Global Economic Crash Late July!

This was posted in 06.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

and in 07

www.abovetopsecret.com...


I bet I can find one for 05 even.

Man if this is serious... im SCREWED. Im just finally paying off my ceditcards and have only a few more to go. *SIGH*

[edit on 19-6-2008 by mrfire9]

If I may end this on a light note...this too shall pass. If we crash (and I believe we will) it will pass, we'll ultimately survive and carry on.

The problem will be what shall be done in the intervention to forever change America as a government and society and the West as well. Will we do away with paper money and go to subcutoneous inbeded scanning chips (which is a big fear among Christian Fundamentals as the Mark of the Beast)? Will we allow our country to be, even symbolically, absorbed into the EU? Will an American version of the EU be put on the fast track with a new currency (the Amero) coming into play? Will we harken ourselves to England in the 1700's and 1800's and create forced work camps and debtor prisons for those who can't afford thier mortages, their credit card payments, their high-def, big screened mama televisions and four-wheeled super-charged SUVs? Will bikes and horses become the bourgoise method of transportation? Are we quickly approaching the day where it may be impossible to visit friends and family even a state away?

What this situation really illustrates is just how fragile society is. That's not hyperbole, that's a fact. In some cases, we the people have a remarkable ability to handle major events and stresses. But when multiple crises occur, one after another in quick successon, how long before our backs break?

Let's look at the facts -- first housing crashes, then the financial industry buckles; on top of that we have a federal government hamstrung in a Mideast quagmire; spending billions a month and unable to meet the immediate needs of millions from repeated natural disasters, which seem to be occurring with frightening frequency; now we have commodities from oil to corn rising at the fastest rates in history; we have a federal government that proves it is willing to bend and even break the constitution for the sake of "security."

Really, I've been amazed how much our country has been able to absorb and just keep chugging along. But when will that one event, the one that just will be too much to handle, happen? And what will be the result?

I am stunned!

That's nothing new !

Never ever had a look at larouchepac.com ?
This global collapse was predicted by LaRouche 2-3 years ago.
To understand the whole money system you would need to read 2 years and more of all of LaRouches article's. Good luck.

The oil price and why it is growing:
Imagine "someone" bought off all the oil production for a period of time (lets say one year) in advance. Guess what would happen...
"He" would have the power of controlling the prices.
...and that is not even imagination but reality.

As i said before..
the roots of the evil are the british globalists, the elite or whatever you wanna call them. (Not to confuse with british population. I have nothing against them) Their mindset of colonial power is not history, but present.

It's all about human control, like some pointed out already. It's about the reduction of population. But that's not made with oil, but with food. Which is more powerful in this case.

Yeah, and how to force those things ? Nothing better then a global finance collapse.

Don't think I'm crazy saying someone would kill 1 billion people. That's not something i said, but those in the bilderberger groups meetings (our govs to be exact)

To many govs are controlled by fashism by now... and even worst.



Maybe you should have a look at the video "firewall" which describe the whole finance system and its big BOOOM.

take care...

Add to your list natural disasters. I read somewhere a while back an essay on how our downfall will not be so dramatic but will be as a result of the inability to overcome a series of disasters or bad circumstances such as listed. And when you think about it, it all really started downhill with Katrina. New Orleans is not fully recovered or rebuilt and it showed a weakness in the CorpGov's ability to manage a crisis. Ever since then, they have missed one opportunity after another to either prevent or fix a problem.

And for those who would say that this bell has been rung on ATS before, I agree. The difference is, this is now being corroborated by major financial institutions.

[edit on 19/6/2008 by kosmicjack]

There would have been a crash in August of 07 on OPEX if there had not been surprise FED intervention. Someone leaked the information the day before the FED announcement and anyone watching the market that day saw a huge turnaround intraday. The FED has since crippled itself by loaning out a good portion of its most liquid assetts in an attempt to save the BBB's, and backed itself into a corner where it can either poor gas on a fire by printing (not quite that simple but that's the easiest way to explain) or hurt the rest of the economy by raising rates (either directly through raising the FFR or indirectly by selling long dated treasuries into the open market). Bernake's most potent policy tool at the moment is his voice. However, after making statements like "The Sub-prime problem is contained" last summer that tool is a bit impotent.

Originally posted by jefwane
Bernake's most potent policy tool at the moment is his voice. However, after making statements like "The Sub-prime problem is contained" last summer that tool is a bit impotent.

I wholeheartedly agree. The Fed has lost a lot of credibility on the world stage. I think a prime example of this is the current Fed - ECB clash.

In the end, I don't see how the Fed can avoid raising rates, given inflation (by its own words, Enemy No. 1). And like the original premise of RCB, we know inflation is bad, but it hasn't been quite reflected in the numbers just yet. That shock is coming next month and we'll see Wall Street act accordingly (major shock and then depression as Fed moves to hike rates).

Well well well... looks like the survivalist merchandise economy is actually plummeting these days! Like a little market boom in the midst of an impending global economic doom... How ironic.

reply to post by kosmicjack

We are approaching the most serious economic crisis since the great depression, and American life is going to be disrupted in ways that we cannot now imagine. The reason is that there is too much debt, and the new bankruptcy law means that, because those debts can never be discharged, the economy will never get the chance to restart itself that has brought it out of so many slumps in the past. What is worse, the ordinary American debtor is not to blame. There is only one debtor to blame. It is the federal debtor.

www.unknowncountry.com...

i said it in this thread and was ignored!

we are not in a recission, i agree, we are now in a depression. please read my post above regarding the downward spiral since march, 2007!

www.abovetopsecret.com...&mem=musselwhite

"Really, I've been amazed how much our country has been able to absorb and just keep chugging along. But when will that one event, the one that just will be too much to handle, happen? And what will be the result?"

Haven't those questions been asked at the depths of each economic crisis? (Do you remember the 1970's, for example? Gas stations right and left drying up. Interest rates soared. Construction stopped. You *do* remember, right, behindthescenes?) And they'll be asked in the future.

Fair questions. But excuse me if I don't get worked up over it.....again.

Originally posted by jefwane
When all this started, the FED started to push a little used facility called the "discount window" that had historically been available but taboo to be seen using. This wasn't enough so they created different facilities that would allow various institutions to bring collateral ( of no one but the FED knows quality) in exchange for the FED's treasuries. This has (in my uneducated opinion) impaired the FED's balance sheet (that they use to defend the Fed funds rate )and risks contaminating US treasury notes, bills, and bonds. The implications of this are dark and disturbing.

That was the beginning of the end IMO. The first rumbles in February '07 and then the big event in August. Most people don't understand that an economic crash is not an event but a process.

Many think that they will wake up to a headline one day that will proclaim the event as having taken place. A process is slow enough that people's hubris blinds them to the outcome. That is what's going on. People are just waking up and are blinking, rubbing their eyes and scratching their heads in confusion and looking for someone to blame (That's when things get worse as demand for quick solutions and stupid politicians try to placate an angry public). There are still people (some in this very thread) who are claiming everything will be fine. It won't. Things are going to get progressively worse until the old system is broken and a new one is put in it's place.

Originally posted by jefwane
I initially thought that the FED would be able to hold up the markets and economy through the election, but they've blown through thier balance sheet so quickly I think the crash may happen this year. There is currently a confirmed hindy on the clock so we could see a market crash in the next few months.

My call was also for real pain to be felt in '09 (made in many posts - also see my initial call for another great depression made back in 2004 when oil began it's rise).

However, this confirmed hindy has me worried. I take it you are referring to the Credit Default Swaps problem? Please elaborate.
.

[edit on 6/19/2008 by Gools]

>> Lots of land in the US is "leased" to Big Oil for future drilling. Forget Anwar, there is lots of places un-drilled that could be Drilled. Either it is too expensive to get at, or the investment in Oil doesn't make sense since they believe we will be going to alternatives sooner rather than later. Big Oil is investing in another precious commodity that people need; water. The same game will be played -- but we can do without oil, we cannot do without water -- long or short term. The refineries haven't been upgraded or new ones added for 25 years. The claims of "environmentalist legislation" has got to be a cheap shot -- have you noticed ANY improvement or concern for the environment for the last 5 years? Apparently, if it weren't for spotted owls in the NorthWest, Polar Bears and Karibou over oil fields in the icy north, and, I don't know maybe Prairy Dogs at all the refineries -- our nation would be a super powerhouse right now -- RIGHT! An Oil Man in the White House, a Bankster/Offshore Accountant as VP, the Coal Lobbyist heading the EPA, and on down the line -- nothing but Industry flunkies at the helm and you are telling me, that mean old Green Peace stopped these guys? Wow, how could they have invaded two countries for bogus reasons in all this time?

There is tightening in oil supply, most nations have reached their peak production levels, and the next oil they pull out of the ground will take more effort and money to acquire. As well, the dollar has lost about 60% in value -- meaning more fiat paper to purchase oil. But gas has about doubled in Europe as well. China is using more.

But we have military bases in Iraq that have more air traffic than most of our top ten airports. THAT is a huge pressure on kerosene.

There is some reduction in crop yields in the near future because of the flooding and blight -- Myanmar itself is responsible for 10% of the worlds rice.

But the real reason for the cost of oil and commodities like corn is speculation. Financial Institutions got too greedy and Mortgage companies did the same. The desire to get rich quick led to every company everywhere, expecting 15% year over year increases. More resources, more profits. Notice all those extra fees at the bank? I can only think of a few companies that haven't tried to gouge the consumer while the Government stared like a deer in the headlights.

So, to feed the profits, costs had to be reduced. Everything outsourced to cheaper places. Places far away I might add -- a great, evil idea if gas is cheap. America is hollowed out, while short-term minded people in government sold roads to foreign investors. We are hollowed out.

The LAST THING, that has real value, is commodities. So the investors had to put their money somewhere -- their whole economic system is based upon the "Greater Fool" -- for a speculator to make a profit, they have to have experts on financial shows to hawk some great deal and get someone else to buy it for more than they paid. But if they speculate on futures for grains and oil -- someone is eventually going to HAVE TO buy it.

Right now there are oil tankers sitting off the US coast full of oil waiting to be processed. The oil in them is owned by speculators, who want a lot of money at some future date -- maybe a few months. It's likely we will find that the oil companies have speculated on their own oil. As long as someone is going to pay $170 per barrel -- it is a great plan.

The government could be dealing with this issue right now, and bring prices back to sanity -- but they won't, because it means pain for the people with lots of money, who wanted a whole lot more money without working for it --- they must NEVER be forced to suffer. The economic crashes in this country are precipitated by speculation, and always created by attempts of people in power trying not to pay for it.

>> CONTINUED >>>

>>> CONTINUED >>>
Think about a liquidity crisis,... how can there NOT be money if Bear Sterns sold a lot of bad loans to people and had extortionist rates? They have the property as collateral, and they have all the money they took for little effort -- so where did the money go? Into a better deal. Instead of throwing their own profits at their own bad investments to cover them, these Elites are going to have the money safely sitting in offshore accounts. Think about it; if MasterCard is charging 40% extortionary fees to customers of its credit card -- but the dollar loses 60% in value, the better deal is to use that money somewhere else.

The reserve requirement right now is borrowed money -- that's right, it is negative. To me, that indicates that Banksters found a better deal. No matter how much the Government pumps printed money into these institutions, they are going to find a better deal in a country that isn't "hollowed out" by outsourcing all of its manufacturing and production.

Part of that solution was China. But the conundrum is; what is China going to do with all that infrastructure they built, that was really inefficient, when Big Bucks Americans aren't buying anymore, and their CHEAP labor eventually wants more money? I'm sure the "lazy, greedy poor" propaganda that has flooded the US will have less of a foothold in China. But I'm sure it will be tried. The people there cannot criticize their government -- but they can get angry at local administrators as can be seen after their huge earth quake. So, China has a long way to drop pretty soon.

I predict that, at the end of the summer, people will be changing habits. I think that right up to August or September, these gas stocks will make huge money and then drop. Perhaps the speculators will be holding the bag, as a huge decrease in gas purchases leaves them with tankers of overpriced stock.

Either this country is going to go into the "fight to eat" mercenary model, or it will be an FDR style Public Works infrastructure model -- I know which one I would prefer. But the military is very fond of all the resources they get and wars they start. Things are going to get dicey this fall.

>> Those talking about previous "the sky is falling" claims on ATS.... I can only say that the economy SHOULD HAVE FAILED earlier. The efforts to prop it up are making the fall that much worse. The Smart Money has had more opportunity to get out of dodge and sell off the country to greater fools (taxpayers, who have no option when the Corporate controlled government bails these people out). Our military acquisitions and ability to inflict pain on other countries has been what is backing our currency. The US moved from the Petrol-Dollar to the War-Dollar under George Bush. By spying on politicians, they have compromised and extorted the Republicans and Democrats to back this plan while pretending to appose it on the surface.

McCain is likely to win the next election but only through massive fraud -- half of the Republicans I have met -- even the really stupid ones, are planning to vote Democratic. So well will see if they can pull this off.

reply to post by musselwhite


In future, I wish for you not to post immature 5 year old comments on my ATS profile like you have some sort of attention disorder Secondly, read the article and understand a stock market crash is being predicted - not your little super duper depression

As gools correctly pointed out, economic crashes take a decade. The economic crash in Argentina took a few years. And I hate to make you cry, you didn't predict anything in your wannabe "du jour" thread...someone suggested it back in 2002 on ATS.

Next time, do not abuse my profile in order to get my attention.


[edit on 19-6-2008 by infinite]

Gools

The credit default swap problem is definately a ticking time bomb. There have been a couple of lawsuits already, and it is doubtfull that the institutions who wrote the CDS's are capitalized adequately enough to pay off on even a fraction of thier obligations. I expect this situation to keep lawyers and forensic accountants busy for years. The only thing that may save the insurers is if they can prove there was fraud involved by the people they insured.

Hindenberg Omen

Here is a PDF giving a little better color to the Hindenberg signal. I'm still learning in regards to Technical Analysis but when you have 26 signals and only one of which failed to predict a substantial decline you take notice. So far we've had a cluster of 3 Hindy's over the past week or so. The source article on here came out the night after the last one.

Edit ugh don't know what happened the pdf is at the bottom of the Wiki article. Titled mcHugh's guest available article

[edit on 19-6-2008 by jefwane]






Mod Edit: Hyperlink format - Jak

[edit on 19/6/08 by JAK]

reply to post by infinite
no problem infinite. just delete the comment on your profile page....you know the one.

the articles posted remain and my opinion is the same.

I think RBS is right. We have seen the first problems made by the credit crunch, but not yet the REAL TROUBLE. Until now only banks and financial institutions have felt the problems caused by the credit crunch. In the future it is likely to affect also other parts of the economy.

The credit crunch makes it more difficult to borrow money. In addition to this the high inflation leads to higher household costs. Combine this and the spending of consumers on luxury products will decrease sharply.

There is a cycle that continues to go further down and further down. First some people could not afford their houses. Then even more people could not afford their houses. First people in the construction and real estate business lose their jobs. Because of this there are less consumer spending. Because there are less consumer spending people in different areas also lose their jobs. Because they lose their jobs even more people cannot afford their homes. This leads to another decreasing value of house prices...

Yes, we are in a cycle downwards. I never understood why the Dow Jones still had 13,000 points a couple of weeks ago. Probably, because they thought that the credit crunch would only affect financial institutions. In the future it is likely that the credit crunch also affects different markets. Right now the Dow Jones it is already down from 13,000 to 12,000 point in a couple of weeks time. But sooner or later a larger decline is coming.

You are on ignore musslewhite. Don't you dare post stupid comments on my profile again, trying to get me into this thread. May be you will mature on your 16th birthday, but I fear your idiocy will prevail.

I am not going to waste my time entering a state of purgatory in order to justify your idiosyncratic behaviour of trying to get my attention. Any respect I had - which was faint after our last encounter - is well and truly dead now.

Please keep your distance from me in future. I never knew an ATS member could annoy me this much

Originally posted by infinite
reply to post by musselwhite

 

In future, I wish for you not to post immature 5 year old comments on my ATS profile like you have some sort of attention disorder

Secondly, read the article and understand a stock market crash is being predicted - not your little super duper depression

[edit on 19-6-2008 by infinite]

i don't think the idea is that far fetched

1. until house prices stop falling banks will be in trouble (late 2009?) and the big boys will be bailed out as some sort of consolidation of power likely occurs

2. any attack on Iran will send oil to 200$ plus and put a severe strain on global economy ( the odds for this may increase from summer-fall) as isreal GOVT knows that the next president may not have their back in the same G.w bush war-man sort of way.

the only way people may willingly accept a new ECO-Fascist style gov't is if the alternative proves to be more painful and a wide-spread crash would fit the bill

the only way people would accept a war against iran was if a attack that killed innocent americans was blamed on them and could also have the convenient timing of allowing the markets to tank.

the difference is i am not predicting this, i am merely saying i believe the chances are about 30% of something similiar to this occuring by november.

i wonder if the rothschild banker/agents are really stepping up their efforts to fleece the "eastern world" because the western world is about stuffed to their limits in debt.



[edit on 19-6-2008 by cpdaman]

musslewhite and infinite, please cease and desist. Take it to U2U's or get a room or something. Quit derailing the thread.

ON topic.

Thanks for the link Jef.
Technical analysis is definitely not my forté, I'm more about concepts.

Here is an interesting article I read recently on the CDS problem by Engdahl: CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS THE NEXT CRISIS - Sub Prime is Just 'Vorspeise'.

I also read somewhere recently (can't find it now) that the notional value of derivatives is approaching 1000 trillion. We're going to have to invent a new term for those kind of numbers (I thinks it's quadrillion?) :shk:
.