An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Bad vibes building all week.

reply to post by Cherryontop


Any clues about specific details? I had a flash of something really major today, but not sure what...it was a weird thing, there and gone in a second, but a really serious event soon. My severe symptoms from last week have gone, but I'm still left with bad pains in my arms and hands.

reply to post by caitlinfae



Horrible anxiety, extreme dizziness. I feel like I am on a boat rocking and rolling up and down. I never get a sense of location and my "symptoms" don't generally relate to size/mag of a quake but more with quakes that cause mass casualties, large losses of life. It's not letting up though and it typically wont until whatever it is, happens. Sorry, I can't be more specific which is why I don't post a lot here.

Wow, just had something new happen!
Was playing a game online with a friend of mine...
and my vision started going wonky!

I was seeing bright flashes & couldn't focus right!
There were blank spots too.
I thought it was my right eye, but when I closed one at a time,
things were still flashing! I was afraid it was a stroke or something!

Went & looked, Fiji just had a 6.5 about 10 minutes ago!
The eyes are better but now I'm getting a headache!
I'm lucky, I very seldom get headaches!
So, 2 new symptoms tonight, if they are even quake related???

Why would it be so different?
Jeepers, now I'm getting dizzy, even sitting down!
And queasy is starting too! That's new too!
Good thing hubby is asleep!

Come to think of it, young cat was acting funny earlier,
but I was busy & didn't pay attention.
There were some higher 5's earlier & some 3's & 4's
in places that aren't real common.

I hope it was just the one in Fiji & not something bigger in the works!
WOQ

Man, that was a weird way to wake up. And I don't even remember the dream, so fat chance verifying if it was tied to the dream or not. I swear the bed shook/rocked gently, I'd swear it. I'd swear it was what woke me up, and it wasn't from any vehicles passing by (we'd hear it if that was the case) I'd have blamed cats under the bed moving around, but it's blocked off by boxes, so no chance for them to get in there, unless one of them is DS9's Odo shapeshifting through small gaps.

It was unsettling enough for me to immediately turn on GEE to watch.

Speaking of GEE, an interesting thing I noticed on GEE not related to this: the Inchon, S. Korea seismo is finally working again. Wasn't NK threatening to test nukes again recently?


Edit: I see it's not just me with the weird feeling/unsettled feeling since last night. The things that make you say hmm...

Hmmm...there is some weird stuff going on, right enough. Hope you're all feeling a wee bit better, maybe after coffee and breakfast, or something to settle the nausea, WOQ...I'm a big fan of peppermint tea personally.

This is weird too...I'm in a very good mood this morning, despite the pain, and the stress of moving house soon, and whether or not we will actually have a bridge that we can drive over to move house...seriously, it's that bad. The nightmares I had earlier in the week have gone, the sun is out here even though it's cold, and my mood is happy. Not that I'm a miserable person by any means, but relentless pain and unexplained weird symptoms sometimes make me a bit crazy. But....even this on it's own is making me suspicious (it's a conspiracy site...everything is suspicious!) and I feel like pressure has gone from something or somewhere, or is in the process of shifting.

Hope you all have a lovely weekend.

OK, I'll say it.
I hope this new activity at Yellowstone is not what we are all picking up on.

So, wasn't planning to post, but the wine made me.

Past few nights, I have had... hard dreams. I don't know if that makes sense to anyone. They aren't nightmares, per se, more like intensely difficult to my actual physical self, and stressful to sleep through.

I don't remember any but the last one from last night. I was somewhere doing something (yes that ubiquitous something ) when I felt a boom-pop-bang and asked "What the bleep was that?" I heard. Krakatoa. I then asked, "What the ever-loving bleep? I thought it was extinct, done for, already had been."
No answer. I then project myself to the islands around there with my mom, mom-in-law, aunt and uncle, and it is a tourist location. We drove around town, popping in and out of churches, driving a golf cart, and ended up eating at a Mcallisters. Ergo, it had not gone boom.

Of course, I woke up and had to search Krakatoa, and it is not a dormant and/or extinct volcano, and I had no idea the scope of damage its eruption had caused. And I couldn't find any touristy-like place in the surrounding areas.

So, does this mean. I am predicting the power of Krakatoa to be unleashed on the world? No. Not at all. Do I think some other volcano might be getting geared up? I hope to h-e-double-hockey-sticks not.

I don't know what it means, but I thought I would share it since I am not having any earthquake symptoms, yet still feeling antsy.

Love y'all!

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I hope you went and got your symptoms checked if it didn't go away immediately. Those can be signs of something dangerous.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


This happens to me, last year it happened quite frequently, but it hasn't happened but only once this year...
Scintillating scotoma
en.wikipedia.org...

on topic, my cats have been acting weird this evening... I now reside on Johnston City, Illinois. They all seem to be wanting to be somewhere high, like atop the closet or fridge. Earthquakes, volcanoes, wierd weather and comets, oh my! I find it hard to sleep nowadays for all the excitement

reply to post by Cherryontop


Damn...was trying so hard not to look at that, or even acknowledge it. But yeah...I guess it might be. Just awake after a terrible night's sleep...restless for hours, still in a lot of pain in my arms and hands, nightmares, anxiety, pain in my back and legs this morning too. Hope you're all feeling a bit better. Has anyone looked at solar activity recently? I'm off to check now....

reply to post by caitlinfae


Hi!
Thanks, I would have tried that, I actually have some here,
but the symptoms didn't last very long thank goodness!
Only maybe about 10 or 15 minutes.
I would think at my age, there wouldn't be any symptom, that I hadn't experienced.
Except the one before the kill shot! Ha, ha!

It was weird because we have five kids
& I never had a day of morning sickness...ever!
It took me by surprise that's for sure! Lol!

Hope everything goes smoothly for you!
WOQ

reply to post by westcoast


Hi!
Yeah, that's what kind of freaked me out!
It was the vision first. Completely new thing!
Stroke came to mind...but no other symptoms, not even eq ones!
So I was trying to remember the symptoms of a detached retina!

Then the dizziness & nausea started!
That's when I start thinking, oh, oh!
But then the logical side of my brain kicks in,
& I tell myself the same thing I would tell hubby...
...check for quakes! Lol!

So when I saw the 6.5, I figured...but I was still being cautious.
If it hadn't gone away as soon as it did,
I would have at least woken hubby up to keep an eye on me!

These quake symptoms just get curiouser & curiouser! Ha, ha!
WOQ

reply to post by berkeleygal


Wow, thanks for that!
The kind without migraines sure sounds like it!
Luckily, I hardly ever even have headaches, thank goodness!
Is there any relation to quakes with it for you?

I did overdo things yesterday, & was running on only 3 hours of sleep,
so I thought that could have something to do with it too!
I guess I'll have to wait & see if it ever happens again!
More puzzle pieces for the big picture! Lol!
WOQ

reply to post by Nyiah


Hi!
The whole bed thing IS weird, because it's happened to me too!
The first time it happened I just figured the cat jumped up on the bed.
Waited for him to get in my face...nothing!
Sat up, looked around...no cat! Figured he left already, or I imagined it.

A couple of times it woke me up, but I second guessed myself.
Figured I just dreamt it! I do sometimes dream I'm falling, & jar myself awake!
But a couple of times I have felt it when I was wide awake!
Once it happened three times within a few minutes even.

The bedroom is on the second floor, so it would take a lot to do it!
Twice, the same spot on the bedroom wall, where it meets the ceiling,
has made a huge cracking sound! The last time the cat was sleeping on the bed.
We both jumped a mile! He stared at the wall for quite a while!

We've heard the Seneca Guns here a few times too.
The last time was on Thanksgiving last year.
It shook the house & rattled the windows!
Before we only heard it, that was the first time we felt it too!

I don't know about the bed jerking/vibrating, if that's related?
Didn't hear any booms when it happened so far.
I always look at the clock to see if I can tie the booms or jerking to any quakes.
But so far, nothing has matches up!
Just my luck...we probably live on a fault line that's becoming active!!!

Something is definitely going on tonight!
I'm so 'chatty', all kinds of energy, ears ringing,
wide awake when I should be sleeping...
and starving, can't get full!!!
Not a good sign!
WOQ

I think this could be what we were anticipating. About 200 miles from the Falklands:

M7.0 - South Atlantic Ocean 2013-11-25 06:27:33 UTC

53.881°S 54.882°W depth=10.0km (6.2mi)

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I bet we picked up on the previous 7 down around that area, too.

My oldest son, 21, and daughter who is 15 now, both were with me early for breakfast this morning. An ear ring started in my right ear, fairly long. I never visually re act when I get one, as they are fairly frequent, especially lately. But I noticed immediately my daughter rubbing her right ear. About a minute passes, becoming one of the longer ear ringing I have had this year.

Suddenly, the loudest ear ringing I have ever heard starts in my left ear. AND, both my kids grab their ears at the same time. Lasted about ten seconds, then stopped. I simply said that was weird, but my son then told me basically exactly what I heard the whole time, and my daughter said the same thing happened.

My cat is also acting very clingy this morning.

Just wanted to get this down and recorded.

Peace and love to all

Just logging in to report some stuff. I'm absolutely wiped out today, yesterday wasn't as bad, but not great either. I'm just done...exhausted to the point where I just want to sleep, which is not typical of me at all. Weird pains in my hands and arms, in between my ribs and sometimes at the back of my head. I don't even know if what I'm feeling is real at all, or if it's any use to anyone except me, but I like to have a record somewhere of dates and times, so I'm sorry if it's not eq related. I think it's the shift in my mood that's bothering me the most...I'm just totally sick of being in pain that I can do nothing about...nothing helps, I can't pin down the source, I'm just sick of it, and want it to stop. The day I posted last week about severe symptoms, November 15th, there was major solar activity, and we've had a week of volcanic uptick and weird earthquakes since.

Solar activity

That's about the only correlation I can find anywhere with what I'm feeling.

Hi everyone,

I haven't posted lately because of the need to deal with various issues IRL here -- flu, then work! (So, nothing drastic.) Also, because I couldn't perceive anything much happening quake-wise. However, now I feel we might have something major coming up. Problem is, I can't figure where. Not even any firm regional indicators.

There are the usual suspects, like the west coastal Sth American region, Indonesia and the nearby island groups in that part of the Ring of Fire and of course the Kamchatkas, all of which have had quakes in the mag 8-plus range in the not-too-distant past, but I think we might need to look for possible indicators in other places.

The following regions I'm about to mention are not for prediction. As noted above, I can't pin this down. They're just observations:
Turkey: had a couple of very bad quakes in the last few years, the worst being the one in Van in 2011. However, Istanbul itself has gone a good while without anything major and the faults there are capable of producing very powerful events, including regional tsunamis.

Southern Italy, beneath the Mediterranean Sea: there is a significant fault line there and the last very big quake it generated is commonly known as the 1908 Messina earthquake. Its estimated mag 7.1 (Mw) event caused major destruction in the nearby regions and also triggered a tsunami that came ashore up to almost 40 ft high in places. (Yes, nearly 40 feet. About 12 metres.) This event was considered to be the deadliest single-day natural disaster in European history.

Pacific NW, USA into BC, Canada: nearly everyone reading this knows about this one. The Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) running along the coast there is capable of producing a quake far more powerful than the San Andreas one that destroyed San Francisco in 1906. Many people expect "the big one" will be the next California quake, and they may well be right -- but sooner or later the CSZ will let go again. You'd be hard pushed to find any expert study that denies this.

However, with luck the CSZ will wait a good while yet but geologically, it is "in the zone" for another major movement -- meaning that allowing for the variations in time between big events, another one could happen any time. The problem is that according to the geological evidence, especially from deposits left by the previous huge quakes' tsunamis (called "turbidites"), the times between events have varied a great deal, from maybe a century or so up to around 1,000 years. So, when geologists say the next event is "imminent" (and some use exactly that term), they do not mean it's going to happen any day now. They mean that based upon the regional seismic history, it could.

And, as I've said several times in this thread already, regional preparedness for the eventual (likely) PNW mag 9.0-plus and its accompanying tsunami(s) is nowhere near as good as it could be or should be. Nothing approaching the broad-based Japanese model of quake and tsunami awareness and defenses has been implemented; it is undeniable that their huge anti-tsunami walls alone helped to save lives. Yes, many of those 30-foot-plus walls got overtopped and destroyed, but they gave many people time to escape and survive.

Japan: so, let's look at this nation. Japan has numerous significant earthquake regions, mostly along its eastern coast. The Tōhoku quake in March 2011 was something of a surprise for many experts as they were expecting the next major event further south, with the Tōkai region (closer to Tokyo) high on the list of likely places. Large Tōkai region quakes (mag 8 Mw or bigger) occur roughly every 100 to 150 years and the last one there of that scale was in 1854. Prior to that, they were recorded in 1707 (147 years prior), 1605 (102 years prior) and 1498 (107 years earlier). It's now been 159 years since the 1854 event.

Purely on the basis of those intervals we can see why many experts have serious concerns about the Tōkai region. However, trying to predict these events is never that simple. We can look back at the previous four Tōkai events over more than half a millennium, but we are only really observing a virtual eyeblink of time from the planet's perspective. So, even if it is another few decades or so before the next Tōkai event, it still won't affect the long-term average very much. But just like Cascadia, the Tōkai region is now "in the zone".


I'd really appreciate it if anyone wishes to voice their own concerns or observations. We're not in the "doom and gloom" business -- there are plenty of threads for that -- I simply see part of our task as keeping tabs on what might be in the offing. The more we know about the very fundamental realities of what is and isn't likely, the better.

So I'll leave it with you and look forward to whatever you might want to add.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi Mike, and thank you for such a precise post...very informative. I'm afraid I don't have anything to add, and my technical knowledge is fairly non existent, but I'm reading and appreciating. And watching.

That's kinda how I feel this morning...like I'm watching. I feel really weird, and is it just me, or is the USGS quake map unusually quiet? I've been anxious since last night, and have terrible pain in my arms this morning. Yet another doc appointment later, just to investigate. Again.

How is everyone else feeling?