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Originally posted by sty
but as far as i know it is not economically OK to exploitation of the remaining US resources unless the petrol exceeds 150$ /B
As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today’s $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.
The hoax of Peak Oil—namely the argument that the oil production has hit the point where more than half all reserves have been used and the world is on the downslope of oil at cheap price and abundant quantity—has enabled this costly fraud to continue since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 with the help of key banks, oil traders and big oil majors. Washington is trying to shift blame, as always, to Arab OPEC producers. The problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations.
World Oil Demand Flat, Prices Boom…
Perhaps 60% of oil prices today pure speculation
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today are the two leading energy trading firms in the United States. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are major players and fund numerous hedge funds as well who speculate.
In June 2006, oil traded in futures markets at some $60 a barrel and the Senate investigation estimated that some $25 of that was due to pure financial speculation. One analyst estimated in August 2005 that US oil inventory levels suggested WTI crude prices should be around $25 a barrel, and not $60.
That would mean today that at least $50 to $60 or more of today’s $115 a barrel price is due to pure hedge fund and financial institution speculation. However, given the unchanged equilibrium in global oil supply and demand over recent months amid the explosive rise in oil futures prices traded on Nymex and ICE exchanges in New York and London it is more likely that as much as 60% of the today oil price is pure speculation. No one knows officially except the tiny handful of energy trading banks in New York and London and they certainly aren’t talking.
By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures
prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.
As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing, resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices.
Compelling evidence also suggests that the oft-cited geopolitical, economic, and natural factors do not explain the recent rise in energy prices can be seen in the actual data on crude oil supply and demand. Although demand has significantly increased over the past few years, so have supplies.
Over the past couple of years global crude oil production has increased along with the increases in demand; in fact, during this period global supplies have exceeded demand, according to the US Department of Energy. The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently forecast that in the next few years global surplus production capacity will continue to grow to between 3 and 5 million barrels per day by 2010, thereby “substantially thickening the surplus capacity cushion.”
Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago says gasoline prices could drop below $3 a gallon sometime this summer.
Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
The lack of belief in peak oil is Astounding.
Why can't people on ATS understand that you can't have infinite growth of any non-renewable resource on a finite planet?
If I said that I had seen a alien probing Elvis, people wouldn't question it, but mention peak oil and it's a entirely different thing.
If the establishment" had their way, oil production would grow forever to keep the economy growing.
If oil prices keep going the way their going, business would be derail from their quest of infinite growth.
Originally posted by TheRedneck
We are not running out of oil. We are not running out of gasoline. We are not running out of diesel fuel. We are not running out of kerosene, natural gas, plastic, motor oil, tires...
We are experiencing an economic bubble with dire consequences. The dropping dollar is taking a toll on oil prices, yes, but it doesn't mean OPEC is getting more value for their oil, just more dollars which are worth less. that's one problem. But as SystemiK pointed out (correctly), the big problem is that speculators are driving up the price to make a buck for nothing.
Anyone see a gas line lately? How about rationing? I'd like to know where, because the last time I saw a sign that said 'out of fuel', it was right after katrina when the main supply lines to Atlanta were down. In two days, all was back to normal.
In the 70s, I saw plenty of gas lines, and remember having to wait in them to buy my 'allotment' on 'my day'. Funny, we still have gas after 30+ years.
Quit listening to the MSM. It's an exercise in self-torture. Their purpose is to convince you that the end is near so you spend every penny you can to avoid the terrible crisis they manufactured.
Originally posted by LDragonFire
I have read about this bubble, but with gas here at $3.89 a gallon it would be nice to see this bubble burst.
At just over $130 a barrel, the price has doubled in around a year, causing misery for motorists and businesses.
However, Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically.
"You can also anticipate that [the bubble] will eventually correct but that is unlikely to happen before the recession actually reduces the demand.