What Are The Chances You Will Read This?

Statistics! EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEK! It's the mark o' de debil!!! runaway ! Runaway! Save yourselves!*

* so what are the odds that I'd make a random whackamole post with a 1:1 ratio of consonants and vowels? Oh crap, I just messed it up Just like quantum physics, you look at it, measure it or comment on it and it all goes to crap. **



** you're counting, aren't you?

Originally posted by Buck Division
I'm just making a casual prediction here, but I would estimate with 85% likelihood that this post will receive between one and four flags, between four and sixteen replies, and two to five stars, within the next 30 days. This is just a guess. We will see.

You have guessed poorly.

But what is the actual probability that you (yes YOU specifically, my reader), will read this post? It's difficult to say, but I will estimate the following:

Stop right there cowboy, I think we see how your estimations go

Just kidding, cool thread...I dig your brain and the way it works. 2 stars....crap I just made it worse for ya.

By naming the post "What Are The Chances You Will Read This?" you changed the odds. I would have not read it if it had a different title.

well i read the op,then i started to read the rest of the thread,but then stopped to type this,.....right there,where all the dots are i stopped to sip my joose,9.0% alcohol,then i started typing again,but now i realize that there are other more interesting threads,so i ask myself....what are you doing,i know youve been asked many times,but what are the chances of that......another sip of joose....loland now i edited this to ask for a star cuz i dont think ive had one....more to consider

[edit on 1-7-2008 by pureevil81]

Meh i jsut had to answer. No witty response though, but do i Get a cookie?
puhhhllllllleeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaassssssseeeeee?!?!?!?!?! (preferably chocolate chip)

Wow junior, you need a hobby.

reply to post by Buck Division


Way to go B.D. for starting a thread that's not so darn serious and for taking a night of threads that I had actually planned on "learning something" and you threw in a monkey wrench and derailed it all...LOL

Thanks for breaking up the monotony, it's good to go against the grain sometimes, especially when it's got tons of statistics to back it up, or disprove it all. I wonder sometimes...What are the odds that i actually wrote this reply and was awake this darn long at night...Well, the odds are 90% in my favor because I'm a night owl..
BTW, thanks Whaaa, for making me laugh, your humor is fun and engaging..

I question the validity of your statistics.

Holy crap, and my alien topic got moved to BTS!

This thread should be moved to BTS immediately! This is the worst topic I have ever seen on ATS, no doubt. What a waste of space.



Did you people just learn how to count or something?? WOW! Congrats, you get a STAR, just like kindergarten.

[edit on 2-7-2008 by ALLis0NE]

I started this day out on the right foot, i was logged in to read this!

60/40
Only 60% because of the title... 40% because I'm normally not on here this late at nite.
Interesting test. Survey says.....

reply to post by ALLis0NE


Well since I'm curious, might I ask you what were the chances that you would eventually ended up here reading this... and then actually posting a response?
Odds are.....?

Carry on


T-

Originally posted by telemetry
Well since I'm curious, might I ask you what were the chances that you would eventually ended up here reading this... and then actually posting a response?
Odds are.....?

You have a thread title that makes people curious, and you have a topic that is b.s. Since 3/4 of all threads here on ATS and BTS are like that, I would say the chances of this happening are 3 out of 4.



[edit on 2-7-2008 by ALLis0NE]

Ack... Odds that I'd be awake at this ungodly hour, sober, online, signed into ATS. sober, focused enough to read, did I mention sober... It's mind boggling.

Numbers hurt.

There is one chance in two that I will tell you to kiss my ass.
'...'
Looks like you were lucky this time.

The OP sounds like the short guy from Princes Bride. " I knew that you knew that i would know...." What do you base your numbers on?

Interesting thread, been a long time since I spent much time on ATS, but wondering minds want to know.

Yay I just became a statistic.....or was I already one..........

Originally posted by ALLis0NE
Holy crap, and my alien topic got moved to BTS!

This thread should be moved to BTS immediately! This is the worst topic I have ever seen on ATS, no doubt. What a waste of space.

Did you people just learn how to count or something?? WOW! Congrats, you get a STAR, just like kindergarten.

[edit on 2-7-2008 by ALLis0NE]

I agree notice a mod comments and praises as well.

Here is a brief explanation, and some comments.

#

First, I know I offend some people with the apparent stupidity of this thread, but I think it is significant and belongs in this forum. You can't contemplate the odds of a long shot -- then have that happen -- without thinking about fate, destiny, predetermination, free will. It surrounds us all the time, but we take it for granted.

All these are topics worth dwelling on, and this is the proper forum to do that. (Hope that answers your grievance ALLisONE. BTW, I liked your thread about "real pictures of aliens". You shouldn't be offended that it was moved -- it was still a good thread.)

#

Secondly, I made my original estimate on the number of stars, flags, and replies scientifically. I based these figures on my previous posts, assuming a normal distribution. For example, I calculated that I average about ten replies for my posts, with a standard deviation of only three.

en.wikipedia.org...

Therefore, there is a 95.41% chance that the number of replies would be within two standard deviations of my average, or between 4 and 16 replies. (Okay -- I was off there.) If you factor the responses from this single post, it changes everything. I guess I don’t have enough statistical sample. Given enough time and enough samples, these statistics absolutely do work. It is natural law. Please don't be dissuaded by these bad results into thinking statistics is garbage.

#

Thirdly, one of the things I wanted to show was the improbability of ANYTHING occurring in the universe. If you look at my original statistics, you can see that I estimate the chances of you being born to be one in a million. Who knows what the chances of you being born actually were? It might be higher, or lower. I would say your existence is VERY unlikely.

Consider, what would have happened if your great grandmother, twenty generations back, had taken that wrong turn, and accidentally bumped into that person who was carrying the plague? Would you still be here now, to read this?

And, I wonder what the chances are that physical law would permit a universe from existing in the first place? What are the chances that the universe is OTHER than a perfect vacuum and endless void? What are the chances that anything at all exists?

#

Anyway, thanks for all the responses, even though it ruined my probability curve. I hope this post brightened your day, because I DO think we are all lucky to be alive and sharing this moment in time, regardless of how dismal this world may sometimes appear.

Christ, Buck get a life. What the hell is the point of this post. Read or not read just for a few meaningless stats. What a bloody waste of time.

Bye