Oil is a bubble and will drop back to $50

I love the way the original post talks about Venizuala miss managing oil production.

WTF about USA not selling its own oil to its own people. At least Chavez has the balls to give the US the finger. If you want to look at the mismangement of oil production look no further than US energy Policy and its protocol of purchasing from other countries resources through infrastructure loans through large Corporations.

Please your Source for this post is so one sidedly bias.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander
For perspective, the Saudis have 260 billion barrels of proven reserves.

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This is a lie due to the fact that they list the same amount of reserves
year after year, and they have not had any major recent finds.

Back in the 60's they went through Saudi Arabia and did Seismic
operations to detect all the oil underground.

Sound travels at different speeds through oil, and it visible on the
high resolution displays they use.

In 1970 the US peaked at around 10 million barrels a day, and since
then it has fallen to about 5 million barrels a day.

57 countries world wide are past peak.

The only new find of any size was the Northern Arctic one that is being
fought over by Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada and the US.

Go to google video and watch "Crude Awakening" - life after the oil crash,
it is about 82 min.

The Great Depression had plenty of oil supply, keep that in mind.

China and India are coming online as the new oil consumers,
demand is going up while supply is going down.

At some point companies like Coskata & Valcent can start scaling up
their bio fuels, but for now we are in for a bumpy ride for awhile.

reply to post by Anonymous ATS


You state that we have fallen to 5million barrels a day in oil use. I was under the impression by a very credited scientific magazine that approximately 88million* barrels are used every day, from a quick Google search i see that the US is though to be using 20million** barrels a day alone on Car fuel.

Fox

I apologize if i have misinterpreted your post in any way.
*Figure From New Scientists Magazine, Weekly Magazine in the UK.
**Figure From US Government's Energy Information Administration.

Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
For perspective, the Saudis have 260 billion barrels of proven reserves.

And since 'proven reserves' is the figure that almost no serious analyst will dispute it's what most countries use to hide the scale of whatever reserves they might consider a strategic asset and thus not disclose.

This is a lie due to the fact that they list the same amount of reserves
year after year, and they have not had any major recent finds.

In fact Saudi Arabia now claims reserves of more than a trillion barrels and i have no reason to believe that it isn't there. If you can propose some reasoning as to why i should doubt the Saudi government feel free.

Back in the 60's they went through Saudi Arabia and did Seismic
operations to detect all the oil underground.

Nonsense. Do you think us complete fools?

Sound travels at different speeds through oil, and it visible on the
high resolution displays they use.

So you are now telling us that oil exploration results in so many dry holes because they know exactly where all the oil is and how to get to it? Feel free to explain how that works.

In 1970 the US peaked at around 10 million barrels a day, and since
then it has fallen to about 5 million barrels a day.

The US produced less and less oil past the 70's but since that was by no means a natural peak, arguments can be made that it wasn't economic at the time to exploit deeper reserves, you are free to just keep claiming that peak in production in fact means a peak in available resources.

57 countries world wide are past peak.

List them please along with their peak years as well as solid evidence that no more oil has been found or will be found with sufficient investment.

The only new find of any size was the Northern Arctic one that is being fought over by Russia, Denmark, Norway, Canada and the US.

Laughable claims at best considering how well reserves keeps growing year on year. Please explain to us why oil is about the run out after just a hundred years of use while Coal shows no sign of running out after a few hundred and steel are still mined by the millions of tons four thousand year after it first came in vogue. How can you believe in peak oil yesterday or tomorrow?

Go to google video and watch "Crude Awakening" - life after the oil crash,it is about 82 min.

More pointless propaganda that not only doesn't offer any viable solutions but goes nearly berserk trying to come up with the worse imaginable consequences of a restricted oil supply.

The Great Depression had plenty of oil supply, keep that in mind.

And the great depression had nothing to do with oil and everything to do with banks withdrawing money from the Us economy. Sure we might see more of those in the future but i wont be fooled and neither should you.

China and India are coming online as the new oil consumers,
demand is going up while supply is going down.

Supply is easily keeping pace with demand despite wars of aggression ( by the US national security state) against oil producing nations and staged disruptions of oil production in other regions. The fact is that every time world oil producers increase their supply at some cost to themselves ( prices will drop if the market becomes flooded so it's in no oil producers interest to do so) something strange happens to one oil producer or another. I am confident that the nations in question have gotten the message and that they are quite happy just raking in the profits instead of pointlessly risking their economies by introducing more to the markets than agreements allow them.

In a truly free world market oil producers would slump back to the 10- 30 USD range within months.

At some point companies like Coskata & Valcent can start scaling up
their bio fuels, but for now we are in for a bumpy ride for awhile.

Bio fuels is yet another deliberate effort to create shortages in the commodity markets; if they can't get to you trough high fuel prices they will use that as excuse to turn your formerly cheap food into expensive fuel.

Stellar

Originally posted by StellarX

Bio fuels is yet another deliberate effort to create shortages in the commodity markets; if they can't get to you trough high fuel prices they will use that as excuse to turn your formerly cheap food into expensive fuel.

Stellar

Amen. We are being fleeced. Soundly, and roundly. Anyone remember this technology? It wasnt highly publicized, but all the science lovers out there should remember it.

"Anything into oil," where not valuable food crops, but waste products are turned into oil.

discovermagazine.com...

For Brian Appel—and, maybe, for an energy-hungry world—it's a dream come true, better than turning straw into gold. The thermal conversion process can take material more plentiful and troublesome than straw—slaughterhouse waste, municipal sewage, old tires, mixed plastics, virtually all the wretched detritus of modern life—and make it something the world needs much more than gold: high-quality oil.

This is a reprint, I believe the first time I saw it in a popular science magazine was late 2000/early 2001. At todays oil prices, and with Americas problem with waste material in general, this should be front page news, and we should be working our butts off to make it feasible, long before we begin turning valuable food crops into fuel.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander



biz.yahoo.com...

$121 and climbing......has world tensions finally reversed the 1 month slide?

Put on your go back hat and remember when oil had no use when first found. Now they fill there coffers by destroying countries and killing people for it.

Lindsey Williams involved with Exxon said it, the former head of shell oil John Hofmeister said it, there is no peak oil. There is oil to be had and peak oil is not true.

John Hofmeister, former head of shell oil quote "we have not achieve peak oil yet" from the Glenn Beck show august 8, 08.

It is a small group of super rich working together manipulating the market.
they buy low and then use false stories to drive up the price.
when the price get to a point that the market is about to crash they pull out or change there investments to bet the market will drop.

You can make money on a stock or commodity future when it is going down.
its called short selling.
Right now they are working the oil futures and the stock market. selling short.
when they think things have hit rock bottom they will get together and plan a day to stop selling short and start buying stocks at the bottom. and running them up.
Then when stock reach a point that a point that growth slows they will crash the market again same with oil or any stock, or commodity, metals price, they want to manipulate.
but by working together they control enough money to be able to manipulate the markets just by buying and selling.

Of the 10 richest people 5 are from the same family.

The rich get richer
www.newsdaily.com...
When someone has a loss on the market that money does not disappear.
For ever lost someones getting rich.
And its not always because they play by the rules and laws.
When you are a multinational you do your deals in countries that are safe.

I think so too. In this sad state of economy it will finally go way back down because the people investing in it to hedge against the falling stock market will finally realize that the small people have cut way back on using it, making it very over abundant and worth much less.

Now gold...Well just wait and see!

Well Bandit, your prediction may just come true yet.

Oil drops to below $80 a barrell

I've been watching this along with the massive selloff on the markets and it doesn't look like oil has bottomed out yet. Demand has/is falling.

Indeed it has, and price trends continue to fall. Gas here in Eastern Iowa has dropped to $2.73, with the cheapest being $2.69.

reply to post by GAOTU789


But this is due as the global markets are falling also, so when the bail outs all over the world starts to work for the banks oil will start to rise again.

At least for the time being we should just enjoy the ride.

reply to post by marg6043


Maybe, maybe not.
You also have to account for new resources, and nations leaving OPEC.
Just want to make sure all the bases are covered.

reply to post by GAOTU789


Well, it's not exactly my prediction, but just one that I agree with. It sure looks like it's going that way now.

Lets not get too overjoyed with lower oil prices just yet! As soon as the speculators have covered their bases in the markets and some stability returns ( right now you can make money far faster and with less overhead in the market in general ) they might return in force to drive up oil prices. At the current rate there isn't all that much they can do to shore up prices as all reserves are basically filled to capacity ( private and industrial ) with supply now being met by even greater margins than it used to.

If the financial volatility continues they are probably going to need another war or serious crisis to get sufficient oil off the market to create renewed artificial fears of shortages.

Either way those who aren't having financial difficulties don't much care about the energy prices and the one's that do have stopped going on vacation some time ago...

Stellar

seeing what has been in the news lately, we need to find anyway to drive those prices down. If we are so out to get iran.. then why the hell don't we floor the market by any means available? if the stuff slides $20 cheaper the very countries we're so "against" would be pulled into deficit territory.

Anyways, just wanted to get that out. If you don't want Iran to have a nuke, then stop paying the bastards. And we should enjoy this while it lasts, we got a little break.

reply to post by TheBandit795


It's dropping back because the economy tanked. If/when the economy recovers so will energy demand, and the price of oil will go through the roof again, but even worse, because the demand from China and India will be even greater, IF we don't do something to address our reliance on oil.

There is no reason we can't or shouldn't as we have both the technology and resources necessary to convert our economy to clean renewable energy sources, we lack only the political will to do so.

reply to post by TheBandit795


Looks like this OP was right!

I just hope Lindsey Williams isn't right too. I'm loving the cheap gas, but not what it might do to the dollar.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

connect the dots...

[edit on 20/11/2008 by kosmicjack]