By the Law of Averages, there are 1 billion species of Aliens

Ok, correct me If I am wrong, but I have heard that the Universe 'conservatively' contains 1 billion galaxies... each containing one billion stars.

So, If our Galaxy contains only one species of intelligent life, it is possible that the other billion Galaxies all contain one species of intelligent life.

Now, say that we happen to find life on mars. By Law of Averages, wouldn't that translate to our Galaxy containing 2 species of 'planetary life', intelligent or not.. and the universe containing 2 billion species of planetary life?

If you think about it broadly like that, and how little we know about the Universe, how can it be crazy to think other lifeforms exist outside of Earth?

reply to post by hikix


Cool analysis. You're right on point 1, but way underestimate point 2.

If Mars has life, then that means our little solar system has two independent forms of life. That puts the de facto probable number of life forms at 2 x 1 billion stars x 1 billion galaxies = 2 x 1,000,000,000 x 1,000,000,000 = 2,000,000,000,000,000,000 life forms in the universe.

That's truly a mind-boggling number. I wonder if there's even that many bacteria living on earth? Any guesses?

reply to post by jamie83



Nice, the way that you put it absolutely makes the possibilities of life outside this earth seem unfathomable... its amazing how little we know about the universe!


[edit on 5/29/2008 by hikix]

I believe there is other life somewhere out there and understand what you are saying but without knowing how life began its hard to say life does / has / will exist elsewhere without direct evidence.

Oh and the law of averages is as Wikipedia article says:

The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event shall "even out" within a small sample.

As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle. While there is a real theorem that a random variable will reflect its underlying probability over a very large sample, the law of averages typically assumes that unnatural short-term "balance" must occur.

[edit on 29-5-2008 by CuriosityStrikes]