Shenyang Aircraft Company (SAC) is now engaged in preliminary research for the "No. 12" project for the development of the Chinese Air Force's main fighter aircraft for the 21st century. Also known as the "XXJ," this fifth generation PLAAF fighter, is currently projected to enter service in the 2013-2015 timeframe. The aircraft is projected to have a crew of two, is anticipated to be in same class as US F-22 fighter, probably based on significant Russian technical assistance.
The J-12 designation was apparently previously applied to an aircraft built at Nanchang in the late 1970s, with only one or two airframes being constructed prior to the program's cancellation. Said to resemble a scaled-up MiG-15/17, it was in competition with the J-7 and J-8, though with a less robust weapon system.

FAS link

Look the entire thing is the fact that tatically, economically, weaponry, or anything that China is inferior to the US. Don't get me wrong I am not saying that Americans are better than China, and you can play all the what if's but the only chance that China could defeat us is with Nuclear weapons, but we all know that they wouldn't do that.(Let's Hope NOT!! the last thing we need is a global nuclear winter.) China right now isn't ready to fight any kind of war. Economically they can barely cover themselves and since their communistic ways they aren't doing anything but to hurt themselves. Technologically speaking they are no further advanced than anyone else. Like Mt69 said they can't produce anything that will revolutionize the way things are done, basically b/c they don't have the money to do it. When you talk about turning all there factorys to mass produce J-10.
1. They don't have the money. They have the raw resources but money wise they're about as poor as your local squater.
2. Even if they do produce a mass amount it would be like shooting fish in a barrel. A plane with radar is like flying blind. You might as well just fly your plane straight to the ground and save our ammunition.
There is always the possibility that they could win. you should always prepare for the worse and not be full of yourself, but the fact that they would actually win is very slight.

Once again I mean no prejudice or racisim.(Ever since one of my English papers when I write certain things I am forced to put a disclosure on ceratin things b/c of the fact that they might sound Anarchist or prejudice or one of the many Political Incorrect things. GGGRRrrrrr David GGRRRRR)

I think that we severley underestemate China as a super power.
I am a realist and consider my options at all times and study something carefully before I make rash decisions or comments.
Were missing something here, somewhere.
1.3 Billion Population!(1/4 of the worlds population).
Super Power or not?

1.3 billion people so what. It seems king you should study up on the operational aspects of warfare.It would be a turkey shoot for the US. There biggest problem would be logistics, not the size of Chinese forces.

A war against China is a MAD thing.

...and yeah I say MAD, not mad thing.

Mutually Assured Destruction.

...or are you all forgotting Chinese SSBNs?

You'll better forget the idea.

[Edited on 2003-1-22 by MakodFilu]

There submarines are crap and US SSN's regularly follow their SSBN's as they are so noisy. If it came to war they would be the first Chinese assets taken out, and probably quite easily.