(update)With Unexpected Iraqi Withdrawal Demand, Bush Has Lost the War

Hard Talk BBC Robert Baer, Mid East Expert (Iran/Iraq)

news.bbc.co.uk

He says America is slowly facing up to the truth that Iran is a regional superpower..

I believe this is just breaking.

(visit the link for the full news article)

OK I AM STILL ON THIS.....Robert Baer on BBC Hardtalk is not ready yet but here is the first headline out of the MSM....as above.

Link to New website:www.alternet.org...





Related News Links:
www.bbc.co.uk

[edit on 21-7-2008 by whiteraven]

Watch the video. The link is below. They have not loaded it yet as it just went live.

Simply stunning. This is or was just on BBC Hard Talk.

What Baer had to say made my mouth drop.

I believe he basicly said that the US had lost the Iraq war to Iran.

He went on to say that we can not hold Iraq with British and American troops for much longer and that Iran will simply absorb Iraq.

He called Iran a "The MiddleEast Superpower".

A must see. I TIVOed the interview.
It should post soon on the link below.

news.bbc.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)


Robert Baer was the CIA Middle East top dog for a while.



[edit on 21-7-2008 by whiteraven]

Why is it that bbc news links are only availible to uk residents?
I bet it has something to do with propaganda rights between nations

reply to post by foremanator


I am trying to find the Hard Talk BBC interview on Google or Youtube.

I only have a few minutes and then I need to do some more work.

Maybe somebody in the UK can help make the video available for us at ATS.



[edit on 21-7-2008 by whiteraven]

Originally posted by whiteraven
I believe he basicly said that the US had lost the Iraq war to Iran.

He went on to say that we can not hold Iraq with British and American troops for much longer and that Iran will simply absorb Iraq.

I think he is totally wrong about Iran being some sort of a ME superpower and that the U.S. has lost the Iraq war to Iran.

However, some of his points validates what the U.S. has been saying about Iran. Things such as how Iran is interfering with Iraq by providing men, money and arms to the terrorists. So this supports the U.S. case that Iran must be stopped.

What does that mean? Iran a super power? How can Iran be a super power? I dont doubt it, I'm just surprised to hear it like that. So it says that Iran will end up with Iraq? If Iran was a super power wouldnt it be easier for them to take care Israel, since they hate them. Thats scary to me.

Things are at a stalemate in my opionion.

Robert Baer used to be the USA inside man.

I try to follow his comments on the middle east as he used to be the Chief CIA Middle East guy.

He knows the players in a very personal way and he has lost two or three operitives that I am aware of to the hands of Iran.

He comments on how Iran is considered to be on the verge of a Western revoloution by many in goverment now but he believes they are dead wrong.

I will continue to search for the video.

reply to post by WhatTheory


This guy is red, white and blue. I wonder why the public change in rhetoric?

What would be the purpose of him saying this on the BBC Hardtalk program?
Is this a "false flag" truce??

He brought up the old Persian/Arab rift as well as the rift in Islam.

He said that Iran's trump card is of course oil which would bring the Western world into a "depresion"..and he said "depresion"if the price spiked higher in view of coming conflict.

He said if they wanted to start WW3 they had the ability...via Bio/chem weapons to Israel!

edit below...If you read this article and can watch BBC Hardtalk with Robert Baer, former CIA, then you can begin to see the underpin of Baer view of the evolving situation in the MI.
[quote]
The two strongly pro-Iranian Shiite factions supporting the regime in Baghdad, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and al-Maliki's own Dawa Party, were under strong pressure from both Iran and their own Shiite population and from Shiite clerics, including Ayatollah Ali Sistani, to demand U.S. withdrawal.


Also....word of mouth from some UK friends... prevailing attitude seems to be attack now or face a far worse scenario 10 years from now?!!!??

This is getting steamy.



[edit on 21-7-2008 by whiteraven]

Originally posted by whiteraven
He said that Iran's trump card is of course oil which would bring the Western world into a "depresion"..and he said "depresion"if the price spiked higher in view of coming conflict.

I'm really not sure this is correct because the U.S. imports only 40% of it's oil from the ME.

He said if they wanted to start WW3 they had the ability...via Bio/chem weapons to Israel!

I really don't think Iran would do this because while Iran is run by crazy lunatics, they are not stupid. If Iran would ever use bio/chem weapons against Israel, Iran would cease to exist and I'm sure they know it also.

[edit on 21-7-2008 by WhatTheory]

reply to post by WhatTheory


I dunno, I think thats exactly what happened.

the #tes have gained control of baghdad, pushing all the sunni's out.
that for me spells an iran victory.

Al Sadr attacks at will, and the only reason there's a lull in attacks atm, is because he ordered such, and we all know he goes back and forth between Iran and Iraq, again another Iranian victory.

Oil's current price is making Iran richer and bigger by the minute too...

Iran seems to be progressing as they please on their nuclear work, and the sanctions placed on them are void, simply because oil profits fill the gap, another iranian point.

Iran has managed to bolster Hezbollah and Hamas, due to Israels infractions, at the same time its securing its own borders with russian tech, another iranian victory.


As for the US?

Their army in Iraq is deteriorating, either due to significant use in the field or constant attacks.

Their economy is flailing back home, because supporting and supplying such a large action across the globe costs..

Public backing and confidence in America has drastically diminished

America still hasnt removed the violence from Iraq, they simply sit back and hope Al Sadr continue's his cease fire

As for Iran being a superpower?

Their big in land size, with a massive army.
They are buying up sophisticated Russian tech
They are making bucket loads of money
they are becoming nuclear
and they have been going eye to eye with the USA for a few years now, and still are coming out on top.

Im pretty sure they are the regional superpower, and im pretty sure they finished in better position than we did in Iraq.

I really don't think Iran would do this because while Iran is run by crazy lunatics, they are not stupid. If Iran would ever use bio/chem weapons against Israel, Iran would cease to exist and I'm sure they know it also.

Right. This was part of his arguement. You are right.

This is exactly what Baer said......they are not crazy people...neither is Israel or the USA...but in light of the recent changes we are being "forced" to withdraw, and in view of many in the know we have lost Iraq. (this made me sick as I watched the interview....I am not saying I fully agree...this is Robert Baer's view)

Robert Baer, CIA, said that while he considers Ahmadinejad to be Bi-Polar..and thats his quote.. Iran is run via a Islamic "politburo".

The Iranian "politburo" has negotiated with Iraq casing a"forced" withdraw of Britain and now America.

The al-Maliki regime began to apply the new Iranian strategy immediately. On May 10, al-Maliki and Sadr reached an accord on Sadr City, where pitched battles were being fought between U.S. troops and the Sadrists

YOU need to see the BBC Hardtalk interview and read the article.

I am not saying this is the end of the story...this is just breaking.

I am waiting for the Western press to pick up the story.

If you can you need to see the BBC Hardtalk interview with Robert Baer.

[edit on 21-7-2008 by whiteraven]

Sounds like the guy is pleading with the US not to strike Iran. The initial limited Blockade of Iran will begin in two weeks. It is an Act of War and Iran might not wait for a further escalation.

Originally posted by WhatTheory

However, some of his points validates what the U.S. has been saying about Iran. Things such as how Iran is interfering with Iraq by providing men, money and arms to the terrorists. So this supports the U.S. case that Iran must be stopped.

And the US is not interfering with Iraq?

You lot started this bloody mess in the first place. If you had not gone in on the talk of Weapons of Mass Distraction, we would not have Iran doing the things that the US are claiming they are doing.

This is beginning to remind me of the Cuban Missle Crisis.

We do not know what is on the ground. We have some very good ideas. But we do not "know" yet.

Baer does not believe that Iran has a nuclear bomb.

Robert Baer does not believe that they will develop the bomb soon.

What he sees is the end game of the Iraq war and the grab for control of the Middle East.

Unless we decide to stay in Iraq like/as we styed in Germany/Japan/South Korea...then Baer sees little hope.

Our best move would be to contain Iran. This is the least that we need to do..imo.

The Saudi's will be face to face with their old enemy... The Persians.

Israel will have the Persians breathing down their neck.

Russia has embeddded their interests in Iran....complete with flyovers!

This is getting to be very dicey...aka ..Cuban Missle Crisis.

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
the #tes have gained control of baghdad, pushing all the sunni's out.
that for me spells an iran victory.

I don't think your assumption is correct.

Al Sadr attacks at will, and the only reason there's a lull in attacks atm, is because he ordered such, and we all know he goes back and forth between Iran and Iraq, again another Iranian victory.

Again, this is your opinion and not fact. It's a spin.

Oil's current price is making Iran richer and bigger by the minute too...

True, but they will be in a world of hurt with no money from oil if the U.S. should put a oil embargo on Iran because of a war.

Iran seems to be progressing as they please on their nuclear work, and the sanctions placed on them are void, simply because oil profits fill the gap, another iranian point.

This is not a point because Iran will NEVER be allowed to have a nuke.

As for the US?

Their army in Iraq is deteriorating, either due to significant use in the field or constant attacks.

Again, this is your spin. There is no evidence to support your case. In fact, you are contradicting yourslef. Earlier you said Al Sadr has personally made a decision to stop attacks yet here you say it's because of attacks. Come on, you can't have it both ways.

Their economy is flailing back home, because supporting and supplying such a large action across the globe costs..

Again, this is your incorrect interpretation of events. Yes, the economy is a little slow but NOT in a recession. This slowdown is NOT because of the war, it's because of greedy banks giving loans they knew they should have.

Im pretty sure they are the regional superpower, and im pretty sure they finished in better position than we did in Iraq.

I'm pretty sure most of your spin is inaccurate and just that, spin!

Anyway, given what you just stated, I'm glad you agree with American that Iran is funding and providing support for terrorist groups in Iraq by providing money, arms and men.

This only validates reasons why Iran should and will be stopped. You do realize that Iran will cease to exit if they push to far right? Diplomacy and being slimy, as Iran is, will mean nothing when the bombs start falling. God forbid Iran strikes back with unconventional weapons because they will pay the ultimate price. I believe they are smart enough to know this.

What Theory

This only validates reasons why Iran should and will be stopped. You do realize that Iran will cease to exit if they push to far right? Diplomacy and being slimy, as Iran is, will mean nothing when the bombs start falling. God forbid Iran strikes back with unconventional weapons because they will pay the ultimate price. I believe they are smart enough to know this.

(


This is now pushed beyond slimy and such.

My mouth went dry when I listened to Baer.

Have you read the entire two page article yet?

Have you been able to find the vid...I have it on TIVO but I cannot access the UK BBC HARDTALK video becasue I am not in the UK.

In my opinion, unless something dramaticly changes Iraq seems to have backed us into a corner.

Also...I mentioned the Cuban Missle Crisis...

Look at this thread:www.abovetopsecret.com...

Russia is suspected of moving weapons to Cuba???

I think Iran has the bomb.
America got it so wrong in Cuba, beliving the russians had X amount of weapons, and it would take X amount of weeks to prepare..
turns out they had many more, that were primed and ready.

just goes to show that you can never be sure on your intel, and when your dealing with nuclear weapons I fear you need to be.

If all they need is the refined materials, that isnt hard to come by,
especially when Nkorea 'has it', south Africa 'had' it, America has 'lost it' and they are 'making it'

honestly I think a nuclear Iran is nessecary, because as it stands America, until its dumb adventure in Iraq, was the only nation who would use the threat of obliteration to fend off most of the worlds attrocities.

... accept Israel, America sat side by side as israel sought revenge for the Nazi's terror on its neighbours...

Maybe now Iran can ensure Lebanon and Palestine get what they deserve... a fair go!

reply to post by WhatTheory


Think what you like, but my assumption is correct
See below:



Remember all the death threats in the post, hung on doors, all the kidnappings and murders?
That was the #tes pushing the sunni's out of Baghdad..

Alsadr #tes, the same Alsadr that goes between Iran and Iraq.

So, my assumption is actually correct.

Shiites ( Iran backed Alsadr ) have won control of Baghdad



As for the Iranian brokered ceasefire?

(Newser) – Iran played a key role in convincing Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to call a ceasefire in Basra yesterday, CNN reports. Iraqi lawmakers from five Shiite parties travelled to Iran on Friday to meet with al-Sadr, and returned yesterday, right before al-Sadr's injunction to halt violence in Basra, an Iraqi official said.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iran was integral in persuading Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to halt attacks by his militia on Iraqi security forces, an Iraqi lawmaker said Monday.

Police commandos take part in a demonstration Monday supporting Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Basra.

1 of 3 Haidar al-Abadi, a member of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, said Iraqi Shiite lawmakers travelled Friday to Iran to meet with al-Sadr. They returned Sunday, the day al-Sadr told his Mehdi Army fighters to stand down.

And it's true that much of the decrease is the result of Muqtada al Sadr ordering a stop to the "execution-style killings carried out by so-called sectarian death squads" in Baghdad. But that order came 6 months before the cease fire he announced in August. When he gave that order in February of 2007, execution-style killings of Sunni males in Baghdad immediately dropped by 50%.

So Iran convinces Al Sadr to hold a 6 month cease fire, which brings a 50% reduction in male deaths.

The blue bars depict the year 2006, which is when Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army went on rampage in Baghdad. Virtually all of these victims were Sunni males whose bodies were taken to the Baghdad morgue. In February of 2007, the first of the troop-surge reinforcements (opposed by Obama but supported by McCain) began to arrive in Baghdad. In that month, Muqtada al Sadr called off his dogs (the ones he had control of, anyway). Look at the number of execution-style killings in February of 2007. It is down by about 50% compared to the prior 6 months or so. That's because al Sadr decided to cooperate with the troop surge, as was widely reported at the time.

True, but they will be in a world of hurt with no money from oil if the U.S. should put a oil embargo on Iran because of a war.

The US would practically slit its own throat placing an oil embargo on Iran,
The economy shudders at the current levels, imagine what would happen then?

No, if we went in, first priority is to secure oil flow, even before we secure troop safety.

This is not a point because Iran will NEVER be allowed to have a nuke.

Like Nkorea was never going to ?
What exactly can we do, short of nuclear war, to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons?
Who are we, to decide who can research what?

A World with a nuclear Iran, is better than a world with a fascist America.

Again, this is your incorrect interpretation of events. Yes, the economy is a little slow but NOT in a recession. This slowdown is NOT because of the war, it's because of greedy banks giving loans they knew they should have.

Your an utter fool if you honestly cant see the writing on the wall regarding the US economy, and the US $.

Its over, and your doing nothing but aiding the government if you keep drivelling on about technicalities.

'' we are not in recession ''

The worlds changed, you cannot gauge a 2008' economy on a 1920's system...

I'm pretty sure most of your spin is inaccurate and just that, spin!

I seem to have backed up my ''assuming spin'' with links and graphs..

So, be kind enough to show me how

Iran has NOT taken Baghdad
how Iran is NOT a regional superpower
and how America has won victory in Iraq...

The only victory America got was the victory for this wars backers..


the prize:



the profiteers



and the enemy combatants

Thank You Chop for your post.

I had no idea that the Sheites had gained so much power over Baghdad.

The wedge that Iran brought in via the Iranian Islamic politburo with their persons on the ground in Baghdad is stunning.

What were we thinking?

Get the oil...forget about the people???

This is how we lost Viet Nam......placing our priority on "hard" objectives rather than slowly winning over the populace.

reply to post by Agit8dChop

Look, it's still spin, assumptions and opinions.
For example, the maps you had only show Baghdad and NOT Iraq as a whole.
Oh, and the pictures of children. Please, come on, what are you trying to prove with that propaganda? Those pictures prove what? Nothing!
Are you suggesting that U.S. troops and allied forces are intentionally capturing or killing civilians?

Sorry, but you have proved nothing.