An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

China seems like the likely spot imo as well, They are still havening pretty decent sized quakes dally/weekly. And the info given about the quake lakes Just does not lead one to good conclusion, Not to mention how interestingly it would coincide with with many prophecies about the 2008 Olympics. and how china is playing a major role in the world stage currently.

For the sake of completeness I am providing further confirmation that the USGS and its affiliate deleted the NE Nevada quake of June 11 2008. My original post from yesterday is here.

Here is the USGS map that shows the quake. It is shown in red as is normal for quakes occurring within (approx) the previous hour:



Here is the USGS map less than 12 hours later. By their standards, quakes in US are shown in blue for 24 hours, then they change to yellow. So there should be a blue square in place of the red square shown in the image above, but it is not there:



For further confirmation, here is the data search page from the University of Nevada - Reno Seismological Laboratory (UNRSL), covering June 10 to June 12 2008, which does not list any quakes in Nevada over mag 2.5 for June 11. Note that the times are GMT by default, but all the same this search covers all of June 11. Lat. and long are also defaults in the system, which cover all of Nevada:



Please note however that it lists four mag 3-plus quakes for June 10...It might be worth plotting their exact locations on a map according to the coordinates given. I hope someone who has perhaps a bit more free time than me will do this.

Full screen shots of these new images: USGS Map of USA and UNRSL Data Search.

The UNRSL cooperates with USGS -- and not only in sharing and maintaining data, but also in deleting it. However, it might be worth getting screen shots of their data search page for any new quakes in their region that we feel might be deleted, as they might delete their data later than USGS does. Worth a try, anyway. Here's the link to the UNRSL Earthquake Catalog Search Page.

I noticed two quakes in two new locations.
1.) 5.3 Southern East Pacific Rise
2.) 4.6 Galapagas Triple Junction Region

I see two new areas in NV. Sun Valley and Lemmon Valley.

These guys are up to something with deleting.

Something weird...maybe it's just a glitch but I can't get the main USGS World Quake Map to load.

Here is the link for recent earthquakes world-wide. Could someone please try it and see if they can get this page to load? Thanks!

Mike.

Edited to fix typos.

[edit on 12-6-2008 by JustMike]

I just tried it Mike and it doesn't work for me either.

I just got in so I have to look around and get myself updated.

USGS EQ

This page loads...

Good morning all.

Edit to Add: I use this page sometimes....

Global EQs

[edit on 6/12/08 by kattraxx]

Time to post some predictions I think. Personally I hadn't had any for a few days but now I'd to mention some areas. The time frame in all the following cases is within about three days.

The first prediction is for a quake in the vicinity of the Kuril Islands, but more likely at the north-eastern end. Magnitude I feel will be 5.5 or larger. The second is off the west coast of Nth America. I feel most strongly about off the coast of Oregon, but not so strongly that it will be directly west of Eugene as in my previous prediction. Magnitude for this one may not be so great but I would expect over 4.0 on this occasion. Could actually be two or three close together there, both in location and time.

Okay one more I should mention but it puzzles me as there is almost never any quake activity there of any note but here goes: the Iberian Peninsula. This region includes Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Gibraltar and a small part of France in the mountains there. Wish I could be more specific but right now I can't nail it down much better. Time window is the same: around 3 days. I cannot give anything much on magnitude but it would have to be enough to get on the main maps so that would likely mean around 4.5 or greater. However as I said, quakes of any significance are very rare in this region so I have almost nothing to go on empirically. It would make more sense if the quake were up in the mountains (ie the Pyrenees) than anywhere else but the way things are happening these days, plain old sense isn't always the best guide.

Mike

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat, good to see you

Yes, that one loads but clicking on the little world map there to get the bigger one (to study quakes in detail) just gives me a blank screen...

Technical glitch or annoyed/panicked USGS staff? Hmmmm...

Originally posted by JustMike
Here is the link for recent earthquakes world-wide. Could someone please try it and see if they can get this page to load? Thanks!

[edit on 12-6-2008 by JustMike]

Mike,

I couldn't get it to load either.

:waves: good morning folks..coffee anyone?

Tela

It's loading now.

They were probably busy deleting EQs.

reply to post by Telafree

Good afternoon Telafree! Just about to have dinner here. (Coming up to 6 pm.)

About the USGS Main World Map being down: I figure that if it's a glitch then it's just not available online, whereas if "someone" is trying to block access to it to people who visit their site, then it's available somewhere by a "back door". I come to this conclusion because the US map is up and running; only the main World map isn't, so it's not like their servers have gone out to lunch.

Well....it's available by a back door.

Here's a link to it on cires.colorado site.

This map doesn't give exactly the same performance as the usual USGS map but it's there and updating. (Just click refresh on your browser to update.

EDIT to add:

Well well well...The main World map is now back up and working on USGS again. What amazingly fortunate and coincidental timing!

I wonder if they have someone now who is assigned the job of reading this thread?



[edit on 12-6-2008 by JustMike]

Morning everyone,
Sun valley, golden valley...... they are spreading out, and I dont like it., these are not areas that get them, and they are north of reno, i dont think connected to verdi/mogul
sun valley, golden valley nv

I forgot to list this when i wrote about the active weekend we had...

Something is goin to, on saturday, when all the hair stood up on my daughter's and my neck and arms, in the seconds before the quake hit, I felt an almost overwhelming sense of fear and panic. it ended as soon as the quake hit, and no more static electricity, but for those few seconds, I exeprienced fear like I have never known....ever..... I can't explain it...

edit for spelling...


[edit on 12-6-2008 by damntheptb]

Here's a good page full of information on seismic monitoring networks around the world....

Seismic Monitoring Networks

I'll be off doing some research for a bit-- there's something I want to check out. If it pans out at all, I'll post it.

THURSDAY JUNE 12TH 4:00 PM PACIFIC TIME

I just started to get a sore stomache, in the center, not like anything ive had before, i think this might be the 'seismic flu', feels a little like too much caffeine in stomache, and too many situps.... very intense.. ringing in both ears, it feels like it is between both ears going outwards through my whole head...

I have a feeling the sierra's are going to be shaking... The ringing and pain is pretty intense, so i will be watching our area closely....

I'll got knocked on my butt from a stupid dentist appointment, yup Grandma's a big baby!

Ouchy, ouch, ouch, ouch.

Hopefully I'll be up and kicking in the morning. I just took a pill to help with the discomfort.

Suggestion, brush your teeth and take good care of them because you will reget it one day if you don't.

Originally posted by JustMike
While I was expecting a quake in the Philippines plate region within this time window, I thought it would be around a magnitude 6.0, so it's possible there will be another very close to this small plate's location within a day -- but I'm not speaking of an aftershock in the same place, I mean a fresh quake on a different part of the fault. (Like happened in Japan this past week.)

Mike

The above is from one of my posts on June 6. I forgot to put up the info that there was another quake in the Philippine plate region within a day, namely in Mindoro (the Philippines) on June 7. Because the data will be dropping off the maps/data pages within a few hours here is a screen shot of the data page:



This quake was in a different region of the plate (ie not an aftershock), and there were other quakes also in the Philippines in the following days, including a mag 5.2 in Mindanao, Philippines on June 10 and a mag 5.4 in Mindanao on June 11.

Could I reasonably claim a hit for these?

reply to post by JustMike

In the above post on (June 12) I predicted a quake in the Kuril Islands region and specified it was "more likely at the north-eastern end". Today (ie June 13) there was a mag 4.4 in the Kuril Islands. The co-ordinates place it in the north-eastern region of those islands so I'm okay for my time frame and location but again, it's lower than the magnitude I expected.

I suppose it's still a hit but I am concerned why I'm "picking up" on lower-mag quakes lately much more than I used to in the past. I'd almost never pick up on ones under a 5.0 except in a few regions (like west coast US)...I am puzzled by this. The reason I post expected mags is because the 'indicators I get have generally in the past indicated certain magnitudes, but now it's like I am getting these indicators with quakes a full magnitude less powerful. Any suggestions as to why??

Edit: Btw, taking my predictions in order I suppose on past results it would suggest the off-coast Oregon quake is next in line. But like I said it won't be a very big one by the feel of it.

[edit on 13-6-2008 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike

I am concerned why I'm "picking up" on lower-mag quakes lately much more than I used to in the past. I'd almost never pick up on ones under a 5.0 except in a few regions (like west coast US)...I am puzzled by this. The reason I post expected mags is because the 'indicators I get have generally in the past indicated certain magnitudes, but now it's like I am getting these indicators with quakes a full magnitude less powerful. Any suggestions as to why??

Same here, JustMike... anything under 6.0 wouldn't affect me at all, so lately I haven't even been putting up any predictions based on precursor feelings unless they're intense. And the only intense precursors I thought I had were for the Sierras, but Charlotte says the Sierra precursors can be way more intense than the EQ, for some reason.

I don't know what to make of this change-- frankly, I don't particularly want to pick up on EQs lower than 6.0 because it hurts and there are too many.

I have not asked you this yet, have I? Did you pick up on the China EQ before it happened?

I know others who did not, including me.

What do you make of this?

Earthquake prediction breakthrough close: NASA

Posted Fri Jun 6, 2008 11:37am AEST

Scientists at the United States space agency NASA say they could be on the verge of a breakthrough in their efforts to forecast earthquakes.

Researchers say some of the biggest earthquakes, such as the recent one in China, seem to be preceded by disturbances high up in the earth's atmosphere.

They think rocks which are about to break become positively charged with electricity at the earth's surface.

The electrical effect is then transferred 100 kilometres into the ionosphere, where it can be picked up by satellites.

-BBC