An excellent analysis on your part. I'm continually amazed at the brain trusts ATS seems to attract. The intelligence on these forums
(shape-shifting lizard people videos aside) speaks volumes about the true analytical power with the tin-foil hat crowd.
Anyway, I want to respond to a couple of points:
Originally posted by cpdaman
Oil should spike above 200 by next year and maybe 250 by the end of 2009.
Is this assessment only taking into account the dollar value? I believe oil prices will moderate because of drastic global recessionary pressures,
which should offset barrel prices some for Americans; assuming we can stabilize the dollar, price drops could be greater than $40/barrel.
But the main difference to me between the two periods is that rising price inflation may not be able to be maintained as long because in the 70's we
had WAGE inflation to help keep living standards from being crippled, today the lack of unions drastically weakens people's potential for wage
increases (coupled with globilization) . This equals a lose lose in my mind and the reason the pain over the next several years will be worse than the
Excellent point. Although I'd argue that unemployment in the 70's, 10-15% in some major cities, was due to over-leveraged demands from unions --
forced some companies to simply avoid hiring altogether. It also led to the proliferation of "middle management" as a way for companies to get the
Urg without the union.
I think by the time that the banks balance sheets have recoved (w/ smaller banks failing)we will be in a hell of a hole economically speaking (mid to
late 2009) , and that in order to shift money back to financials and keep millions upon millons of angry citizens from revolting that intrest rates
will then need to be raised. masive unemployment will continue if some kind of gov't sponsored jobs creation initiaitive is not undertaken.
Unfortunately, America is over-leveraged this time around, and may not be able to create gov't-sponsored jobs (i.e. A New New Deal, for lack of a
better analogy). This clearly places the solution to this problem on the backs of a hammered corporate America.
One method of recovery could be the continued outsourcing of government, a la the Haliburton plan. We could literally ship displaced workers to Iraq
and Afghanistan to ease overtaxed troops in a variety of semi-dangerous civilian, well-paid roles, including a plan I heard was bantied about in the
recesses of the Pentagon about creating civilian patrols and neighborhood watches in more secure Iraqi neighborhoods, allowing troops to canvass the
more dangerous areas with more manpower.
This could be simultanious with the creation of a NAU as well as veri-chip. I also think any shift to a trans continental currency (amero) will be
independant of dollar strength. (meaning a dollar collapse is not necessary to shift to a euro-like currency, which people falsely assume)
Excellent point. Yes, we more than likely will have a dual currency system for an extended period of time, like Europe.
I think all socio-economic system are inherently flawed and a gov't depandant on quasi private central banks probably take the cake but also a basic
gold standard (due to a constraint in credit and thus financing for expansion) has it's short commings as well as fiat issued by govt only. As
Winston Churchill once said Democracy is an awful way to run a country, but it's the best system we have.- perhaps this is the same type of thinking
with money supply and the financial systems (although i am not insinuating a central bank is the best option, however all options are less than
Agree 100%. As much as I rant and rave against Bernanke and the Fed, what alternative do we really have? Although, I do believe there should be more
Fed transparency laws passed, including demanding that the Fed report the M3 money supply, from Congress. As much as I am against over-regulation, I
believe a clear lack of regulation in both the Fed and in the Hedge fund, private investment world (or at the very least, transparency) is what has
drove us to the situation to begin with.
with this thinking in mind i beleive the lack of peace and prosperity is not so much due to a "intentionally evil" cohesive conspiracy so much as
numerous sometimes overlapping patterns of greed, fraud, and the propencity for men in power to seek more power, or perhaps i am just splitting
hairs/semantics, not that this perspective will ease the pain many shall face.
I continually fall back upon my Judeo Christian roots to this -- it's all about greed. That motive derives all other bads from it -- need for power,
fraud, the will to conquer, etc.
I find it interesting that every generation seems to have one major disaster that defines it, and that disaster, when examined through historical
lenses, tends to be symbolic as to what that society held as the most important thing. At the turn of the 19th Century, the Titanic's sinking was a
generation-defining tragedy. What's more, the Titanic symbolized to a great extent, the death of the industrial age.
I could argue that the Challenger disaster (a biggie for my generation) represented the death of the Space Age and Kennedy's NASA vision.
And, as unpopular as this comment will be, the destruction of the World Trade Center, I believe when looked back, will mark the death of the
Financial/Banking/Wall Street age of the world. I'm not saying they will disappear. After all, we still have factories, we still have NASA. I'm
saying the role of importance of banking and financial institutions on society is wanning to make way for the next influence/commander. What that
will be is up-in-the-air, although militaristic religion seemed to want to take the cake early on this century.
And like all deaths, the transition will be painful, and its ramifications will be at times frightening and permanent.
I do not see the end of the world/dark ages coming, just a bad recession, a lowering of standard of living, and then enough pain to get people to bite
on the next problem reaction solution which probably ends with people chipped and a more fascist type of govt with less power for national govt's and
more for world governing body's.
Maybe fascism is the replacement I was referring to above...