An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

reply to post by SCGrits


Glad someone is mentioning the Nevada swarm as it has not been discussed on ATS as far as I am aware.

I have no idea about the techie stuff either. lol I would love to hear some one speak on behalf of it... but not sure we know enough about EQ's to even discuss it properly, ya know? Is it a precursor to something bigger? We just don't know.....

The US is definitely active right now... maybe its the new moon... Have no idea, but Im unsettled as of right now.

The New Madrid is close to me.... I live in TN. Hopefully this activity settles down!!!

Originally posted by Olivine
I just read two interesting news reports concerning animals and earthquakes, and thought I would post them in here, just in case.
The credit for these links goes to member twistedroots in this post found in the Predictions & Prophecies thread.

On 4 March 2011, there was an article found in The Telegraph describing oarfish washing ashore and being caught in nets in recent weeks, in Japan. Note the date; weeks before the devestating mag 9, but all on the west coast of the island of Honshu. Were they driven away from the east coast?

These fish normally live at depth in the oceans. They are known in Japanese folklore as the Messenger from the Sea God's Palace, and their appearance is said to portend earthquakes.

Now skip to the present. Last Friday, 12 October 2012, an oarfish was found washed ashore near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Here is a link to a description of the event from grindTV.

Oarfish are native to the Sea of Cortez; maybe this was just one sick or aged fish. Or maybe it is a precursor?

I just wanted to add this info to your discussion, especially since the San Andreas has captured my attention in recent weeks.

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: trying to make mystery bolding disappear

Weird. Sorry, I can't seem to 'unbold' the last lines. No coding is showing to erase..

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: (no reason given)

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: ugh

Hi Olivine,
I'm replying to this with the full quote so you can see how to fix that "bolding" code error. When this weird stuff happens it's often coding within the link. In this case, I removed the "%20" codes between each word in the link and the problem was fixed. I couldn't get in to fix your own post as I don't have mod powers to do that in this forum, so I did it in the quoted version above. Just click "quote" for this post and you'll see how the coding looks now.

Anyway, back to the main subject of your post. Could the unusual appearance of this deep-sea fish be some kind of precursory indicator? Yes, it's not beyond the realms of possibility, as there is a major fault line that runs all the way up the Gulf Of California and Cabo San Lucas is right at the tip of the Baja California Sur:


On the USGS map here, we can see the main fault in the region:

[Map image taken from the main USGS world quakes map

So, as we have that big fault there, it's worth keeping note of any unusual events that might indicate upcoming activity. It's also possible that it was just a sick and wayward fish, but it's better to have the case noted here just on the off chance. So, thanks for posting it!

Mike

reply to post by MamaJ

Well, when Kattrax started this thread back in May 2008, she did so because of the quake swarms in Nevada at that time. She lives there and they were just about going nuts with the shaking that went on day after day, especially with very little information coming from "official" sources.

So, because the various experts couldn't or wouldn't make any predictions about what might happen in relation to that swarm, she started this thread so members could discuss various aspects of quake prediction.

And the thread went on from there. Although Kattrax hasn't been able to spend much time on ATS lately and actually it's been two years since she posted in this thread, much of what's developed here is due to her original efforts and ongoing support for about the first 2 1/2 years the thread was running. We're just continuing with it, so now that NV is possibly having another one of it's swarms we'll have to see where it leads.

One of the positives from the 2007 swarm was that more equipment was brought into the region to monitor the quakes there and a lot of research has been going on since. So, it was beneficial in a way.

Meanwhile I might drop Kattrax a line and see how she's doing. Maybe she can visit the thread and fill us in on a few details.

I haven't had a chance to look for the "irredesence" in the clouds, but my hearing went out on me for a couple of seconds toward the west within the last 2 days. I'm in middle TN and wouldn't be surprised if the New Madrid did some rumbling in a couple of days.

Originally posted by winotka
I haven't had a chance to look for the "irredesence" in the clouds, but my hearing went out on me for a couple of seconds toward the west within the last 2 days. I'm in middle TN and wouldn't be surprised if the New Madrid did some rumbling in a couple of days.

could be, but i am really thinking,
we should be worried on the West Coast!

Look at the weird swarms out here; some in OR last month and lots and lots in CA since,
also these same two places on Juan de Fuca offshore keep getting hit by silent slip (hard to measure) along with 4.0M-5.0M quakes.

I am thinking CA more at risk than WA/OR, but who can know?
You could be totally right about New Madrid -- that's the place Edgar Cayce was so hyped about...
said the oil men would cause the great lakes to go down the mississippi channel and into the sea... and maybe caves in Louisiana too rofl

By the way, folks, California is holding its Great Shake Out drill today, Oct 18. So are people in AZ, AK, ID, OR, NV, WA, the SE US states, Guam, Puerto Rico, and also BC (ie in Canada) and Southern Italy (ie, not in Canada )

So don't panic if you're in one of those regions and you see people dropping and holding.

Unless it's not at 10:18 am where you are.

To see when the next shake out drill is being held in your region (especially in the US), just got to the home page of ShakeOut . org and click on the map for where you live.

Mike

reply to post by KhufuKeplerTriangle

Great comments.

CA is probably more at risk of a fairly major quake in the near term, as it tends to get medium to large ones more often, but the PNW is more at risk of very serious problems when the subduction zone finally lets go with something in the high mag 8 -- low mag 9 range. It will happen eventually, but it's very hard to narrow doewn the time frame as even the past event intervals varied a great deal. (I believe you [KhufuKeplerTriangle] are already well aware of this but some readers here might not be.)

So, there are two different sets of priorities at work, I guess. People in Cal tend to be well aware that they are going to get another "big one" eventually and so the priorities can work all the way down to public level, so Joe and Jane Average will have a fair idea of what to expect and prepare accordingly, based on based events. All the same, only around 20% of home owners have quake coverage.

However, as the last seriously big quake off the PNW was 312 years ago, one of the main priorities has been to convince officialdom of the need to take preperatory action and also filter down information to the general public. One difficulty is that it's hard to get officials to allocate adequate funding when they have "never had" a major quake on the scale of what's possible there. ("Never had", in the sense that the last one happened before "white" populations started to move into the region.)

In fact, this is why one of our members who lives not far outside Seattle was able to get her earthquake insurance rider so cheaply. She was told by the insurance agents that "we don't get big quakes here" and so the premium was very low... From what I recall, the agents actually seemed to think she was a bit nuts for even wanting a quake rider on her home insurance, but they took her money anyway.

If a larger quake doesn't happen until a couple of decades have gone by, she's still going to be way in front.

So, if you live up that way, get your quake insurance while it's still cheap. Or should I say, while insurance companies will still allow you to have it. After the event the premiums will go up to Cali levels, if they even offer it. (In that case the State will likely become insurer of last resort.)

Even in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, it's hard to get officials to take matters seriously and in fact, I have read reports by experts that some officials just "don't want to know" about it. So, that's another region where quake insurance is probably still pretty cheap.

Worth looking into if you live in such regions.

Mike

Dang it. I just have such a strong feeling that I need to be watching the seismos...I have been surfing the net for awhile tonight, looking for inspiration as to where.

Of course, I ended up at here. I started thinking more about Oklahoma. Some of you might remember i was on a kick with Oklahoma last year right before they had a rash of moderate quakes. I was thinking about it, and remembered I had had some dreams and 'impressions' about it, including a possible date but thanks to my short-term memory issues, couldn't recall the details. However, I recalled Mike suggesting that maybe it was in reference to a future date....so i used the search function to find my own, old posts.

Well...if anyone cares to explore it, Here is the thread where I first started talking about it. The jist of it was this: Watch Oklahoma....Western border...7.4 quake...the numbers (date?) 11 7

So...here we are nearly one year later and I am drawn back to it. I once again find myself saying "Watch Oklahoma".

reply to post by JustMike


Very excellent information, thank you for the encouragement.
The main problem in Seattle isn't what they're doing now, I guess - as you say, it's what they are NOT doing.
They are not preparing the public. They are going ahead with the tunnel project even though cavitation on a major fault line has not been done to this degree before, iirc. Who knows if or how that could cause a problem, but I am sure some of you guys have seen the film "Ocean's 13", in which a machine was used to simulate (well, Produce!) an earthquake under a casino so that some thieves could con the house and leave immediately after. LOL.

I don't like the tunnel project or how much it costs. The city should be focused on modular dwellings that are truly eco-friendly. If you noticed, they are just building so many apartment buildings, things that might not stand up to a 9.0 Magnitude quake... they should be building UNMANNED (or at least uninhabited) greenhouses in the skyscrapers, and putting the people in low-storied homes in the suburban area, just need to increase the Metro service.

There is no profit in making Seattle better, just bigger. The people who control this area don't care if we die here.
They don't care if we die here. It's hard to wrap one's head around it.



Also... one other thing about Seattle. One of the reasons our quake WILL be SO BAD, is that after the great fire in the 1890s that burned all of the business and homes downtown, the Masons rebuilt the city in stone that will fall and kill everyone, like the Temple of Dagon fell at Samson's touch.

And who is more like Samson with his hand on the pillars of the earth, than the might Earthquake?
The native americans were wise to fear this place... they told the white man not to build his skyscrapers here, and when the day of fire finally comes, they will watch but they will not mourn the deaths of fools.




I sound like a Doomtard today.



It is a good day to die! ~Star Trek

None of the other signs I usually get, but my ears are ringing like crazy tonight. Loud and long.

Peace

Here too. Steady, but only moderately loud.
But hubby's started a couple of hours before mine.
He said his symptoms are about a 5. (1-10).

Just ate, but hungry again now.
If this keeps up I'm going to have a problem!
Not wanting popcorn though....mmmm, jello sounds good!
Haven't made that since the kids were little.
If I had some to make, I probably wouldn't want it
anymore, by the time it was ready!

Young cat was needing attention earlier tonight too.
Forgot to look at the time. Between 8 & 9 EST maybe.
Within 12 hours? Probably a higher 5.
Nobody is under the desk!
WOQ.

reply to post by westcoast

Hi westcoast,

well, the last time you got focused on Oklahoma, we all know what happened! (And yes, folks, she got talking about it some days before they got their largest recorded quake in -- well, in their history! )

Soooo... For the sake of the Oklahomans I hope you're wrong this time! (And I'm sure you're hoping the same.) But -- knowing you as I do, you're probably not...

Mike

reply to post by KhufuKeplerTriangle

Again, thank you for your comments and insight. I think you've hit the main problems right on target.

Yes, all those stone and stone/brick buildings are structures that the engineering experts refer to as "URM": unreinforced masonry.

I would not want to be in or anywhere near URMs in a major quake, or even a relatively moderate one. There are just too many ways to get clobbered by falling masonry or trapped under tons of it.

There is a good video on a Seattle/PNW major-quake scenario, which includes some quite disturbing expert opinions on what might occur, and which refers specifically to URMs.
Here is part V of the video, but I'd strongly recommend watching the entire program if you have the time:


In summary, this part of the video shows in simulation what could happen in the PNW when the next "megathrust" earthquake occurs in the region. It is not exaggerating the scenario at all and much of what it shows is based upon long-term research of previous meagthrust events that have occured in the Cascadia Subduction Zone over the past several thousand years.

So, considering it's a virtual certainty that another megathrust event will occur in the PNW eventually, why aren't authorities doing much more to try and alleviate the potential loss of life? Why isn't more state and federal funding being allocated to at least reduce the effects of a disaster that would far overshadow even the great SanFrancisco quake?

Part of the almost "head in the sand" attitude with some authorities no doubt stems from the fact that in order to make a city like Seattle even moderately safe in a major quake, billions would need to spent either in retrofitting older structures or pulling them down to build new, adequately-reinforced ones. Besides private homes/apartment buildings, we're talking about large numbers of schools, hospitals, fire stations and other important structures.

Meanwhile, constructing new tunnels virtually within a major fault system under Seattle is an example of officialdom in total denial. True, it could be many decades before the next big quake hits off the coast or along the main faults beneath the city itself, but to effectively reduce ground stability in such a way?

It's an extraordinarily bad idea, to put it mildly.

Further afield, the same "URM" problem exists in cities such as Memphis (TN), and in that particular case, because the place is so low-lying and large sections are built on reclaimed land, massive amounts of subsidence due to liquefaction are pretty well guaranteed in the event of a large quake. The fact that many URMs will simply crumble into rubble is just another aspect in an extremely serious scenario.

Here's the problem: if we talk of these things we often get labelled as merchants of doom-n-gloom. I don't see it that way, because when expert analyses have already shown what is likely to happen and Officialdom still does precious little to even attempt to alleviate the problems, it behoves us to get the word out as best we can.

Forewarned is supposed to mean forearmed. However, if elected officials won't do what needs to be done (or only make what are honestly just token efforts), and instead quietly hope the "big one" doesn't happen on their watch, then it's up to the residents to make their own preparations as best they can.

And they can't prepare for something if they don't know about it.

Best-case scenarios are a waste of time. People need to know the worst that can happen and be ready for that, while at the same time expecting that generally, things won't get that bad.

I said here or on another thread some time back, that when we teach our kids to look both ways before crossing the street because they could otherwise get hit by a car, is that doom and gloom? No, it's good sense. Make them aware but don't make them obsessive about it. That's the balance we're trying to find here and I think overall, we're doing a good job.

And in respect of Seattle and much of the PNW, I feel you have every right to feel so negative towards to attitude of "the powers that be".

I felt the same here about our own "ptb". Not in respect of quakes, but the potential for a major flood. TPTB spent years discussing this or that option and meanwhile made token efforts -- like building half a defence wall in one small section by the river , and then, along came a "one-in-500-year" flood. It wreaked utter havoc and cost a massive amount in damage -- much of which could have been prevented if they'd taken action years earlier and built the flood defences that they finally built -- after the flood!

That's the way officialdom works. They almost never act to protect the community until after a major wake-up call. And most likely, that's the way it will be in the PNW and also in the region around the New Madrid. So, for anyone who lives in those regions, in anything approaching a worst-case scenario, your own safety will largely depend on your good selves.

Mike

Don't know what's going on......but my nerves are REALLY on edge!
Ears just started ringing some.
Hungry like crazy. Sitting here eating Spam right out of the can! Eeeewwww!!!

We've been having internet issues for two days now. It goes out about every 20 minutes,
& stays out for 5 minutes or so. Maybe I'm just getting really p o'd!

Earlier hubby came into the house & asked if I had checked the quakes lately?!
Just now when I asked him if he's feeling anything, he just started laughing....
almost cackling, said 'No' and walked away!!!???

What the heck is up???
Four + hours of no eq's too, something's weird!
I have errands to run, but I don't want to leave the house!
Anyone else???
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I'm hearing you, and feeling ya too.

Peace

I'm just this moment having what was known to me as my EQ feeling. It has moved beyond that, as far as I can tell, but to what I'm not at all sure. However, I have just had a very strong feeling of *something*.

On my way home a few minutes ago (within the last quarter hour) I had a HUGE feeling fluttering around. Again, it could be something else or it could be EQ activity. It just felt substantially bigger than the earlier one.

Updating to add that I've just had another blast of it. These are starting to remind me of the big Indian Ocean quake of 2004. Those were the early days for me to get, or at least notice, these feelings. I had this same feeling for four days before that one, and at times it was so heavy that I couldn't breathe. These today aren't quite that intense but I've had a lot more years of it now too. At this rate though, who knows?

Right now everyone in the house is in bed early. Cept the cat but she's in here bugging me and stuff. She's reallllly needy. I'm laying here in bed because its all I've felt like doing today. Earlier I had an upset stomach. I have felt pretty much a sloth. Ears ringing on occasion the past days. We may have some interesting developments from the sun. I think I saw there was an M class flare. Not sure if it was earth directed or not. Also we have some orionids to be looking out for. Should be interesting. I hope everyone is well.

Old cat was under the desk for awhile tonight,
& young cat was wanting attention a little while ago too.

My ears just started ringing, can't sleep,
looked at USGS & saw no eq's for over five hours!
Then they finally added a 3.2 in the Virgin Islands,
but that still seems way too quiet!!!

WOQ