Conservatives on course to win Crewe by-election

The Conservative Party is hoping for its first by-election gain since 1982, after polls closed in the constituency of Crewe and Nantwich.

Counting is under way, with a result expected early on Friday.

There are 10 candidates but it is widely seen as a two-way fight as the Tories seek to overturn Gwyneth Dunwoody's 7,000 Labour majority.

BBC political editor Nick Robinson said Labour officials had already been "conceding a defeat".

BBC News

It seems very likely that the Conservatives will win the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. Reports also suggest they could win big (5,000+ majority).

So what does this mean for both parties and their leaders? It's almost certain to reinforce David Cameron's position, but what does it mean for Gordon Brown?

I can't see Brown being kicked out just yet... he'll still be in Number Ten at least until Parliament rises for the summer recess (and probably the Labour Conference in the autumn). But it could be one of these issues that gradually undermine him.

I agree, it looks like whatever happens it'll be a bad night for Labour.

But let's just have a little perspective & a look at where we are and where we are coming from.

The Conservative Party is hoping for its first by-election gain since 1982

BTW the BBC (on their 'News 24' channel) have been reporting that the last tory by-election victory whilst they were in opposition was 1978.
An incredible 30yr stretch.

If they were incapable of breaking that 'record' then for all their supposed 'appeal' & 'modernisation' Cameron & Co. might as well pack up and go home.

A single swallow does not a summer make: just as a single favourable by-election result (in a huge and long-running swathe of bad by-election results) does not a shoe-in for the next general election make.

It'll be a better night for the tory party and it's coming in a better year for them too.

......but, and let's be honest, from where they were the only way possible was up.

There's a long way until the next general election and when most people start to see the effects of the recent tax cut -
which judging by the tone of the outrageous press this story has received will come as a very pleasant surprise to many -
I suspect things will begin to shift again.

Too late for right now and of course there have been problems but in the longer term I doubt things are anything like as bad for the Labour Gov as some would love to portray.

[edit on 22-5-2008 by sminkeypinkey]

Just so everyone knows, the 7,000 Labour majority has been turned into a 7,860 Conservative majority. A very big swing.

Of course, this is a by-election and it's Labour who lost it rather than the Conservatives winning it. Still, it's a big blow to Labour without a doubt.

reply to post by Ste2652


Disenchantment with the establishment is not enough to cause an 18% swing!

Naturally I agree that it played a huge part; however there is still the issue that the Conservatives were presenting some sort of united, confident front which people trusted.

I notice the Lib Dems didnt get many extra votes... and theyre usually the party of the anti-establishment protest vote!

Nontheless, while this has no bearing on the general election outcome, I think its fair to say that an 18% swing is a butchering. I'll also be honest and say that I'm smiling a fair bit at this result.

The town where I grew up....

And boy did Browns Labour get a butt kicking. And the ripples are spreading with active talk of replacements and problems within the party already.

Will it change anything in the long run? I doubt it, because Labour has reached the same stage the Tories did when Major was in power - they really just don't care and are doing stuff because they can because of their parliamentary majority - but I DO like seeing people having their little worlds shook up a bit, and if it makes some of them think then it has to be a good thing.

Not to mention I was also extremely happy to see Labour's tactics backfire on numerous counts:

1. Reversion to old class war tactics.

2. Nepotism of trying to install Gwyneth Dunwoody's daughter.

3. £2.7bn spent trying to win a single byelection.

4. Calling the byelection earlier than decency would demand.

In my opinion, the most horrible decision was #4. Calling for a byelection before the funeral of Gwyneth Dunwoody was disrespectful in extremis. Maybe it is an issue of class after all... or rather a lack of it on behalf of the Labour party.