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Do you believe in Peak Oil Now?

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posted on May, 21 2008 @ 11:50 AM
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In 1999 oil was $19 a barrel, and today oil passed $132 a barrel It's a hard time for the consumers but big Oil Is making more money than they now what to do with. They are squeezing every cent they can out of us no matter what the consequence.

So are we living in the beginning of Peak Oil and are we being taken advantage of by Big Oil in there effort to sustain maximum profit at all of our expense?

Is Big Oil and the Government Suppressing Alternative Energy Technology to insure maximum profit for the oil industry, even though it's driving our whole economy into the gutter?

Now can you see oil hitting $200 a barrel like has been mentioned?




posted on May, 22 2008 @ 07:28 AM
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Up and Up it goes! where it stops nobody knows!!


With gas and oil prices setting new records nearly every day, many analysts are beginning to wonder what might stop prices from rising. There are technical signals in the futures market, including price differences between near-term and longer-term contracts, that crude may soon fall. But with demand for oil growing in the developing world, and little end in sight to supply problems in producing countries such as Nigeria, few analysts are willing to call an end to crude's rally.
cnn

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.




No one has opinions about this? Do you believe in Peak oil? Is it occuring right now? Or Not?



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 07:37 AM
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The term defining "Peak Oil" had to occur at some point. There are technical, scientific reasons for this, but basically it's just a limited resource being consumed.

Now we enter an interesting period of time. Do we say to heck with environmental concerns and develop massive strip mines for more shale oil in the western US and open up off shore drilling that has been taboo for so long. Or, do we let the world's economy just die off the vine from the lack of no more easy oil.



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 08:25 AM
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I don't think it's peak oil at all. I think it's a combination of several factors, one of which is the reluctance to use viable oil sources here in the USA. Can you show evidence of a significant decrease in oil production in the middle east? What I see happening is a steady increase in demand and politicians keeping us from using our own oil.


sty

posted on May, 22 2008 @ 08:52 AM
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it is very hard to tell if this oil-peak is a natural one or not. I guess it is too much market manipulation involved in it to actually have a good picture on what is the real situation with the oil supply. In the mean time , the oil companies keep on reporting all - time- high profit for their shareholders , and i guess it is not you or me

sty


sty

posted on May, 22 2008 @ 08:57 AM
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reply to post by BlueTriangle
 

the deal was to import the petrol from the middle -east in exchange with using the US$ as the only Worldwide currency to buy petrol. This backed the US$ a lot . Now as countries started to shift away from the US$ , the value of this currency is being adjusted to another value .Yes, it would be good if US would use their own petrol resources - but as far as i know it is not economically OK to exploitation of the remaining US resources unless the petrol exceeds 150$ /B



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:13 AM
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Originally posted by sty
but as far as i know it is not economically OK to exploitation of the remaining US resources unless the petrol exceeds 150$ /B


I just checked and I see several sources saying that it becomes viable in the $79 - $80 range.



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:14 AM
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I've heard mostly conflicting information in regards to "peak oil". So I'm really not sure what to think. However, every time I hear the term "peak oil" my BS detector starts going off. Not sure why.

Something needs to be done though. And fast. Alternative energy will be great once it comes online. But it will not be an easy or seamless transition. Especially for those who can't afford the latest "alternative" technology.

Peak oil or not, we need to find some cheaper oil for mean time. Either that or just say "screw it" and let our rat race fueled system crash and burn.



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:35 AM
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Before you willingly throw yourselves under the peak oil bus, you should at least consider the following 2 part article....

Part II: Link


As detailed in an earlier article, a conservative calculation is that at least 60% of today’s $128 per barrel price of crude oil comes from unregulated futures speculation by hedge funds, banks and financial groups using the London ICE Futures and New York NYMEX futures exchanges and uncontrolled inter-bank or Over-The-Counter trading to avoid scrutiny. US margin rules of the government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission allow speculators to buy a crude oil futures contract on the Nymex, by having to pay only 6% of the value of the contract. At today's price of $128 per barrel, that means a futures trader only has to put up about $8 for every barrel. He borrows the other $120. This extreme “leverage” of 16 to 1 helps drive prices to wildly unrealistic levels and offset bank losses in sub-prime and other disasters at the expense of the overall population.

The hoax of Peak Oil—namely the argument that the oil production has hit the point where more than half all reserves have been used and the world is on the downslope of oil at cheap price and abundant quantity—has enabled this costly fraud to continue since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 with the help of key banks, oil traders and big oil majors. Washington is trying to shift blame, as always, to Arab OPEC producers. The problem is not a lack of crude oil supply. In fact the world is in over-supply now. Yet the price climbs relentlessly higher. Why? The answer lies in what are clearly deliberate US government policies that permit the unbridled oil price manipulations.

World Oil Demand Flat, Prices Boom…



Part I: Link


Perhaps 60% of oil prices today pure speculation

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today are the two leading energy trading firms in the United States. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are major players and fund numerous hedge funds as well who speculate.

In June 2006, oil traded in futures markets at some $60 a barrel and the Senate investigation estimated that some $25 of that was due to pure financial speculation. One analyst estimated in August 2005 that US oil inventory levels suggested WTI crude prices should be around $25 a barrel, and not $60.

That would mean today that at least $50 to $60 or more of today’s $115 a barrel price is due to pure hedge fund and financial institution speculation. However, given the unchanged equilibrium in global oil supply and demand over recent months amid the explosive rise in oil futures prices traded on Nymex and ICE exchanges in New York and London it is more likely that as much as 60% of the today oil price is pure speculation. No one knows officially except the tiny handful of energy trading banks in New York and London and they certainly aren’t talking.

By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures

prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.

As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing, resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices.

Compelling evidence also suggests that the oft-cited geopolitical, economic, and natural factors do not explain the recent rise in energy prices can be seen in the actual data on crude oil supply and demand. Although demand has significantly increased over the past few years, so have supplies.

Over the past couple of years global crude oil production has increased along with the increases in demand; in fact, during this period global supplies have exceeded demand, according to the US Department of Energy. The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently forecast that in the next few years global surplus production capacity will continue to grow to between 3 and 5 million barrels per day by 2010, thereby “substantially thickening the surplus capacity cushion.”


Surprisingly, the solution to our current crisis may lie within the hands of our legislators to regulate this trend of speculation, rather than in our ability to find and deliver more oil. Some food for thought here people....



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:37 AM
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Here is what some experts are saying now:


It may be the mother of all doom and gloom gas price predictions: $12 for a gallon of gas is “inevitable.”

Robert Hirsch, Management Information Services Senior Energy Advisor, gave a dire warning about the potential future of gas prices on CNBC’s May 20 “Squawk Box”. He told host Becky Quick there was no single thing that would solve the problem, due to the enormity of the problem.

“[T]he prices that we’re paying at the pump today are, I think, going to be ‘the good old days,’ because others who watch this very closely forecast that we’re going to be hitting $12 and $15 per gallon,” Hirsch said. “And then, after that, when oil – world oil production goes into decline, we’re going to talk about rationing. In other words, not only are we going to be paying high prices and have considerable economic problems, but in addition to that, we’re not going to be able to get the fuel when we want it.”
Sqawk Box

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Peak Oil is the End to cheap oil, and I think we have arrived.


Hirsch argued that the maximum in world oil production has already been hit.

"The idea is that [world oil production] would hit a sharp peak and then drop off, and what's happened is, we've hit a plateau in world oil production, and that plateau has been ongoing since about the middle of 2004," he said.

Those who argue that new technology and new types of energy will solve the problem aren't on solid ground, Hirsch suggested.
CNBC

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


$12 to $15 for a gallon of gas is insane, but I thought it was insane when they said it would goto $4 a gallon.



posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:46 AM
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People don't understand what Peak Oil means. It's a euphemism for higher oil prices. There may or may not be a supply/demand problem, but it dosen't matter. If the oil companies say Peak Oil, it's Peak Oil.

They could call it Screw You and Your Momma Oil or Die You Filthy Scum Oil. What are we going to do about it. Attack the oil companies and get bombed by the airforce. Dig our own well with a Black and Decker cordless drill. NO. We'll pay what they charge, complain, worry, chew our fingernails, whimper like dogs, and beg god it dosen't go much higher so we can still drive to work and buy food.

If I was an oil company I'd call it Got You Right Were We Want You Oil.




posted on May, 22 2008 @ 09:52 AM
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Here are what some other "experts" are saying.



Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading in Chicago says gasoline prices could drop below $3 a gallon sometime this summer.


Oil Expert Says Gas Prices Could Drop Soon

It's no different than global warming. You can probably find "experts" that are on both ends of the spectrum. All anyone can really do is wait and see.



posted on May, 23 2008 @ 11:14 AM
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The lack of belief in peak oil is Astounding. Why can't people on ATS understand that you can't have infinite growth of any non-renewable resource on a finite planet? If I said that I had seen a alien probing Elvis, people wouldn't question it, but mention peak oil and it's a entirely different thing.
If the establishment" had their way, oil production would grow forever to keep the economy growing. If oil prices keep going the way their going, business would be derail from their quest of infinite growth.



posted on May, 23 2008 @ 11:44 PM
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Originally posted by Anonymous ATS
The lack of belief in peak oil is Astounding.


Well the problem with that theory is that when i actually studied it turned out that it was in fact all about belief with the facts being hidden or dismissed.


Why can't people on ATS understand that you can't have infinite growth of any non-renewable resource on a finite planet?


I think the 'people' on ATS understands that there can not be infinite growth of a non renewable resources but i also know there are at least a few who don't believe that oil is very different from coal ( and we have used far more coal) and that the coal doomers haven't been any more accurate than the oil peakers have been. Why humans would have been able to use up oil when we are still swimming in resources that we have used for thousands of years i just DON'T KNOW but that's the type of nonsense you have to believe to support this peak ' any-moment-now' stuff.


If I said that I had seen a alien probing Elvis, people wouldn't question it, but mention peak oil and it's a entirely different thing.


I wouldn't know as i don't take part in idiotic discussions/threads.


If the establishment" had their way, oil production would grow forever to keep the economy growing.


If they wanted to make the global economy grow they could introduce various types of alternative energies that are both more labor intensive ( but not resource) and far more sustainable thus creating both spending power and production capacity. The establishment have always done their best to prevent growth of the human economy as growth normally results people gaining access to energy and resources thus allowing them to better themselves; not something the establishments benefits by.


If oil prices keep going the way their going, business would be derail from their quest of infinite growth.


But since a oil price much in excess of 30 USD per barrel is not tied to anything remotely approaching fundamentals their quest for infinite growth is clearly completely illusory. 'Growth' is something they will accept if it's in profits but not something they take sitting down when it's in wages or any place where actual people benefit by it.

Stellar



posted on May, 24 2008 @ 09:13 AM
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Robert Hirsch Was just on MSNBC, restating what he has been saying about how we have reached the peak of oil production.

They were also reporting [not related to Hirsch] that some experts are saying we could see $5 to $6 dollars a gallon for gas this summer.


Oil prices have doubled in the past year and have shot up nearly 50 percent since January to a record $135 a barrel. Much of the rise appears to be driven by speculators betting that tight supplies — or outright shortages — will push prices even higher.

Consumers — already hit with rising prices and flat wages — are being stretched further. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer driving season, gasoline prices are at record levels, reaching a national average above $3.83 a gallon. Some analysts predict the average will break past $4 as early as next week. In some parts of the country, prices are already closing in on $5.
Oil price spike has wide economic impact

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


The world that we all know seems to be changing. You all that wanna say that peak oil is not true, well when I SEE and LIVE this I will Believe you, but what I know is what I SEE and what I See is Not Good! There doesn't seem to be a end in site!

Gas for your cars, fuel for heating our homes, and the price of food and almost everything else is growing higher and higher all based on the price for a barrel of oil. Just because there isn't lines around the bloke at your local gas station doesn't mean that there are not shortages.



posted on May, 24 2008 @ 09:22 AM
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If peak oil is not here, it is very close. ATS's do seem to have a problem believing in PO, because they say its based on no facts? Let me direct you to a couple of web sites the first one is



posted on May, 24 2008 @ 09:37 AM
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We are not running out of oil. We are not running out of gasoline. We are not running out of diesel fuel. We are not running out of kerosene, natural gas, plastic, motor oil, tires...

We are experiencing an economic bubble with dire consequences. The dropping dollar is taking a toll on oil prices, yes, but it doesn't mean OPEC is getting more value for their oil, just more dollars which are worth less. that's one problem. But as SystemiK pointed out (correctly), the big problem is that speculators are driving up the price to make a buck for nothing.

Anyone see a gas line lately? How about rationing? I'd like to know where, because the last time I saw a sign that said 'out of fuel', it was right after katrina when the main supply lines to Atlanta were down. In two days, all was back to normal.

In the 70s, I saw plenty of gas lines, and remember having to wait in them to buy my 'allotment' on 'my day'. Funny, we still have gas after 30+ years.

Quit listening to the MSM. It's an exercise in self-torture. Their purpose is to convince you that the end is near so you spend every penny you can to avoid the terrible crisis they manufactured.

TheRedneck



posted on May, 26 2008 @ 10:38 PM
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Originally posted by TheRedneck
We are not running out of oil. We are not running out of gasoline. We are not running out of diesel fuel. We are not running out of kerosene, natural gas, plastic, motor oil, tires...


Peak oil is not about running out of anything it's about the End to Cheap oil and it seems we have arrived.


We are experiencing an economic bubble with dire consequences. The dropping dollar is taking a toll on oil prices, yes, but it doesn't mean OPEC is getting more value for their oil, just more dollars which are worth less. that's one problem. But as SystemiK pointed out (correctly), the big problem is that speculators are driving up the price to make a buck for nothing.


I have read about this bubble, but with gas here at $3.89 a gallon it would be nice to see this bubble burst.


Anyone see a gas line lately? How about rationing? I'd like to know where, because the last time I saw a sign that said 'out of fuel', it was right after katrina when the main supply lines to Atlanta were down. In two days, all was back to normal.


Time will tell, so far there is more evidence that peak oil is occurring right now.


In the 70s, I saw plenty of gas lines, and remember having to wait in them to buy my 'allotment' on 'my day'. Funny, we still have gas after 30+ years.

Quit listening to the MSM. It's an exercise in self-torture. Their purpose is to convince you that the end is near so you spend every penny you can to avoid the terrible crisis they manufactured.

TheRedneck


I don't have to watch msm about this, we are living this right now! BTW many are using every penny just to get back and forth to work. I see no evidence of a manufactured crisis. Just the end of cheap oil and gas based on supply and demand.



posted on May, 26 2008 @ 11:18 PM
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Originally posted by LDragonFire
I have read about this bubble, but with gas here at $3.89 a gallon it would be nice to see this bubble burst.



George Soros mentions this oil bubble in the link, unfortunately, the burst may not come before the damage is done.


At just over $130 a barrel, the price has doubled in around a year, causing misery for motorists and businesses.

However, Mr Soros warned that the oil bubble would not burst until both the US and Britain were in recession, after which prices could fall dramatically.

"You can also anticipate that [the bubble] will eventually correct but that is unlikely to happen before the recession actually reduces the demand.



Video: George Soros: rocketing oil price is a bubble



posted on Jun, 9 2008 @ 01:06 PM
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Well So far I haven't seen any sign of a oil bubble, lets all hope and wait and see, but in the meantime we have this reality to deal with:


Gas Pushes Above $4, Likely To Go Higher

(CBS/AP) Retail gas prices rose further above a national average of $4 Monday, and are likely to keep rising as distributors and retailers hike prices in response to last week's unprecedented oil price rally. Oil futures, meanwhile, retreated as investors sold to lock in profits from the run-up, though oil prices may be headed even higher.

At the pump, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas rose 1.8 cents overnight to a record $4.023, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Prices first moved above $4 nationally on Sunday, though they've been higher than that in many parts of the country for weeks.

If oil prices remain near $139 a barrel, last week's record high, gas prices will likely rise another dime in coming days, said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J.
Gas Pushes Above $4, Likely To Go Higher

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Personally I use public transportation everyday buses and light rail and Ridership is waaaay up compared to last year.




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