The Economic Outlook - Who to Believe?

First, there's the Bush Economy Speech on Tuesday in which Bush spoke of how there's an "upside" to this recession. Keith Olbermann's check of Bush "facts" can be seen here:

Olbermann Video

The other interesting item about this speech is that Bush aired it at exactly 10:20 Tuesday morning. The EXACT same time as Chairman of the Federal Reserve was giving HIS take on the current economy to Congress. I wonder who got more viewers?

As you might guess, Bush and Bernanke don't exactly see things the same way. This video from The Daily Show shows how different the two speeches were.

Jon Stewart's Comparison

So, what do you believe about the economy? Do you think we're going to pull out of this or is it a "psychological" thing? Are we just whining about it? Or is this really happening and what can be done about it?

[edit on 17-7-2008 by Benevolent Heretic]

So, what do you believe about the economy? Do you think we're going to pull out of this or is it a "psychological" thing? Are we just whining about it? Or is this really happening and what can be done about it?

We're going to pull out of it just like we always have. It would happen sooner if people like Olberman would stop with the fear mongering. I always laugh when people like him do "fact checks", because they are obviously completely biased and who;s checking THEIR facts? I never see guys like him checking Obama's facts, or any democrat's for that matter. They do them on Republicans, because even the phrase"fact check" implies they are liars.

My prediction is that we will see progress in the economy, but the media will continue talking it down until Obama is elected. After that, expect to suddenly see positive economic news. Mark my words.

I find it more than a little funny you post a comedian's opinion, as if his economic forecast is worth more than a cold dog turd.

[edit on 17-7-2008 by Dronetek]

reply to post by Dronetek


I don't belive Bush or Bernake......their on the same team.

I believe guys like Gerald Celente

www.trendsresearch.com...


Who thinks the S*&% is going to hit the fan......

Oh, yeah, Olbermann drives the economy. I'm going to have to contact him and see what he can do for gas prices.

Originally posted by Dronetek
I find it more than a little funny you post a comedian's opinion, as if his economic forecast is worth more than a cold dog turd.

You apparently didn't watch the clip or you would have seen that in FACT, Jon Stewart didn't give his opinion. And if the Comedy Channel is the one place that points out the gross differences in Bush's and Bernanke's takes on the economy, that's where I'm going to see it. You can believe FOX isn't going to show the discrepancies.

Thanks Pinktip for that link. Pretty interesting.

You know, BH, it is interesting you ask. Lately, I have been reading A LOT about this and what I am noticing on a fairly grand scale is that I see a lot of "rhetoric" on the "everything is going to be fine" side, and a lot of really disturbing numbers on the "we are in for a big hit" side.

The conclusion I have come to is that actions speak louder than words. And the action right now is that 2 of the countries largest mortgage companies almost tanked and would have without the aid of the Fed.

Now, imagine all of the foreign investors seeing that and losing BILLIONS now second guessing whether the US is a good investment anymore. Plain and simple, if the US loses its foreign float devices, then the US is in big time trouble. I am afraid that is happening.

THEN, add to the fray the potential of a war with Iran, or even allow for another attack on the US (we are due for one) and you have a nightmare scenario where the US economy could not make it through something like that.

AT BEST, people are saying it will be 2010 till we see the real effects of this current crisis.

AT WORST, people are saying it is the end of the US monetary sytem as we know it.

Well to be honest, the minute the Democrats took control of the house and the senate, I pulled most of my money out of the market and bought Gold.

If the Dems win the Whitehouse, the "POO" will hit the fan and the economy will tank big time.

Think it's bad now? WHEW, it will get outrageous as we are taxed out of oblivion and into the stone age.

It's typical Democratic thinking that the Government can tax Big Money and Big Corporations and the Rich people that own those corporations. Any person with a "lick of sense" as my granny used to say, knows they just pass on the higher taxes to us. All those rich people own corporations and they just increase the price of their goods to make up for the Governments tax hikes.

So, vote Democrat if you want to, but give me some time to liquefy the remainder of my Portfolio please.

Semper

Originally posted by TruthWithin
Lately, I have been reading A LOT about this and what I am noticing on a fairly grand scale is that I see a lot of "rhetoric" on the "everything is going to be fine" side, and a lot of really disturbing numbers on the "we are in for a big hit" side.

What I wonder is what we're NOT hearing about. If some of the "we are in for a big hit" info is getting to us, I wonder what the PTB have decided that we "can't handle" hearing.

Not just Freddie and Fannie. (Who names these companies?) IndyMac, too, right?

IndyMac Included in FBI Fraud Inquiry

Failed lender IndyMac Bank is among nearly two dozen banks under scrutiny by the Federal Bureau of Investigation for possible mortgage fraud, U.S. officials said.

The big Pasadena, Calif., bank was seized by regulators last week, the third-largest bank failure in U.S. history. It specialized in home loans to borrowers who lacked full documentation for their income or assets and have a higher default rate than other loans.

Trouble Persists for Some IndyMac Customers

The frustration didn't end for some IndyMac customers when they finally were able to withdraw their funds from the failing Southern California bank seized last week by federal regulators.

Some people have run into more problems when they tried to deposit IndyMac cashier checks at other banks.

It's like things are falling through the cracks to where it's getting really noticeable to the people (with their eyes open) and the government and media are saying, "It's all part of the show, people... Don't worry, be happy."

Oh yeah, Semper. Republican, Democrat, blah, blah, blah...

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic

Semper. Republican, Democrat, blah, blah, blah

HEY NOW!!!!

I never told anyone how to vote!!!!!

All I ask for was enough time to bail out before the Democrat/Socialist take over...

Is that asking too much?

Oh yeah, this is "Decision 2008" forum isn't it.. Supposed to be for politics? Let me go look..

lalalalalala

I'm back, yep I was right, this is the "Decision 2008" forum and it is SUPPOSED TO BE POLITICAL IN HERE...


Semper

Semper, you know I've got nothing but love for you, but to put this squarely on the shoulders of democrats is a little ridiculous, no?

Socialism from democrats only? Really? Then how can you explain the "socialization" (allowing a PRIVATE company to borrow the government's money) of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae at the bequest of a republican president?

This is all not due to taxing big business. This is mostly the result of Bushenomics, started by Bush Sr. that called for less regulation in the housing and financial markets. What Bush's policy did was allow companies like Fannie Mae to loan money that they didn't have to begin with and as a result billions, if not trillions of dollars were literally pulled out of this air. This effect causes the ultimate doom of banks failing.

reply to post by TruthWithin


HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Now come on!!!!

You know me well enough by now to know I know what is going on...

I just 'dis' the Democrats so much to try and level the playing field a little with all the "Bush haters" that are out there.

I do however support the Government's support of corporations. This has traditionally proven to be healthy for the economy and well.. My portfolio as well.

The problem is too many people that have no idea how the market works, not really, making assumptions and stating comments about this.

It is lose lose for the government. Step in and they get blasted for "Bail-outs"...

Don't step in and we have a market crash the likes of which we have not seen for 78 years.

Do you really want to pay $20.00 for a loaf of bread?

So, I will keep supporting a system I KNOW works and continue to support a PROVEN concept. The Democrats are looking for change...

Well they might just get it and I WILL say I told you so..

....

Semper

reply to post by semperfortis


No, YOU "come on", Mr. Semper!

You can't have it both ways, a kind of one sided socialized economy that is ok when it works for you and then to turn it around to besmirch the democrats with!

All your last post told me (and former, recent avatar crying foul that Obama will bring some socialist agenda to the WH) was that socialism is good only when it props up the bank to suit your portfolio but the very same concept is not ok when it fits your argument about the dems.

You can't have your cake and eat it too.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic

What I wonder is what we're NOT hearing about. If some of the "we are in for a big hit" info is getting to us, I wonder what the PTB have decided that we "can't handle" hearing. Not just Freddie and Fannie. (Who names these companies?) IndyMac, too, right?

That is the question of the hour, right? I did notice, however, that FDIC sure did have people on the ground handing out insurance fliers AND FAST! That really caught my eye, and the government has even gone as far as to seek legislation to prevent "rumors" from floating around the market!! Can you believe that!!?? No rumors on wall street!!!??

The fact is, and what most people don't understand, is that if people do panic and start pulling all of their cash out, the system will literally crash overnight. There is actually government protocol for such an event. All I remember reading is that on day 3 of the event, paratroopers would be dropped to protect the various locations of the fed. If a run on the banks does occur, it will be the end.

reply to post by TruthWithin


You are NOT supposed to remember old avatars!!!!...

And I like my cake just fine...

I don't like you anymore and I am taking my toys and going home!!!

Just kidding you know

Semper

Who to believe regarding the economic outlook? I'll take me. I believe my opinion.

And that is, we are in a world of hurt, and are going to be in more, fairly soon.

btw, Semper, I flatly reject your argument that the economy has gone downhill since and because of the Democratic majority in Congress.

Two reasons:

1 - The US economy is huge, and has inertia (for lack of a better term). I do not accept the premise that it is possible, barring some major disaster, to take a truly healthy economy the size of the US and pretty much destroy it in two years. Can't be done.

2 - What, exactly, has the Democratically controlled Congress done that is of any count at all? From what I've seen, and I admit I have not followed every single thing they do, having better things to occupy my time, such as picking lint from my dog's coat, the current Congress has been even more useless than the previous. Which is a Good Thing, in a way... a usesless Congress does less harm.

So, I reject that claim. Given the size of the US economy, if it were truly healthy, and the Democrats had ruined it, we would not yet be seeing the effects, or just barely.

And I don't recall any huge economic changes passed by Congress and signed by Bush.

Sorry, man, your argument on this does not hold water, from a purely logical point of view.

Back to the point - I see what I see in the economy - massive Gov't deficit spending, for one, and massive corruption for another - and I see trouble ahead.

I don't really care what Bernanke (sp?) says, and as for Bush, if he said it was hot at noon in June in Phoenix, I'd go outside myself to check.

reply to post by Open_Minded Skeptic


That is why we all have opinions...

Makes this a great place to be.

Semper

After observing what has happened to jobs and housing in ATL and the decline of my own particular business sector, I have been closely watching the economy since last summer. I go to lots of different economics/business sites and blogs. The one who I think seems to have been the most accurate is Jim Kunstler. Here's an excerpt from is his latest blog entry, though the full text is a great read:

www.kunstler.com...

With the death of the IndyMac Bank last week, and the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac laying side-by-side in the EMT van on IV drips, headed for the Federal Reserve's ever more crowded intensive care unit, there was a sense of the American Dream having passed through the event horizon that denotes the opening of a black hole…

What would happen if the US Government acted to bail out these feckless enterprises (and what if they don't)? Either way, it's not a pretty picture. If Mr. Bernanke does start shoveling loans into the GSE black hole, he'll further undermine the soundness of his own outfit and do nothing, really, to repair Fannie and Freddie's structural problem of having securitized too many loans that will never be paid back. If instead Fannie and Freddie are flat-out taken over entirely by the US government (and remember the Federal Reserve is not the government), then the national debt will roughly double overnight -- which will pound the US dollar down a rat-hole.

Meanwhile, the foreign holders of those decrepitating dollars might not rush to the redemption window, but they certainly would use them to buy up every oil futures contract on God's not-so-green Earth as fast as possible -- they'd be dumb not to -- which would leave American Happy Motorists with gasoline prices north of $5 a gallon, and possibly north of $10. (In that case, say goodbye to the airlines. In fact, say goodbye to what passes for the rest of the US economy, including especially the vaunted retail sector that supposedly counts for 70 percent of the action.)
If Fannie and Freddie are left to die out on the desert floor, say goodbye to the housing market, the major investment banks, countless regional banks, the retirement accounts of virtually everyone in America, the viability of all fifty states' governments, and the day-to-day operating ability of all their municipalities -- and very likely the current incarnation of the world banking system.

This process is really out of control now. The bottom line is the comprehensive bankruptcy of the United States. The Republican Party under George Bush will be known as the party that wrecked America (release 2.0). Painful as it is, Americans had better get a new "Dream" and fast. It better be a dream based on the way the universe actually works, which is to say an operating procedure run on earnest effort and truthfulness rather than merely trying to get something for nothing and wishing on stars. We might begin symbolically by evacuating Las Vegas and calling in an air strike on the loathsome place -- to register our new reality-based attitude adjustment.

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic


So, what do you believe about the economy? Do you think we're going to pull out of this or is it a "psychological" thing? Are we just whining about it? Or is this really happening and what can be done about it?

Pull out of what specifically? The economy grew at a 1% annual rate last quarter. We are not in a recession. I haven't personally seen a single evidence of mass hardship, or even isolated hardship.

What's the big problem?

Put it this way, if you didn't watch the news or go online, would you even notice the world is any different today than 10 years ago? So people will spend a couple thousand extra for gas over the course of the year. Big deal.

Originally posted by jamie83
Put it this way, if you didn't watch the news or go online, would you even notice the world is any different today than 10 years ago? So people will spend a couple thousand extra for gas over the course of the year. Big deal.

Uh, yeah, I think I might notice that my food costs have gone up ~3X in the last year alone, electric costs have gone up, even things like garbage collection have gone up. Not to mention I think I'd notice a multiplication of fuel costs.

So yeah, I think any person who doesn't hire every single thing done for them would notice.

And oh yeah... salary has not gone up.

Has anybody ever thought that we are being played by what we hear? A lot of these news medias are out to get ratings. The gloomier the news, better ratings, A lot of these people talking about the economy have their own self interest at heart because they want a book, radio, tv deal or belong to a political party with a political agenda.

Economies are like roller coasters, they have to go up and down. It has always been said that what goes up must come down. We must admit that for a while we had a pretty good economy. Now we are down and eventually the economy will pick back up.

reply to post by jam321


No doubt... that's why I choose me as the person I believe.

I didn't hear on TV or radio that my food costs have tripled in the last year... that is a measurement, based on $$$ spent for food. Same for the other increased costs. And also same for the stagnant wages.

The economy does run in cycles, agreed. The current cycle, at least in the US, is one of spreading the difference between the rich and the rest economically. Which is not a stable situation, politically or civilly.