An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

3 EQ's at varying depths..

Now you want to see a beautiful volcano.... Mt. Shasta is it.
(I know many of you have been there...)


I have noticed that unser the PNW volcanoes, there has been more rumblings lately. Now add northern cali to the mix.

Still more. At least the magnitudes are going down.

Magnitude 4.9 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 19 19:25:56 UTC

Location 32.477°S, 71.615°W
Depth 41.9 km (26.0 miles)
Region OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Distances 68 km (42 miles) N (4°) from Valparaiso, Chile

Edit to add:

Magnitude 4.1 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 19 03:04:18 UTC

[edit on 12/19/08 by kattraxx]

Hello all! I am having a rare night with very little in the line of complaints, it is now 4:14am est, and I am only having ringing in my ears, light and shrill. Earlier tonight I was having pressure in my head but that went away quickly.

Magnitude 5.0 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 20 11:29:36 UTC

Location 32.498°S, 71.914°W
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Distances 70 km (40 miles) NNW of Valparaiso, Chile

The order of the EQ's seems to have changed overnight....

MAP 5.0 2008/12/20 11:29:36 -32.498 -71.914 35.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 4.9 2008/12/19 19:25:57 -32.475 -71.627 45.8 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.0 2008/12/19 16:48:52 -32.538 -71.734 35.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.1 2008/12/19 13:57:31 -32.519 -71.623 27.1 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.7 2008/12/19 09:36:06 -32.424 -71.625 28.1 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.2 2008/12/19 07:30:06 -32.537 -72.020 12.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 4.1 2008/12/19 03:04:18 -32.461 -71.901 40.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.0 2008/12/18 21:50:28 -32.484 -71.670 10.6 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.2 2008/12/18 21:19:29 -32.421 -71.561 19.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Magnitude 4.9 - OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
2008 December 20 16:43:08 UTC

(From the USGS site)
--------------------------------
Also, going on now, in neighboring Argentina:

Magnitude 5.3 - SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
2008 December 20 17:07:03 UTC

Magnitude 4.6 - JUJUY, ARGENTINA
2008 December 20 07:12:04 UTC

[edit on 12/20/08 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 3.0 - GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
2008 December 20 17:17:43 UTC

Location 34.398°N, 118.748°W
Depth 10.8 km (6.7 miles)
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances 5 km (3 miles) ESE (102°) from Piru, CA
14 km (9 miles) N (357°) from Simi Valley, CA
16 km (10 miles) E (91°) from Fillmore, CA
22 km (14 miles) W (265°) from Santa Clarita, CA
60 km (37 miles) NW (310°) from Los Angeles Civic Center

The hot springs and geysers in California are still very very active.


[edit on 12/20/08 by kattraxx]

Those quakes in Chile are getting even more interesting. Besides the group that has occurred in the past few days on the coastal region near Valparaiso, there have now been two inland -- over the border in Argentina. One was a mag 4.6 which occurred at 07:12:04 UTC today (Dec 20), located at 24.008°S, 66.611°W in Jujuy, Argentina, and the most recent was a mag 5.3 at 31.516°S, 68.004°W in San Juan, Argentina which struck today at 17:07:03 UTC. The map which shows these quakes on USGS can be accessed here.

What concerns me most about this series of quakes and especially the latest one, is their location within the shallow subduction zone which as the map below shows, exists between approx 28 and 33 S lat and extends from about 76 to 63 W longitude. I have tried to indicate the locations of these quakes as accurately as possible on this map:



(Original greyscale map reworked with colorizations by the author of this post. Reproduced for informational and educational purposes. This map is taken from The proto-Andean margin of Gondwana: an introduction by R. J. Pankhurst and C. W. Rapela, Geological Society, London, Special Publications 1998; v. 142; p. 1-9, which is available as a PDF document on this link.

The most recent quake -- and even the one earlier today -- could suggest that the subducted region is either in the process of moving eastwards, or at very least, is exerting sufficient pressure to trigger quakes away from the near-shore subduction boundary. This does not have to mean that a major subduction event is imminent, but I have to point out that the most powerful earthquake in the 20th century (a mag 9.5) occurred in Chile due to a major subduction event.

In other words, this an area to keep an eye on for now.

Mike


[edit on 20/12/08 by JustMike]

That's what I've been thinking. It's all connected and it's about that subduction zone pushing deeper. This is one scary region. And with all the activity here, I think I might have defined a new precursor for Argentina.

Did you notice, JustMike, how the list of the offshore Chile EQ's changed during the night? At first, they seemed to be in descending mags, but this morning, the mags are all over the place.

reply to post by kattraxx

All those quakes in that subduction zone's region are worrisome, yes.

About the listing: I think that because of the number of quakes in that small region they've gone for a chronological display rather than ranking by magnitude. I noticed also that they have refined the positions for a few quakes, but the amounts are very minor and would reasonably reflect a more detailed assessment of the data. It's pretty likely that a whole bunch of seismologists are studying all that data very carefully indeed. The Great Chilean Earthquake of 1960 ( at mag 9.5) is something they all would have learned about in "Subduction Processes 101" and I bet that any time things start getting lively in a Sth American subduction zone they start paying pretty close attention.

Here's the list I posted yesterday.

MAP 5.0 2008/12/19 16:48:52 -32.538 -71.734 35.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.1 2008/12/19 13:57:31 -32.513 -71.600 29.7 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.5 2008/12/19 09:36:06 -32.445 -71.709 27.5 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 5.2 2008/12/19 07:30:10 -32.508 -71.737 33.2 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.0 2008/12/18 21:50:28 -32.484 -71.670 10.6 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
MAP 6.2 2008/12/18 21:19:29 -32.421 -71.561 19.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Oh, I found this description of what happened in the mountains above Santiago, Chile in 1987. Sounds eerily familiar...

On 29 November 1987, because of a regional (summer) thaw and the instability of mountains affected by the 1985 earthquake, an avalanche was generated in a small valley (Quebrada de Parraguirre) in the volcanic area. The avalanche caused a mudflow that descended the Río Colorado, killing 41 persons, destroying roads, machinery, and the Los Maitenes hydroelectric plant along some 50 km until its confluence with the Río Maipó, which passes through the city of Santiago. Also affected were the city's drinking water installations, and some 500,000 persons were left without water for 48 hours."

[edit on 12/20/08 by kattraxx]

I just saw therewas a 6.3 off the coast of Japan today. All that activity off the coast of Chile is pretty spooky.
I noticed my duahgters headache activity has geared up too, but I don't know what areas are indicated by headaches.She said dhe had a pretty bad one last night. Trying to get an idea if she's sensitive.

reply to post by missvicky


Headaches seem to be a precursor for many regions.

If you believe your daughter may be sensitive (and I believe many, if not most, people are), you can contact Charlotte King at [email protected] and she'll point you in the right direction.

Magnitude 5.7 - SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
2008 December 20 21:05:17 UTC

pynner and I were musing on the web bot descriptors for twin mega-quakes and thought: suppose a mega-thrust earthquake hit the South American subduction zone... say something in the +10 magnitude... It seems logical that would jolt all the faults on the planet, possibly causing another mega-thrust earthquake in another "stuck" zone, like the Juan de Fuca.

In fact, scientists often compare the two subduction zones for study because they are so similar, almost like twins.

[edit on 12/20/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx

While a mag 10-plus is possible (as the scale is open-ended), I quail to think of what would result from such an event...I think we all do, but for any readers who perhaps are not so clear on what a magnitude 10-plus quake implies, it doesn't mean that it's just a bit stronger than a mag 9. The scale is logarithmic, which means in simple terms that one magnitude difference (like between a "6" and a "7" for example), computes to ten times the difference in ground motion and about 32 times in energy released.

To put this in perspective, if we recall the Asian "tsunami" quake of Dec 2004, which has been estimated at between a 9.1 and 9.3, the whole world literally oscillated with its effects and it produced after-shocks in the mag 8 range... So a quake a magnitude higher and therefore releasing about 30 times more energy, would likely cause even more severe oscillations and after-shocks -- and over a much wider area. (Larger quakes can even trigger others many thousands of miles away.) The effects of a mag 10-plus could be so severe that they would trigger other major subduction zones or slip faults and get them moving as well -- and possibly also bring some volcanoes into life. This could create a domino effect, with results so catastrophic that they might outweigh all other natural disasters of the past century combined.

It could take a long time before things settled down again...

It's a very scary scenario, one that would affect many millions of people directly and millions more from the secondary effects. Let's hope that such a massive quake doesn't occur. It would actually be "better" to have several mag nines than a single 10-plus.

As a footnote to this, when the mag 9.5 quake struck Chile in 1960, it was so powerful that the energy released was equivalent to about one-quarter of all the energy released by all other quakes in the 20th century. A mag ten-plus, then, would release about six times the total energy of all quakes in the past 100 years...and all in a few minutes.

We can only hope and pray that such an event is not in the offing.


[edit on 20/12/08 by JustMike]

Just like to post something interesting about some quakes that have occurred today. Note the latitudes for the following:

Mag 5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 06:10:29 UTC
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 06:10:29 PM at epicenter
31.150°S, 177.756°W

Mag 5.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 11:29:36 UTC
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 08:29:36 AM at epicenter
32.498°S, 71.914°W

Mag 4.9 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 16:43:08 UTC
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 01:43:08 PM at epicenter
32.403°S, 71.923°W

Mag 5.3 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 17:07:00 UTC
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 02:07:00 PM at epicenter
31.569°S, 68.068°W

Mag 5.7 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 21:05:17 UTC
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 08:05:17 PM at epicenter
31.228°S, 13.406°W

Mag 5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 22:40:18 UTC
Sunday, December 21, 2008 at 10:40:18 AM at epicenter
30.242°S, 178.559°W

Here's a map that shows them. It's all the orange ones (except for that one smaller one in Argentina):



(Image from USGS. Reproduced for educational and informational purposes.)
Probably only a statistical oddity but I simply thought it strange to have six quakes spread over a fair range of longitude but within around 2 degrees of latitude. Maybe all means nothing but I thought I’d share it anyway.

Mike


[edit on 20/12/08 by JustMike]

Magnitude 4.7 - ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
2008 December 21 06:48:14 UTC

22.821°S, 67.943°W
Depth 97.8 km (60.8 miles)
Region ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE
Distances 110 km (70 miles) ESE of Calama, Chile

It is 348am, early sunday morning, I continued to have a pretty clear day, with the exception of ears ringing different tones, but I just started getting louder tones, lower tones with a second high tone. Lower abdomen pain, and a headache in my temples. I just checked the USGS map, all looks rather quite right now, all yellow. We'll see.

Edit to add: I just noticed I am clenching my teeth, I didn't realize I was doing that. Is that a precursor?

[edit on 21-12-2008 by space cadet]

Magnitude 4.1 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 21 17:35:36 UTC

36.676°N, 121.301°W
Depth 6.9 km (4.3 miles)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances 13 km (8 miles) S (172°) from Tres Pinos, CA
21 km (13 miles) NW (319°) from Pinnacles, CA

Pinnacles Nat'l Monument, CA

An Ancient Volcano

Rising out of the chaparral-covered Gabilan Mountains, east of central California's Salinas Valley, are the spectacular remains of an ancient volcano. Massive monoliths, spires, sheer-walled canyons and talus passages define millions of years of erosion, faulting and tectonic plate movement.

www.nps.gov...

Magnitude 2.2 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 21 18:06:25 UTC

Hot springs area... still expecting something +4.5 in California soon. Could be N. California.

Edit to add:
Magnitude 3.7 - CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
2008 December 21 20:09:33 UTC

MAP 1.2 2008/12/21 20:24:07 36.675 -121.305 6.3 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 3.7 2008/12/21 20:09:33 36.677 -121.304 6.5 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 1.6 2008/12/21 19:42:18 36.680 -121.311 5.8 12 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.0 2008/12/21 19:00:10 36.677 -121.312 7.0 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.4 2008/12/21 18:59:33 36.676 -121.331 7.8 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 3.0 2008/12/21 18:58:47 36.684 -121.314 6.6 12 km ( 7 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.0 2008/12/21 18:39:22 36.683 -121.313 6.9 12 km ( 7 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.2 2008/12/21 18:17:41 36.678 -121.308 5.9 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.6 2008/12/21 18:16:24 36.679 -121.309 5.4 12 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.2 2008/12/21 18:06:25 36.680 -121.306 4.4 12 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 1.2 2008/12/21 18:03:15 36.681 -121.307 5.4 12 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 2.5 2008/12/21 17:56:48 36.682 -121.311 4.7 12 km ( 7 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 1.1 2008/12/21 17:40:35 36.675 -121.306 6.1 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 4.1 2008/12/21 17:35:36 36.676 -121.301 6.9 13 km ( 8 mi) S of Tres Pinos, CA
MAP 1.8 2008/12/21 15:57:47 37.289 -121.668 1.9 15 km ( 9 mi) E of Seven Trees, CA
MAP 1.3 2008/12/21 08:53:46 36.848 -121.309 7.6 7 km ( 4 mi) N of Tres Pinos, CA


[edit on 12/21/08 by kattraxx]

Offshore Peru:

Magnitude 4.4 - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
2008 December 21 15:49:13 UTC

5.515°S, 81.144°W
Depth 31.7 km (19.7 miles) (poorly constrained)
Region NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
Distances 65 km (40 miles) WSW of Piura, Peru
205 km (130 miles) NW of Chiclayo, Peru
655 km (405 miles) SSW of QUITO, Ecuador
855 km (530 miles) NNW of LIMA, Peru

ooooo Katt, I love the purple eye! Nice!


I am expecting some activity tonight, it is 1245am, est, and I am having major stomach pain, upper stomach area, loud shrill ear ringing, sharp pains in my upper back, shoulder blade areas. Just wanted to document that for tonight.