An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I am afraid to say but I think we are about to see something huge SOON.. I will be working on the article to explain why. But basically I see a trending upward in activity in the Xray output and this was only since a few hours ago... Here is my issue. It appears there is a huge filament stretched across the face of the sun. This next big flare could trigger that thing and that could essentially cause the CME we havent gotten yet, or it could be a double whammy of sorts. Even if that thing blows tomorrow when it is less in our line of fire that filament would be. its a rough description but you get the idea.

Ive not slept in days due to this stuff.. I am really ready to get into my bed and pass the heck out for about a century..

I have a nasty persistent headache that started yesterday and just wont clear up...not quite a full on migraine type yet, but getting there. Sleep and tea didn't help like I hoped, which is why I didn't post last night. There was a 4.5 on the Reykjanes Ridge overnight at 57 degrees, and a smaller Aleutian quake, but if this is EQ related, there is more in the works. The solar flares this week have been driving me nuts too, and have shown me the difference between the two sets of symptoms. I'm just a little wary that this series of flares, despite no CME's, will trigger something massive in a seismic sense.

Meh....just feeling fed up and a bit blue today, which really isn't like me at all. Hope you're all ok.

Cait x

Edit to add...just wanted to mention Alaska as a possible, definitive location, (Aleutians really) just in case, or somewhere on the 57th give or take a couple.

a reply to: caitlinfae

Im with you.. feel like something big is about to happen. I feel really anxious. May be nothing to it.. just a gut feeling. Idk..

Not sure where but it seems as if something big is brewing.

We wait....

a reply to: MamaJ

Yup...it's the waiting that drives me nuts. This recent process has shown me how I react to quakes and flares and the difference in the symptoms though, and there is another sunspot kicking off now, just round the rim of the sun today. I kinda feel there is a link somehow, and I'm feeling something much much bigger brewing somewhere, and I'm stuck here waiting and waiting and waiting. This solar flare pain and exhaustion is something else...give me an Alaskan 8 pointer any day compared to this. My sleep had been dreadful recently too...wide awake for hours during the night, and then hardly fit to move during the day.

Stay safe everyone...

Not feeling the regular quake symptoms,
just achy & wiped out/drained.
Was antsy the other day, but that's gone now.

Hubby not having his regular symptoms either,
except for the pressure on his shoulders.
He's dizzy & nauseous though.

Be interesting to see if it's just solar.
Smaller eq's in uncommon places in a short time span too.
The last 6.0 & 7.1 didn't cause as many symptoms as usual either!?
WOQ

Felt this one coming for at least a day & a half!

6.9
68km NE of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea
2014-11-07 03:33:57 UTC
65.1 km

WOQ

Anyone's dog acting weird today? Mine is just odd....eating fine and not sick, but hiding in the bed like someone's trying to kill him, but also wanted out for a WALK in the pouring rain this morning, when normally he won't leave the house if it's so much as drizzling. Today...he insisted, to the point where he stood outside the gate and refused to move till I took him where he wanted. My neighbour's dog is very aggressive towards her, which is totally out of character, threatening to bite, and trying to control where she goes in the house. It's just weird...thought I would mention it.

A lot of people are reporting ear ringing today on Facebook. I haven't noticed any personally, and I happen to be in pretty good spirits today. Past days I've felt kind of sluggish and today is the first day that I feel really energized.. it's interesting. Last night I had a really bad pressure headache though like a quake headache.

originally posted by: rbkruspe
A lot of people are reporting ear ringing today on Facebook. I haven't noticed any personally, and I happen to be in pretty good spirits today. Past days I've felt kind of sluggish and today is the first day that I feel really energized.. it's interesting. Last night I had a really bad pressure headache though like a quake headache.

I've had a headache on and off, but nothing serious at all. No ear rings either. I did have a very vivid dream that Aberdeen, which is the biggest city close to where I live, was hit with an earthquake strong enough to topple masonry off buildings on the main street. They're really substantial granite buildings. so it would have been a strong quake. I was trying to get to stand on Union Bridge to make sure I was far enough away from all of them to avoid being crushed.

This is what it looks like from where I was standing...Union Bridge

As far as I know, there has never been an earthquake in this part of Scotland, although friends of mine did visit the earthquake house in Comrie, Perthshire where the UK's biggest EQ was.

Has anyone noticed the U.S.G.S. site is posting earthquakes in a different format today? Instead of the usual details on the line item like this: '72km SSE of Santa Rosa, California' it's posting in this format: 'Northern California'. Just a vague locale.

If I click on the line item, the details are shown there. It looks like a new person took over posting or some computer glitch that won't pull up detailed locations. Weird

*** Edited to add that I think they changed the format for different sized EQ's ... Guess I wasn't paying attention

I've had a stinky migraine today, and it hasn't quite gone yet, even though I slept all afternoon, and am going straight back to bed now. There has been a wee eq on the Alaskan peninsula at 58.10 degrees, so maybe will watch this spot for more. It's within a degree from where I am. I was extremely anxious and panicky this morning out of the blue for no reason that I would pinpoint at all.

Hope everyone is ok...

a reply to: caitlinfae

aw, I hope you are doing better. I just thought I would check in. something keeps nagging me to keep an eye out. For what I don't know. But posting was needed.

a reply to: blujay
That might have been just a temporary glitch or the defining list was being upgraded or updated and was not available. It seems to be displaying okay again now.

Just to clarify, the initial reports of quakes are auto-logged and posted to the map/s. Seismologists often then review them as more data becomes available and will make manual adjustments as required to more precisely define magnitude, location -- epicenter and also hypocenter (surface co-ordinates and ditto but with actual depth) -- and time (usually only plus or minus a few seconds). So if there was a glitch in the software that accesses the location listings so it can display eg '72km SSE of Santa Rosa, California', then it would probably default to a much more general, regional list (like 'Northern California').

Most likely and going from what you said, they have a 'nest' of lists: greater regions eg Nth America, Sth America, the UK etc, then countries, then regions within countries, then finally more local lists which also include cities and towns. The location program gets latitude and longitude then its software tells it to search its lists and find the "best fit" location. It starts by going to the most general list that's defined by a large lat/long set of parameters, then works from there to its sub-lists. If it can't access the most precise list then it will default to the nearest best-fit list that it can use.

Sometimes the location listings can result in weird descriptions for locations. For example, in the past I saw things like "3 km from the coast of Valparaiso, Chile", which would suggest to most of us that it was in the sea floor off the Chilean coast. But the map showed it was actually on land near the coast. So there was an error in coding instructions to tell it how to describe the location.

Fortunately it seems they realized how dumb that looked! I can't recall seeing similar 'off the coast' descriptions recently. I guess they just went with distances and direction from a given town, because the map shows us if it's on land or not anyway.

a reply to: rbkruspe
I've also got that nagging feeling. And I have to admit it's becoming quite bothersome.

Besides the usual suspects for locations of larger quakes, I've got my eye on the fault off the coast from Portugal (that hasn't been hugely active since 1755) and also the fault that continues on from that and runs east into the Mediterranean and down past Sicily and has a related one that affects the Straits of Messina.

If you look at the USGS world quake map, some sections of the main fault are not drawn in because they are not sure exactly where it is. Why? Lack of data from prior events. But seeing as there's general agreement that the African plate is colliding with the European plate, then the fault is there somewhere. If you draw your own imaginary lines to fill the gaps you probably won't be far out.

Back in 2004, National Geographic reported in an article HERE that the 1755 "Lisbon Earthquake", which has been estimated as a mag 8.7 Mw, was probably a subduction event. They go on to say the evidence indicates the region there is "locked" and will likely let go again one day when the strain becomes too much.

However, they do say that the intervals between great quakes in that region may have intervals of 1,000 to 2,000 years.

All the same, I'm concerned about the region so thought it best to mention it. Using the CSZ as an example as its prior tsunamigenic quakes have been studied in some detail by Chris Goldfinger et al over the past couple of decades, the intervals between previous great quakes there off the US PNW have varied considerably, from a low of maybe one or two centuries to 1,000 years plus.

So, while an average interval is useful to know, it doesn't mean that the actual intervals will always be close to the average.

I am not saying that I believe a major quake off Portugal or within the Med basin (eg Sicily / Messina Straits) is imminent. I am only mentioning that it's become one of my main regions of focus in the past few days, but I cannot offer any physical evidence as to why. Statistically, the odds are very good that nothing major will happen in either of those two (somewhat connected) regions in the coming days or even weeks. I'm just voicing my concerns and that is all.

Re my post above, here's a map of the regions I've discussed, with my two primary locations circled:

The Straits of Messina runs between Sicily and the Italian mainland (Calabria).

Original map sourced from USGS at THIS PAGE.

originally posted by: JustMike
Statistically, the odds are very good that nothing major will happen in either of those two (somewhat connected) regions in the coming days or even weeks. I'm just voicing my concerns and that is all.

I hope everything stays quiet here, as I live in the Lisbon area, although on the other side of the river, the side that was not as much affected by the 1755 tsunami.

I think the 7.8 1969 earthquake had the epicentre in the same area of the 1755 earthquake, but things have been relatively quiet since then, with only smaller, local earthquakes.

a reply to: ArMaP
I'd also be glad if everything stays quiet where you are. But on the plus side, Lisbon was the first city to be rebuilt after a major quake where the building technology was studied in regards to quake safety. Even these days it would possibly fare better than many other very old European cities in that regard.

I'd expect not too many know it, but the whole science of seismology (and making buildings safer from quakes) really got started in your country -- as a direct result of the 1755 quake and tsunami.

originally posted by: JustMike
I'd expect not too many know it, but the whole science of seismology (and making buildings safer from quakes) really got started in your country -- as a direct result of the 1755 quake and tsunami.

Yes, they invented what is called "gaiola pombalina" (pombaline cage), a wood structure inside the building that kept it from falling. Many buildings from that time are still in use.

PS: "Pombaline" comes from the title given to the prime minister at the time of the 1755 earthquake, Marquis of Pombal.

The U.S. shake map lit up like a Christmas tree ... North Carolina and Missouri are interesting. They're in the general vicinity of the New Madrid line. Hmmmmm

I hope everyone has been feeling as well,
as their lack of being here would suppose!!!

Merry Christmas everyone!!!
WOQ