Do you believe in Peak Oil Now?, page 2

Originally posted by StellarX

Originally posted by LDragonFire
OK Peak oil is here!!!!!

Which is what the peak oil cheerleader have been screaming ever second year since the 1980's. Fool me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you? Where is your pride and how many more times are you going to be taken in the the same old scam?

We have had this debate before, and now we will continue it. People have been discussing peak oil long before the 1980's, It was first introduced by:

Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 – October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology and geophysics, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (or peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as "M. King Hubbert" or "King Hubbert".
wikipedia

He made other prediction regarding natural gas that he was dead wrong on he also made prediction about coal that have vet had time to mature.

However regarding peak oil and the USA he was dead on:

The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. Extraction roughly follows the discovery curve after a time lag (typically about 35 years for development. The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
Hubbert peak theory wikipedia

And according to this graph he was completely right:

Why must time go on for this to become any more accurate than it is today? Either we have reached a high point in oil production that well never be surpassed again or we haven't! You really can not have it both ways!

Where is the evidence that world oil production can not be expanded?

Stellar

Truthfully what more evidence do you need, just goto the gas station and tell everyone there that there is plenty of oil or gas and lets see the response you get. You can argue this when good news about oil and gas prices start coming in, do you expect to be able to do this soon?

world oil production can't be expanded if the rate of discovery's do not even come close to production. thats the peak oil theory!

Originally posted by LDragonFire
We have had this debate before, and now we will continue it. People have been discussing peak oil long before the 1980's, It was first introduced by:

He was discussing peak oil for the UNITED STATES since it was so well explored at the time. To propose that we use the Hubbert curve for the rest of the world is shear ignorance.

He made other prediction regarding natural gas that he was dead wrong on he also made prediction about coal that have vet had time to mature.

So according to you it's one out of three predictions while i would argue that it's non out of three?

However regarding peak oil and the USA he was dead on:

The Hubbert peak theory posits that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Yes, wiki author , it posits presuming that sufficient geological and general information exists which was in good part the case for Northern north American. To suggest that the Hubbert curve will hold true for the rest of the world based on far far less data is shear speculation.

Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines due to resource depletion.

So unless we know what type of production rates are being employed how will we ever know if oil is actually running out of if they are just making their profit trough higher prices while hanging on to the oil ?

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline.

And we don't know for a fact that it is in any obvious way finite and our best estimation corresponds more to the extraction cost than to any fundamental determination as to how much there is to be had.

Extraction roughly follows the discovery curve after a time lag (typically about 35 years for development. The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
Hubbert peak theory wikipedia

And for those that don't yet know this guy was asked to develop such a predictions by non other than the oil major he happened to work for at the time. How often is such predictions accurate and why has his oil predictions came to be true when the same can not be said for gas and coal? Why has twice the 1975 us oil reserve figure been produced to date? What does that say about reserve figures other than that they are hopelessly conservative for even well explored regions?

And according to this graph he was completely right:

The only thing the graph illustrates is that oil production followed the curve laid out by Hubbert. It does NOT prove that how much oil there was or are today. Where after all did all the oil come from that has been produced since the initial reserve of 1975 were exhausted within a few decades?

Truthfully what more evidence do you need, just goto the gas station and tell everyone there that there is plenty of oil or gas and lets see the response you get.

And what pray tell do they know about this subject matter other than the fact that they are paying more and more for gas? It's not that i need more evidence it's that i need ACTUAL evidence instead of this circumstantial illogical reasoning that tells me that the world's oil suddenly ran out and coincidentally so just as the US economy were tanking and a serious oil producer invaded. I wasn't born yesterday and i really can't do much about the fact that you apparently were.

You can argue this when good news about oil and gas prices start coming in, do you expect to be able to do this soon?

So please explain to me just how much gas and oil prices have to do with what people pay at the pump ? Do you know what are the sales and federal taxes are and the profit margins of oil producing countries and or oil majors? Why do you insist that high prices MUST mean that oil is running out? Do you panic when bread prices go up and immediately start wondering if there will ever be so much bread again? bah.

world oil production can't be expanded if the rate of discovery's do not even come close to production.

The rate of discovery has exceeded the rate of production for the vast majority of years during the last three decades and if it's currently taking a dive that either means there is no more oil to be found , suddenly, or that there is so much in evidence that finding any more could destroy the scarcity fears. Since you know where i stand can you at least explain why we have used up the worlds oil when we have been using coal so much longer and far larger volumes? Why hasn't steel, copped and other metals run out yet? Why on gods earth would OIL run out in a hundred years? How can anyone defend such nonsensical reasoning? In tonnage we mine only about twice as much Iron as we do oil , to say nothing of coal, and have been doing so for THOUSANDS of years longer without hitting any kind of 'peak' nonsense.

thats the peak oil theory!

That may be what you think or believe it is but frankly that's not even what mister peak himself had in mind.

Stellar

More bad news!



Still waiting for any Good news!

And taking ten million cars off US road would be LEAST of the problems it causes for most Americans who could in fact probably find a use just one car per family. What isn't said is what it would do to that half of America's population who are already only getting by each month by selling their future ( doing away with health care programs and various other investments) or borrowing against the increasing value of their homes.

Still waiting for any Good news!

Any chance your going to consider when i try to bring some good news by telling you that all of these problems are entirely artificial and can largely be dealt with by sufficient public awareness?

Stellar

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