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Global Economic Crash Late July!

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posted on Jun, 26 2008 @ 03:17 PM
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Don't know if anyone else knows about this but some crazy stuff going on at this moment on wall street. Oil also hit 140 a barrel for the first time.. Read up here..

money.cnn.com...

money.cnn.com...

The dow sank 350 points also. It's second highest decrease so far this year

-ChriS

[edit on 26-6-2008 by BlasteR]




posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 12:25 AM
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I was away from the computer today but and missed most of the carnage. I was kinda surprised that it fell as far as it did today. Japan, Austrailia, hell all of Asia seem to be following through. I may stay up to see how Europe opens tonight. It could get interesting if this carries through Friday. Monday is the End of Quater and Half.

I'm hearing lots of rumors on the web and on TV. Hearing about a Bankruptcy amongst the big three. A Senator and a bank run. The Fed withdrawing liquidity. Worst June since Depression in markets.

Here is the one about the Senator. That's something you don't see everyday.


Schumer asked, for example, whether the FDIC has considered ordering IndyMac to reduce its reliance on brokered deposits, sold by securities firms to customers outside of a bank's local area, which can carry higher interest rates but also can be riskier than traditional deposit accounts because they may not fall within the federal insurance limit. Brokered deposits make up more than 37 percent of IndyMac's total deposits, according to Schumer's letter.


Wow, Im kinda stunned there. Not in the condition of Indymac, its demise will be no surprise to me, but a Senator mentioning a specific bank and it's solvency/ insured accounts status. That probably deserves a thread of it's own. It's pretty stunning actually.

Hmmm lots to digest tonight. No positions open of any signifigance so I'm personally on the sidelines (took profits on friday). I think we've pretty much establised that this is a Bear Market after these past couple of weeks. Friday and Monday should be interesting.



posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 02:50 AM
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Originally posted by jefwane
Tickerforum is the only website I've found valuable enough to donate to regularly.

Agreed. A year ago, I knew nothing about the stock market, and much less about corporate and government corruption. TF is one of my favorite places now.



posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 10:06 AM
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Here it is, ladies and gentlemen -- the Fed's back against the wall.

Now another major bank iswarning that we're in for a major inflation shock. And now, the Fed will have no choice but to raise rates.

This is exactly the percipitous reason we fell into the first Great Depression -- the Fed raised rates to reduce liquidity and caused wealth to spiral downward as banks were unable to cover losses. Bernanke -- the famed student of the Great Depression -- has said that was the Fed's biggest mistake (raising rates); and by inference, he wouldn't do that. And so far, he's held true -- cut rates and most recently, held things firm.

But when inflation fully rears its head, he's going to have to bow to pressure to increase the value of the dollar. And then watch the economy completely collapse.

You see, the Fed tried to battle what is essentially a market inevitable. You can't manage the deflation of a bubble. They tried the first time, when the tech bubble blew, and reduced rates to all time lows. Except all that did was dump liquidity into a market, and not only delay a recession, but in fact created an even greater hyper bubble that is dooming us all to what may amount to a lost decade.



This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

...

Mr Bond said the emerging world is now on the cusp of a serious crisis. "Inflation is out of control in Asia. Vietnam has already blown up. The policy response is to shoot the messenger, like the developed central banks in the late 1960s and 1970s," he said.

"They will have to slam on the brakes. There is going to be a deep global recession over the next three years as policy-makers try to get inflation back in the box."



Today, June 27, 2008, may go down in history as the watershed when the bottom finally fell off the world economy. Pray the bullets don't start flying...



posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 01:42 PM
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The fed does not have to raise intrest rates

The fed was created by wall street errr. old money european bankers as well.

The fed represent the big money intrests on wall street not joe 6 pack.

The financial media is mum about this because they like their jobs and salary and have families to feed and don't wish to be black listed.

The investment banks are trying to repair their balance sheets from the mortgage carnage by swapping their Worthless mortgage paper for Fed $ from which they use to drive up the price of oil. The regulators are the fox's guarding the hen house! Paulson is a gold man sachs former CEO! and now he is the treasury secretary. This is not some complex mystery folks, this is fraud and corruption.

The fed is overseeing and winking to a fleecing of the public to the oil and food tax because the CFTC (regulators are shills as well) allowed unrestricted speculation by investment banks into commodity's.

The only way the fed raises intrest rates is if they try to consolidate power among investment banks (giving the ceo's golden parachute's of course) because higher intrest rates are death for highly leveraged financial entity's.

The fed is between a rock and a hard place, raise rates and kill the banks and the economy, cut rates and watch commodity's rise even faster (if possible) , do nothing and watch commodity's rise faster as long as the ECB does not cut (and they wont cause their investment banks are making a killing in oil and food specuation as well!!!!!) and slow kill the economy.

WARNING as more people become "hip" to the nature of this scam/fraud and email/write their senators the CIA and othe intelligence agency's and their connection to the militarys of various country's may be itching to divert the public's attention with another attack (prob. blamed on iran) further padding the pockets of bankers/ gov't schills i.e paulson



[edit on 27-6-2008 by cpdaman]



posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 01:59 PM
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Originally posted by cpdaman

The investment banks are trying to repair their balance sheets from the mortgage carnage by swapping their Worthless mortgage paper for Fed $ from which they use to drive up the price of oil. The regulators are the fox's guarding the hen house! Paulson is a gold man sachs former CEO! and now he is the treasury secretary. This is not some complex mystery folks, this is fraud and corruption.

The fed is overseeing and winking to a fleecing of the public to the oil and food tax because the CFTC (regulators are shills as well) allowed unrestricted speculation by investment banks into commodity's.

[edit on 27-6-2008 by cpdaman]


You are spot on about this. That's why there is such resistence to allowing transparency of trades in the commodities markets. If it became mass public knowledge that Merrill Lynch, Goldman, etc. were essentially engineering a commodities boom to offset their subprime losses -- hence destroying low and middle-income consumers in the process -- there would be, I believe, a real chance for expansive, devastating social unrest in America.

But the more undergrounders and armchair economists like myself try to shout upon high about this, then maybe we can stop the "fleecing" as you put it before it crumbles us all...



posted on Jun, 27 2008 @ 01:59 PM
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Originally posted by cpdaman

The investment banks are trying to repair their balance sheets from the mortgage carnage by swapping their Worthless mortgage paper for Fed $ from which they use to drive up the price of oil. The regulators are the fox's guarding the hen house! Paulson is a gold man sachs former CEO! and now he is the treasury secretary. This is not some complex mystery folks, this is fraud and corruption.

The fed is overseeing and winking to a fleecing of the public to the oil and food tax because the CFTC (regulators are shills as well) allowed unrestricted speculation by investment banks into commodity's.

[edit on 27-6-2008 by cpdaman]


You are spot on about this. That's why there is such resistence to allowing transparency of trades in the commodities markets. If it became mass public knowledge that Merrill Lynch, Goldman, etc. were essentially engineering a commodities boom to offset their subprime losses -- hence destroying low and middle-income consumers in the process -- there would be, I believe, a real chance for expansive, devastating social unrest in America.

But the more undergrounders and armchair economists like myself try to shout upon high about this, then maybe we can stop the "fleecing" as you put it before it crumbles us all...



posted on Jun, 28 2008 @ 09:32 AM
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I was telling a coworker the other day that my theory is that banks were using the FED money to speculate in commodities to offset their huge loss in the mortgage arena instead of passing on low interest rates to the consumer. Rates have went up by 3/4 of a point since Bernanke's first rate cut. It is all but impossible to get approved for a mortgage these days unless you have 20% down, a solid 5 year history with your job and credit over 700-725. Banks just plain aren't lending to anyone but they sure are availing themselves of that cheap FED money now aren't they.

This is the greatest fleecing in American history and we all just sit by and watch them offset their losses in worthless mortgage paper by driving the cost of our food and energy through the roof. My neighborhood has been crushed by foreclosures and RAMPANT price declines. There is hardly a person in my 96 townhome development that has not foreclosed or is not upside-down on their loans, me included.

I bought at the bottom of the market in 2001 when these homes were first being built and still I've lost my shirt due to the irresponsibility of local, state, and federal governments to enforce the law against rampant illegal immigration. Now that there are no jobs, all of these illegals just walk away from their homes. This is just one small town with this problem. Multiply that by many thousands and thousands and it shows you what these banks are up against. This country will fail within 2 years. I have no doubts at all about it. Some areas will be worse than others, but it will fail. For now, I am just buying some things that I want to entertain myself while it unfolds, stocking food and ammo and am going to purchase a nice rifle and shotgun to go with my hand guns.

Hopefully this is just another 1970's unfolding, but I can't get over the scope of this mortgage mess and how we aren't even through 50% of it yet. Most people don't even seem to realize that. There are at least 2 more rounds of mortgage resets to come. I snicker at most of the 'conspiracy world is going to end nuts' I read about here, but with the things I see around me and how this area outside DC has dilapidated almost overnight, the price of oil and food.....makes me wonder.



posted on Jun, 28 2008 @ 11:12 AM
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Originally posted by Agit8dChop

"If you strip out anything stocks related to oil, energy and mining in the FTSE you will see that the market is already down by 30 per cent over the past year. We are in a bear market which has been masked by the performance of those sectors."


www.telegraph.co.uk.../money/2008/06/18/cmstockmarket18.xml

thats scary, because it sounds so real.

From my understanding, the 50's/100's stock's are simply an average measure on the top 50, top 100 companies..

if 40 of those companies drop 10% in a day ,and 10 companies rise 20% in a day ( The 10 being oil and the 40 being industry/financial ) the real loss would be masked.

Now, OIL has been rising massivley, and for the last couple of months the economy has been neither rising nor falling dramatically.

.... that statement above rings more true than i want to believe.



That is pretty close. actually the S&P 500 is made up of about 13% energy stocks. That is up from about 7-8% a few years ago. So stocks outside of the energy sector have fallen much more than the averages. Likewise, when everything reverses, oil will drag down the indexes until it once again represents only 7-8% or less of it's composition.

I will remind everyone that all this talk was also going on in March and the markets have just now come back to the lows they saw in March. I view this as a great time for long term investors (anyone under 65) to start loading up on stocks funds. If you are 40, chances are you have another 40+ years to grow and then spend your money. Your money needs to be invested in something and it needs to grow enough to give you the lifestyle you desire. What you should be asking is where the markets will be in 25 years when you retire and start pulling income. Most people are unsuccesful in trading, just watch how many people end up getting burnt in energy. It will be just like tech and housing and tulips (for those who know what im talking about). When I hear people say energy can not go down, I just laugh like I did at those who said you can never lose money in Real Estate.

Keep the faith. These declines occur every 6-7 years on average. Some are steeper than others but a few years later the markets always end up higher. Just keep buying and one day you will be rewarded. The same things that make people seem smart right now, will end up making the same people seem really dumb. I will continue buying the broad markets and enjoying life, rather than trying to chase after one hot sector after another.



posted on Jun, 30 2008 @ 12:34 AM
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You can buy now if you don't need that money for several years. Actually I was hoping for a temporary rally in stocks but I don't know if I'll get it. I made about 6 percent last week in an ETF that shorts the market. It was up 10 percent on Thursday but was going down in the days going up to Thursday. This is a bear market and the path of least resistance is down. However since I'm out of my position I'll say this market is the most oversold since 2002 but don't blame me if the bottom drops out sometime in mid to late July.

Disclaimer: I do not know the future and you shouldn't risk money in the stock market that you will need.

If we do have a rally now, I must be lucky. Either that or I do have good investment advice or I'm secretly getting supernatural help.

[edit on 30-6-2008 by orionthehunter]



posted on Jun, 30 2008 @ 03:04 PM
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seems to me their was a wide range of assets that returned nice rewards over the last decade during a time of relatively low inflation.

now their is a very narrow range of assets that returns nice rewards (commodity's) like in the 70's and consumer inflation is ramping up.

like the 70's without this consumer price inflationary oil boom their would be a serious threat of deflation psychology taking hold and that also spells bad news for a credit based society. like the 70's as the credit bubble creation is slowing, currency depreciation is what is used by the fed to try and keep higher nominal asset prices, to avoid a widespread deflation. THIS iS OFT confused as Money inflation! Oil should spike above 200 by next year and maybe 250 by the end of 2009. But the main difference to me between the two periods is that rising price inflation may not be able to be maintained as long because in the 70's we had WAGE inflation to help keep living standards from being crippled, today the lack of unions drastically weakens people's potential for wage increases (coupled with globilization) . This equals a lose lose in my mind and the reason the pain over the next several years will be worse than the 70's. Another key will be that the dollar remains used exclusively for oil purchases and that OPEC doesn't shift to a basket of currency's, should that happen the dollar could drop drastically and the above oil prices could double! (and then war planes fly)

I have had much disdain for the federal reserve and their policy's but the fact remains that raising rates and protecting the dollar would probably take the banking system down and require it to be fully nationalized (backed by gov't) and much unemployment would result (faster) as well as much cheaper oil and food. This is not sticking up for a awful system, just that our economy is hollowed out, indebted, and dependent on this fed.

I think by the time that the banks balance sheets have recoved (w/ smaller banks failing)we will be in a hell of a hole economically speaking (mid to late 2009) , and that in order to shift money back to financials and keep millions upon millons of angry citizens from revolting that intrest rates will then need to be raised. masive unemployment will continue if some kind of gov't sponsored jobs creation initiaitive is not undertaken. This could be simultanious with the creation of a NAU as well as veri-chip. I also think any shift to a trans continental currency (amero) will be independant of dollar strength. (meaning a dollar collapse is not necessary to shift to a euro-like currency, which people falsely assume)

I think all socio-economic system are inherently flawed and a gov't depandant on quasi private central banks probably take the cake but also a basic gold standard (due to a constraint in credit and thus financing for expansion) has it's short commings as well as fiat issued by govt only. As Winston Churchill once said Democracy is an awful way to run a country, but it's the best system we have.- perhaps this is the same type of thinking with money supply and the financial systems (although i am not insinuating a central bank is the best option, however all options are less than "perfect".) with this thinking in mind i beleive the lack of peace and prosperity is not so much due to a "intentionally evil" cohesive conspiracy so much as numerous sometimes overlapping patterns of greed, fraud, and the propencity for men in power to seek more power, or perhaps i am just splitting hairs/semantics, not that this perspective will ease the pain many shall face.

I do not see the end of the world/dark ages coming, just a bad recession, a lowering of standard of living, and then enough pain to get people to bite on the next problem reaction solution which probably ends with people chipped and a more fascist type of govt with less power for national govt's and more for world governing body's.


[edit on 30-6-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 30-6-2008 by cpdaman]



posted on Jul, 1 2008 @ 08:21 AM
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CP--

An excellent analysis on your part. I'm continually amazed at the brain trusts ATS seems to attract. The intelligence on these forums (shape-shifting lizard people videos aside) speaks volumes about the true analytical power with the tin-foil hat crowd.

Anyway, I want to respond to a couple of points:


Originally posted by cpdaman
Oil should spike above 200 by next year and maybe 250 by the end of 2009.

Is this assessment only taking into account the dollar value? I believe oil prices will moderate because of drastic global recessionary pressures, which should offset barrel prices some for Americans; assuming we can stabilize the dollar, price drops could be greater than $40/barrel.



But the main difference to me between the two periods is that rising price inflation may not be able to be maintained as long because in the 70's we had WAGE inflation to help keep living standards from being crippled, today the lack of unions drastically weakens people's potential for wage increases (coupled with globilization) . This equals a lose lose in my mind and the reason the pain over the next several years will be worse than the 70's.

Excellent point. Although I'd argue that unemployment in the 70's, 10-15% in some major cities, was due to over-leveraged demands from unions -- forced some companies to simply avoid hiring altogether. It also led to the proliferation of "middle management" as a way for companies to get the Urg without the union.



I think by the time that the banks balance sheets have recoved (w/ smaller banks failing)we will be in a hell of a hole economically speaking (mid to late 2009) , and that in order to shift money back to financials and keep millions upon millons of angry citizens from revolting that intrest rates will then need to be raised. masive unemployment will continue if some kind of gov't sponsored jobs creation initiaitive is not undertaken.


Unfortunately, America is over-leveraged this time around, and may not be able to create gov't-sponsored jobs (i.e. A New New Deal, for lack of a better analogy). This clearly places the solution to this problem on the backs of a hammered corporate America.
One method of recovery could be the continued outsourcing of government, a la the Haliburton plan. We could literally ship displaced workers to Iraq and Afghanistan to ease overtaxed troops in a variety of semi-dangerous civilian, well-paid roles, including a plan I heard was bantied about in the recesses of the Pentagon about creating civilian patrols and neighborhood watches in more secure Iraqi neighborhoods, allowing troops to canvass the more dangerous areas with more manpower.



This could be simultanious with the creation of a NAU as well as veri-chip. I also think any shift to a trans continental currency (amero) will be independant of dollar strength. (meaning a dollar collapse is not necessary to shift to a euro-like currency, which people falsely assume)


Excellent point. Yes, we more than likely will have a dual currency system for an extended period of time, like Europe.


I think all socio-economic system are inherently flawed and a gov't depandant on quasi private central banks probably take the cake but also a basic gold standard (due to a constraint in credit and thus financing for expansion) has it's short commings as well as fiat issued by govt only. As Winston Churchill once said Democracy is an awful way to run a country, but it's the best system we have.- perhaps this is the same type of thinking with money supply and the financial systems (although i am not insinuating a central bank is the best option, however all options are less than "perfect".)

Agree 100%. As much as I rant and rave against Bernanke and the Fed, what alternative do we really have? Although, I do believe there should be more Fed transparency laws passed, including demanding that the Fed report the M3 money supply, from Congress. As much as I am against over-regulation, I believe a clear lack of regulation in both the Fed and in the Hedge fund, private investment world (or at the very least, transparency) is what has drove us to the situation to begin with.



with this thinking in mind i beleive the lack of peace and prosperity is not so much due to a "intentionally evil" cohesive conspiracy so much as numerous sometimes overlapping patterns of greed, fraud, and the propencity for men in power to seek more power, or perhaps i am just splitting hairs/semantics, not that this perspective will ease the pain many shall face.

I continually fall back upon my Judeo Christian roots to this -- it's all about greed. That motive derives all other bads from it -- need for power, fraud, the will to conquer, etc.

I find it interesting that every generation seems to have one major disaster that defines it, and that disaster, when examined through historical lenses, tends to be symbolic as to what that society held as the most important thing. At the turn of the 19th Century, the Titanic's sinking was a generation-defining tragedy. What's more, the Titanic symbolized to a great extent, the death of the industrial age.

I could argue that the Challenger disaster (a biggie for my generation) represented the death of the Space Age and Kennedy's NASA vision.

And, as unpopular as this comment will be, the destruction of the World Trade Center, I believe when looked back, will mark the death of the Financial/Banking/Wall Street age of the world. I'm not saying they will disappear. After all, we still have factories, we still have NASA. I'm saying the role of importance of banking and financial institutions on society is wanning to make way for the next influence/commander. What that will be is up-in-the-air, although militaristic religion seemed to want to take the cake early on this century.

And like all deaths, the transition will be painful, and its ramifications will be at times frightening and permanent.



I do not see the end of the world/dark ages coming, just a bad recession, a lowering of standard of living, and then enough pain to get people to bite on the next problem reaction solution which probably ends with people chipped and a more fascist type of govt with less power for national govt's and more for world governing body's.


Maybe fascism is the replacement I was referring to above...



posted on Jul, 1 2008 @ 11:12 AM
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I sit in an interesting place. I have a viewpoint that, I am finding out, is broader than I previously though. From where I sit, seeing a total crash late july is not a maybe anymore. Its down right likely. Because of what my husband does, I see the activity and am lucky enough to hear viewpoints from all areas. From the big money men who are the backers to most financial transactions, all the way down the line to the worker bees. The big money men have stopped. Here in a couple of weeks when the final jobs are completed, thats it. They are not going any further. No more houses or buildings are going to go up. That is a major domino to have fall. We are talking about A LOT of people out of work, and more to follow. Think about how many people that will hurt. Not just construction workers, and roofers, but people who make the products, the truckers, and quickly to follow, all the people who make money off all them...the auto industry, grocers, beautitians, etc.

The circulation of money is about to come to a standstill. I dont know if it will be at the end of July, but it will be very soon. Most people are living paycheck to paycheck at it is. The first time that paycheck doesnt come it is going to hurt.

What is even worse, is that there isnt much to fall back on. WIC has been cut dramatically, from what I hear food stamps and other forms of govt. assistance is going to be cut down as well. We are going to have a whole lot of hungry people.



posted on Jul, 2 2008 @ 09:30 AM
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I was wondering if one of the "the end of the world is nigh" people could explain to me something I always wonder when I read these threads.

Everytime I see something like this I hear the same advice. Hoard food and water, buy guns, find somwhere you can isolate and protect yourself.

That's all very well and good but don't you think it's a bit selfish ?

I personally don't believe there is going to be a huge global crash resulting in our government sending us to concentration camps etc, but lets say there was. What are all the rest of us supposed to do while you sit in your heavily guarded fortress with all the food and guns ?

Are we supposed to starve to death so you can protect your miserable little lives ? Do you have plans to redistribute your food stocks out to the starving populace or do you all intend to sit in your bunkers eating tinned peaches and saying "I told you so" ?

I honestly don't understand. Have we got to a point where humans are so selfish they'll happily sit back and watch their fellow countrymen and women starve to death, killing each other over the scraps that are left while the tiny minority sit in their little fortresses shooting kids who dare to try and take some of their precious supplies ?

Sorry but if it's really going to get that bad I'd sooner put a bullet in my head than turn into that kind of selfish privalidged "Screw you buddy I'm all right" ~arsehole~



posted on Jul, 2 2008 @ 12:03 PM
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reply to post by Spuggy
 




That's all very well and good but don't you think it's a bit selfish ?


Well, yeah, it's selfish, but I think it's a benign selfishness. It's not directly hurting anybody to take care of oneself.

On the other hand, the sort of viewpoint you seem to champion - that people who work and prepare and spend their hard-earned money on supplies ought to just open their doors so the lazy, nearsighted looters can gorge themselves - that seems selfish to me.

It's not my responsibility to feed my neighbor, any more than its my neighbor's responsibility to feed me. If everyone just took care of their own household, there would be no need for charity.

But no, so many people would rather just live on welfare and handouts from people who aren't afraid of a little hard work.

Screw that - I'm not going to put the survival of my family in question just to save some worthless leech who couldn't be bothered to take the necessary steps to insure their own survival.

Those are the selfish ones - the looters. Not the folks who prepared, but the ones who didn't. Do you get my point?



What are all the rest of us supposed to do while you sit in your heavily guarded fortress with all the food and guns ?


Well, I know you're not going to like my answer, but if you can't be bothered to take an interest in your own survival, then yeah, you're supposed to die. That's the way it works.

If an animal just doesn't feel like hunting, it will starve. There's no nanny state in the wild to take care of animals who are too stupid or too lazy to take care of themselves.



Are we supposed to starve to death so you can protect your miserable little lives ?


And we're the selfish ones? If your sense of entitlement gets any bigger, you won't be able to fit out the door.


Your life is so much more valuable than mine, eh? You have a right to my food, and I'm selfish because I won't share with you? Get tossed!

Your miserable little life is your own damn responsibility, just as my miserable little life is mine.



I honestly don't understand. Have we got to a point where humans are so selfish they'll happily sit back and watch their fellow countrymen and women starve to death, killing each other over the scraps that are left while the tiny minority sit in their little fortresses shooting kids who dare to try and take some of their precious supplies ?


What do you mean 'have we gotten to a point' - we've been here since forever...

If I stockpile enough food for my family, and in a sudden surge of pity or charitable spirit I decide to give some of it away to the neighbors, we all die. If I stand my ground, my family lives. Seems simple enough to me.

Only the sickest people would take pleasure in watching their neighbors suffer, but just because it isn't enjoyable doesn't mean it isn't necessary. I don't enjoy the prospect of watching legions of people starve to death or (more likely) succumb to dehydration because they didn't have the presence of mind to plan for the worst, but to hell with what I enjoy; my responsibility is to my family.



posted on Jul, 2 2008 @ 01:47 PM
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reply to post by Spuggy
 


Go re-read everything Wyrdeone just said, because I was about to say the exact same thing.



posted on Jul, 2 2008 @ 08:59 PM
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Denmark is now (1/7-08) in technical recession.
as the first in the EU.
I'm pretty sure that alot of other EU countries will follow very soon.
Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank, warned that inflation could 'explode' soon.

I'm for sure going to store alot of food, and look for a more safe place to be, just in case.



posted on Jul, 2 2008 @ 10:08 PM
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technical recession and gov't indicators like GDP are a sham.

More country's are in a "recession" than reported.

That is not an opinion, or a conspiracy theory it is a FACT

Price inflation or CPI measured by the gov't has changed the way it's (since reagan administration and updated under clinton) weighed and calculated in a way to MINIMIZE the totals in order for the gov't payment obligations to minimized as well. Saves Gov't billions of dollars on payouts to american taxpayers and retirees.

Also encourages investment in america by falsifying GDP and giving a false confidence that our economy is and has been expanding. Wall street is a confidence game and manipulated statistics are literally a National security issue.

Other country's have changed the way they calculated CPI (consumer price inflation) , taking our lead since they save money on obligations, and tack on a few percentage point to GDP.

Without these "tricks" the u.s would by almost all technical definition be in a recession currently.

I would also note that it is my strong opinion that we are not seeing much of an inflation in money supply, in fact we maybe starting to contract and possibly entering A deflationary debt sprial. *however many are expecting a "New resolution trust* to be set up to help bailout (govt/taxpayers) buy toxic debt( they may need to hurry). Obviously consumer prices are increasing and this price inflation is increasing but in monetary (credit plus money total terms) we are not witnessing nearly the growth/inflation in credit/money that was going on in the first 6 years of the decade, because banks are hurting very bad and americans are watching their house and stock assets deflating along with their creditworthiness in general. Also a lot of debt on the books is worth a whole heck of alot less and has yet to be valued accurately by banks.

IMO by FAR the best times to get high returns in finance have passed, the name of the game is wealth preservation now. Sure their are some plays shorting sectors and index's, and i still see the potential for commodity's to nearly double from their current levels (but this is very risky IMO). Those bottom feeding will get burned for the third or fourth time if they think it is now safe to venture in the stock waters.


[edit on 2-7-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 3-7-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 3-7-2008 by cpdaman]



posted on Jul, 3 2008 @ 08:19 AM
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Bravo Wyrdeone! Bravo! Perfectly explained and executed. I love the part about no nanny state in the wild kingdom of animals. If they are too lazy to pull their weight then they are shed off by their pride/herd/clique like a dead snake skin. Welfare abusers should all be lined up and *cough*.....

Spuggy: take notes on that post extensively. Just about everything you wrote comes across as having been written by someone with a huge sense of entitlement. Like it or not, if the world goes tango uniform and you haven't planned then you die. Game over. If you were a friend or family I would take you in and help you out and expect you to pull your weight as we survived together. If I were just a neighbor then I would tell you to get bent and shoot your a$$ if you came knocking on my door trying to get what I had and expecting me to do the 'neighborly' thing. Poor planners, oblivious citizens and corrupt leaders are why we are in the mess we are in now.

cpdaman: I love your posts man. I would love to sit down with you and shoot the breeze about this stuff. Every time one of these threads comes up you seem to be the only one making sense. Traderonwallstreet is on my ignore list. That guy is clueless and imo is not nor was he ever a trader on wall street.



posted on Jul, 3 2008 @ 10:49 AM
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reply to post by Escrotumus
 


Aw don't like my posts?




Yes, CP I agree many more European countries are in a recession then reported.. if you look past "federal" numbers.. smaller countries, be it in Europe or not, can fall into depression and no one would know or care..

Iceland for instance, is in a steep recession. Current inflation, even by federally reported standards, is 11.8%. Target inflation is a mere 2.5% .. think something went wrong..

Several other European countries will officially be in a recession by the end of the summer..

The reason being the Tourism market is collapsing, as inflation rises faster and faster, it makes trading for Euro's a heartbreaking pain .. Not many American's will be traveling abroad to see Europe when it takes more then a Dollar and a half for one Euro which won't buy you much with inflation over there...






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