posted on Jul, 7 2008 @ 06:56 PM
Originally posted by burdman30ott6
reply to post by downtown436
I don't think that's even remotely possible with all the security features built into the market.
i surmise your talking about the DOW 9,000 that 'downtown436'
forecast by Aug '08..
I don't agree with you...
a DOW 9k is possible, but far fetched, under the conceiveable changes of the stock market... as we can rationally imagine.
But, if another chaos factor gets into the mix - something like Leahman or Morgan Stanley going the path of the former Bear Stearns --- your
assumptions would change radically about a stock market (DOW) retreat to 9,000.
many (as far as my reading list) economist forecasters are of the opinion that by election time the DOW could be at 10,500 and be poised to fall to
10k shortly thereafter...which translates to a DOW 10.5 in Nov and 10k or even lower, depending upon another major financial
brokerage-house/investment banker org. going down the tubes fron nov'08-jan '09
the 'security features' you mention --- do you mean the PPT plunge-protection-team or are you referring to the Market Curbs that are put into place
on trading when there is a -250 point plunge- that is intended to break the programmed trading analogs used by the traders and Funds managers?
imho---neither can be a solution when the bond bubble bursts, and the millions of 401k investors cash in their positions to attempt to save some of
their retirement monies--
which in many index funds have already lost +20% of their value in the first 6 months this year alone !
(not to mention the value of their 401ks already losing purchasing value to the tune of 6% more than the official rate of inflation
i had earlier preognisticated a DOW 9,000 in 12-18 months in another ATS thread...week(s ) before others were even saying DOW 10k by January '09 and
to add another -2k to the fall if another major financial house goes bankrupt
i'm only still in dividend paying stocks and will remain so, as the market goes down.... i'll be accruing more shares from the dividend