posted on Jun, 6 2008 @ 06:17 AM
Originally posted by observe50
China is still having some decent sized aftershocks I thought this would have settled down in size by now somewhat.
Unfortunately with such a major quake in an uplift-mountainous region it's not all that unusual for aftershocks to continue for several weeks or even
up to a couple of months. So I have read on some authoritative websites, at least...
I must admit I am getting an awful feeling right now and it is growing stronger. It is the feeling of sadness and foreboding that perhaps you also
know...I fortunately don't get it very often. The worst was before the Dec 26 2004 Asia quake/tsunami.
Please, I don't wish this to be taken the wrong way...but my feeling is that the Tangjiashan quake lake in China -- the biggest one, which they are
most concerned about -- could fail catastrophically within less than 3 days. By "catastrophically" I mainly mean in the technical/engineering sense,
namely that the failure will be quite rapid, impossible to stop or even control, and total. Yes, it would also be a human catastrophe in terms of
property losses, but my hope -- my sincerest and most earnest hope -- is that the Chinese authorities, who have done so much in the face of terrible
and often personal tragedy, will evacuate all the endangered downstream in time...They have evacuated 250,000 people already and perhaps another one
people will need to be moved if they see the danger growing.
This "prediction" of the dam's failure is not without basis: latest reports are that it is now seeping water... I feel that just one more major
aftershock, in the region of a 5.0 to 5.5, will be enough to make this dam fail. If there is even another quake that is not close by, but it is a
larger quake, that may also be enough.
I would be glad to be wrong on this but I fear this time the odds are very strong that there is little time left.
coming, and very soon. When this feeling arrives it suggests a major event within approximately three days.