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Oil To Hit $300-$400 a Barrel if Iran Attacked: NBC News

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posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 05:49 AM
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first off, i think 80% is way too high - but if you could post an article, i might be wrong.

I've heard this number banted about alot. I'll try to find the quote, but lets
add some evidence........

1-The lower 50% pay low if not any at all income taxes. Their at the level
of going to food stamps. Safe bet they are paycheck to paycheck

So if 80% is accurate, lets find the 30%...........

2-It is estimated the foreclosure collapse as of ~4 months ago effects
15% . If their foreclosing, they can't make payments, PtoP.
That number now is probably 20%.

So we need 10%.......

Easily 5% are not maxed on the mortgage but are maxed on the two
30K cars in the driveway, swimming pools, etc.....keeping with up with
the Jones. Probably closer to 10%........

OH! I know where the 80% comes from......80% do not save at all and have a negative cash flow (charging).... That ties in to the living PtoP.

To live within your means, you should be saving 20% of your gross.
Thats the gold standard and allows for economic flucuations....

I'll find some data............






[edit on 4-7-2008 by Pinktip]




posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:07 AM
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www.accountingweb.com...

Here's 65% in 07'


www.cnn.com...

Here's 41% in 06'

So if you want to draw a line with two data points........


I maybe a little high with 80%, but not for long.........



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:24 AM
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Originally posted by Agit8dChop
Yeah well im sure people back in 2000 would of laughed at the prospect of $144 per barrel oil.

But look at where we are at...

Exactly. The idea of $400 a barrel oil is going to be a reality one day, isn't it? Even in 50 years (if there's any left).

At the rate oil has gone up recently, I'm sure the right "event" will raise prices tremendously.

The scariest thing is, if war breaks out with Iran and oil instantly doubled in price, everyone would complain about it, but no one would question it.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:27 AM
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reply to post by Pinktip
 


you are correct, lots of Americans charge charge charge charge

but so do a lot of asians, brits, germans, pakistanis, saudi's, russians, etc etc

In the store that i run - we are based in the town where the University of Illinois resides. The u of i has a HUGE population of asian students.....could be the largest in the country - though i dunno for sure

regardless

i get lots of asian customers in my store to buy their "illinois" mechandise before they go back home

American Express card is hands down the most frequently used card, and they'll charge hundreds, almost thousands, of dollars to it


My point is

If you charge it - you still have to pay for it.
Its not like "oh, ill put this on AMEX and let uncle same pay for it"

If only it were that easy.

So if they charge it, and its 20 dollars a gallon

they still wont be able to afford it

you dont see many citizens putting battlecruisers and destroyer boats on credit cards, do ya


because they can't afford them



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:28 AM
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reply to post by Andrew E. Wiggin
 


no but the US goevernment is putting the cruisers and frigates on credit cards - and that credit card payments are getting mighty tight with teh USD being weakened daily.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:31 AM
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reply to post by NuclearPaul
 


Why would oil double in price if Iran is attacked?

First off - if anyone should 'attack' Iran, its Israel. America better keep its snotty nose out of this one. We got no business being over there other than bush wants to play "army men" again.


But, still, what about attacking Iran will raise the price? Iran doesnt supply anywhere near to the majority of oil in the world


hypothetical scenario:

America attacks Iran and the saudis and Hugo Chavez say "THATS IT AMERICA, HERE, 400 A BARREL!!!"

and america says

"oh?
" --- " fine then ,we'll go drill our own"

poof

problem solved.


400 a barrel is a scare tactic to keep you glued to your TV set
nothing more

it is a tactic that is obviously working.

So many people have so little understanding on even the very basics of economics.

That, to me, is the frightening part



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:38 AM
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The problem with the oil prices is not because of amount of all - opec et al , have allready proved there is a glut of oil ; its the money makers playing the markets who are making the millions in bonuses at the expense of the rest of the planet.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:47 AM
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reply to post by Harlequin
 


but the US government is just that

a government

they are not individuals

you cannot skew the conversation from individuals to an entire government

the government pays for those frigates, battlecruisers, etc with our tax dollars
there's good credit

there's bad credit


bad credit sit he debts you stopped paying on because you dont want to


Good creidt is the kind of credit you continue to pay on because you enjoy having the option of "buy now, pay later"

YOU ARE STILL PAYING


The government puts big expensive thigns on "good credit" so it can do multiple things at once

else?

We'd still be pulling plows on horses and driving our in buggies


atleast that way , i suppose, we wouldnt have to worry about petrol?



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 08:30 AM
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what are you taliing about `skew the conversation` - the thread is about oil hitting $400 a barrel.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 11:04 AM
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reply to post by Andrew E. Wiggin
 



Andrew E. Wiggin , your catching up, your in danger lol watch out

euro business is to smart for this oil crap, go figure why the new euro is up and running



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 12:10 PM
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My take on this american causality.

The iraqis were attacked because they tranacted there oil on the euro. Now the big 4 have open season on iraqi oil. Thats why saddam blew up his own oil fields when the US attacked. Remember!. Maybe not.... But look it up on google or some other search function.

Than iran began to transact oil for euros. The US suddenly wants to attack iran now and every day more american/israel posturing occurs. Than iran makes the news they will dump cheap oil on the market destabilizing the fragile dollar, which is proped up by opec oil sales, bringing the weak dollar to collapse.

Than, we have venezuela who the US will attack next for transacting oil sales in euros and dumping el cheapo oil on the market through citigo.

The american dollar is to weak to compete against the euro which now holds positive value over the dollar.

Look at this thing from the perspective of economics and dollar valuing. If the lowly dollar goes belly up, so does the american economy.

On tv, just last week, there was a chief of opec who said, the production of oil will end, depending on what happens with iran. They don't want iran attacked. The price per barrel is opec punishing the world for this craziness from the americans and there attack dog israel.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:11 PM
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Originally posted by rrrichw
this is all bull# and this thread should be deleted.

#1 it comes businessandmedia.org. has anyone ever gotten their news from this site? has anyone even heard of this website before? ANYONE could have created this website and ANYONE could make up whatever they want and post it online.

#2 the website looks at least 4-5 years old. websites are not designed like this anymore. even if you had a budget of $100, you could create a much nicer looking website. look at any major news sources websites and compare it to that one. you will notice a huge difference in the quality.


Well according to the WHOIS info for that domain it was created in 2006, so it's only 2 years old. A site's "Age" has nothing to do with it's look...just because it didn't use flash, fancy sound bytes doesn't mean it's not an effective site...hey, it's got YOU talkin about now....doesn't it?

Domain ID
119524696-LROR
Domain Name:BUSINESSANDMEDIA.ORG
Created On:31-Mar-2006 22:46:57 UTC
Last Updated On:01-Apr-2008 01:22:24 UTC
Expiration Date:31-Mar-2009 22:46:57 UTC



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:19 PM
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Originally posted by DimensionalDetective


“Name your price – $300-$400 a barrel.’”



Not that oil would actually be worh $400 a barrel at that point, but because of speculation and shortage of the commodity, those owning futures contracts could ask for any amount they wanted if there was not a lower asking price...So maybe even $500 - $600 a barrel? $1000 a barrel? It all depends on how greedy and unscrupulous the oil futures contract holders are, right?

Because humans have very little value for each other (a trait that is seemingly in the DNA) it is human nature to want to make a lot of money while others have very little. It ensures the lucky profiteer that he will not be mistreated by others, that he will have value in the eyes of others...Because money and power are the things that people value and respect.

It's been that way since the beginning of human history.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:35 PM
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reply to post by windwaker
 


Just to add to my own reply, as a matter of fact, it is possible that the price of oil will not increase in incremental amounts, but increase EXPONENTIALLY if a real serious event occurs that will cut off oil deliveries.

This is because people who invest in any commodity expect a certain percentage of gain in their investment. So if I invest $1000 in oil futures contracts, and I want my investment to count for something, I will hold out on selling those contracts until the price of oil reaches a point that is the right percentage higher than what I came in at. If there is a possibility that I can make a 1000% gain on an investment over a 100% gain, I'll hold out for the 1000% gain.

I personally do not invest in oil futures, I just invest in companies. But if I did invest in oil, and it was really in high demand, I would hold out in selling my little allotment of oil for a higher price, and so would everyone else with oil futures contracts.

That's why the price of oil is so high now. And a lot of it has to do with investors that are from our own country of U.S.A.

The price of oil could rise to levels that seem like pure extortion.

Someone please correct me if I am wrong.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 06:38 PM
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Originally posted by Andrew E. Wiggin
reply to post by NuclearPaul
 



So many people have so little understanding on even the very basics of economics.




my claim rests on a simple theory

If gas rises to a price that people cant/wont pay

then the oil companies make ZERO money



The thing is what happens is the rich who can afford will still buy oil correct? So that means less people will be buying gas HOWEVER since they will charge $400 it can make up for that fall in demand. It's called price elasticity, look it up.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 07:34 PM
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I thought the rising oil prices were to make more money
off the war and to make Bush hit Iran.

To get Clinton to cruise missile Osama the Pentagon had
to use Monica and the promise from the Illuminati that
he would not be Impeached.

Bush just is impenetrable or needs some more sit downs in a kiddie
class with a whisper from the Illuminati on what to do.

The American people tried to block his entrance into the white house.
What will happen when he leaves?



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 08:43 PM
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Hmmm, well. The U.S does have a massive amount of oil. (but they don't want to admit it.) That gives them the excuse to raise oil prices for the lack of supply and higher demand. I don't know if the Middle East exports a lot of oil over here. But I do hear that the war in the Middle East is still going on because of the oil in the Middle East is secretly being taken away.


Every excuse plays a part in the shadow goverments plan.

Whenever a natural disaster strikes the prices go up.
Whenever a terrorist attack happens the prices go up.

It's a way for the goverments to yank our chain, so they don't lose any power.



posted on Jul, 4 2008 @ 11:16 PM
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If Iran can shut down the straits of Hormuz it will effect Saudi Arabias oil as well. We will see oil Shortages. Price will be a secondary concern. Our economy is already teetering on the Brink. This would push it over rather quickly.

As far as forcing alternative energy goes, you can't force the laws of thermodynamics to change just because it becomes necessary. Even if the technologies exist, it takes a massive investment to switch over. The switch over requires an increased use of current energy. So with a sudden shortage of oil, and a collapsed economy, you would have no options.



posted on Jul, 5 2008 @ 01:14 AM
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I'm not one for attacking Iran, it's a horrible mistake.

However, the value of oil is going to reach $400 regardless of an attack on Iran or not. The economy is failing, the investors are turning to oil, which through interest drives the value per barrel up, decreasing the ability for the economy to afford it, driving the dollar down, and inviting more investors to invest in oil rather than the economy.

Economy is going down.
Dollar is going down.
Value of oil is going up.

Theres no way I can foresee it NOT hitting $400 a barrel soon. (Unless the US enacts a socialist control system to clamp down on the value of oil.)

This has NOTHING to do with supply and demand, and EVERYTHING to do with speculation of investors. There are plenty of reserves, plenty of refineries and oil wells.
It's all about the investors speculating on the price by wanting in on it.


Let me make it simple.
Person A has an investment in 10,000 barrels of sweet crude. They hold it at $100.
Person B wants 5,000 barrels in investment. Is willing to pay $110.
Value of sweet crude is now at $110.

That's of course a very simplistic way of explaining it. But I can tell you this... all supply has to do with it is to give excuses to the investors to mark the value up before they trade.



posted on Jul, 5 2008 @ 02:27 AM
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Seriously, come on people.

Who would attack Iran?

George Bush isnt even that stupid.

There will be no war with Iran, end of story.



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