An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction, page 152


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reply posted on 2-9-2012 @ 01:54 AM by Doodle19815
reply to post by westcoast


So funny WC, it is 1:50 am here right now and I can't sleep. That cold feeling on the top of my head is back and I feel like I could run a marathon. Been laying in bed for a few hours and just decided to give it up. Picked up the IPad to check quakes and saw your post.

Sweet dreams......



reply posted on 5-9-2012 @ 12:20 PM by westcoast
reply to post by Doodle19815


Well...that unease didn't go away. It actually got worse until finally, Monday night I told my husband something I haven't said since the day before the Japan quake. "Something is going to happen" He asked me what and all I could say was that I didn't know, but that the last time I felt that way was before the Japan quake. That the best way I can describe it is that there was "a disturbance in the force."

The quake last night??? I dunno....it is a big one and on the same side of the ring of fire as me. But I dunno. So far, no reports of death and I have come to assoiate these feelings with mass deaths.


reply posted on 5-9-2012 @ 01:41 PM by lasertaglover
reply to post by westcoast


That must be horrible when the feelings are linked to mass death. I believe I just feel them when they are bigger. I think the sense gets scrambled a bit when their is strong solar activity, but beyond that, it just hits when an eq is coming.

I know I gotboth quakes last week, and missed over the weekend. But I still think something else is imminent. Felt great mid morning, all symptoms back again.

Rrrrr.

Peace and love


reply posted on 6-9-2012 @ 04:52 PM by JustMike
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

Hi everyone,

I must apologise for my absence lately. I've been around but I'm in the process of learning what moderators need to know and do and it's been taking up most of my time on ATS for the past couple of weeks. (And it still does!!)

Now, to the topic at hand... Just for the record, as the relevant quake details have not be posted in this thread yet:
Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by JustMike


Again, thanks Mike. The feelings are still there, but turned down a bit as compared to this past weekend Personally, if an 8 does not happen by this weekend, than I think we wont see anything for a little while. But I o still think an 8 will happen in the next 72 hours.

Peace

Laser posted the above at 4:56 pm (16:56) UTC on August 29.
Less than two days later, this occurred:

Magnitude
Mw 7.6
Region
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
Date time
2012-08-31 12:47:32.0 UTC
Location
10.86 N ; 126.68 E
Depth
20 km
Distances
433 km N Davao (pop 1,212,504 ; local time 20:47:32.8 2012-08-31)
187 km E Tacloban (pop 189,090 ; local time 20:47:32.8 2012-08-31)
106 km E Guiuan (pop 11,041 ; local time 20:47:32.8 2012-08-31)
93 km E Sulangan (pop 3,034 ; local time 20:47:32.8 2012-08-31)

From EMSC

Next, on August 31 at 6:45 pm (18:45) UTC, Laser posted the following:
Originally posted by lasertaglover
So same thing again. I thought I would be done this week after gettingthese two. Felt so much better this morning, and now everything is back again. Just woke up from a power nap that was filled with horrible dreams, people crying, pain everywhere. The energy is too strong to not say something, so here...another very strong 7 or 8 will happen in the next 72 hours.

Last year I was pretty accurate, earlier this year I was wrong. I hate these feelings, cause they make no f ing difference at all. So please, please be wrong.. Two for two this week, Please be wrong.

Peace and love
edit on 31-8-2012 by lasertaglover because: (no reason given)

There was no major quake within the next 72 hours, but 5 days after the above post, the following occurred:

Magnitude
Mw 7.6
Region
COSTA RICA
Date time
2012-09-05 14:42:10.0 UTC
Location
10.16 N ; 85.39 W
Depth
40 km
Distances
1161 km W Barranquilla (pop 1,380,425 ; local time 09:42:10.5 2012-09-05)
146 km W San josé (pop 335,007 ; local time 08:42:10.5 2012-09-05)
8 km E Nicoya (pop 15,313 ; local time 08:42:10.5 2012-09-05)


Source: EMSC

Considering that the average time between magnitude 7-plus events is about 23.5 days and this quake occurred only a week after the Philippine event, I think it's worthy of note.

Also, where Laser says “ Two for two this week” he is referring to his post here on August 24 at 8:47 pm (20:47) UTC and the quake that magnitude 7.3 quake that occurred three days later off El Slavador, whose details I've posted here.

I'd also like to note that several other members posted indications as well and these help to corroborate the concept that some people are perhaps sensitive to quakes before they occur. Okay, I've long asserted that in this thread (as have several others) but by accumulating this data we are helping to strengthen the case and make it worth further study.

Mike

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.
edit on 6/9/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 6-9-2012 @ 05:11 PM by JustMike
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hello WOQ,

knowing your ability to observe and keep a pretty cool head, I'm concerned by what you've posted. And yes, your comment about the popcorn is part of that. (For those who don't know, craving popcorn is actually a possible indicator. Anyone who wants more details of the possible why, please ask and I'll do my best to elaborate.)

But yes, your post and the others on this page especially are making me go "hmmm", because with all I've had going on lately -- and I don't mean just on ATS -- I'm finding it hard to differentiate between my own possible "indicators" and normal distractions.

People, if any of you have even an inkling of where you think the next major quake might be, then by all means post. This is an experimental thread and you have the right to have your say, no matter what method you use to get your answers. Naturally, it's always helpful to have some knowledge of what's possible in a location and what is highly unlikely, but by now, many of you have gleaned a deal of knowledge just from studying quake maps and reliable websites, and you can employ that knowledge to your thinking.

I said a few years back and several times since that generally, I usually cannot get reliable indicators more than about 5 days out. It seems that Laser generally runs around 3 days but sometimes up to five (and with Japan it was around a week, but that was a massive event). So for any of you who feel your senses picking up, see if you can work out how long before an event you begin to notice. Just a rough guide will help.

And don't be concerned if you "miss" some events completely, or you're a couple of days out. In the material logged in this thread there are plenty of cases where these things happen, but that doesn't matter. What we are looking for at this stage is simply evidence, not 100% reliability. The more evidence we can collect, the more we have to work with and maybe, just maybe, bring this whole concept of prediction closer to a workable reality.

For any newcomers, I'd just like to reiterate that I believe there is very likely a physical basis to what many of us sense. That is, there is a cause, or a set of possible causes (or "triggers") and one day, it may be possible to identify them clearly. If what we apparently sense derives from certain types of energy release -- as quakes are all about energy, and huge amounts of it, at that -- then the task will be to discover a way to measure and monitor that energy. And if that can be done, then who knows? It may be possible to design machines that will detect what we do, but more reliably and without our own natural biases.

Science is still learning about our world, and in tectonics, they have a very long way to go, as many researchers in the field will freely admit. New discoveries are being made that add to our knowledge, and what we are doing could be a small part of the process.

So, please share, and we will see where it might lead.

Mike

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.

edit on 6/9/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 6-9-2012 @ 05:15 PM by JustMike
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

reply to post by UnknownEntity

Hello UnknownEntity,

I'm glad to be able to help in some way. I am also glad you posted. Whether a particulkar event comes to pass or not, it is still of value to have some details here. Sometimes the jigsaw puzzle is very big and we don't discover the value of a certain small piece until some others are in place.

So, I encourage you to keep posting. And I encourage everyone to do likewise, and also to share any useful knowledge you may find that relates to the subject of quakes. What might not mean much to some could be a key piece to others, so it's worth sharing.

Best regards,

Mike

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.

edit on 6/9/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)




reply posted on 6-9-2012 @ 10:07 PM by wasobservingquietly
reply to post by JustMike

Hi, Mike!

Still having ear ringing & that antsy feeling.
Hubby still has his symptoms too.

The antsy I could write off as from 'distractions' as you had mentioned too.
But I think with the other symptoms also going on it's more.

But in the interest of full disclosure, I have to put this out there...

On Sunday, eight of our family are flying to Sydney for two weeks.
We will be taking a side trip to Tonga too.

The reason this has anything to do with anything, is because of the weird things that happen in our family!
What's that word....synchronicity! Or maybe fate has a twisted sense of humor! But odds are pretty good
that something notable will happen while we are gone!

We went to Tonga in 1980. Flew in from Samoa on a little 'puddle jumper' & went through the tail end of a hurricane!
That was before the weather channel & televised radar. It was a very scary flight!
We could see lots of damage when we were landing.

In 1995 we went to Australia. They had record cold while we were there. We were freezing even in the house.
Then we stopped in Hawaii on the way back. They were having record heat! No air conditioning in the hotel we stayed at, just ceiling fans. They never needed it before!

Sooo....imagine my horror when I saw the thread on a 9.0 earthquake & tsunami for Sydney & California!!!
Not just Australia, specifically Sydney! And we are connecting in L.A.!
What are the odds? Actually, I don't even want to know!

So, just from past experience, (Not just these, there are many more!), I am going to say....
If something unusual doesn't happen in the next two weeks, starting Sunday, I will be very surprised!
Not a prediction, but since we started planning this in June, I've had a very uneasy feeling!

Choice of connecting flights: Denver,(wildfires at the time), Atlanta, Houston, Phoenix,(possible delays or cancellations from hurricanes). Finally found a direct flight. Then, connect in San Francisco or L.A.?
I mulled over the pros & cons for a few days. Finally picked L.A. because it was a much shorter layover.
Then the swarm started in Brawley, & I was wishing I had picked S.F.!

The side trip to Tonga is no less stressful! Long layovers in N.Z., Fiji, &/or the Cook Islands.
Of course, about that time the volcano in NZ started perking.(Possible delays & cancellations?)
And there were some moderate quakes in those general areas too!
But we were lucky & found one airline that had a direct flight!

So this time, thanks to USGS & ATS, I'm am too aware of what goes on in the world! The other times I was happily oblivious! At least now, if I see all the water being sucked out of Sydney Harbor, I'll know to run!!!
I actually picked hotels that were at a safer distance from the water, & rooms on higher floors!
They all think I'm paranoid! I don't think so, but apparently, I do spend too much time reading things on ATS!

I was debating about whether or not I should say anything over on Quake Watch. Maybe someone could start a pool....How big & how close will 'it' get to where we will be?! I won't define 'it'. I don't want to give wings to thoughts!!!

It could be a very interesting two weeks! But I don't want to end up being an 'on the spot' reporter!
Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst after all!!!

WOQ


reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 03:11 AM by JustMike
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Ho WOQ,

that's quite an itinerary you've got planned there! Hopefully it'll all be plain sailing -- or flying!

About the chances of a mag 9.0 near Sydney, Australia. As far as we know, there hasn't been one in that region. I've certainly never read any serious reports that indicate such a thing. The tectonics in the region make it pretty unlikely: there just don't seem to be any faults around that could build up such enormous stress and energy.

However, that being said, it doesn't hurt to be cautious -- especially if one feels that something might be up. After all, what harm can it do to play things on the safe side? And around Sydney, accommodation a little further back from the water is likely to be cheaper anyway.

Tonga is another matter entirely. It's in a tectonically active region so it's worth keeping an eye out. I don't mean anything is supposed to be imminent there, but the faults in the region can produce some big shakes from time to time. There was a magnitude 6.7 near Tonga back on April 28, but for that region it's nothing extraordinary and of course a 6-something quake is a gnat's sneeze compared to an 8-plus. On balance, though, the odds of a major one there in any given short period of time are still quite low.

This "mag 9 in California" thing is bothersome because again, there is no known fault within that state capable of producing one. Even within the San Andreas Fault system (as it's not just one fault but a whole system of them), the biggest quake possible is estimated at maybe in the low mag 8 range. That's still huge, but pales in comparison to anything in the mag 9 range.

However... Off the coast from Cali is a different story, especially in the northern part of the state. That's because of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), that runs for a good 600 miles all the way down from around Vancouver Island, past WA and OR, ending around the triple junction off Eureka in Nth Cal. The CSZ is well capable of a mag 9 quake and has produced them in the past at intervals of some hundreds of years. (The last one was 312 years ago.)

The CSZ's big quakes have produced tsunamis on about the same scale as the huge one in Japan last year and with the shape of the coast it would likely have some effects even down in SoCal's coastal regions.

When will the next big one happen along the CSZ? No-one knows for sure. All the experts say is that we are "in the window" geologically speaking and sooner or later, there'll be another one. They have warned authorities that it's best to make preparations now, but they don't say that to scare monger, they're just using good horse sense. The experts also make the point that it could be a century or more till the next CSZ big one, but we'd be foolish to count on that when in the past, there was at least one case where quakes arrived just two centuries apart and we've already had over three.

That's just the analysis from what we know can happen. Statistically, I mean. If we lived our lives relying only on statistics and "what's happened before" to protect us, we'd have far more troubles than doing what most folks do -- going with your gut sometimes.

So, follow your own best instincts, but mainly -- have fun and don't let it get to you.

Mike

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.

edit on 7/9/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)



reply posted on 7-9-2012 @ 01:06 PM by wasobservingquietly
reply to post by JustMike


Thanks, Mike!

Some of that info made me feel better....some didn't!
But overall it was mostly reassuring!

We say it's only called 'Murphy's Law' because he was older than we are,
was here first, & was someone people took notice of.
In our family it's known as _ _ _ _ _ _'s Law! Ha, ha!

I used to be an optimist, but not so much now as I get older.
I don't want to be a pessimist! But didn't know what I was?
A cousin told me I've turned into a realist. I guess he's right!

As someone who knows music, you would probably be familiar with Doris Day's
rendition of, 'Que Sera, Sera"!
I would probably tweak the lyrics a little to be more 'in tune' with our family!
(Sorry, just couldn't help myself!!!)

I was 'informed' that I will have to go 'cold turkey' from USGS & ATS for two weeks!
But I hope to be able to check in once in awhile. Hopefully, I won't miss anything interesting!
I'll be hoping that it's a boring, mundane two weeks everywhere!

WOQ


reply posted on 12-9-2012 @ 02:27 PM by JustMike
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

Hi WOQ,

glad you had a good flight and reached Sydney okay!

Not sure what to make of the ringing in the ears. I've done the same sort of long-haul flights to and from Australia and it didn't trouble me much except for the jet lag. But it's possibly just that you still need to readjust. It can take some days to really settle in when you've gone such a long way around the planet, especially to the other hemisphere.

The thing with the sulphur smells in SoCal is interesting. I know there was a quake swarm in region recently but hard to say if there's a definite link. (However any opinions from members are very welcome!)

Regarding the possible ocean warming near Japan, I posted a few times in a thread on it and pointed out that as far as I'd be able to determine, the map being referred to wasn't showing temperatures but currents. Another member made a useful point that it was also indicating sea level variations. This can have a tie-in with currents as well.

Frankly I don't see a case for major sea warming near Japan. It's not really being shown on the maps the OP in that thread referred to, and also it would take an incredible amount of energy to significantly raise the temperature of hundreds of cubic miles of sea water in one region. Even when a new island is being formed by volcanic activity it's only the very local waters that get warmer, not huge stretches many miles distant. If such a thing was happening on a massive scale it would be impossible to hide it from the public eye, especially with all the user-input media available these days and the fact that many ships sail those waters every day. It would be all over the news.

Anyway at least the world is fairly quiet at the moment as far as quakes go.

Oh, BTW, there was a mag 3.2 quake 80 km ENE of Sydney on Monday afternoon (Sept 10) local time. Was felt in Sydney. USGS link here. It was one of the larger ones near Sydney in the past 20 years or so, I believe.

Maybe it was to welcome you.

Best regards,

Mike

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.



reply posted on 13-9-2012 @ 09:33 PM by rbkruspe
I haven't been too active the past few days here and I wish it was easier. I have had a lot of nastiness that keeps me from being able to do much. I sometimes cannot even sit at the computer due to the electromagnetic energies and light and all. I had a lot this week to deal with and I managed to keep a paper log and i decided that if I can't get on here I will do that. I can use my iPhone to snap an image and turn it into a PDF. I believe that helps somewhat in the "proof" part of dates and whatnot. If I document something on paper and date it and take a picture there's a date associated and a time.

It's just my nature to be as honest as I can be and with this kind of topic, people could discredit people's experience just because they were posted after a big event happens. With all the naysayers about this place (thankfully not this thread) it makes me very nervous. Its so important to have a place where we are comfortable in sharing. This is not easy stuff to talk about and the people in this thread are all so open and nice to another. It's nice that after a year I am getting comfortable enough to be as active as I have been.

Its quite amazing and Mike is quite helpful with his encouragement and the info. I am glad to be around those that are as determined and strong minded as I am to get it into a favorable light for an acceptable theory. I despise how it's just "junk science" and "impossible" to some people. Science is not good nor bad. It just is. And it is forever changing and not always 100% I digress since I could write a novel on that. Didn't mean to blather but I had to just express how I feel.

So I just feel quite strange today and just in the past hour I've felt increased anxiety. Thankfully sometime yesterday the feeling of shaking stopped. I really am tired of that. I cannot determine if it's mechanical or not because it sometimes feels mechanical but it makes NO sense when its felt throughout my ENTIRE apartment. I plan on asking a maintenance man if they have any idea of what it is and if they haven't got any machinery under the place to circulate air or whatnot.. Anyway I'm just quite tired and have some reservations about quakes happening sometime soon like another 7 (ack I hit the 8 instead of the 7 key..hope it doesn't mean anything) I just am very concerned. I have this level of chill like I did prior to the 5.8 in va. Nothing physical really. Some vertigo this morning slightly but not much else. I'll try and update again later if I can. I have to get my info from my notepad up on here cause its got important things.

I hope woq is ok cause I saw tonga had a quake earlier sometime and I can't imagine being in such a seismic place. I think id just die. Have a good time though really girl. Vacations are fun!


reply posted on 14-9-2012 @ 12:14 AM by wasobservingquietly
WOQ, checking in.

I'm in sensory overload & it's great! So much to see & do that I can't possibly take it all in!!!
Running on little sleep, but lots of adrenaline. (Also no spell check, but it is a vacation after all!)
So far it doesn't seem to have changed too much, but I understand most of the recent growth is in the outer areas.

The only thing that ruffles my feathers is coming all the way to Australia & seeing American programs & infomercials on TV & hearing American songs on the radio! We are in danger of becoming one global culture!
I love the diversity here. So much more here, even than when I lived in Hawaii.
I want to talk to everyone & find out their life story!
When we were on the escalator today, I asked my sister-in-law if she would be embarrassed if I yelled,
'hello Australia", from the top! But I contained myself like a good visitor should!

I was introduced to Australian McDonald's "Serious Lamb Burger'! A lamb pattie with an egg on top, & spinach,
red onion, tomato & red beet slices. Such magnificant 'awesomeness'!!! I'm not a McD's burger fan,
but the SLB is something else! And huge! Who would have thought they would actually have something
remotely healthy! I feel so much better here. Probably because the food we are eating is hormone
& additive free for the most part. And fresh fruit that isn't picked green to ship it!

Still having the ear ringing, but not as much as before. It only has been waking me up once a night now,
& it's not as loud as it was the first night. I really think it's the 5's that I'm closer to now. When I wake up & note the time, later when I check, it's usually pretty close to that time.

The kids & grandkids went out whale watching today. (A little anxious about that!) My sister-in-law & I went to the shopping center.
I got a little edgy when my ears started ringing again. Especially when we had to go get the car from the underground parking garage!!! Was glad to get out of there!

*****Mike*****
I don't know if that quake was for us or not. We were still someplace over the Pacific at that time.
We landed at 6 AM local time on their Tuesday. Ha, ha! No repeats please!

*****rbkruspe*****
I saw the quake in Tonga. No worries, we don't go to Tonga 'til the 18th. The US's 17th. I'm a little anxious, but won't worry unless we get strong symptoms. We'll be coming back on the 20th, so hopefully nothing happens while we're there!
Just in case, I booked a hotel in the middle of the island. Also good because it's halfway between the airport & the capitol. It is next to a lagoon, but it's the only place far away from the coast.
Hope you're feeling better by now!

Will check in again when I can!
WOQ
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