History made tonight!!!!Obama secures Democratic Presidential nomination!!!

History has been made tonight ladies and gentlemen!!

Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to become the first African-American Presidential nominee!!!

Sen. Barack Obama achieved the 2,118 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination for president Tuesday, according to the ABC News scorecard, before polls closed in the final primary contests in South Dakota and Montana. The presumptive Democratic nominee is expected to win an additional number of delegates from today's contests and further superdelegate endorsements Tuesday.

Making history by becoming the nation's first African-American presidential nominee, Obama, D-Ill., emerges victorious from one of the longest and most closely fought Democratic nomination fights in recent history.

"Tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another – a journey that will bring a new and better day to America. Because of you, tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States," Obama told cheering supporters at an arena in St. Paul, Minnesota.

I personally was for Hillary Clinton,and still hope she is his Vice-President.But the fact remains that tonight history has been made,as I was watching the network news break through regular programming I couldn't help but think "I am personally experiencing major history!"

ABCNEWS.COM

So what do you all think!!??


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[edit on 6-6-2008 by Jbird]

I'm just happy it's over. I have never understood how the American people can take SO LONG to go through the political process. And to think November is still months away...

I've still got a feeling (a bad one) that McCain is going to be the next president, though. I'm not really sure why I think he will win, except that since he's a Bush clone, and Bush (somehow) won two terms in office, that people will want more of the same. (even though I think they are crazy for wanting that)

I think John Titors right on, if Barack takes the seat, then Hillary becomes Vice, something is going to happen to him, and she will become president. It is one possibility in our World Line according to J.T.

Another Pope too? The last and final Pope, the Black Pope?

We are at such a precipice in our World, what next?

Antar,yea I've heard the 'Titor'theories,I dunno',but I agree we are at a huge point in our history now.

I think Hillary would be a great choice for VP and secure Obama the win.


BTW:I've added you as a friend!

It's important to note that, while the final primary gave Obama enough pledged (ie "estimated") delegates to secure the nomination, Hillary has not actually backed out of the running yet, and those delegate counts can very easily change by the time of the DNC. It is anticipated more or less across the board that she still step down in the next few days, but she is both tenacious and skilled at dirty politics, so nothing is quite certain at this point. It would not surprise me if she took this all the way to the DNC in hopes of gaining more super delegates, and final state delegates.

One of the key things to remember is that in the Democratic party, delegates are split in each state, and pledged delegates are really just an "estimate" of that state's final representation. A state has several delegate conventions. The night of the Primary for a state establishes the percentage, per precinct, of Obama vs. Clinton. Then a number of precinct delegates is allocated for the precinct as a whole, then split according to that percentage.

Those Precinct Delegates then meet at a county caucus a few weeks later. If the precinct is large enough, it might send one or two delegates of its own to state. If not, then several precincts will be joined until there's enough to represent one delegate. Here is where you see the percentages begin to change. You might have 4 precincts joined together, 3 of which voted 95% Obama, and 1 of which voted 55% Clinton, and of these, more delegates from the "Clinton" precinct show up to the county caucus to make a majority, who then decide to send a rep from the Clinton camp to state because they outvote the number of Obama delegates that showed up. This is one way that pledged delegates from a primary get "flipped".

Then, for each delegate sent to state, there is an alternate. ONE VOTE determines both the delegate and the alternate. Typically, to make it simple, each camp per precinct or grouping will unite behind one delegate, and then the vote will be something like "everyone for Candidate A raise your hands" followed by "everyone for Candidate B raise your hands". If Candidate B wins, then Candidate A is the alternate. Unless one camp outnumbers the other by MORE than a 2/1 margin, then the alternate will support a different candidate than the delegate. If anything happens to that delegate and they can't make it, for any reason, to the state caucus, then the alternate will attend and vote in their place. This is another way that pledged delegates get flipped.

Finally, yet more weeks later the same thing pretty much happens at State, only now you have reached a level where the phone calls started the night the County Caucus ended, and wheeling and dealing has happened among the regulars to the point where the state delegates are practically already chosen for you by the time you attend state, and the only X factor, which is a pretty big one, is how many alternate/delegate flips there has been, and if anyone has changed their mind (which is technically legal). This is another way the votes get flipped.

So when you see those exit polls that release a State Primary delegate count of, say 35 for Obama and 30 for Clinton, what you are actually seeing is an estimate based purely on theory and speculation that everyone will always show up if they are a delegate, vote strictly along candidate lines, that no one will get sick, and that any vote flips will cancel each other out.

The reality is that by the time State Delegates are sent to the Democratic National Convention, the state with 35/30 might end up being more like 32/33.

Thus, I would not be surprised in the least if Hillary stayed in the race. She would be well aware of these flips, and now that the primary is over, she might start working very hard behind the scenes to ensure those flips happen in her favor.



[edit on 6/4/2008 by thelibra]

Originally posted by DragonsDemesne
I'm just happy it's over. I have never understood how the American people can take SO LONG to go through the political process. And to think November is still months away...

I've still got a feeling (a bad one) that McCain is going to be the next president, though. I'm not really sure why I think he will win, except that since he's a Bush clone, and Bush (somehow) won two terms in office, that people will want more of the same. (even though I think they are crazy for wanting that)

My sentiments exactly. If I had posted a reply it would resemble yours in every way.
I have a horrible feeing we're in for (at least) 4 years of McBush *sigh*

I still have a morbid feeling that BUSH will be our next president right till the end.
Otherwise=DICTATOR

He's not going anywhere.