What Are The Chances You Will Read This?, page 3

reply to post by Buck Division

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Dumbest thread I have read in a while. Pulls stats outa your back side and I am not sure, but I suppose they where supposed to mean something.

No flag for you.

reply to post by Rockpuck

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Dumbest thread I have read in a while. Pulls stats outa your back side and I am not sure, but I suppose they where supposed to mean something. No flag for you.

(Dumbest thread ever.) I must admit I spent less time on this thread than I should have, given the amount of unexpected responses. Go figure.

(Pulling stats from nowhere.) I explained a bit earlier about the statistics, and where I got them. They are certainly open for discussion, but I can defend most of them (except for the chances of you being born. See my response below.)

(Suppose to mean something.) Probability is just the number of opportunities to achieve a particular outcome, divided by the total number of possible outcomes. So when I say there was one chance in 10 to the 300th power of you reading this, I was saying there existed an incredible number of alternatives to me being here to write this, you being here to read this, and you actually reading this (especially using the beginning of life on this planet as a starting reference!)

(No flag for me.) That’s okay man. I really am not after stars or flags or points, really. I am much more interested in trying to achieve understanding of things. I expect you and I are the same in that respect.

Edit: This thread is suppose to make you question destiny. It was presented in a joking manner, but it is really about a very serious subject: what brings an individual to a particular moment in time? If that moment is reading this post, it seems humorous. If that moment is dying in a car crash -- it has a bit more serious nature, obviously.

[edit on 2-7-2008 by Buck Division]

reply to post by Zealott

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When it comes to being born are you referring to the sperm cells that don't make it? If not I have no idea what you are talking about.

Excellent point, Zealott.

I was actually talking about all the events that were necessary for your conception -- as a whole -- so that includes the chances that your Mom and Dad went on their first date together (as opposed to doing something else that night) and the chance your Mom's parents and Dad's parents doing the same, etc., all the way back to the beginning of time.

But you bring up a good question: are all those things really necessary for you to be born? Perhaps these things just govern what body you inhabit, but do not necessarily affect YOU. Maybe -- you -- are more than that, and would have been born even if your parents never met!

It all goes to what is consciousness -- what are you?

Certainly, it is not a matter of a particular sperm and egg joining together. Otherwise, Monozygotic twins (identical twins) would share the same consciousness in their separate bodies. (Not the case, I don't think, but I really don't know for sure.)

If I am wrong about the above -- and that YOU are formed ONLY with a particular sperm meeting a particular egg -- well -- the odds of you being here to read this must be even MORE astronomical than before. I think.

reply to post by Buck Division

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I really don't think that this thread title would ever of produced the stats you where trying to arrive at.

Because you didn't take into account human behavior

To substantiate the supporting statistics you would of had to create a Real Thread with a Real topic and Not mentioned it was "a test" so to speak
or an observation By referring to your observations "you muddied the waters"

This thread wasn't a "total waste" because it was interesting to see how people reacted to your statistical analysis and what their responses were
in general

and I hope that your future threads garner as much attention in a positive manner
have a great day

reply to post by Buck Division

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you forgot in your calculations that the actual name of the thread is more appealing then other threads, and sparks people to want to see it more, nice thread but the world isnt based totally on numbers.

reply to post by The Utopian Penguin

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I really don't think that this thread title would ever of produced the stats you where trying to arrive at. Because you didn't take into account human behavior

To substantiate the supporting statistics you would of had to create a Real Thread with a Real topic and Not mentioned it was "a test" so to speak
or an observation By referring to your observations "you muddied the waters".

I am sure you are right, Utopian. My post, and the first paragraph, had the same effect as a "Don't Look Here", thread -- it is human nature to look. I should have anticipated that (but I didn't.)

Forget the first paragraph of this post. It was really a distraction to my main message: the unlikelihood of arriving at a particular point in time, especially when you consider all the many branches that might have led you elsewhere. That unlikelihood is astronomically high, getting higher as you go back in time and are faced with more branches away from "now"

I've got a final idea that I'm holding back on. It may or may not be valid. I'm still thinking about it.

reply to post by Buck Division

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I sit perched leaning forward in my chair waiting .....

I have a tendency to see things slight differently than others sometime and
can shed light on the human behavior in efforts such as this thread
and if ever need of a loan I be happy to lend you 2cent
My U2U is alway open

Oh and did you take into account the number of "reads" in your threads

Thanks for making me feel lucky

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