reply to post by justsaying
thanks for your post and your query. Yes, I try to maintain a balanced perspective where quakes are concerned. While this thread is about
investigating prediction methods, I always bear in mind that anything we post may be read by people who could potentially be affected.
For the prediction you referred to, I'm looking at a combination of factors. The first is what I call an "indication" and I have discussed what that
means in this context in some earlier posts on the previous page. The second is what I have been seeing on some seismos online for the region (meaning
in near-real-time), because the traces are rather puzzling.
Here is an example. It's a screen shot of two seismos I've been watching on GEE**
. The top one (or at least its Z component) is TA.W44A, which
is located in Memphis, TN. The other, with its E, N and Z components displayed***
, is TA.X41A, in a place called Bauxite, just SW of Little
GEE is the Global Earthquake Explorer, a wonderful piece of software from the University of South Carolina that lets you watch seismos
online. It's available free from their website here
I'm referring to the BHE, BHN and BHZ displays for the seismos. Simply put, the "E" displays ground movement east to west (and vice versa,
of course), the "N" is for the movement north and south, and the "Z" is for up and down (vertical) movement.
While the amplitude of these E, N and Z traces is quite small, with the movement imperceptible to humans, their density is greater than that on most
seismos. I'm trying to work out why that is. It suggests that there is quite a lot of very rapid change in movement going on (albeit in very small
amounts) and this is bothersome to me.
However, it doesn't have to mean that anything is imminent, and neither does my "indication" that I mentioned. Although "indicators" have generally
given me the best results with posted predictions, I am sometimes totally wrong. And I won't be unhappy if that turns out to be the case this time.
All the same, I feel it's better to post when I get something, rather than say nothing and later wish I had.
By the way, have you ever read Nuttli's compilation of newspaper reports from 1811/12 where witnesses describe the quakes that occurred then? It's
quite a read but well worth the time. If you don't have a copy you can get one
at the Saint Louis University website.
Meanwhile, if you observe anything unusual in your region, then please post. I'm especially interested in odd behaviour in animals, or reports from
people of strange ringing in the ears (which they can't attribute to tinnitus from normal aging), ditto reports of nausea with no known etiology, or
even anecdotal reports of feelings or unease from people who you would not normally consider to be highly impressionable or given to flights of
As for animals, any reported sightings of snakes and/or frogs out in the open would be very important, as I understand it's fairly cold there right
now and these creatures should be hibernating. (Correct me if I'm wrong in this for your region.) In terms of general observations, reports of sudden
changes in water levels in wells and/or ponds, along with any odd odors (sulfur smells especially) could be quite significant.
Best regards and many thanks,
edit on 21/1/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)