What Are The Chances You Will Read This?

I'm just making a casual prediction here, but I would estimate with 85% likelihood that this post will receive between one and four flags, between four and sixteen replies, and two to five stars, within the next 30 days. This is just a guess. We will see.

#

But what is the actual probability that you (yes YOU specifically, my reader), will read this post? It's difficult to say, but I will estimate the following:


One chance in fifty that you will be logged in to see this post.
One chance in fifty that, if you are logged in, you will find this post and read it.


So I would estimate that there is about 1 chance in 250 that you, as a member of ATS, will read this post.

#

But I'm just getting started. Let's look at the big picture:


One chance in 10 that you were born into a country with Internet access, to join ATS.
One chance in 10,000 that you became a member of ATS in the first place.
One chance in 200,000 that ATS was even formed, for you to become a member of it
One chance in 1,000,000 that yhou were born in the first place.


(Likewise, the same goes for me, so we need to double those odds).

But then, consider:


One chance in 10,000 that I thought of this particular post.
One chance in 10^16 that life formed on this planet (according to Carl Sagan.)


So I would estimate the probability that you read this to be only one chance in 10 raised to the 3800th power that you were able to read this. Very improbable!

Congratulations! Today is your lucky day!

I'm first... woot woot...do I get pie?

I'm such a sheep; I'll wait to see what others do before I star and flag.

May I remind you that 95.3895673% of all statistics are wrong.

[edit on 1-7-2008 by whaaa]

Well, I don't know what the chances were (pretty slim, considering my present location /situation), but I - yes, specifically I, your reader - AM reading this.

Wanna a star?
You got it. :-)

hey , I would have been first but my phone rang and I had to put
off my post for a few minutes.

Originally posted by whaaa
I'm first... woot woot...do I get pie?

I'm such a sheep; I'll wait to see what others do before I star and flag.

May I remind you that 95.3895673% of all statistics are wrong.

[edit on 1-7-2008 by whaaa]

Punch and pie is down the hall to the right. I like this post, personally. Somehow, I think because of the title, more people will be inclined to read it. That's why I read it.

Nothing like telling someone they're not gonna do something to make them do it.

And i quoted whaaa on this because I believe his argument of 95% of statistics being wrong will be correct in this case.

[edit on 7/1/2008 by Mad_Hatter]

this is a shrodniger's cat (spelling) situation here.

how can you truly measure the results? you have already tainted the pool of evidence.
---------------------edit---------------

thats weird. I spelled the physicist name s h r o d n i g e r ' s, and it came out like it is shown above.

strange.

[edit on 1-7-2008 by JSR]

[edit on 1-7-2008 by JSR]

I have a question for the OP
I read this thread before anyone had responded to it
Then I didn't respond
then I went over to BTS
Read few threads there and here.
checked my email
made coffee
came back
check on this thread
went and checked out"how to make a killer thread" again on BTS
came back here and decided to tell you about it
And ask you the question what are the odds

So what are the odds of this happening ?

oh and I also edited this so i could edit this and can you include that in the odds


[edit on 1-7-2008 by The Utopian Penguin]

Eh-yup. I read it.

LOL! I like the statistics.

Wait a minute, BD... according to these data (demographics), the chances of being logged in etc. are not exactly 1/50.
How did you arrive at your calculations?

(As you may know, I am personally an admirer of your stat calculating skills, considering that, a few months ago, you took the time and effort to do a magnificent calculation of my odds regarding a certain string of "coincidences". )





[edit on 1-7-2008 by Vanitas]

Statistics are our friends!!


Starred and flagged for my own amusement

I starred, flagged, and replied so that your predictions were wrong! Now I will rant to prevent a one-liner.

The statistics were funny... but you wouldn't "double" anything. You would simply square the product of born and born in a country with internet. Then, of course multiply by the rest of your predictions. And take THAT number with the fact that we've had billions of years to get to this rarity!

2 posts for the price of 1! (EDIT: double post)

[edit on 1-7-2008 by pondrthis]

I'm still waiting for the statistics I requested
Are you avoiding posting them ?
Have you lost your statistical analysis abilities now that real world
events have been added the the equation?

After engaging in intense study and research of the statistics that the OP has
presented. I found that they were 100% correct within an 1% to 99% deviation
accounting for human deviation.

Heres my flag and a star

Good use of pscyhology. As far as the statistics are concerned, I've always been skeptical. Mainly for two reasons. If life is "destined" then statistics are irrelevant, because everything that will happen will and won't won't. Secondly, if life isn't predetermined, then statistics go on as you said. If that's true, then one day something horrendous is most likely going to happen to everyone, because statistically, it just has to, as eventually you'll fall into one of the "unlucky" individuals, like getting struck by lightening while surfing and being chased by a giant octopus. Statistics, depressing no matter what way you cut it. Peace.

I'm lucky I read this.

Seriously though, I'm glad I was born in a country with internet, and I was lucky enough not to be blind, and lucky enough to be able to use a computer, and to be born in the "computer age".

So I'm glad I'm able to read this, and reply, even if my reply is trivial, and does not add a heck of a lot of quality content.

In a multiverse you would have every available statistic, which makes it null and statistically insignificant. Maybe in another dimension, I didn't post this. Or posted twice, or I thought of this thread, or posted anon. Or or or....I also had a gander what you were getting at before I read it. It would have been better if the title wasn't so obvious. Maybe something totally different to your OP.

Woah, hey! Looks like you have a good grip on Statistical Analysis of Forum Development.

What made it popular is that you said nothing but the complete truth and it was obvious.

Good job!

Originally posted by MrMysticism
Woah, hey! Looks like you have a good grip on Statistical Analysis of Forum Development.

What made it popular is that you said nothing but the complete truth and it was obvious.

Good job!

hey, I can't figure out what your avi is? What are the chances it is a badger biting Conan's butt?

Flagged, starred and replied.


Interesting thread.

reply to post by seagrass


It a Louis Royo art. The one that did the begining issues of Heavy Metal Magazine.