An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Well everyone, I may have mentioned that I am a nursing student, and reading through these posts, I have to say, please watch yourselves and your loved ones and be careful about what is being observed. Although I will be the first to acknowledge that our bodies are barometers for our earthly environment, still, many symptoms we experience may have other causes, and I urge everyone to please monitor their health and their loved ones, just to make sure the symptoms that are presenting are not indicative of something much different. It would be a good idea to learn to take vital signs and watch for any abnormal vital signs. Piercing pain and shortness of breath are major indicators of heart attacks, an impending heart attack, and angina (I work in a cardiac ICU), so I will feel better knowing that everyone on this thread is taking that extra precaution. I've actually wanted to speak up and say something for awhile but haven't but I feel better at least putting this to you guys. I know everyone on this thread is intelligent and already knows all of this, it's just a nursing thing for me to say something...ok, I feel better now, just had to get that out!

I have heard a LOT of rumbling today in Memphis, and the weather is sunny and hot with small puffy white clouds. I keep looking for a thundercloud off in the distance but there are none. I have tried to get an audio recording but my phone isn't picking it up well enough, I don't know if that is because of the app or my phone. My kids are hearing it too (without me mentioning it to them) and are looking a little confused because it sounds like we should be expecting a rain cloud to show up and yet its bright sunshine outside. The animals are all acting ok but it's hot out so they are a little on the mellow side right now anyway.

So, don't know if something is coming up, but if anyone else in Memphis is out and about, would love to hear if you are observing anything as well.

I have been getting tones that come to the west side off and on. That would especially mean the New Madrid for me. I've also been getting quick jolts under my feet the last couple of days. It's interesting that someone posted about hearing rumbles in Memphis. I'm in middle TN.

I am getting the felling something is going to go bump in the night.
I am basing this on nothing but gut feeling. I say the next 48 hours. NO place particular.

Been felling anxious again. Pressure on the head again. Don't know, we shall see.
Just wanted to document it here.

Hello everyone,

back in this post on June 7, I posted the following prediction:

This prediction is for an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 (Mw) or greater, within or at least close to the coordinates of 14 S and 76 to 77 W, within a time window of seven days from the time of this post, which is just after 20:15 UTC on June 7, 2012.

A quake in or very close the stated zone will only be counted as a "hit" if it is at least a magnitude 6.5 Mw and is within the specified time window. Anything less than that just is too small in terms of energy release.

I wish to state that no such quake occurred within the stated region and time frame, and so this prediction is a no hit. Furthermore, there has not been even one magnitude 7.0 or greater quake anywhere in the world since April 12, 2012 (a mag 7.0 in the Gulf of California) -- meaning that a full 78 days have now passed since that last event.

While this is well beyond the long-term average of one such event approximately every 23.5 days (world-wide), it does not mean the next one has to occur within the next few days. There have been much longer periods between magnitude 7-plus events in the last century or so, including some cases of 100+ days between such events.

I'm pointing this out to make it clear that the over-average time since the last quake (on April 12) had no bearing on my decision to make the prediction as I did back on June 7. My prediction was based on observations and indications in the target region, and in this case I simply got it wrong.

It was not a case of, "It's been (X) days since the last one and that's over the average, so another one is due any tick of the clock", because for one thing, the average interval between larger quakes is just that: an average. It's primarily useful for statistical purposes. For example, while the rate for 1/1/1900 to 12/31/1999 for mag 7.0 or bigger events was 15.53 per annum (according to the centennial list), the variation of time between events is huge.

However, I am currently exploring a hypothesis that there could be a predictive advantage in determining when a mag 7.0 or greater quake might occur in one special circumstance. My first rough review of longer-term data suggests that when there is a period of more than 2x the average between one M.7.0 (or bigger) quake and the next, then the next such event after that has a greater chance of occurring at less than the average interval.

Example: say there is a mag 7.0 or bigger quake, and then it's more than 47 days till the next one. [Average interval is 23.5 days, so 47 is 2x this number.] It appears that the next large quake after that event occurs less than 23.5 days later -- more often than not -- and this seems to be so even when "aftershock" events are excluded. (As they can often be expected to occur pretty soon after a big shock.)

I'm still studying the data and it's a slow process because the source Centennial Quake Data Catalogue -- available here from USGS and produced by researchers from the U of Colorado -- has the listed quake data in a scanned-in form in the pdf. So, I have to manually assemble my own list of qualifying events (no copy and paste!) and it's very tedious and takes a lot of time.

I expect to have some firm figures from this project available during the coming month as I now have some vacation time to work on it. So, I'll see what an objective review of the data actually shows. If my hypothesis is right, then it could be useful in prediction work. If it's wrong then at least it can be excluded. While I'm only into the 2nd decade of the 20th century with the data so far, the figures look encouraging. But that's only a small percentage of the data I'm working with and so I'm not counting my chickens!

Mike

On to other stuff: I'd like to concur with what JustSaying has said. Anyone who experiences unusual symptoms of uncertain etiology should always exclude possible medical causes first. I had to do this myself because of some of the symptoms I was getting. Concerned by sudden headaches and other nasty stuff, I underwent some pretty thorough medical investigations, including wearing a cardiac monitor for a few days and also having one of those MRI scans done. Of my head -- to hopefully exclude any tumors or whatever.

The doctor who did the MRI said to me right after she'd finished: "Mr XXXXXX, I am happy to inform you that nothing is happening inside your head."

"Thank you, Doctor," I replied. "People have been telling me this for years, so it's good have it officially confirmed...."

Best regards to everyone,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


That's hilarious! Also its good to know that you are medically cleared which means you will be around for a while, which means, hopefully, you will continue to keep us updated as you do, which is much appreciated!

Hi, any lurkers out there???

I've been debating whether or not I should post! But the longer I put it off, the more signs I've been seeing.
Young cat has been trilling & wanting attention. She has been under the desk a few times in the last couple of days. She & old cat were sleeping a foot apart by the desk earlier. They barely tolerate each other unless something is on the way. Old cat was under the desk yesterday. I can't remember the last time he did that!

Hubby called from work on Tuesday to see if something was listed, he felt so terrible he had almost stayed home.
He still feels pretty awful. He hasn't been himself since last Friday.

I keep getting shocks off of the car. So far that's the only thing 'shocking'. In the past it was anything metal & even the grandkids & cats. I think I was giving them that time. They wouldn't come near me!
I had been very uncoordinated a few days ago, not so much now, but can't type worth a darn! Earlier today I felt weird, like a sadness kind of. For no reason. That's not me! Aaaahhhh!!! I'm starting to take on hubby's symptoms! It really must be true what they say about married couples!

Anyone else noticing anything???
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Wow, funny you mention it. Yes, my cat has not been sleeping on the bed the past couple nights (this is highly unusual) and instead has been sleeping back in the closet. My wife and I were concerned this morning because he did not even come out for treats before we left for work - again exceptionally unusual. He is usually all over the place - mr personality we call him. My wife kept txting me all day about how she is concerned about the cat, afraid he is sick. Tonight he is a bit better though - in fact, as I type this he just brought his toy over to me so we can play fetch.

My ears keep popping and my right ear is totally muffled but I think that is related to congestion of course.

Speaking of alternative methods of earthquake prediction - the reason I came to the thread is because of the X-class flare that the sun released today. It will be an interesting next 5-7 days or so perhaps.

Besides a mag 6 here and there, Earth has been very quiet the past several weeks.

reply to post by nydsdan

Hi!
I read about the solar flare right after I posted.

That happened once before. We kept waiting for a good sized earthquake because of the symptoms we were having...and nothing happened.

Someone posted about a solar flare during that time & it made us wonder if there was a connection.
Guess we'll have to wait & see!

If there is a quake too, how will we know which we were feeling?
I guess if the symptoms are stronger than expected, for the size of the quake, then maybe we were feeling both???? Hmmmm.......
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I can tell you I'm feeling this solar flare hard right now. I've had a serious headache and nausea since I woke up and it won't go away no matter how much medication I pump in my body. What a miserable feeling, I get headaches often but nothing quite like this. Anyone else having a really crappy day?

Yeah, I am feeling quite rough. I have not had a good go of it since before the arrival of the CME. I have not felt this nasty since sometime back in about Jan/Feb when we had a barrage of CMEs..I will have to check to see when exactly but it was bad. This storm is really hanging on and the Kp Index is down from 6 to 5 but it seems that it is going to slack off.. Just a note that I was the one that mentioned the flare a few months back (someone in an above post mentioned it)

I have been mostly nauseated and rather fatigued and blah. The usual stuff with solar storms. Its akin to a hangover..queasy and nasty. Dull headache has been my other problem but I am sure partly its because I lean on my desk resting on my elbow and my jaw resting on my hand/fist... I am trying to not do this for a few reasons. I spent a good part of my day in bed.

As for quakes. I am surprised nothings rumbling beneath me yet but this storm is still going on. Tomorrow will likely bring on any tremors from the ground..I say this only for ME and at MY location because that is how it usually happens. So I am not making a prediction for anyone or anywhere just basing this on what happens as a rule.

I have yet to mosey to the USGS but I shall... I am slow on the data watching front since I have been feeling so crap. We will just have to see.

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Well, see, I have been aware of my sensitivity to the solar stuff longer than the quakes but mostly it is just from experience that I can tell the difference, but then there are times that I cannot tell what is going on. I know it will be one or the other. Observing of patterns and animal behaviour is important too. Like my cat is driving me insane right about now, and the neighbourhood cats are acting oddly as well!

I would love to write out a better detailed example but I cannot sit at the comp that long. I shall do that sometime after the geomagnetic storm dies down a bit and I feel more clearheaded. Glad to be able to answer your questions though. I hope your hubby is doing okay.

reply to post by TMG333


How are you feeling by now?
Do you usually have headaches during solar flares?
WOQ

reply to post by rbkruspe


There sure is a lot for us to learn & be aware of!!!

We both had a pretty good day yesterday!
Then not quite two hours ago, hubby called from work on his lunch break.
Said he was starting to feel awful again, like something is building.

It's such a roller coaster ride!
The cats have been mostly sleeping, they do that a lot anymore!
The young one was trilling & wanted attention for a short time last night, but it was only for a few minutes.
She was over it so fast, that we joked about it & wondered if cats can have false alarms!!!

How are you feeling today? Do your symptoms taper off as the flare subsides?
I wonder over how broad of an area it could be felt?
I would think fairly large. We're in PA.
We were really exhausted last night, but we did too much this weekend trying to get caught up!
I don't usually get headaches, so I can't imagine how anyone that does can even function!
Especially if they are eq & flare triggered! Hubby gets them sometimes, but usually only around a 6 eq or higher.
Hope you're feeling better by now!

WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I am a little better today, just a mild headache at the moment but I think that's just my caffeine withdrawal telling me to go make my afternoon tea. I started suffering from frequent headaches/migraines back in high school and at the time I was most definitely not paying any attention to what the sun or the earth was doing. Several doctors and medications later we still had absolutely no explanation as to what was triggering them. I've been dealing with it for about 12 years now and I still don't know exactly what brings them on. I had a few years where they were fairly quiet between about 2006 and 2009, and they have started to pick back up since. I guess since I don't know what my triggers are and modern medicine hasn't been much of a help I have to assume that it's something more unconventional.

Yoo-hoo!!!

Anyone lurking???

Someone else must be feeling something......
We've been feeling it for days, young cat has been trilling almost every day!

Thought it must be all the 6's, finally felt pretty good after the one yesterday.
Woke up this morning feeling not so well again & saw the new one.

But it's getting worse....building pretty quickly.
We were supposed to go somewhere in a little while....hubby just said he can't go...needs to go lie down for a while & I was glad to stay home too!

Are we the only ones??? Please say it 'ain't' so! Misery sooo loves company!!!

WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


Just been insanely tired for the last two days for no real reason at all, yet unable to sleep much at night as usual. Just got up from attempting to nap, throwing in the towel on that idea. That's about the only thing unusual I have to report.

Hello everyone,

sorry I've been off the thread recently. Just wanted to say that purely from a personal perspective, I have had no specific indicators of anything major coming up. However, I sometimes miss ones that other people get, so by all means please post if you feel anything is indicated. The more specific you can be (if possible), the better.

Meanwhile I'd just like to make an observation. As of the time of writing this post, there has been no magnitude 7.0 (Mw) or greater quake anywhere in the world since April 12. So, it's been 111 days since that last one, and this is a lot longer than the "average" between mag 7s of around 23 days.

As part of a bigger project that I'm still working on, I did a review of quake intervals for all the events listed in the centennial earthquake catalogue (available in the USGS database as a pdf at this link), and of the 1553 magnitude 7 (or greater) quakes listed there from 1/1/1900 to 12/31/1999, only 19 occurred at intervals of 110 days or more. (ie Time from one until the next one was more than 109 days.)

In other words, on average we can expect a 110-day (plus) interval between two mag 7 quakes to occur only about once every five years.

The longest time between two such quakes in the 20th century was from Sept 12, 1965 to March 12, 1966 -- six months (or 181 days, to be precise).

Now, some might imagine that if there is a well-over-average time between larger quakes, then when one happens it will be a huge one. While that's not such an unreasonable line of thinking, I found no evidence to actually support it. In fact, the size of our next quake could just as easily be another low-range mag 7 event. In most cases that has been the way it has gone.

The problem is trying to figure out where the next mag 7-plus might be! So if you have any inklings, please post.

Regards,

Mike

Wow what a swell time I had the past nights. I was out of it and sick quite much this weekend. Sleep issues, headaches, stomach indigestion etc. I guess mom nature is to thank. :/

Sunday into Monday was probably the worst. My SO and I had been constantly phoning all weekend and so he was well aware of almost every issue. He asked about eq stuff and solar stuff and I just procrastinated horridly and forgot a lot. He's quite persistent too and that's good but he allows me to get away with it. ADHD Is not at all kind to me during times like this. So anyway. I just couldn't quite get it together to post anywhere and I am trying to keep up. I really need to work on writing stuff out when it happens.

I will sit down later and write when I can get a moment of quiet. Busy afternoon. I just wanted to check in since I was in the forum for the quake stuff as is.

I haven't posted in a while. However, this past week I have been experiencing more and more palpitations. Today they have been nearly constant, all day long. Not strong like before Japan, or not as strong. Just continual with flurries of stronger ones at times. Just posting for posterity, I suppose.