The Economic Outlook - Who to Believe?

reply to post by semperfortis


Anyone up for the Amero?

One of them's a glass half full kind of guy.

The other is an EXPERT ON THE ECONOMY.

LOL @ Jon Stewart

Of course we will pull out of it. The gov took the time after 9-11 crash to put in a system that will freeze the markets in case of mass panic. I for one love this. I am getting stock in good companies for 1/3 what I should be paying. Invest long term.

The fact that you are trying to build a foundation based off of what you watch on television, is horrendous. If you want real information, you need to exercise due diligence and spend a lot of time on investment and trading forums.

Market Ticker Forum

Here is a fantastic forum to start with.

Naked Capitalism

Mish's Global Economic Trends

Great blogs to wet your whistle.

Originally posted by Open_Minded Skeptic

And oh yeah... salary has not gone up.

So why would your salary have gone up? Have you added more value to other people's lives?

You've uncovered the real problem. People have grown up with an entitlement mentality in which they think they can keep doing the same thing year after year and somehow their financial life should get better and better. it doesn't work this way.

And the bottom line is really simple. I don't care how much your food costs, gas costs, etc., went up. If you have less disposable income that means you'll spend less on entertainment. Big deal. Our economic "crisis" boils down to us having less disposable income to spend on entertainment and luxuries.

You should believe the President.

After all, there must be something wrong with all those millions of people who are losing their homes. They must all be deadbeats who lied to the banks to get the loans.

Now, don't pay attention to all the banks that are failing, or are on the verge of failing. That's just "fear mongering".

What's that? It now costs you $300-$500 a month for gas costs? It's more than your monthly car payment, and almost as much as your house? Nah, you just must not be working hard enough! Get off your lazy butt and get a third or fourth job, you freakin' slacker!

What do you mean that a steak bought from the store costs over $12, when it used to cost $6? Don't you know that the grocery stores have to have their good profit margins and stock prices! You should pay it and be glad stockholders are getting such a marvelous return.

(note for the ignorant: The entire previous comments were meant as sarcasm).

Here's the test for you. Ask the AVERAGE PERSON if they had better finances 5 years ago, or right now. Ask if they could do more things 5 years ago, or right now. Ask if it was easier to pay their bills 5 years ago, or now. THAT will give you a true indication of how our economy is going.

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
The fact that you are trying to build a foundation based off of what you watch on television, is horrendous.

That's not a fact at all. It's a huge and incorrect assumption.

Thanks for your input, though.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


Is it possible that this Depression has been deliberately engineered out of the usual sequence[every sixty years, with half and quarter term dips], in order to cause such levels of unemployment, as to make joining the Army an attractive proposition, thus avoiding having to draft unwilling men/women into yet another unpopular/unnecessary war?
Just a thought,
Horsegiver.

reply to post by horsegiver



That's certainly a possibility in my opinion. Or for several other reasons. Control being the first that comes to my mind. It's a lot easier to control a population who is looking to the government for their very sustenance. A "depression" would be the perfect forum for control.

I wonder if the relationship between government and populace during the Great Depression could teach us anything on this subject...

Originally posted by sir_chancealot
Here's the test for you. Ask the AVERAGE PERSON if they had better finances 5 years ago, or right now. Ask if they could do more things 5 years ago, or right now. Ask if it was easier to pay their bills 5 years ago, or now. THAT will give you a true indication of how our economy is going.

After you ask the AVERAGE PERSON these questions, ask them next how much more value they're adding to other peoples lives now then they were 5 years ago. Ask them if they've increased the value they've added proportionally to the increase in their retirement account or home equity over the last 20 years.

Here's an interesting thought.

Most people's homes have gone up in value over the last 20 years. But did these people add a proportional amount of value to the world in the same time? Where did the "value" come from that's reflected in their home price?

Originally posted by horsegiver

Is it possible that this Depression has been deliberately engineered out of the usual sequence[every sixty years, with half and quarter term dips], in order to cause such levels of unemployment, as to make joining the Army an attractive proposition, thus avoiding having to draft unwilling men/women into yet another unpopular/unnecessary war?
Just a thought,
Horsegiver.

What depression? There isn't even a recession, let alone a depression.

The billions "lost" by the banks represented home prices used to value their assets. The home prices were outrageously over-stated. Now these assets are being fairly stated. There wasn't any REAL money lost, only an inflated value of loans they held.

In fact, the money that was "lost" can be traced back to the home sellers who benefited from selling their homes at high prices. No real money disappeared, it was just redistributed.

So where is this depression you're talking about?

Most people's homes have gone up in value over the last 20 years. But did these people add a proportional amount of value to the world in the same time? Where did the "value" come from that's reflected in their home price?


Only reason Home values went up is becuase women went into the work force and loans were easier to get..........

Put that into this perspective.....

At one time, One avg worker could buy the avg home with his avg salary
and still save tha avg 15-20% for their retirement. (20% is the gold standard)

Today, TWO avg workers can't afford the avg home and have negative savings.

So either homes are over-valued or the dollar has tanked or both.....02c

Who should you believe about the state of the economy? Believe yourself.

Take a trip to your local gas station and fill your tank up, go to the local grocery and buy a two weeks supply of food for your family, look around you at all the for sale signs on homes in your neighborhood and foreclosure notices in the paper, cruise through a few parks, alleyways, and underpasses and note the number of homeless people you see..

Bottom line, your eyes and commonsense are your best tools to gauge the economy. Don't waste your time reading statistics, they're just number that can be manipulated to say whatever their author want them to say.

[edit on 18-7-2008 by LLoyd45]

I think you're right, Lloyd (and others here who said that). That's my best indicator. My grocery bill has been insane!

I just think it's interesting that we are being told such diverse stories from people who are supposed to know. But if they had our interest at heart, we probably wouldn't be in the shape we are.

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
I just think it's interesting that we are being told such diverse stories from people who are supposed to know.

But if they had our interest at heart, we probably wouldn't be in the shape we are.

They figure if the repeat it enough, we'll all start believing it. They're simply taking a page out of Joseph Goebbels propaganda handbook..

"repetition seems to be a key culprit. Things that are repeated often become more accessible in memory, and one of the brain's subconscious rules of thumb is that easily recalled things are true."

Source

reply to post by horsegiver


That is absolutely a fascinating theory!!!!

Very much in-line with ATS as well..

I never really considered anything like that before, and it opens up a whole other kind of thinking...

Excellent..

Semper

Originally posted by semperfortis
It's typical Democratic thinking that the Government can tax Big Money and Big Corporations and the Rich people that own those corporations. Any person with a "lick of sense" as my granny used to say, knows they just pass on the higher taxes to us. All those rich people own corporations and they just increase the price of their goods to make up for the Governments tax hikes.
Semper

Part of me agree's with you semper, about "passing the buck" so to speak.

However, the part i have to disagree with is this:

The businesses wont raise their prices beyond what the customer can/will pay for. Same thing applies to gas prices, which is why "6 dollar a gallon" gas would happen for about a day, and go back down.

If i may offer my observations for a moment, on the "democrat/republican" spending scale, it seems to go like this:


Democrats tax tax tax, save save save (in comparison to republicans)

Republicans spend spend spend spend spend.

So it seems as though neither one can support without the other. A sort of "political ecosystem" if you will.


For me, i have watched my 401k investments, and my small stock portfolio dwindle these past few years, but, the only spending i see is from republicans....so i gota ask, what are the democrats doing that is making things 'bad'?

reply to post by Andrew E. Wiggin


I have no argument for you in regards to Republican Spending...

The Republican Party has moved so far beyond the original intent of a Conservative Party, they hardly seem like the same thing anymore.

When I argue in support of the Conservative Ideal, understand I support the original platform of the Republican Party...

Limited Government
Reduced Spending
Lower Taxation
Corporate Support
Individual Independence

Problem is we don't see that anymore.

Yet one must look at things realistically and realistically I MUST choose the party that is going to more closely support the very ideals that have made this Nation great...

And I do

Semper

There is a huge upside to all this, stop driving the car, spend time with your family, eat less, live a normal life... I congradulate Bush, for all his successes and many more to come

Originally posted by semperfortis
... the original platform of the Republican Party...

Limited Government
Reduced Spending
Lower Taxation
Corporate Support
Individual Independence


Yet one must look at things realistically and realistically I MUST choose the party that is going to more closely support the very ideals that have made this Nation great...

And I do

Semper

But then the question comes, if you truly support these ideals, is voting for a Republican doing that?

When it comes to

Limited Government
Reduced Spending
Individual Independence

the current political animals that claim to be Republican are worlds away from these. The rate of government growth and intrusion into the lives of Americans has been... impressive... during the Bush regime. And as far as Reduced Spending,

As far as Lower taxes goes, when the Bush tax 'cuts' went into effect, my total tax burden actually went up, due to the state and local communities losing Fed funding. So while yes my Federal Income Tax is a bit lower, I am spending more $$ on taxes than I was pre-Bush-tax-cuts. And the roads are still going to hell in a hurry.

Can't argue that the current Republican party supports corporate... they support corporate at the expense of everything else, including long-term economic and environmental health. So they support corporate to a damaging degree, that is not in the best interest of the United States.

So if you are serious about voting based on these ideals, have you considered Bob Barr? The Libertarians are closer to these ideals than the Republicans have been for a decade.