They say a little optimism can go a long way and I have to admit initially this theory did cheer me up, but when I thought about it the author really is not sticking his neck out here.

Crucially the time frame has been neglected, you see I could say hey we will no longer have to depend on fossil fuels in the future and I will be right but when would I be right.

I suppose that is the clever part if you can predict commodity prices then you would be a rich person, is this guy rich ?

I can only say I would like him to be right

George Soros gave an interview a few weeks ago and said the same thing. Sorry, can't find the link but it's in the awesome speculation thread by Justin Oldman and DonWhite.

I'm not sure what to think but I sure hope it's true.

All the banksters bailed out of the mortgage and lending stocks and moved into commodities because they are not regulated in the same way. Now everyone gets what they are doing so the question is - Where will they go next to fleece the world of its money?

Flagged. Starred. Keep posting this.

Our economy has been bubble-driven at least since the dot-com bubble appeared on the scene. We simply have too many people with too much money trying to make more without doing any productive work. While I can't blame them too much, I can blame the economy and the ignorance of the populus for allowing it to happen at such an alarming rate.

• The dot-com bubble was started by a sudden realization that the Internet was a way to reach more customers, without having to maintain costly real-estate based stores/warehouses. It busted because the investors were too lazy to research claims and the fly-by-night Internet stores were only interested in making cash off lazy investors and not running a business,
  
  
• The housing bubble occurred when the same investors began looking at real estate as a way to make their big bucks without working. The 'no money down' crowd took full advantage of this untapped marketplace full of investment dollars, and again made the real money. This bubble is just now collapsing and it will be a dark day when it finally does collapse.
  
  
• The gold bubble is expanding as well, again with dozens of gold-traders vie for investors in the booming metals market. Investors are eager to put their dollars here, because it is touted as a hedge against economic collapse. It is, but it will also crash as everything else crashes and the money supply dwindles.
  
  
• Oil is the latest bubble, for those who think the economy will continue. unfortunately for them, the economy will not continue, and oil will drop, I believe, back to $20 a barrel before all is said and done. The ironic thing is that it is the very price of oil that will be the trigger for the coming collapse, as it is the one thing that affects every single aspect of the economy.
  
  
• Thanks kosmicjack. Water will indeed probably be the next bubble. As I see it, AlGore and his ilk are jealous of the wads of cash 'made' by those who are in control of the latest investment fad, so they are creating their own fad. Carbon credits, water, wind turbines, etc., etc., etc. will definitely be the next bubble.
  

Keep posting, my friend. Every person who finally understands what is happening is another person who we can perhaps save from total devastation.

TheRedneck

(edited to include the last item)


[edit on 19-6-2008 by TheRedneck]

In regards to the New Car gas savings.

I could be wrong, but my calculations only put the savings around $700-800 dollars per year, based on current pricing (average)

So the New Car Dealers are out about $ 1200-1600 for every car sold under this arrangement.

Doesn't seem like all that much to me, cost of A/C option for most cars.

i wish what you said was correct, but unfortunatly it is not. in order for oil to hit $50 a barrel the dollar would have to be worth what it was back in 1999 or 1998. inflation is the reason for oils rise, and inflation is only going upwards. oil is not really "worth" much more than it was back then it is just what we gauge its worth with has been devalued.

Maybe we should start investing in a different economy. I hear hydrogen is making its debut as an economy (as opposed to the current Gas Economy) in Southern California with the new Honda FCX Clarity being leased to the public. I know for a fact that the cost of hydrogen (with production taken into account) is the same cost as Gas was in 2006 AND you can make a solar powered hydrogen generator. Its as clean as you can get.

I believe it, the prediction of the next bubble to crash will be the energy bubble.

Buy if Bush gets away with opening land for drilling, the new wave of speculators call the wildcatters will drive the gas prices up again.

So we just have to wait and see.

I work at a luxury automobile store in the Pacific Northwest, gas prices have taken a major toll on the automotive industry. Relatively new Kias are selling for more at auctions then what you could have bought them new a year ago. If you have a big V8 truck or SUV and you want to trade it in we are hitting it, for sometimes, $10k below book value; our pre-owned inventory of big SUVs and trucks are mostly advertised for losses. I would hope that oil will go down, but $50 a barrel I doubt. The U.K. is paying almost $10 a gallon for diesel, their fuel costs have been going up for years. Gas may go down 50 cents to a dollar a gallon, I think that’s the best we will get for know, but eventually it will go up again. This is something we have to live with and our entire country is going to have to alter their lifestyles. The world is evolving, millions in china and other countries, for the first time, can own an automobile. Oil, like diamonds and platinum, is something you get from earth and we only have so much. Until we can come up with a means of producing synthetic fuel at an affordable cost our lives will have to adjust to higher oil prices.

Gas will be $5.00a gallon this summer and it could keep going up, (Premium is $4.96 a gallon where I live). Any major alternatives are still five to ten years away; we need to adapt. Oil affects more then just cars. The boating industry, which is very important to the Puget Sound summer economy, is taking a hit. Owner/operators of semi trucks are paying $1300 to fill their rigs.

We will see the railroad industry experience a second renaissance. One gallon of diesel will move one ton of railroad freight about 360 miles. Like Europe, trains will be all over the place. Check out your local commuter rail, I bet its filled near capacity.

Motorcycles and scooters are turning into transportation rather then recreation. My bike gets nearly 60-mpg. They think I’m joking at work when I talk about adding a scooter franchise to our pre-owned department.

Unless we create a viable competitor to gasoline, which will force them to drive down prices, we will have to deal with $5 a gallon gas. Since OPEC really has no competition they can do whatever they want.

“Grandpa, tell me about those things called Hummers.”

Originally posted by sty
the fact is that the global demand of petrol is higher than the available resources.

It's not and if there has been any shortages on world markets they have not only been exceedingly small but also largely due to the war in Iraq and other similar large scale ARTIFICIAL supply disruptions and NOT because there is not oil to be had in ground at such still extraordinary cheap rates.

We would need to double the petrol output in order to keep the price to 50$ during the next 20 years. Well.. this will not happen..

That's just nonsense and it in fact deserves to be called a blatant and obvious lie. If you are not aware knowingly spreading misinformation or lies is against the rules of this board. Not that i will need help to point out just how absurd such a claim is but now you wont be able to claim that you didn't know know any more about this boards operation than you do about the oil business.

Stellar

Originally posted by TheRepublic
i wish what you said was correct, but unfortunatly it is not. in order for oil to hit $50 a barrel the dollar would have to be worth what it was back in 1999 or 1998. inflation is the reason for oils rise, and inflation is only going upwards. oil is not really "worth" much more than it was back then it is just what we gauge its worth with has been devalued.

your exacty correct...

the fair price for a barrel of oil since the 70's inflation and devaluation of the USD has been found to be $124.00 per bbl...
not far from the present window of $129-139 per bbl... which actually includes the fear of war factor and the surge in demand by China and India

When and If the USD becomes stronger and of higher value ... then perhaps a $100 per bbl could be the new benchmark price




Afterthought:

the price of "50" might be in Euros
but i don't see oil at 50 USDollars

[edit on 20-6-2008 by St Udio]

Well today in the news they say that 50 dollars is nothing but a dream, oil prices will never be under 100 dollars ever again.

Now this are the speculators talking and the big proponents of offshore drilling.

It means that even with new drilling in the US we are still going to have over 100 dollars oil prices.

This is great news.