An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by caitlinfae


Hi!
Didn't really think I was feeling anything quake related.
Wiped out from doing too much the last week,
& then had two of the grandkids here, one stayed overnight.
So I figured everything I was feeling was just from overdoing it.

But young cat was trilling & snuggly a little while ago.
And now I'm getting my 'sleeping pill' feeling,
where I can hardly keep from falling asleep, even sitting at the computer!
So I guess we'll see what happens in the next few hours!

That's funny that you would say that about the USGS map!
I thought it looked awfully bare when I looked at it too!

Hope you feel better soon!
WOQ

Just saw this new thread.
New Madrid - Quake watch:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Here's is an interesting link!
Earthquake prediction monitor network:

quakepredictor.net...

WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Hello....

I now understand the sleeping pill thing you're talking about...that's how i felt last Tuesday. I just could not stay awake. Hasn't happened again, so maybe I was just having a bad day. Yesterday was terrible though. Yet another doc appointment, another "we can't find anything wrong with you" conversation. Just to check, or maybe humour me, I have to go for another ECG and then wear a 24 hour heart monitor. The pain isn't so bad today, but anxiety is rising. It could well be connected to a weather system that's going to hit us tonight for 2 days of 80-90 mile an hour winds and a bit of snow, but hey...who knows.

Weird also that you've mentioned New Madrid. I saw a post in the quake thread a few days ago about a 2.5 almost right in New Madrid itself, and a little alarm went off in the back of my head. I didn't say anything here as I'm sure there are little quakes up and down that fault all the time, but there was something that made me very uncomfortable. I hope this isn't flagging up the "unprecedented natural disaster" we've been led to expect.

Stay safe and warm everyone.

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi!
I had to wear one of those monitors a few years ago!
Got upset when someone was careless & let the cat get out!
Spiked that graph through the roof! Lol!

Two hours after I posted last night, Chile had a 5.5.
Usually the sleepy thing or sooo hungry thing means something bigger,
but maybe because it was a little closer this time?

The New Madrid is interesting because lately the quakes seem to be
mostly following two almost parallel lines. And today I saw this,
up to 40 beached pilot whales in Florida:

news.msn.com...

Have to watch & see if it ties into anything close by!
Good luck with your tests!
WOQ

Just saw a 5.8 in Fiji that I didn't notice before too!

probably nothing, but my cat is going bananas tonight, caterwauling at my "California wall" - I have pictures on it from when I lived in CA (I'm not there now). May be nothing, but then again....

reply to post by ns9504


Hi!
Do you mind giving us an idea of your location?
I just wondered if your cat is picking up on something local?
WOQ

Hubby & oldest daughter both have their 'cranky pants' on tonight!
I didn't even bother asking him if he had any quake symptoms!

The rescue cats were all clingy when I fed them.
The oldest male always turns over on his back for a belly rub,
but tonight when I was petting him he swiped & scratched me!!!???

Young cat is trilling & rubbing up against my legs.
Something is definitely in the wind!
I'd be very surprised if there is not at least a six by tomorrow morning!
WOQ

wasobservingquietly
reply to post by ns9504

 

Hi!
Do you mind giving us an idea of your location?
I just wondered if your cat is picking up on something local?
WOQ

Its possibly more local, but he has different tells for that. I'm still thinking California. The wall in on the south side of my house, maybe "to our south"? Interpreting the signs is always the hardest :-)

We're in northeastern US

reply to post by ns9504


We're northeast too.
There were some small ones in NY, PA, OH & VA.
But a few were on the 5th & the last one listed was on the 6th!
That's the part that's so frustrating!
Definite signs/symptoms, but nothing shows up!

Who knows what we're all feeling/sensing that we aren't even aware of yet!
Some of us do seem to be bothered by solar flares too!
So much to try & make sense of!
WOQ

Hi all,

first of all I'd just like to link to a thread a member has posted over in the dream and predictions forum: Not a joke - dreamt 9.5 and tsunami Japan May 4 2014.

Clearly, just from the stats of average occurrence for mag 8-plus quakes (89 since 1900, so a bit under 1 per annum), the likelihood of the above event on the given date is very low indeed. And that's just for mag 8s or bigger. If we consider mag 9-plus events, they are thankfully much rarer. Since 1900, there have been five which USGS has logged as mag 9.0 or bigger: Mag 9.0 in Kamchatka (1952), Mag 9.5 in Chile (1960), Mag 9.2 in Alaska (1964), Mag 9.1 in Sumatra (2004), and Mag 9.0 in Japan (2011). (None were recorded between 1900 and the 1952 event.) [Source on USGS: Magnitude 8 and Greater Earthquakes Since 1900.]

That being said, I have respect for anyone who's willing to put their predictions on this site. Invariably they catch some flack -- even in the dreams and predictions forum, which is set up for people to post anything related to those subjects. So, I've logged the thread here just on the very slim chance that something might come of it.

Moving along:
WOQ: yes, the USGS quake map did look rather sparsely populated a few days back. But after some years of watching it I've noticed it has times like that occasionally. Back around the 6th of last month it was even quieter looking than just a few days ago. I don't think it has to mean anything especially -- though naturally, I'm not certain of that. My own feeling is that it's like so many things in nature where the movement and transformation of energy is concerned (and that's what quakes are all about, after all). There's an "average" or mean point if we plot things on a graph over a longer period, but meanwhile things swing up and down. Action and reaction, times of quiet when things are more-or-less in temporary balance, then times of greater activity when the re-balancing has to happen again.

Thanks for the link to the quakepredictor site. It looks very interesting and I'll have to go through it and see how much they say about their methods and what kind of track record they have, if any.

Also for WOQ, Cait, Ns and others in reference to the NMSZ, there is some concurrance among the geologists, seismologists and others who study it that even the quakes we see these days may be just aftershocks of the previous events from just over 200 years ago. I find that argument a little too convenient, to be honest -- and that goes for many situations where there are smaller events decades or more after a larger one, but it's a technical point of view, really. But allowing they are experts and I'm not, okay: if they are aftershocks, why does it seem that they are increasing in frequency in some regions around the NMSZ? One would expect the opposite to be happening over time.

Anyway, must go to lunch. Catch you later.

Oh, wait: one final note. There was an odd quake in the ocean around half-way along a line between soCal and Hawaii a little over a week ago. Not big, mid-4 range. But I checked via a search of the NEIC database and there hadn't been a similar sized event in that region or within about 500 miles of it in the past 40 years. I found that interesting.

reply to post by JustMike


Thanks for linking that thread. It's always interesting to hear others dreams and how they believe their dreams are prophetic. I do believe some people have that gift. I also believe others don't have it, yet think they do. We will see if anything happens to Japan in May.

In regards to the New Madrid, I have to say activity has been high this year... more so it seems than last three years excluding the Arkansas swarm which seems to have been via fracking. Since they stopped, activity there has been low. Maybe it's just me... but something feels off.

I also want to add here that I feel as though a mag 6 plus will be coming to the world sooner than later... within the next 24 hours. It seems as though when we have a lot of 4's coming in there is a release of a much larger scale of pressure.

We will see.

reply to post by MamaJ

Hi, Mama,

I'll reply to both of your posts together. :0)

The NMSZ is one of the strange ones, really. There aren't many mid-continental locations that are not (apparently) on a major plate boundary where quakes of around magnitude 8 occur. But then, plate theory is not supposed to be perfect or (pun) set in stone. But with the NMSZ, the problem is partly that we still know relatively little about it. They can dig around and review things from a geological perspective, but the full complexities of the mechanisms that led to the huge quakes there in 1811/12 are still not well understood.

In respect of fracking, there is the argument that they only operate at relatively shallow depths compared to the deeper zones where most bigger quakes occur, and that the smaller quakes, even if very shallow, are not any serious threat. (Although pollution of the water table in some places is acknowledged.) The assertion seems to be that the various fracking chemicals just don't go down deep enough to "lubricate" or otherwise disturb deeper faults, but the fact is, we can't really be sure about that. We do know that not everything they pump down comes back up, and that means either it's still within the layers it was pumped into, or it went elsewhere. Could some of it percolate deeper? Perhaps.

Sadly, it might be a long time before we find out the truth, if we ever do. And what might happen in one location could be entirely different a little further away.

I just don't like the idea of messing around with nature's delicate balancing act. It might have taken millennia for some substrata regions to come into balance, but removing oil and gas from those strata by fracturing layers of rock could be likened to undermining the foundations of a home. Sooner or later, it will go out of balance and things start moving to restore the balance.

That's the worry.

Re the mag six quake you mentioned: it's not unlikely. We average one every three days or so and it's been at least a week since the last one. The biggest lately was a mag 5.9 in Kuril'sk on Dec 8th. Trouble is, averages are just that. I recall when I was reviewing the long-term history of mag 7 or bigger events. Though they happen along around 18 times per year on average, there were well-over-average intervals on occasion, the longest being six months.

But having said all that, I appreciate your observation. Wouldn't surprise me if you are right. Let's just hope it's in a place where there are few people.

Just had one of my big bad episodes. Still having really. They screaming crying, heart palpitations kind.
Been feeling off all day. Hubs has too. Then whammy, hit between the eyes with an empathy attack. Only oddities were a sense of crushing weight, followed by a sense of being tossed up and falling down. Don't know exactly what that was. Could speculate but won't. Giving an update just in case.
Love and light

reply to post by amarenell


Well ok...I'm a bit freaked. I've been trying to place how I'm feeling the last couple of days and it just occurred to me that it's a feeling of pressure, like being squeezed in a vice, or carrying a lot of weight...horrible sensation and there have been a few loud ear rings along with it. I have the usual aches and pains, but this is different, like I suddenly weigh 500lbs. It's taking me ages to get moving easily in the mornings. As usual, no location clues.

caitlinfae
reply to post by amarenell

 

Well ok...I'm a bit freaked. I've been trying to place how I'm feeling the last couple of days and it just occurred to me that it's a feeling of pressure, like being squeezed in a vice, or carrying a lot of weight...horrible sensation and there have been a few loud ear rings along with it. I have the usual aches and pains, but this is different, like I suddenly weigh 500lbs. It's taking me ages to get moving easily in the mornings. As usual, no location clues.

Just want to chime in here and add my Yes to pressure. Last Saturday night (Dec 7), had a dream I was being crushed. I wasn't under buildings, but it was that feeling of claustrophbia and being trapped and smushed under heavy pressure. In the dream I was doing every thing I could to push "it" off my torso. The whole dream happened in a basement and I was standing.

Headache and pressure today, but only on my left side. Could mean anything really. We are expecting the big snow storm on the east coast...Anyway, just adding my $0.02

Yeeep!!!
Hubby said he had a rough day at work today.

The heaviness pressing down on his shoulders,
& the hard to breath feeling like he's being squeezed up against a wall.
The arrow through the left pec feeling too!

I'm a little antsy, but I think that's having too much to do, & no time to do it!
Plus youngest son just installed the new Windows for us,
& brought a wireless keyboard & mouse for us to try out!
More stuff to get used to!

Love the nice contrast & speed of the keys on this one.
Mouse is a little stiff though! Makes playing timed games harder!

Getting a little old to be changing Windows so often!!!
Just when the old brain finally gets used to one,
they come out with an update! Bah humbug!!! Lol!
Everything looks different again!
The e-mail format has really changed!
It's like waking up in the morning & not knowing where you are exactly!!!

Noticed some eq 'twinning' today. And it's pretty quiet overall.
So probably about time for something!
We're supposed to get 5-10 inches of snow tonight & tomorrow,
depending on which channel we watch!
Hope nothing unusual ever happens this time of year!
WOQ

Yeah, I have felt rough myself. The 11th was when it started mostly. I had some serious anxiety and nerves going on. My knees are all sore too, I havent felt this kinda knee pain since early 2012. Was a bit nauseated yesterday and the day before. mostly im sore though.

reply to post by ns9504

That's a pretty scary sort of dream to have. In fact, I've had a few along the same lines myself over the years and it's an awful feeling. It's one of the reasons I'd be glad to see any advances in predicting earthquakes because of what happens when buildings collapse. Just so horrible and terrifying for the people involved.

To other points. It's four days since my last post when I observed that it had been over a week since a magnitude 6 or bigger quake had happened anywhere in the world. So now it's 11 days -- plus. I'll have to search a database to see exactly when the last one was.

ETA: I just searched the USGS SEARCH database for quakes of mag 6 or bigger since Dec 1st and got two:

2 earthquakes in map area

6.0 69km SE of Sinabang, Indonesia 2013-12-01 07:29:57 UTC+01:00 11.2 km
6.4 Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia 2013-12-01 02:24:13 UTC+01:00 10.0 km

(Note: "map area" was the whole world. You can define a region but I left it open, so it looks everywhere.)

No suprise with the region as they get plenty around that size. But there we are: it's been fourteen days since those two events, which were both on Dec 01 (UTC). That's a fair break. Not the longest I can recall, though. I'm sure I've seen around three weeks in the past, but still -- a fair while. (End ETA.)

But seeing as the "average" between mag 6 quakes is around three days and it's now over four times that since the last one, the almost gut-instinct reaction is to feel that there is therefore going to be a major one, to "make up for" the relative lack of recent activity, as it were. But in reality, it doesn't have to be like that at all. Yes, it's likely there will be another mag 6 or bigger quake before too long but from long observation of these things, I can tell you all that we can't just assume something big has to be coming up soon. Sometimes it goes that way, other times it doesn't.

I believe our planet's energy interactions are much more complex than any of us can even imagine, let alone begin to fully comprehend. I do feel that something like the "butterfly in Beijing" effect may form part of it all, just as it is to some degree with the way our weather manifests itself. I said a long time ago in this thread that I see quake behaviour as something like the weather: a small change in one place could have a major effect elsewhere, but the link between the two could be almost impossible to directly discern.

As we all know, "absence of evidence is not evidence of absence" and in the field of study as huge and complex as tectonics, seismology, geology and everything else related to how our planet physically transforms and moves energy, there may be a lot that is absent from our perspective.

Meanwhile, there is the human side and like many of you, I feel a growing concern at this period of relative quiescence. As I said, it doesn't have to mean anything bad, but our own feelings sometimes don't react well to reasoned thinking and pragmatism and I'm in the same boat as everyone else.

So, we wait. And hope for the best.

Just as a side note, "India" has been popping up for me in various ways in the past several days. That's bothersome, but I can't put a finger on any particular region. Frankly I'm more concerned about the subduction zone just off the coast of Pakistan but that's for practical reasons, going back to the quake they had inland from there that also was linked to the "mud island" that formed just off the coast from Gwadar (Baluchistan) at the same time. That indicated some possible instability in the subduction zone -- well, to me it did, anyway -- and hence my concerns. But India? It has some places with potential but I cannot nail it down.

Just in relation to what I said at the end of my post above, here's the Pakistan/India region I'm talking about:
(Sourced from USGS at their main quake map page HERE

The red lines shown on the map are "plate boundaries", as they put it on their site there. Now, notice the region I've indicated with the black lines and the "?". Even if you zoom in closer, there is nothing there. No red line, I mean! Basically it seems that although it's reasonable to assume there is a boundary somewhere in there, they aren't all that sure where it is and exactly what type it is. After all, if they were they'd draw it in.

Some info: the horizontal red line to the left just offshore from Pakistan is a known subduction zone boundary and in the past, there have been quakes in the magnitude 8 range there and even tsunamis from them. But in that noted area to its east, apparently the type of boundary (and fault system) is still conjectural.

So, I wonder. Because a larger event in the "mystery" region could affect both the Pakistani and Indian coastal regions.

I need to do more research on this. But in the meantime if anyone has any studies that specifically address that region I'd be very interested in links to them.