EU, Ireland and the Lisbon Treaty, page 1
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ATS Members have flagged this thread 6 times
Topic started on 13-6-2008 @ 10:45 AM by budski
I've started this so as not to derail the threads about Ireland voting no in yesterdays referendum.

Whilst I am pleased that this has perhaps given the arrogant european governments who wouldn't allow a treaty referendum a kick in the pants, it must also be said that the NO vote in Ireland was the result of scare tactics, by fringe groups.

In particular, I'm concerned about the churches role in the vote, and the scare tactics about abortion, prostitution etc

One of the reasons why there is so much concern about the treaty is that the language seems deliberately vague and beurocratic, and seems intentionally designed to hide the meaning of the text.
Treaty Text

I'm not completely dumb, but I find the intent of the language quite hard to follow.

If there is nothing to hide, why is it couched in these terms?

OK, that's my first point.

My second point is to do with the EU as a whole and where they go from here?

Are we to see an attempt to circumvent the Irish vote, as has already been hinted at in a news conference by the Commision President?

Just so we're cler here, the Dutch and French killed the EU constitution, the Lisbon Treaty was very much plan B, with no further referendums allowed in the other 26 member states apart from Ireland - this is despite the FACT that Brown promised a referendum and then denied one to UK voters by coming up with the ridiculous argument that the 2 treaties were completely different.

The EU commission now want to meet with Irish representatives next week to "see what can be done" which I take to mean "is there any way we can ignore this, and carry on with the treaty"

One of the methods which has been rumoured is expulsion from the EU for the Irish - which is pretty much unthinkable.

So, where does the EU go from here?

Is there to be another treaty?

Will the Irish vote be ignored?

The commission president has repeatedly stated that 18 countries have ratified the treaty, and the remaining 8 will ratify the treaty - leaving one "rogue" member.

This also brings up other questions, such as the french reaction to this.

When the French people are displeased with their government, they are not known for their delicate sensibilities in making their feelings known.
Could this mean civil unrest? Not just in France but perhaps other countries as well.


It seems as though the NO vote has raised many questions.

What will happen remains to be seen.

The chinese proverb (actually an insult) "May you live in interesting times" springs to mind - it seems we are destined to do just that.

All thoughts, as usual are welcome.


[edit on 13/6/2008 by budski]


reply posted on 13-6-2008 @ 12:34 PM by Ste2652
The more the EU tries to force itself onto the nations of Europe, the more the people will resent it. It really is that simple.

No one wants to do things when they're forced to do it. Whilst the EU itself has some legitimacy in the UK (since it was approved by a democratic referendum), the body in its present form has not been approved. It had changed significantly since the UK entered the (then) European Community in 1973, and no government (Labour or Conservative) has put any major Treaty to a referendum since then.

I think that, fundamentally, the EU can be a good thing. In its present form, however, it is not. Presently it is too opaque, too statist, too bureaucratic and it takes too many powers away from national governments. Europe is a highly complex and ancient bastion of modern civilisation. To try to force European peoples (I use the plural deliberately) to merge into one is doomed to fail from the start and risks unleashing dangerous nationalist movements in the long term.

So where do we go from here?

Well, legally the Lisbon Treaty cannot enter force because the Republic of Ireland has rejected it. All 27 member states were required to have ratified it for it to enter force. There may be changes to the Treaty to make it palatable for the Irish, but this would mean that the Treaty itself has changed and would require re-ratification (in theory at least... I suspect steps may be taken to skip this step). Any re-ratification would increase pressure for referendums across the nations of Europe intensely.


reply posted on 13-6-2008 @ 12:45 PM by pieman
i'm glad this thread was re-opened.
budski, i don't think the scare tactics regarding abortion, prostitution and euthanasia held much sway in the end, it felt to me the reasons for the no vote centred much more around plans for a european army, tax homogenisation and the loss of the every member states constitution. these were actually much more realistic threads running through the treaty, and it became clear in the last few weeks that these were real possibilities.

there is also a strong democratic belief in ireland, and the fact that this was pushed through europe a second time undemocratically when it had been rejected so soundly by france and holland the first time did bother more people than is being publicised by the MS media. the feeling coming from the uk is that the people didn't want it there either. i believe there were campaigns in other countries for referenda, which were all rejected by governments. this naturally enough leads to a feeling that this treaty is being pushed through for politicians and not for the people of europe, and who the hell trusts politicians.

the worrying thing is, brussels are calling for the process to push on regardless, it seems likely that they will attempt it again as a second vote changed the irish decision on the first constitutional attempt. if the anti-constitutional voices in the rest of europe aren't strong between now and the end of the year, and there are loud voices from the pro side, i can see ireland voting yes if it comes to another vote. alternatively, ireland will just implement anything that doesn't require a referendum and everybody else will implement the full thing and it will pass that way. i don't think this is over by a long shot.


reply posted on 13-6-2008 @ 01:29 PM by budski
reply to post by Ste2652


Yes they would need all 27 states approval - but let's not forget that the Irish government were in favour of the treaty, so if it could be done at government level with no need for a referendum, that would be a way around the law.

Just change it without asking the people


reply posted on 13-6-2008 @ 02:09 PM by Ste2652
reply to post by budski


True, but wouldn't it warrant a referendum in Ireland at least (owing to their constitution)? Besides, some governments like to use the 'everyone has to approve' idea as a way of getting what they want so they might object even if it isn't put to a referendum.

Originally posted by pieman
ste2652, realistically, i think the brits and the irish and the french and the germans and everybody else see themselves as national first and european second, i don't think it's isolated to us lot on the fringes.


I agree with you; I just thought it was interesting that a non-European saw the UK as separate.


reply posted on 13-6-2008 @ 02:43 PM by budski
reply to post by Ste2652


An Irish referendum wouldn't be necessary as they would only be changing EU law, not Irish law - which was the reason they had one on the Lisbon treaty, because it made fundamental changes to Irish law.

That's if I'm not mistaken, and I might very well be.

Still, if I'm right, this may be one possible way around the decision.

pieman
Yes, I got that impression as well.
You wouldn't think to listen to them that the standard of primary and secondary education in Ireland is far higher than that in the UK, and for the most part higher education as well.

But the UK has always tried to look down their nose at the Irish - I remember my Dad telling me about when he first came to England, and boarding houses had signs in the windows saying "No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish"

It's not so bad these days, but there is still an element of superiority towards the Irish.

They seem to think of all Irish people as uneducated bog paddies - and it just ain't true.
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