reply to post by gulfstreamsalt
I swore I wouldn't post again on ATS today, but I am on a new computer/new server so it should be fine..... here goes my reply for the second time
today (hopefully this one won't be deleted!)
I made a thread a while back on the US Misery Report, which was an "actual" calculation of inflation + unemployment.. or in other words, the things
that make consumers miserable! The author was from this site, Shadow Stats, however, the Misery report it's self did not originate from that site,
but rather, has been in use for quite a while. It essentially uses the "old" way of caluculating inflation and unemployment. For example, the US
government does not count people who are unemployed, not recieving benefits and are still looking for jobs. OK. That makes sense, because that is
every single unemployed middle class American. 4.9 million at the Gov's last "count". Inflation was at 3.5% according to the Gov, even though gas
alone has gone up 30% in two months, eggs up 50% and you can't even buy rice in bulk anymore. But gas, food, and energy is not included in the
Gov's inflation calculation.
That makes sense.
The things I live off of, is gas, for me car, beer and eggs for the morning after my beer. I don't kid when I say most of
my money goes to that! Oh and my energy bill. Which has also gone up 20% this year so far.
The Gov doesn't count ANY of that into Inflation.
So, sorry college kids my age, but while you plow through Monster.com looking for
a job paying more then poverty, and your driving to get beer to get drunk so you can wash those blues away and hopefully improve your concentration
for test taking (insert wink wink) and eating romen noodles (which price has gone up over a dollar.. omg, I lived off that crap for a year!) The Gov
will count absolutely NONE of that towards inflation or unemployment.
To the Government, you don't even exist! Unworthy to be calculated, how sad. Except when they want to take 20% of your paycheck to pay for all that
pathetic trash out there sucking up Gov handed out benefits while you struggle to survive in none-existence.
But I am also a fair man, I don't believe in over sensualization of a story... err.. just ignore everything above.. anyways, lets look at this way
all of you "zomg America is ruining the world!" folks.
I am 21 years of age. Right now I defy the odds and I do quite well for my self. However... a normal business cycle says that once in a 20 year
period there must be an economic disruption. That is to say, a major disruption. And that is just a minimum .. we have never in our history (no
country) gone 20 years of pure economic boom.
This means in my life, at 21, though I didn't know it, nor did I give a damn, I have experienced TWO recessions in my short stay on Planet Earth.
The biggest of which was in the mid to late 80's. Like I said, it didn't bother me, but from what I hear it wasn't exactly a rose garden. In 2001
I saw the towers get hit while in 9th grade.. I believe it was a English class.. I saw a recession instantaneously. Didn't bother me..
If the last recession was in 2001 .. and the article says OMG economic problems in 2010 or 2018 ... I have to say, what a weak arse prediction! There
HAS to be some kind of economic disruption in the time period.
In the course of my life, assuming I will live to the ripe ol' age of 150 (they keep saying we will live longer right?) or more realistically 83
years of age.. I will experience..
A 100% chance of an economic recession. But alas, I have lived through two! .. and I will live through at least one every 20 years for the rest of my
life. Perhaps every 10, who knows. only the globalist I suppose.
I will have an 80% chance of experience a large scale Depression. Typically in a business cycle every 100 years of business a capitalist society will
experience one major depression. The last one was in 1929 .. which means 2039 and on ward we are in over due range for an economic depression. I
will only be in my 50's, so I will write a post-it to my self to ensure nest egg is not confined to bank accounts....
In my life time I will have a 60% chance of experiencing a civil war and or revolution. Typically every 200 years or less, a country experiences
economic and civil upheaval. Sadly, this puts it right smack on target for the same time frame of the next expected economic depression! .. economic
times tend to make rational people act in otherwise irrational ways!
In my life time I will have a 80% chance of seeing a massive, world wide war of amazing destruction. Every 10 years the world super powers of the
world must engage in at least TWO conflicts of some kind, else economic upheaval is in store. The ONLY decade in which the US Army did not engage in
any major theater was in the 1980's, and the result ironically.... a decade of economic volatility. Granted, we spent the USSR into self
destruction, the war of spies and proxies never really "took off" in the 80's in the form of major conflicts..
The chances of seeing US operations in a theater of war is 100%.
Economic depressions, recessions, and economic stagnation are as sure as death and taxes.
To those who say America is the root of all evil.
No, man is the root of all evil, and evil actions are the heart of all evil .. ah, it's nothing but a redundant circle of vile evilness.. America
it's self did not give rise to Capitalism. And America it's self did not create the corporations that operate in a world of Anarchy not leveled by
any one Country..
Corporations are entities unto themselves, the government can restrict them, sometimes, tax them.. sometimes.. and dismantle them if desperately
needed. The problem with Capitalism is that EVERY country who welcomes this Trojan Horse into their lands, will soon be controlled by them.
A Country with no corporations is one thing.. it operates in it's own way. They may not have the best standards of living, but historically they are
happier populations (go figure) ... however, once corporations embed themselves into the fabric of society and government, to remove it one must
destroy themselves. Once the horse is let into the Country, and everyone gets drunk with financial stupidity, the corporation will let loose it's
corruption and the entire Country will fall in a short while. All while thinking they had a victory because of brief prosperity.. All democracies
will end in Tyranny, it is the natural order of Humanity, corporations will be an enabler.
Globalist are just that.. GLOBAList.. they have no allegiance.. if the world's borders fall down they would be all the happier. Countries impede on
their way of operation, without restrictions wealth can be generated and consolidated within the oligarchy of the capitalist world..
And finally, the American government it's self is not inheritantly corrupt, instead, Humanity by nature is corrupt, and every Democracy is corrupt in
it's own way. The only way to prevent corruption, is to ensure a system where absolute corruption already reigns!
Yes. By 2018 we will experience a recession. And I would hazard a very strong guess that by 2018 we will have experienced a recession, another
bubble, and another recession. Hell by 2018 we could be coming out of, or going into our second or third recession.
The likelihood of a depression is possible, it's not probable, but possible. Would I bet on it.. and start storing caned beans and beer (that's all
I would put in my bunker.. beans and beer baby, God have mercy on whos ever in there with me..) and buying up every small arms my trigger happy
fingers can grasp .. No.
Because a Recession .. or even a Depression does not mean armed conflict. It means economic depression. Sure, society is more receptacle to drastic
change during these times, but it doesn't happen that often at all.
My advice to everyone is enjoy the beer while the Hopps prices are still relatively low (they predict a 50% price increase by 2009) and just live life
to the best of your ability while you can. Packing away cans and jars in a secret hidey-hole is no way to live, imo.