An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction, page 148

reply to post by wasobservingquietly

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Hello WOQ,

yes, it has been a bit quiet on here lately I suppose. I need to mention that I was still lurking and taking note of all the posts made here even while I wasn't actively contributing; I expect that many of us do the same from time to time.

As for “boring” – it would be great if it would stay that way in respect of major quakes, but the world being as it is now I doubt it will be too boring for too long. What I mean is that because there are now more people living on this planet than ever before, the odds are that even in places where larger quakes did relatively little harm in the past – such as the New Madrid region or the PNW, to name a couple within the US alone – we're not going to get off so lightly next time.

And then, when we consider the several hundred currently-running nuclear reactors around the world, and various others that have been shut down but which still have spent fuel pools that need to be cooled and maintained, they are another factor in making things potentially far worse.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone: it's a quandary, because scientists still can't be sure how things might pan out next time or even when the next big event might be. I think there's pretty fair agreement in the scientific community that there will be a next time, but anything beyond that is hard to determine as they are still conducting paleoseismological research on past events.

From the point of view of quake insurance, I did a bit of research online and found that in California, only about 12% of homeowners have it as an optional extra on their home policies. (This article from Insure [dot] com confirms the 12% figure.) So, if that's the case in the state where most expect the “big one” to come along eventually, it seems unlikely that a greater percentage of residents in other states would have quake insurance.

Regarding potential losses, another of the references states the following:

A 2007 study by Risk Management Solutions looked at the potential costs of a replay of the last major quake in Southern California — the 7.9-magnitude Fort Tejon quake, which hit near Bakersfield in 1857. It found a repeat of that quake would cause $150 billion in damage to homes, businesses and industries — more than the damage cost from Hurricane Katrina— with only about $15 billion to $25 billion covered by insurance.

The above can be found in this article from USA Today, Oct 18, 2011.

Just as an addendum here, that region is where some researchers now believe a mag 8.2 quake is possible. That's twice the size of a 7.9 (in shaking) and nearly three times stronger in terms of energy release.

Now, a mag 8.0 or bigger quake in the NMSZ – or a series of them as occurred in 1811/12 – would likely also result in damage well up in the many tens of billions of dollars. (I recall the FEMA/DHS documents give such figures but I don't recall the precise number.) And only a small percentage of home owners would be insured.

On the question of whether the insurance companies could cover the claims, the answer is “probably yes” – as things stand, they should be able to. As insuring risk is their business, they would have a fair idea of what amounts they will likely have to pay out, and a decent chunk of their risk is reinsured through companies like Swiss Re anyway.

The trouble is, it's not just the damage to private homes and businesses. There would be massive damage to govt buildings, infrastructure and the like, and all of that will eventually have to be funded by the taxpayer in one way or another.

The human cost is a chilling factor. It would be very high and the FEMA estimates I recall give casualty estimates in the tens of thousands: it would exceed the toll of any major event in US domestic history.

Considering the PNW, I need to do more looking and try to find some well-researched estimates of the potential cost of a PNW mega-quake/tsunami event. The last time I checked, Japan's March 2011 event cost more than $120 billion in property damage alone, but that figure doesn't include the ongoing and massive cleanup costs for the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe, which could eventually work out more expensive than all the rest of the disaster's losses combined. Just the added costs to Japan of having to import more fossil fuels (after shutting down all their reactors for “inspections”) will eventually run into billions as well.

(Continued in next post)

reply to post by Cauliflower

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Thanks very much for your post. You raise some good points.

I'd have to agree that it's a natural tendency for us to retrospectively look for indicators and speaking personally, that's one reason I have endeavoured to refer back to my predictions here, to identify them either as "hits" or "no hits" and also (where possible) give some details about what methodology I employed. So, the thread has value in that respect as the posts are logged and untouchable by us after a fairly short time.

Another value of a thread like this is that besides specific predictions, we can also log general "feelings" and later, check back to see if there appears to be any correlation between the number of posts (and posters) and any significant quake events. There is an apparent correlation between such posts in the days prior to Japan's quake of March 11 last year, and I believe that the recent pair of mag 8 quakes (on the same day in Indonesia) might correlate as well but I haven't done any detailed analysis yet.

Simply put, some people seem able to sense quakes ahead of time. What mechanism/s may be involved are still unclear and we have various ideas about it and some are detailed within the thread, but even the specific predictions posted here at least lend support to the idea.

I'd agree that magnetic and gravitic data are useful to some for possible quake prediction. In addition -- and I expect you know all this but I'm mentioning it just for completeness -- some researchers are considering a link between anomalies in ionospheric heating (eg pre the Japan quake of last March), along with very detailed studies of highly accurate gps measurements. Some also look for links between volcanic activity and seismic activity, others consider remote triggering effects. I feel that all of these areas of study could be part of the bigger picture and for sure -- as you've suggested -- it could well be that there are researchers who have other or at least more advanced methods and technology that are not generally known or available.

In such a case, it would depend on who has it and what their motivation is. But yes, I can see that some might use such fore-knowledge of a major event to gain a finanacial advantage. In fact, if a wealthy individual or a consortium had enough funds to put into the research they could probably achieve far more in terms of predicting major quake events in a few years, than most grant-driven, paper-publishing and peer-reviewed researchers could manage in decades. In that case, they could likely make their investment pay. I can barely imagine how much money some astute investors could make if they'd gone short on Tepco and other Japanese power co. stocks, for example. I expect that billions (of $$) would not be out out the question.

Your perspective is very interesting. I think we'd be glad if you could share more of your insights.

With best regards,

Mike

reply to post by TMG333

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Hi TMG,

thanks for posting that. Good to have it logged. I have nothing specific to report myself. Some unease, but without any specific indicators I can't define any region, so in my case at least I can't offer any kind of prediction right now.

I have seen a lot of chatter on various threads about May 20 as a significant date for a major quake event. That's still a little bit far off for me to offer much of an opinion, though. (As regulars here know I rarely go more than a week out and usually limit my time window to only three to five days.) If I can narrow down a region and date (and magnitude) then I'll post.

EDIT to add: and my apologies for everyone for hogging the thread! Seems I'm the only one around right now. It's the time difference, you know, what with the world being kind of round and all...

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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Just wanted to say thank you Mike for your guidance and your contributions to this thread. When you do have the time to post, the information you provide is full of balanced information that I find puts everything into perspective. That is much appreciated and even though I don't post much (due to work and school and not much free time), I follow this thread and have learned a lot from your posts. Just wanted to say thanks!!!

reply to post by winotka

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Hope you'll feel better soon. My ears have also been ringing like crazy the past day or so. No physical reason for it, either.

reply to post by justsaying

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Thank you. I also learn a lot here -- especially from lurking on Quakewatch and other good threads. So much great info available on this site!

Okay I need to get some sleep. Early start in the morning and it's almost 10.40 pm here already.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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I don't have anything to report re: alternative methods of earthquake predictions, but I do also want to echo other's gratitude to you for your posts, here and elsewhere on the site. I find that I learn quite a bit from your contributions no matter the subject as you generally cover many things within a single post.

That being said, I do want to respond a bit to your post re: Galveston and Hurricane Ike. I live near the island (and have lived in the area my entire 43 years, so I've seen every major hurricane to come through the Gulf Coast including Alicia and Ike) and work on the east end, so I got to see first hand what you are referring to. My avatar is the memorial statue placed on Seawall blvd. that is dedicated to the 1900 hurricane and is a photo I took myself.

I will tell you also that the seawall (which was build as a result of the Great Hurricane of 1900) did very little to stop the storm surge that came around the island and flooded most of the houses that were not build up on stilts. The difference between earthquakes and hurricanes is that with a hurricane, you are generally given many days notice and our ability to track they progress and future path has become quite accurate within a few days time frame.

Local officials were urging residents to evacuate as strongly as possible (we do not have mandatory evacuations here in Texas, so people cannot be made to leave) and issuing statements along the lines of "if you choose to stay, please write your name and social security number on your arm so that your body can be easily identified."

Even with warnings of that nature, people stayed. Some even stayed on the fishing piers they resided in built out above the water and when they called 911 to come and rescue them, they were told that they were on their own as emergency responders were not going to risk their lives in the situation (this was during the height of the storm) and that the people would just have to ride out the storm and hope for the best.

The point I am making here is that no matter the seriousness of the situation, there are some who will heed no warning. Even when the danger is visible, imminent, and certainly directed at them.

Even if reliable methods for earthquake forecasting are developed, it will take quite come time before those methods are respected and acted upon. Even after such a time as people learn to understand that earthquakes can be forecast reliably, they will not necessarily act upon the information received by those forecasts. Those who choose not to listen to the authorities have no one but themselves to blame should something happen as a result of whatever disaster is being warned about.

For anyone interested in the science of Earthquake Prediction, I can recommend a couple of threads:

A Discussion on the Methodology of Earthquake Prediction: a thread I authored in response to another thread (which I will link after this) that was proven to be a hoax.

And

New ATS Member Claiming To Have Important Warning/Information. You Be The Judge... This thread indeed turned out to be a hoax, but so much interesting and real information was discovered over the course of the thread (and Mike participated in it too with the same depth of knowledge that he has become known for in every thread he involves himself with), that I think many members would be surprise to learn the contents of that thread.

Yes there is some bickering in the thread and some useless posts, but for the great majority of us who participated in a substantial manner in that thread, a tremendous amount was learned about the state of the art in regards to earthquake prediction (forecasting is probably more accurate), so if you have any interest in the topic at all this and the above-linked threads are highly recommended by me.

reply to post by jadedANDcynical

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Hello J&C,

thank you for the links to those other threads. I need to re-read a lot of the posts as there is such a volume of information there. I truly feel that some researchers are far further along in forecasting quakes than is commonly believed. There is certainly good evidence that momentum is moving in that direction, at least.

I appreciate the points you have made about the situation in Galveston. As you're there on the ground and have seen it all close up I'll accept your take on it, and I apologise for being so harsh on the authorities in respect of improving the sea wall.

From the human perspective I cannot even imagine how it must have been for the people who chose to stay put and ride the storm out, then when it was too late and they called for rescue and were told that no-one could get to them... Lord... It sends shudders through me. I feel terrible for them and what they suffered, and also for the fact that it's such a common human condition to sometimes deny real risk to our lives -- often because we fear the loss of possessions if we leave them behind, or simply because we don't perceive the reality of the risk.

Back in my younger days when I lived in Australia I spent some time as a volunteer with our Country Fire Service. From those experiences I can only back up what you said: even when people have been warned that their lives are in peril if they stay where they are, some simply refuse to leave and try to "ride it out". Or else, they wait too long and get caught on a roadway with flames all around them and nowhere to hide. Or they call the emergency number and literally scream for help as their home starts to go up in flames around them.

I have seen the results and it's the stuff of nightmares. Like burnt-out cars that have actually melted down into the tarmac of the roadway, their occupants still inside them. And other things I won't even write about. Because just writing this much brings me to tears and I can't say any more.


Sadly, this will always be the way it is. Some people will not accept their own mortality and how fragile and tenuous their hold on life really is. There is little we can do about it but try to educate them. But even so, there are thankfully many who will take heed to warnings of impending disaster. In this case, I'm talking of the approaching storm or firestorm, the onrushing flood of a swollen river, the erupting volcano that's soon to explode. Events that are close and manifestly real are the ones most likely to move people to action, and that's why -- paradoxically -- less people might react to an earthquake warning, even if the science progresses to the point where reliable forecasts can be made.

I fully agree with you that at least in the beginning, many will simply not believe what they are being told if they are warned of an impending destructive quake. They won't perceive the true import of the risk until it's too late and the quake hits. It will take some hard lessons before the majority will respond to the warnings, and then (as you say), those who don't will have no-one to blame but themselves.

Getting back to the point I made about actual versus perceived risk, this is another reason why I feel that those in positions of power should do more to improve the defences. Joe and Jane Public have little understanding of the actual risks -- and they don't need to. They have enough on their plates just managing life day to day.

It's the job of those who are charged with "serving" (and protecting) the people in respect of these risks to be aware of what's likely, and also what needs to be done. The (anti-tsunami) sea walls, escape towers, retrofitting buildings, stricter guidelines for building in areas vulnerable to liquefaction, landslides and tsunami inundation, and so on. They need to act in response to the real risk, because the average Joe and Jane won't -- and many don't have the resources even if they wanted to.

As a guesstimate I suppose it would take a decade of diligent effort to get the physical side of the PNW "defences" to the stage where they could save or at least give a fighting chance to as many people as possible.

Meanwhile, the geoseismic clock ticks on. I hope that it's a good long time yet before it sounds its dreadful knell.

Best regards,

Mike

Apologies for such a gloomy post. I feel strangely affected today. Odd way to feel on the 4th anniversary of when Kattrax OP'd this thread on May 14, 2008, but there it is.

reply to post by Olivine

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Thanks for your comments, Olivine.

Things have been a bit quiet lately. I must admit that I haven't been posting much or even studying the daily quake info as intently as I normally would. It's a busy time of year in my work at present, but even allowing for that I have found it hard to focus on the subject and dig deep for data.

All the same I've been keeping an eye on things and I'd like to make a few comments about the current situation and what could be coming up soon.

One thing that's bothering me right now is that it's been quite a while since the last mag 7 or bigger quake. In fact the last mag 7 was a 7.0 in the Gulf of California on April 12, just one day after the April 11 mag 8.4 and 8.0 events off Sumatra.

Weird, that. Two very powerful events off Sumatra (a pair of mag 8s in the same region on the same day is very, very rare indeed), then one day later a pretty solid bump down in the Gulf of Cali and then -- not a heck of a lot. Okay, there have been some mag 6-range quakes but no 7s. For about six weeks. Seeing as we average about 18 of them a year that's a fair break.

This has been discussed a bit over on the quakewatch thread (where I still lurk almost daily even if I don't post often). I think the consensus is that there is no particular "reason" why it's been so quiet lately; it's just the way our planet is sometimes.

All the same, I don't like it being so quiet. Unless something very odd has happened without our noticing, energy is still building up on fault lines all over the place at the same sort of rate it normally does, but not a whole lot is happening to release energy buildups quake-wise. Plenty of little quakes, sure. But one mag 7.0 is 100 times bigger than a mag 5.0 and it releases 1,000 times more energy. And that's what I'm talking about, because we haven't had a massive uptick in smallish quakes to "balance out" the energy of a couple of big ones.

Yes, where they had the two mag 8s, a lot of energy got released. Like, the equivalent of many tens of thousands of mag 5 quakes. (And no, I'm not exaggerating.) But that's a highly active area, with pretty fast-moving plates (up to 20 cm/year versus 5 cm/year for lots of other places), so they get more of the big events.

Leaving aside Sumatra and that region in general, it's been a little below average elsewhere. True, short-term statistics are problematic. I'm just making a slightly less than scientific observation. In other words, I'm going with my gut.

Now, while my gut says this current quiet certainly doesn't have to imply some kind of "calm before the storm" situation -- meaning it's not like everything has to suddenly all let go at once with mag 8 quakes hither and yon -- it's not unreasonable to expect there will be some activity a bit above the average before too long. A pretty big mag 7 would not surprise me in the least.

But the problem is: where?

Based on historical data alone, the possible locations would make a very long list! So instead, I'm just going to list a few that I feel are likely, and some don't even follow that data so closely anyway.

First: Peru. This has bothered me for a while. They had a decent-sized mag 6 there a couple weeks back but I'm still leery of it. I just feel it's been rather long since a bigger shaker there by the coastal regions. (Southern Peru more likely than the north.)

Second: I see the eastern border of the Tibetan Autonomous Region as a likely candidate for a destructive event. A mag 7 there is historically very unlikely but even a mid-range 6 could be quite serious.

Third: southern Italy, down near Messina. It's been over 100 years since the Messina Quake and tsunami of 1908 -- and that was a mag 7.2 event. I feel that the region could be building up to another. I know there was a tragic quake in the north of Italy but that's a different fault region entirely.

Fourth: Turkey, especially close to Istanbul. Again, it's been a long time.

Fifth and probably least likely: off Portugal. There's a subsea fault capable of very powerful jolts and it's been pretty quiet for a couple of centuries now.

None of the above are what I'd define as predictions. When I make predictions I give locations, time frames (within a matter of days), and likely magnitude. I cannot define the time frames here well enough but I want you all to know that these are the regions I am most concerned about right now. Yes, I'm concerned about the CSZ in the US Pacific Northwest, but I'm always concerned about that one as its destructive potential is horrendous.

So, what I've stated above is just to let you know where I'm watching most closely. Some other regions might be statistically more likely (eg Chile and of course Taiwan, Indonesia and the surrounding regions), but this is about what I feel, not what the stats say.

Best regards to everyone,

Mike

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