NEWS: Is the Next Oil War in Venezuela?

Now that Iraq has signed a constitution, and the issue in Haiti seems to be settling down, will the U.S. intervene in Venezuela? The president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez seems to think so. He has vowed to cut off all oil supplies and wage a 100-year war if the United States interferes with the current situation in Venezuela.

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CARACAS, Venezuela -- President Hugo Chavez on Sunday vowed to freeze oil exports to the United States and wage a "100-year war" if Washington ever tried to invade Venezuela.
The United States has repeatedly denied ever trying to overthrow Chavez, but the leftist leader accuses Washington of being behind a failed 2002 coup and of funding opposition groups seeking a recall referendum on his presidency.
Chavez accused the United States of ousting former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and warned Washington not to "even think about trying something similar in Venezuela."
Venezuela "has enough allies on this continent to start a 100-year war," Chavez said during his weekly television show.
He added that "U.S. citizens could forget about ever getting Venezuelan oil" if the United States ever tried to invade.

The current situation in Venezuela started when about 500,000 people marched on Caracas in protest when a council that runs the election process ruled that a key portion of the signatures on a recall petition were not valid. A large part of Venezuela is unhappy with the poor conditions that they live in, and the way that Chavez is running the country. They have been pushing for a recall election similar to the recent one in California that ousted Gov. Davis.

After 1.2 million of their signatures were rule invalid by the National Elections Council, they held a protest where security forces killed 9 and injured up to 50 people demonstrating. Venezuela�s ambassador to the United Nations resigned his position saying that he could not represent a country that destroys human rights.

Venezuela supplies 15% of U.S. oil imports and 11.5% of OPEC�s total output, so you can bet that Washington is watching this story with interest. Oil reserves in the U.S. are at the lowest levels in decades, and with OPEC affirming its decision to cut oil production in April, any disruption of the oil supply from Venezuela would cause gas prices to soar over $40 a barrel. Last year the oil supply from Venezuela stopped when demonstrators rioted for a week protesting Chavez�s rule, but Saudi Arabia increased its production to keep oil prices stable. There is no guarantee that Saudi will do the same this year, and OPEC has reaffirmed their decision to cut 1 million barrels a day in April.

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[Edited on 9-3-2004 by SkepticOverlord]

large part of Venezuela is unhappy with the poor conditions that they live in, and the way that Chavez is running the country.

Chavez is a populist...the folk that are marching are not the poor, but the middle class to elite. Frontline did a documentary on this last year. The people have been engaged in these protest and counter protest for a long time. The elite even attempted to overthrow Chavez in 2002.

link

As Venezuela Slides, the Poor Stand By Their Man

CARACAS, Venezuela, April 25, 2003 -- Unemployed and penniless, Ermis Montilla, 31, lives for now with his family in a shack made of cardboard and corrugated tin. But he has nothing but praise for President Hugo Chavez.

With building materials from the government, and advice from army engineers, Mr. Montilla is proudly constructing his own home on a hillside of Caracas. He has even become a community leader, imbued with a sense of civic consciousness he says Mr. Chavez has awakened in him.

"The opponents of Chavez always promised and promised but never spoke to us," said Mr. Montilla, a father of three. "Now, we have rights. Before, when we talked, no one listened."

Personally, I don't believe it's any of our business. If the elites recall Chavez, so be it. If the poor keep him, all the good for them. We shouldn't be involving our nation in the internal politics of other nations. Let them sort out their own problems.

Originally posted by Saphronia

Personally, I don't believe it's any of our business. If the elites recall Chavez, so be it. If the poor keep him, all the good for them. We shouldn't be involving our nation in the internal politics of other nations. Let them sort out their own problems.

You're absolutely correct, but you are forgetting about the oil. Now we know that Iraq was never a threat to the U.S., but we invaded them in spite of that. They were only a threat to the oil supply. The U.S. has already proved its willingness to support their oil interest no matter what the cost is. Granted the entire middle east oil reserves was a good reason to be in Iraq(central location), but if you need a reason to invade a country for its oil, both look similar.

Iraq oil production - 2.9 million b/d (peak before war)
Venezuela oil production - 3.0 million b/d (and rising)

Chavez needs to get a good information minister like the Iraqi's had. "We will wage a 100 year war." - weak
"We will roast their stomachs in the pit of hell" - better

[Edited on 9-3-2004 by dbates]

I didn't forget the oil. It just isn't a good reason to invade in my opinion. We need to start serious developnment of alternative sources of energy instead of trying to support our costly oil addiction. If we put half the money we spend supporting despotic regimes into alternative energy we'd be well on the way to to being self-sufficient. As for our future involvement in Venezuela--we'll continue to support the opposition. If it comes to war our government will choose to help them for "humanitarian reasons". You are right, Iraq was a precendent setting war. We've been pulled into both Liberia and Haiti because of Iraq. I, for one, don't think that's a good thing. We have to start to plan and spend for the future. Oil will not last forever and it's a mistake to keeping throwing money at problem.