An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

There was a magnitude 6.6 today in Vanuatu:

M6.6 - 37km W of Sola, Vanuatu 2014-01-01 16:03:30 UTC
Event Time

2014-01-01 16:03:30 UTC
2014-01-02 03:03:30 UTC+11:00 at epicenter
2014-01-01 17:03:30 UTC+01:00 system time

Location

13.873°S 167.202°E depth=196.2km (121.9mi)
Nearby Cities

37km (23mi) W of Sola, Vanuatu
183km (114mi) N of Luganville, Vanuatu
443km (275mi) NNW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu
779km (484mi) N of We, New Caledonia
918km (570mi) N of Paita, New Caledonia

From USGS

This is a fairly strong quake, but thankfully it was pretty deep at nearly 200 km. No tsunami warning (nor would we expect one for a quake like this), and I have not found any reports of injuries or damage.

This region sees events in this range from time to time and as long as they are deep, there is usually little worry for the locals.

This was the first quake in the world of mag 6.0 or bigger since Dec 18, which is a long way over the average interval.

Hubby & I both passed out on the couch trying to watch the news!
Woke up a couple of hours later & saw the 5.9 in Chile.
Which is a weird coincidence, because I made homemade chili for supper tonight!

Young cat has been wanting attention.
Now for the last 2 hours I've been craving popcorn, but I'm not hungry!
It's 0*F here right now, I don't even want to know what the wind chill is!
So some warm popcorn sounds better every minute. Gonna make some! Sorry!

Apologizing in advance for any quake that my popcorn causes!
Bwahahaha!!!!
WOQ

Hello0 to00 all ..

I caught some strong signal's coming to my equipment ..

Let's try to predict this one, i will say in next 15 hrs or next 2 days around M 7.5 ..

I have some areas N-C-S America and of course area "Ring of Fire", but let be more precise area of N Chile - S Peru ..

Long time there was no big one there and think time is come for this area ..

Especially my major concern for area of Iquique, Chile , this area is very exposed to the threat of tsunami ..

Think in close future this area and city Iquique have big possibility to be devastated from strong EQ - tsunami, hope not ..

I'm not monitoring anymore pre-EQ's signals but desire to make very precise prediction is stronger from my so I post this EQ prediction attempt anyway ) ..

All best to yo0u in New Year ..

reply to post by MariaLida


I will post one more dangerous area for time ahead ..

Area of SE of Japan ..




Earthquake Lights Finally Explained

www.abovetopsecret.com...

This area near Taiwan has picked up in activity over the past week. The most recent earthquake moments ago Mag 5.4.

If I remember correctly, wasn't it JustMike who had concerns about the Taiwan area (this would have been a while back)? Just wondering what everybody's thoughts were about this area now. I haven't studied this region, but it has piqued my curiosity.

reply to post by Olivine


Hi everyone...

Hope you're all ok. Just logging yet another tsunami dream from last night. In my dream, I watched a huge wave sweep in to the village I was standing in flooding everything to a depth of about 10 feet. I managed to escape to a higher floor, but while I was standing on the ground, I felt water soak up from underneath, maybe symbolising liquifaction? The ground was sodden anyway, maybe from rainfall, I don't know. I felt like it was in some rural part of Scotland weirdly enough, or some small coastal village, northern place, grey skies, cold climate.

Hope that's a one off dream anyway...exhausting and upsetting.

animals acting off today - little dogs especially on edge, whimpering, ears perked up and looking in directions where I see nothing...Could be the weird weather on the east coast, but noting it here anyway.

Nothing amiss to report here, no muted hearing or anything else odd for a good while now. Didn't even pick up on the Cuba 'quake yesterday (I'd say that disproves my muted hearing episodes as 'quake-related)

It still feels like "waiting for the other shoe to drop", though. It's been a while since we've had any major 7+'s, I think PM said in QW that we're statistically overdue for one by a good clip. Something tells me it's going to be a doozy when it does pop off.

reply to post by MariaLida

Thank you for the writeup, maria. Much appreciated.

So, we'll see how it goes. They are getting some smaller ones around Iquique and most of them seem a bit far from their magnitude 5.8 on Jan 7 to be directly related to it as aftershocks. But they could still be deriving from the same fault stresses. But that 5.8, being a l;ittle way inland from the coast, was about the right depth to suggest it related to subduction forces. As the plate slips under, quakes related to such forces tend to get deeper as we move futher from the "line".

reply to post by Olivine

Yes, I did talk about Taiwan as an area of concern but your memory is darned good, because that was back on Jan 14th of last year!

My concerns are twofold: while there is the offshore fault to the east, there is also one that runs up through the island, S/N. This fault is capable of producing quite major events and is has been quite some time since the last major one there.

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hello Cait,

Oh, I hate those types of dreams. I've only had very, very few quake/tsunami dreams in my life and I've logged details of a couple of them in this thread. One I was almost certain was Seattle, another was coastal but don't know where exactly, just that it had some small boats stacked on the beach in an unusual way, and another was in my pre-ATS days and turned out to be Bam in Iran (Dec 26, 2003). At least, they had their quake within a day or two of my dream and the housing type and other details all fitted. That was pretty creepy. And that quake killed more than 26,000 people.

Can you imagine losing 26,000 people in one city, in one day? Plus another 30,000 injured? Seventy percent of all homes destroyed? That is so utterly awful.

Even in my dream -- and I can see every second of it even today, over ten years later -- even in my dream it was terrifying, it was loud, we ran out down the stairs of a shaking old masonry house and it was utter chaos. I would rather never have a dream like that again.

We're in dilemma land here, aren't we? Naturally, because we are all very interested in quakes and matters related to them, our minds can sometimes work overtime and yes, we can have dreams that are only that: dreams and nothing more. But then we get the strange stuff that seems too precise, too real. The dreams where the time line holds, where things happen in sequence, where it doesn't seem like a dream at all and it's utterly terrifying. My Seattle dream was like that, just as my Bam dream was. Thankfully the Seattle one has not come to pass, but dreams like that are the ones that bother me.

reply to post by Nyiah

It might be a big one when it finally comes. Any mag seven is potentially very bad. But from my studies of past data we can go for long periods between them; the longest I recall offhand was about six months. And the next one was strong, but not awful.

Statistically, we are "overdue". But overall, the total energy release in quakes of all kinds in the past month and a half or so must be well under average, because there have been so few mag sixes as well.

Right now, I am keeping an eye on the Molucca Sea region of Indonesia and the adjacent Gulf Of Tomini. It's been a very long time since the last really big one there (IIRC it was a mag 8.1 or 8.2 back in the 1930s) but I just feel the need to note that I'm watching it.

Hi all, just checking in.

I've been thinking myself lately how 'quiet' it's been. Even the 6.5 this evening isn't much.

For those that were around a year or more ago (I'm horrible with time. Are we going on two years now?) I still have this strong feeling about Oklahoma, that's been bugging me again recently.

Other than that, I have nothing really to add to the conversation, other than I am feeling something looming too. That may just be due to the lag in quakes.

reply to post by westcoast

Hi Tara,

it's something for us to take note of when you start talking about Oklahoma. Okay, we take note of a lot of what you say, with how closely you follow Pacific North-West (PNW) events and the threads you've done on that region, but when you mention Oklahoma (which for international readers who might not know, is nowhere near the PNW), I sure take notice.

Tara, the last time you really focused on Oklahoma in a big way was back in 2011. You started mentioning it in August but you made your statements loud and clear in a post in another thread here where among other things you said:

That day (8/23) I was thinking about the odd quakes that this thread was originally about. As I have said, I feel that there is something I'm missing...the bigger picture as I like to call it. Being more open to just being in tune with things, I tried something I don't normally do. I guess you could call it meditating a little or something..but I closed my eyes and just tried to clear my thoughts of everything else but these quakes. I asked myself "What am I missing, where do I need to look?" Not really expecting anything. Then, I saw a very clear map of the states but the only state labled (boldly) was Oklahoma. I then thought/heard "You need to watch Oklahoma".

So there you have it. That is it. Nothing fancy. I have simply repeated what I heard: "You need to watch Oklahoma"

I was a little surprised by it because it wasn't even the area I was wondering about...(ie, Virginia, NY, Co) But this image and instruction was SO strong that I have been compelled to listen to it and share it.

You made that post on Nov 5th, 2011, at 9.44 pm, my time. (Nov 5th 3.44 pm in OK)

On Nov 6th, 2011, at 4.53 am (my time -- 10.53 pm on Nov 5 in OK), Oklahoma had the largest quake ever recorded in that state's history -- a magnitude 5.6. This can be confirm by anyone from the USGS page for Oklahoma Earthquake Information and the link within it under the "Notable earthquakes" list.

So, less than seven hours after you made the above-quoted post, OK had their largest-ever quake. Locally, it was literally on the same day.

This is one reason we need to keep track of these things. I've logged similar situations in this thread, where I "see" a map with a region clearly indicated, and sometimes even the precise location and quake magnitude. Thankfully (?!) I don't get those very often but when I do, they seem more likely to pan out than not. So, I post them. And as we have other members who "see" (or perceive) things in similar ways, it's worth wondering about it.

Skeptics might argue that even a broken clock is right twice a day. True. But just a little research will show that Oklahoma is not a state well-known for quakes. Far from it! It's certainly not a US state that anyone would choose if they wanted to try and score a "hit" on a prediction. And Westcoast wasn't even looking at it as a prediction per se. She just felt the need to tell us what she "saw". And I understand that.

So, for any skeptics reading, please note that we're not a bunch of crazies running around with signs saying The End is Nigh. There are other threads on this site, very frequently, that are full-on gloom and doom -- but that's not what we're about. We're looking at the hows and whys of quakes, and ditto the possible methods of predicting them. That's quite enough to be going on with.

I only come around ATS when I start to get that feeling. I've been lurking for several days now, wondering if anyone else could feel the pressure mounting. I'm on the Gulf Coast. Despite this, driving around the that past couple of days, I felt like I did when I was on a mountain road in Estes Park. My head and ears are undergoing serious, painful pressure changes. Also, lots of ringing. I have moments of dizziness. My dog has been acting really bizarre, trying to get my attention about something, nothing placates him. People are on edge everywhere I go. I've been having night terrors the past several nights. I get these really brief cold and hot flashes. There have been absolutely no changes in my routine, circumstances, diet, etc. I know what a bug feels like. I know what emotional imbalance feels like. This sensitivity thing that happens to me; it's like nothing else I experience.

I had a vivid dream a few nights ago. A big screen television was showing a news program discussing an impending disaster. Two blue arrows were pointing at the Gulf Coast. I never worry about my area. My geological interests have been focused on other areas for a long time now. I tried to not concern myself with it, but then we started getting local reports of mysterious loud booms last night. I started investigating and came across maps where people are plotting the booms along with earthquake activity. There seems to have been a significant uptick of the booming sounds in the last few weeks, especially the last few days. Up Texas, though the Midwest and Gulf Coast, all the way up the East Coast. I don't know what any of this means. People are making predictions all over the internet, of course. Some think it's coming from the sky, meteors and such. Many think its going to be a Midwest earthquake. I gave up on guessing. Lately, nature has been going beyond my level of comprehension. Not much would surprise me at this point. Anyway, I just know that there is an energy in the atmosphere that is shifting and it's having a very profound effect on me. I feel something coming. The amount of pressure that's going on, on all levels, is bound to give. It feels like we're arriving at that point.

reply to post by thinkingthing


I'm reading your post with huge interest...please keep us posted on how you feel. To me it seems perfectly rational...you know what you're feeling. My dad, my brother and his family all live in or near Galveston, so this made me sit up and take notice. I'm kinda worried that I was seeing what you're seeing, and the family connection is why I experienced it.

I'm still anxious, exhausted, looking for some kind of explanation, watching my diet so carefully. I have an upcoming appointment with a cardiologist, just to make sure there is nothing...they think it's nothing, but we have to make sure. I'm just wound up on a few levels, and my dog is being a whingy little git today...full of insane amounts of energy, and eating everything in sight. No walk is too much for him.

Stay safe everyone.

Cait xxx

Interesting earthquake in L.A today ..

It's very interesting EQ for me because in one hour later i catch some strong pre-eartqueke signal here at my backyard(EU), so I want to post that info anyway ..

EM signals here appears for EQ's worldwide and they are very hard to separate them for certain areas so can happen anywhere ..

Also that signal is reordered but we will see is stronger will come here, guess signal was around M 6.5 ..

Hope nothing will come but i like to post that info anyway ..



2014-01-15 09:35:19.07hr 37min ago 34.14 N 117.45 W 5 4.4 GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.

www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by caitlinfae


I saw news stories reporting booming sounds coming from Galveston sometime this past week. Also, in Houston and near Conroe. I couldn't find the links with a quick search. They are somewhere in a massive thread on another website. I'll post a link below, if you feel like doing some searching. Anyway, this morning I had a reprieve. I actually felt really clear and energetic for a little while. This was the first break in the symptoms since I posted. As the day wore on the painful pressure came back with a vengeance. As of right now, the physical symptoms are worse than they have ever been. I feel like I have motion sickness. I'm anxious and on edge. My dog is still trying to tell me something.

By most accounts, there is little reason to believe that anything big is about to happen here on the Gulf Coast. But the weirdness of how I've been feeling added to the weirdness I'm seeing all over the news and on various message boards was too much for me. I went shopping today and stocked up on the things I'll need for a possible SHTF scenario. I haven't felt the need to prep like this in like two or three years. Hopefully, and most likely, I'm just picking up on atmospheric or energetic changes that don't necessarily mean impending doom. But I have to pay attention to my instincts and prepare accordingly. My spidey sense is going haywire right now. Be safe, everyone.

Booming sounds thread on GLP

reply to post by thinkingthing


Thank you for the update. I didn't follow the link for GLP as they seem to ban everyone automatically, and I can't be bothered joining them, but I will do a search online and see what I can find. Thank you for the information and I'm sorry to hear that your symptoms have returned...it's very concerning.

Wow! Nobody has checked in for nearly two weeks!
I hope it's because everybody has been feeling 'mahvalous'!!!

Just checking in because hubby & I are full of energy,
& feeling great, even though we have a below 0 wind chill again today!
If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow on Sunday,
he'll probably be run out of town!!!

Anyway...a rush of energy is usually one of my signs!
Just thought I'd log it, just in case!
And it's so nice to be able to report a good sign for a change,
instead of having cheese with my whine!
Or should I say popcorn with my whine!!!
WOQ