An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction, page 135

Originally posted by JustMike
People, I don't like the look of this. This is above the average sort of seismic acitivity we see in this region. As I mentioned before, I've been watching this region closely for a few days and I voiced my concerns a couple of hours ago because I saw a possible pattern developing. This new quake just makes my concerns stronger. We had a mag 5.7 up off Van Island a week ago, then an aftershock to it, then nine more quakes down the coast over the following days, another closer to the coast (mag 3.3) , then a 4.4 in Nth Cal, and now this mag 5.5.

I sincerely hope this is not a precursor to a major event but I'm frankly nervous about it.

Would be glad if members in the region could chime in.

Mike

Mike, you might want to check out TrueAmerican's thread, West Coast USA: Pay Attention, Cascadia May Be Ready to Rupture, but more specifically the post from earlier today:

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
On another note, I am seeing some things up in northern Washington State that I am not liking at all. I think there might be a quake coming soon, and maybe today. A key station is down at the moment, so I don't want to issue A2 until I can see it. But...just...umm...stay alert folks.

There has been some good info posted in that thread. I'm not going to pretend to understand it all, but from what TA & WestCoast has posted I've been able to follow along.

OiO

reply to post by OneisOne

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Thank you. I haven't checked TA's thread today but I was following it earlier. He's very good at this and worth taking note of.

I repeat that I'm very nervous about this. We can hope that things will quieten down but I'll state for the record that I have not seen a sequence of quakes quite like this in that region before. That mag 5.6 is a pretty rare ocurrence in that specific region and it's at around the assumed 20 to 30 km depth line for the subducting plate.

Other news: the mag 5.5 quake in Nth Cal has now been upgraded to a 5.6. Note that the data sheet below is not a separate quake, just an upgrade. But with quakes of this size, even an upgrade of 0.1 magnitude is significant. (The quake was first posted by USGS as a Mag 5.3, then upped to a 5.5 and now 5.6):

Magnitude 5.6 - NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
2012 February 13 21:07:02 UTC

Details
Maps
Scientific & Technical
Tsunami
Additional Info

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.6
Date-Time

Monday, February 13, 2012 at 21:07:02 UTC
Monday, February 13, 2012 at 01:07:02 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 41.153°N, 123.817°W
Depth 32.9 km (20.4 miles)
Region NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Distances

10 km (6 miles) WSW (247°) from Weitchpec, CA
28 km (17 miles) ENE (63°) from Westhaven-Moonstone, CA
29 km (18 miles) ENE (70°) from Trinidad, CA
50 km (31 miles) NE (36°) from Eureka, CA
352 km (218 miles) NW (326°) from Sacramento, CA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles); depth +/- 0.8 km (0.5 miles)
Parameters Nph= 62, Dmin=17 km, Rmss=0.17 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source

California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR

Event ID nc71734741

Source: USGS data page

reply to post by JustMike

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Think these are the foreshocks I mentioned.

Almost swooning here. Errrr, feeling is building rapidly now.

reply to post by lasertaglover

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Okay. Thanks for reporting in. Glad for it. Hope folks can stay online as you are now and report in whenever they feel the need. It's already coming up 11:30 pm where I live but I expect to be up for a while yet. Can't sleep very well when I'm like this anyway.

BTW folks, I checked out TrueAmerican's thread and as he specifically referred to Nth Washington state, I'm not sure if he meant that's where he expected the quake today or if what he's observed there could have indicated one elsewhere. The mag 5.6 quake in Nth Cal is above the same subducting plate, according to scientists' studies, so there might be a connection there. Time will tell, I guess.

Thing that bothered me most during the past week was the smaller quakes that seemed to follow the subduction line of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Nth American plate. That's why these larger ones are a worry.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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Thing that bothered me most during the past week was the smaller quakes that seemed to follow the subduction line of the Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Nth American plate. That's why these larger ones are a worry.

Right. That's the sort of thing I was poking around toward re the line of moderate quakes north of Australia and down toward Tonga.

But there's no fault that fits that line. Not even a combination of faults that fit that line, that I can see. Curious.

reply to post by BO XIAN

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Well, maybe not any one fault, but there's a fair group of plate junctions in the region. Could be related to those, I think. In any case, there was another quite big quake in the region today -- a mag 6.4 in the Solomon Islands. But this is such a tough area to monitor because it is so seismically active.

Right now my main focus is still on the US west coastal region (and up into BC, Canada). It's troublesome with what's been happening there. Also, there was a mag 5.1 in Baja California (Mexico) today, just down south of Mexicali and right by where the fault goes up from the Gulf of California to become the main southern line of the San Andreas fault system.

True, this region gets its fair share of mag 5-plus quakes -- far more than Nth Cal or Oregon do -- so it could be nothing to be overly concerned about. But all the same, this one coming hot on the heels of yesterday's Nth Cal mag 5.6 makes me wonder if things are moving all up and down the line.

If we look at maps for the west there, we have two main lines of faults to consider. There's the Cascadia Subduciton Zone (CSZ) which runs a good 1000 km plus from off Vancouver Island all the way down the WA and OR coasts until it meets up with a triple junction off Nth Cal (west of Eureka, roughly).

From there, we can trace the San Andreas Fault line from just off the coast at this junction, al the way down to where that mag 5.1 happened today. All together, these two main fault lines run about 2400 km or so, give or take a bit depending how closely you want to measure it. That's about 1500 miles. Now, while it's extremely unlikely that all of this would let go at once, a major shake in one section could, in theory, have an effect on other sections and lead to more quakes up or down the line.

In fact, it's nigh on miraculous that the west coast has gone so long without a huge quake or two. This can be seen as both very fortunate and very worriesome, because the longer it is till the next big one, the bigger it's likely to be.

I have something else to say that could relate to all this, but as it's less "scientific" I'll put it in a new post.

Mike

I have something else to say that could relate to all this, but as it's less "scientific" I'll put it in a new post.

reply to post by JustMike

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Just to clarify....

Are you going to post your non scientific theory here in this thread??? Because I want to read what your thoughts are Mike.

Thanks!!

Jenn

reply to post by MamaJ

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Hi Mama,

it's not a theory, actually. Wish I had a new one right now that might be of use!

No, the reason for placing this in a new post is because last night I had a dream of a quake and I was in it. Now, okay, some might think (with fair reason) "Oh, it's just the power of suggestion. JustMike spends all day staring at quake maps -- no wonder he dreams about quakes! "

The funny thing is, I very, very rarely dream about quakes. My mind just doesn't seem to work that way, perhaps because I spend so much time on the subject of quakes that I'm able to just process things out without needing to dream about them.

That said, here's what I recall from the dream.

I was in a city and it was very western -- tall buildings in the region, the sense of many people around, a clear sky and no hint of a tropical feel to it. It seemed like quite mild weather. Not really cold as I know cold, at least. That was the opening few seconds -- just this sense of a pretty normal, big city and a feeling of what passes for calm in that context. And there was no sense of it being a European city, with their typical mix of the very old and very new. I know that well for I live in a city that's been settled for many, many centuries, so I am used to seeing 11th century Romanesque buildings beside modern ones.

No, my feeling was this was a "new" western-style city, new in the sense of not having many older buildings, if any. I simply felt it was all relatively modern -- from my perspective of what that means.

Suddenly I had a perspective shift and I was standing below some kind of multi-level freeway overpass system -- or an interchange, maybe. I was not in a car, I was out in the open, on foot. But there were several levels of roadway above me, concrete spans supported by concrete pillars. Perhaps I was on a pedestrian walkway. I don't know. I had no sense of being in a park below or near these structures. All was concrete and tarmac.

Then, everything began shaking. The noise was incredibly loud. These structures started collapsing and I had that awful, slow-motion, running-but-getting-nowhere feeling you sometimes get in dreams. I could see huge sections of freeway crashing down and it didn't matter which way I ran or where I turned, all was chaos and noise and it was absolutely terrifying and I felt sick from the noise and movement and the horrible fear of being crushed under one of these slabs.

I don't know how long this went on. It seemed like forever. But even before the quake had ended and things had stopped falling, the dream just cut off abruptly and I awoke. I recall lying there in the darkness for quite a while, just staring at nothing while I convinced myself that it was just a nightmare -- they way we sometimes do.

I got up and went into the kitchen to get a drink of milk from the fridge and I checked the clock. The time was just after 5:15 am.

Here's the puzzling thing: quite often, if I awake from a bad dream, I'll have forgotten most of it by the time I get back to bed, or at least by the morning. It fades away or my mind blots it out or files it away too deep for my consciousness to discover. But this one is still in my head, going round and round like an endless loop movie (for those who recall loop movies from school days).

What does it mean? Hopefully nothing, but the last dream of a quake I had which was so vivid and non-forgettable and in which I felt that I was really there, was just a day or two before the huge earthquake that hit Bam, Iran on Dec 26, 2003. That quake killed tens of thousands of people and destroyed an ancient citadel there that was 2,000 years old. Again, I sensed the climate, the surroundings, everything. I knew this was not a western city and its culture was very different from mine. And again, that one troubled me deeply, especially when that quake hit the region and after looking at pictures from there I recognized the style of local housing and even road signage and so forth.

This new dream felt the same. I didn't just dream about a quake, it was as if I was really there. It was almost too real, too vivid to be just a dream.

(EDIT) Just need to mention that I had no images or feelings of a tsunami. Just a very huge, very long, and very scary quake. (End edit)

So, I'm putting it here for the record and hoping that I never need to refer to it again.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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Thank you for sharing your dream Mike.

I really hope and pray it is nothing prophetic but in this day and time I think many of us are wanting to know what will happen next as it seems everything is in such a disarray.

The day before yesterday when I saw three quakes in Utah I had a sense of urgency to keep eye on USGS. I have no idea why..but I did. When I saw the ones in Cali yesterday I had anxiety and continued refreshing the page time and time again because I sense something Big coming as well. Could we be paranoid? Sure.... but I don't think so.

This video does indeed relate to EQ's but it doesn't relate to predicting them. It is lengthy but I want to share it with you Mike. Why? Because I sincerely think what she says in this lecture is true. It gave me a feeling of sanity when I watched it because for a time now I have been thinking that I am just being over paranoid and what is really going on is just...no big deal.

Everything she states is fact and can be sought out and proven. She gives links and names and has backed up her word from a scientific point of view. I am off to work but will be home in a few hours and will check back in with you. I don't expect you to watch it right now...but please do me a favor and listen to it. Then when you are done watching please come back and tell me your thoughts as they are always valued and appreciated.

reply to post by MamaJ

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Thank you, MamaJ. I'll certainly watch that video. I also have to head off to work in a few minutes but only for a few hours, so I might have time to see some of the video this evening.

I think that for the most part, we're doing our best to balance our common, growing sense of unease against what we know to be possible, versus the frankly ignorant and extreme kinds of statements we see at times both on this site and elsewhere. Just the other day on a thread here I saw a member comment in a rather laid-back way on whether the next upcoming big quake (somewhere) might not be a mag 10.5, as if this would not be something out of the question in usual terms. This clearly indicated the member has no idea what that magnitude would actually mean, for no quake that massive has ever occurred in known human history. The nearest was a full magnitude lower, which at that scale is a huge difference in terms oif energy release.

We know that the Cascadia Subduction Zone could let go in a big way at any time. Experts in the field have stated this as a plain fact based upon their years of detailed study. They have also said that it might not let go for a long time yet, but the longer it waits the worse it is likely to be. We know this and we know that a magnitude 9-plus for the CSZ and a possible 30-metre tsunami on nearby coasts is not out of the question, as they have happened before and their results are a matter of many scientific reports and records.

What we don't know, however, is what the full impact on modern cities and infrastucture in the affected regions will be, because it's 312 years since the last big quake hit the region. The experts has theories but the best of them will admit that as those theories can only be put to the test when the big one finally comes, things could be either not as bad or could be far worse than they have hypothesized. Somne say that the high-rise buildings in Seattle will withstand a huge quake offshore, other say they might sway beyond their failure limit and collapse.

The awful thing is we won't know until it happens and that is a hard way to learn such painful lessons.

I do know this: if anyone personally feels that danger is near, they are wise to take heed of their own senses.

I guess that's what many are doing. When I see that BerkeleyGal says she has her bug-ou bag ready -- and she is a level headed and knowledgeable soul if ever I knew one -- then I take that as her saying she is not happy with the way things look. Again, it's good sense to be ready and she is, and many others are -- especially those in the small community of ATS members who follow all this and live in danger areas.

But many others have no clue and that's the problem, because when it happens, for them it will be like my dream, except they won't be able to just wake up to escape it.

Okay, I must go. Be back later. Stay safe, everyone.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike

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True, this region gets its fair share of mag 5-plus quakes -- far more than Nth Cal or Oregon do -- so it could be nothing to be overly concerned about. But all the same, this one coming hot on the heels of yesterday's Nth Cal mag 5.6 makes me wonder if things are moving all up and down the line.

INDEED.

On the North of Australia thing . . .

There's another

Magnitude 5.0 - VANUATU

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Looking at the whole region:

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Taking the line from the

Magnitude 5.1 - MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA

on the left over to the 5.0 Vanuatu . . .

or the

Magnitude 4.9 - VANUATU

seems like a reasonably coherent sequence, line, to me.

Perhaps there's another coherent vertical line beginning with:

Magnitude 5.9 - FIJI REGION

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Going down to

Magnitude 5.0 - SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS

earthquake.usgs.gov...

If one looks at the seabed . . . there does seem to be a clear line--a RIDGELINE as it were . . . vertically . . . about there.

So, more scrunching up along that line seems quite plausible, to me.

For the horizontal line--from Indonesia over to the Solomons. . . it's a lot messier . . for sure.

However, it seems to me that there's certainly a line of 'scrunched up' land masses, islands etc.

Sometimes I wonder . . . is the PLATE TECTONICS explanation all it's uhhhh CRACKED up to be?

Is it Stan Deyo and/or Hoagland who claim the earth is expanding--the sphere is getting larger? Seems preposterous. Yet . . . sometimes, I wonder.

I certainly don't think we know as much as we think we know.

Thanks for your inputs and analyses. Great stuff. Love reading it.

/my blathering
.

.

reply to post by lasertaglover

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I am having the same thing even to the point of when reading quake watched I had dry heaves. The pressure headache has been ongoing for a week building like a migraine, and pressure in the ears driving me nuts even washed out my sinuses trying to get relief. Anxious more so than I have been since before the Japan quake, feelings of impending doom, makes you think you are turning into some psycho nutbar. Unable to sleep until passing out from exhaustion at 4 am. Animals all sensitive to any sound and wanting in and out and in and out. Waves of sudden nausea, maybe I should eat some corn. Just wish I could stop this feeling that something big is going to happen and soon. Thank goodness chemo is 3 months behind me couldn't take those side effects and this at the same time.

reply to post by lasertaglover

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Hi!
I know what you mean by those feelings. Back in the 80's sometime, something came over me that I never felt before or since. It hit all of a sudden, like a wave & it was so strong I had to sit down! It felt like hundreds, maybe thousands of people had died all at the same time. I don't know why that came to mind.....probably because it was such an overwhelming sense of grief & sadness! I told my husband something awful must have just happened! I didn't want to worry him, so I told him there must have been a 'disturbance in the Force'! (Those were the Star War days!) I wish I had kept a journal so I could find the day & go back & see what might have happened then! Big quake, massacre in a foreign country? Who knows?

Feeling 'antsy' today too. But it could be partly because my aunt told me my cousin is in LA this week on business!
When I saw the quake I quick e-mailed her to find out when he was going & where. I didn't trust myself to call her & let her hear my voice in case I sounded different. And I just kind of asked in the middle of some other questions, because she knows I watch eq's! She thought I was asking because of the weather thank goodness.

Every time someone in our family goes somewhere out of the ordinary, that place has moderate, fairly uncommon quakes! (So far, moderate!) It's a little unnerving!!! Like waiting for the other shoe to drop!

Plus, we've been having internet issues since Friday. It figures! That sure doesn't help the nerves!!!

The older cat (15), looks like he's going to wink out.He's sleeping most of the time, I couldn't even see him breathing last night, I thought he was dead! Most of the time he only has his eyes open half way. I was wondering if I should call the vet. But he's eating & has no other symptoms. Then last night the young one was 'trilling' & going under the computer desk. She's been sleeping a lot too. Then when the old one went under it & laid down I thought , 'a 6'! Then I saw Japan right before I went up to bed. But he was still under the desk & wouldn't come out. He has never gone under there before! Then this morning I saw the one in the Solomons!!!

I'm beginning to wonder if they really are 'seismo cats'???!!!
I'd say, 'try to stay relaxed', but I know that's easier said than done!!!
Take care!
WOQ

6.0 off the coast of Oregon.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by justsaying

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Thank you for posting the link. To make sure we have all the data readily to hand I've copied and pasted the entire "Details" page from USGS:

Magnitude 6.0 - OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
2012 February 15 03:31:20 UTC

Versión en Español

Details
Maps
Scientific & Technical
Tsunami

Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time

Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 03:31:20 UTC
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 07:31:20 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 43.536°N, 127.381°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles)
Region OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
Distances 256 km (159 miles) W of Coos Bay, Oregon
293 km (182 miles) WSW of Newport, Oregon
302 km (187 miles) NW of Brookings, Oregon
380 km (236 miles) WSW of SALEM, Oregon
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 19.7 km (12.2 miles); depth +/- 6.2 km (3.9 miles)
Parameters NST=205, Nph=211, Dmin=282.8 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp=180°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source

Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb00080ib

Source USGS Data Page

I guess if anyone was still wondering why I've been so focused on the PNW region this past week, this latest quake helps to explain it.

People in the region, please take note of whatever is going on round you. Watch for unusual behavior in some animals, especially household pets. Listen for rumblings. Listen to you own senses, your own inner voice (if you believe in that side of our nature).

If we see another, largish quake in close to shore (closer than that Mag 6), then it's a strong indicator that the CSZ may be ready to finally let go. We can only wait, watch the maps, watch the seismos and monitor whatever reports or signals we get, both the scientific ones and the others I've mentioned above.

I tell you honestly that I have not seen a series of quake events like this in that region before. I said this a day or so ago and with this new mag 6, that goes double. This is NOT "typical" activity for the region.

It could be that things will quieten down. It's wise to keep that in mind. It's also wise to take note of the signs the earth is giving us.

Will write more later.

Mike

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