Alien Explanation

I believe an American Philosopher, coined what is referred to as Inference to the Best Explanation. As is clear from the name, the way to answer questions, be it sceintific or philosophical, is by choosing the most likely explanation among the set at hand. From this, Ochams's Razor comes to the front, stating that the simplest explanation is the most likely and thus the one to choose. Well, things are not always that simple, granted, but it is a good starting point.

Related to UFO's, explaining such things as lights in the sky, or small ships that seem to move quickly and then disappear, etc. as things caused by aliens fails to meet James' technique. Now, having done some research on this topic, I am unfortunately still sitting on the face regarding whether it is likely that Aliens exist or not. Here's why:

Reasons to Believe that Aliens do not exist:

1. Well, simply, there are other formidable explanations at hand regarding both famous and less famous UFO/Alien sightings. A quick example will illustrate the point: Roswell, 1947. The American Air Force encouters a "disc", as stated in the Ramey memo which details information about the said event, in New Mexico. The US Government said that it was a crashed ballon from Operation Mogul, a Top Secret op' testing survellience equipment. Others said it was a UFO that resulted in the seizure of a UFO and its crew. To my knowledge, there is little evidence to suggest anything of the sort. In fact, a better explanation is that it was a crashed device from the Mogul op'. There is more evidence to suggest the latter than to suggest that it was Aliens.

Let's take a quick look at some of the evidence at the site that led people to speculate about UFO's. For instance, the purple shapes that appeared on some of the crashed material. It was later said that it was toy tape used to hold peices of the device together. Why not accept that? Accept it we should. One main reason is that, rather than it coming from an alien ship, it came from the Americans. Why would the American Government want to put clear, Enlgish markings on such a device: what if it crashed over the Soviet Union? Surely the Americans would not want them to find out the probe was from them. So the markings leave the Soviets guessing, not being able to conclusively pin the probe on the Americans at that time. Remember, this was an experiment, so they were expecting these things to crash.

What's clear is that, in the Roswell incident, there are other, more likely explanations at hand in comparison to Alien explanations.

2. Why are Aliens, who are supposed to be so advanced, crashing into Earth? You think with their technology that such events were rarely, if ever, happen. Us Humans even have sophisticated, man-less probes that we send into space, why do the Aliens risk coming to Earth when they clearly are not interested in being "made"? If there were an Alien probe, one can imagine how sophisticated and long range it would be.

3. How do Aliens get their small ships into our Atmosphere without detection? Granted, their technology maybe so great they have found a way around our Satellites, but the problem still exists for them.

4. There are too many flaws in Alien sightings, which leads back to 1.

One interesting thing about UFO specualtion is that, perhaps, your Government in the US wants to create a smokescreen: while your thinking UFO's, you are not thinking about the wrong doings of your Military. It is the ultimate, long-term smoke screen.

Reasons to believe in Aliens:

1. Some US Government officials have spoken out about Aliens. For example, and I will not name his name, A US Senator wrote a letter when Hanger 18 was buzzing away about the fact that he was denied access to the building. He said in his letter that several intelligent people have told him we are "not alone." What about Bush Senior? I have heard him reply to a question about Aliens, saying "You don't know the half of it."

Well, simply, there are other formidable explanations at hand regarding both famous and less famous UFO/Alien sightings. A quick example will illustrate the point: Roswell, 1947. The American Air Force encouters a "disc", as stated in the Ramey memo which details information about the said event, in New Mexico. The US Government said that it was a crashed ballon from Operation Mogul, a Top Secret op' testing survellience equipment. Others said it was a UFO that resulted in the seizure of a UFO and its crew. To my knowledge, there is little evidence to suggest anything of the sort. In fact, a better explanation is that it was a crashed device from the Mogul op'. There is more evidence to suggest the latter than to suggest that it was Aliens.

Incorrect, as you can see here....

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Examine the evidence for yourself. I first went into the Roswell case expecting the evidence to support Mogul, but alas, it doesn't. The time was wrong, and Mogul used off the shelf materials easily recognized by a child, let alone that would be mistaken by a top intelligence officer.

Let's take a quick look at some of the evidence at the site that led people to speculate about UFO's. For instance, the purple shapes that appeared on some of the crashed material. It was later said that it was toy tape used to hold peices of the device together. Why not accept that? Accept it we should. One main reason is that, rather than it coming from an alien ship, it came from the Americans. Why would the American Government want to put clear, Enlgish markings on such a device: what if it crashed over the Soviet Union? Surely the Americans would not want them to find out the probe was from them. So the markings leave the Soviets guessing, not being able to conclusively pin the probe on the Americans at that time. Remember, this was an experiment, so they were expecting these things to crash.

What's clear is that, in the Roswell incident, there are other, more likely explanations at hand in comparison to Alien explanations.

There's nothing clear about it. To date, skeptics have failed to produce this tape, so it remains in the same category as other testimony, i.e. as a witness testimony. If used in a government construction, there should be a purchase record of it somewhere. Yet no, skeptics can still not furnish this mysterious tape. In contrast, we have at least two expert witnesses (one of which is a General) and other witnesses who testify in reference to the heiroglyphs on the I-beams. In order to believe the Mogul explanation, you'd have to accept that numerous military personnel would fail to identify balsa wood and foil for what it is. In addition, you'd need to accept that they felt the material important enough to crate up and ship to top air materiel sites in the nation (and these are well documented shipments). Again, Mogul used OFF THE SHELF materials, so there was nothing extraordinary or otherworldly about them, to cause them to be mistaken for strange debris. Only the MISSION of Mogul was classified. The materials that weren't recovered in some other Mogul losses were simply left in the desert. Nothing special about them. Yet THIS recovery resulted in military cordons, top secret flights to Ft. Worth and Wright Field, brief incarceration for the rancher, etc.? C'mon? Seriously?

Roswell is a poor example to illustrate Occam's Razor. A better one would be the Mantell Incident, where Charles Mantell died while chasing a Skyhook balloon. At least that incident can be shown, with evidence, to be a misidentification.

Why are Aliens, who are supposed to be so advanced, crashing into Earth? You think with their technology that such events were rarely, if ever, happen. Us Humans even have sophisticated, man-less probes that we send into space, why do the Aliens risk coming to Earth when they clearly are not interested in being "made"? If there were an Alien probe, one can imagine how sophisticated and long range it would be.

Being an alien doesn't exempt one from Murphy's law. One could say the same thing about us. How could we land numerous missions on the moon, but miss a zero and have a billion dollar satellite go poof? Stuff happens.

How do Aliens get their small ships into our Atmosphere without detection? Granted, their technology maybe so great they have found a way around our Satellites, but the problem still exists for them.

We can defeat our own radar, why shouldn't an advanced race be capable of the same? A better question would be how do they traverse such vast distances within a lifetime. Stealth is minor compared to the tech required to do THAT!

There are too many flaws in Alien sightings, which leads back to 1

That'd be like saying there are too many flaws in experimental physics, so such physics must not exist. Silly, huh?

Here's the thing. Lets say you have 10,000 UFO cases and 9999 of them are phony. If even ONE is a genuine otherworldly craft...then the phenomenon is real. Space is a big, big place. We've already seen evidence for water (and thus likely life of some kind) in numerous places in our solar system (poles of the Moon, Mars, Europa, Enceladus, etc.). To assume life doesn't exist elsewhere out there, is ludicrous and arrogant. Likewise, to assume we're the only sentient life, being in a middle-aged part of our own galaxy...is equally arrogant.

As for other reasons to believe in Alien life...it's simple...the government has treated it as a realistic threat for decades...that perceived threat has to based on more than just fuzzy pictures or rattled witnesses. Evidence such as the missing gun camera footage from Blue Book cases, evidence gathered in Grudge, Sign, etc., and of course the chances of actual craft recovery... Or, cases where people exhibit knowledge not previously known (such as Betty Hill's starmap). THESE are the reasons to believe in at least the POSSIBILITY of intelligent alien life and visitation.



[edit on 13-6-2008 by Gazrok]

Under the same theory, let's add 1 reason why it is likely aliens exist.

1. Out of a universe which we know to be larger than our technology can show us, with planets that are known to be located in similar positions to their similar suns as Earth, it is LIKELY that at LEAST one would harbor life.

As a side note:

2. With our knowledge of how different life is on our own planet, it is LIKELY that life could be sustainable under much different conditions than our own.

You bring up valid points, but to me #1 alone outweighs all of them.