posted on Jul, 1 2008 @ 12:36 PM
I'm just making a casual prediction here, but I would estimate with 85% likelihood that this post will receive between one and four flags, between
four and sixteen replies, and two to five stars, within the next 30 days. This is just a guess. We will see.
But what is the actual probability that you (yes YOU specifically, my reader), will read this post? It's difficult to say, but I will estimate the
One chance in fifty that you will be logged in to see this post.
One chance in fifty that, if you are logged in, you will find this post and read it.
So I would estimate that there is about 1 chance in 250 that you, as a member of ATS, will read this post.
But I'm just getting started. Let's look at the big picture:
One chance in 10 that you were born into a country with Internet access, to join ATS.
One chance in 10,000 that you became a member of ATS in the first place.
One chance in 200,000 that ATS was even formed, for you to become a member of it
One chance in 1,000,000 that yhou were born in the first place.
(Likewise, the same goes for me, so we need to double those odds).
But then, consider:
One chance in 10,000 that I thought of this particular post.
One chance in 10^16 that life formed on this planet (according to Carl Sagan.)
So I would estimate the probability that you read this to be only one chance in 10 raised to the 3800th power that you were able to read this. Very
Congratulations! Today is your lucky day!