An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

wow, what a scary dream to have...

Are you guys still getting little tremblors in reno? I havent looked at any lists today and I didn't see any nevada in my usgs emails.

Tela

reply to post by Telafree


its been pretty quiet here, but active elsewhere... It just doesn't feel right to me today..... I dont have any pains or anything, just a very very strong sense of something aint right around here.....

Originally posted by kattraxx
NorthernCalifornia, 4.1

BWAHAHAHA, I was just getting ready to post this....I finally opened my earthquake map for the oregon and nevada regions and saw the big square over nor. cali.

Maybe that will ease some pressure on the faults that are to the north. Or, it's a precursor to something bigger.

Tela

reply to post by damntheptb


I hope prophetic dreams do not run in your family... I think if we were having a non-stop earthquake, I'd be out of here. Europe sounds good. France or Germany-- they don't have EQ's or hurricanes or tornados...

After the 4.9, there was a constant vibration in the ground 24/7 and it was not subtle. I know you felt it as well-- probably because we live on top of this EQ swarm. Now that was creepy. I kept imagining the two sides of the Verdi/Mogul fault just pushing and grinding against each other while we waited in dread suspense... I sincerely hope that does not start up again.

reply to post by damntheptb


It is the strangest behavior we're seeing from this Reno EQ swarm. It goes quiet, then for 24 hours it picks up substantially, then it goes quiet again.

I can't shake the feeling the "experts" know or suspect something they are not telling us.

Originally posted by damntheptb
I have to mention something i dreamed about last night, and it is the 2nd dream with the same scenerio..
I dreamed that a medium size EQ hit mogul reno area, 3.5 to 4.5 , and the rumbling kept going constant for days.... not major movement, but it just never let up... I remember seeing the tv and the newswoman said we had a medium size EQ hit 20 minutes ago, and the shaking has not stopped, and scientists are scrambling to find out why.
The 2nd dream i had last night was a day or so later, because i was reading the local paper, and the headline on the front page was
RENO STILL RUMBLING!!!
I dont remember much of anything happening outside, but i remember a lot of panic widespread, and people trying to leave to a non shaking area..

That is really very scary...Because what you describe would perhaps be potentially more damaging than one large quake that lasted for a very short time...Even resonance factors would come into play and that's the sort of thing that concerns engineers when they design bridges, for example... Never mind the psychological implications for all the people who would be affected.

The only scenario I can think of where "rumbling" could more or less last for days with little or no letup relates to volcanic activity, with perhaps ground water disturbance (meaning it gets superheated).

Let's hope your dream was not prophetic...

On a different but related matter (namely quakes), I very much appreciate any feedback on my Japan quake prediction result, which I posted on the previous page of this thread. Many thanks,

Mike

I think someone somewhere knows something that isn't being put forth.

Lots going at the Geysers as stated and Verdi-Mogul.

I'm listening to the ATS Mix Charlotte is to make a brief appearance and next weeks show is with her.

Charlotte said R-rib is like the Islands Solomons etc. Left ear China India etc. not much the big interview next week. Didn't say a thing about Bakersfield when asked and the guys forgot to check what she had to say.



[edit on 30-5-2008 by observe50]

reply to post by kattraxx

I agree...I often have the suspicion that the experts hold things back. I'm not talking of raw data so much, but theoretical concepts, hypotheses or predictions. It seems rather amazing to me that none of these highly-qualified and experienced people seem to have any reasonable explanation whatsoever as to what is causing these "swarms", and that is worrisome.

Edit to add: You say that the region goes quiet for a day or so then things pick up again...So it's like a cyclic process? Normal quakes are not cyclic in nature (within the context of shorter-term analysis I mean), so what would cause a cyclic effect? I'm really wondering if there is a ground-water factor here, or something else that is allowing "pressure" of some form to build then release through small quakes and possibly as a by-product of that movement through some other mechanism as well....and then it builds again. I know that sounds vague but I hope it still makes a modicum of sense.




[edit on 30-5-2008 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike

The only scenario I can think of where "rumbling" could last more or less last for days with little or no letup relates to volcanic activity, with perhaps ground water disturbance (meaning it gets superheated.

Remember how damntheptb described the ground motion here during 2.5 and 3.5 type EQ's as sitting on the lid of a pot of boiling water? He was right on. Every time we had a decent sized temblor, that's exactly how it felt to me as well. That last 3.2 or whatever it was, felt more like something slipped and fell a bit, with a thunk.

I will go read your previous post now, JustMike....

Originally posted by kattraxx
Remember how damntheptb described the ground motion here during 2.5 and 3.5 type EQ's as sitting on the lid of a pot of boiling water? He was right on. Every time we had a decent sized temblor, that's exactly how it felt to me as well. That last 3.2 or whatever it was, felt more like something slipped and fell a bit, with a thunk.

That is exactly the analogy I was trying to think of. My mind is just not co-operating lately. But yes: the lid on a pot of boiling water...The lid lifts, steam escapes, lid drops down...and unless the heat source is removed it can become almost constant and may eventually even boil over...

reply to post by JustMike


JustMike, could you repeat your Japan prediction or link us to it... I cannot find it. Also, you have mail.

And re: the "experts", my point exactly--

Originally posted by JustMike
Edit to add: You say that the region goes quiet for a day or so then things pick up again...So it's like a cyclic process? Normal quakes are not cyclic in nature (within the context of shorter-term analysis I mean), so what would cause a cyclic effect? I'm really wondering if there is a ground-water factor here, or something else that is allowing "pressure" of some form to build then release through small quakes and possibly as a by-product of that movement through some other mechanism as well....and then it builds again. I know that sounds vague but I hope it still makes a modicum of sense.
[edit on 30-5-2008 by JustMike]

That is why some of us have felt that this is volcanic, or geothermal in nature... With the billions of gallons of water sucked out of the desert from the mines on a daily basis, maybe we have emptied some chambers in the earth that would have cooled off or blocked the flow of magma, but now that the chambers are empty, the steam or magma is building in size and speed as it moves, causing steam bursts in "area with no active faults, yet they are constanty shaking.." Might also explain why these swarms are not behaiving like any other known swarms or sequences of quakes.

I also think that "someone" knows more than they are saying, but are afraid they might be right, and what could you possibly do if you knew that there would be an explosion or eruption, but couldnt pinpoint where? You couldnt say anything, due to panic and mass evacuations......

Anyway you look at this, it is NOT normal, and I just dont feel like this story has a happy ending...

reply to post by JustMike

Edit to add: You say that the region goes quiet for a day or so then things pick up again...So it's like a cyclic process? Normal quakes are not cyclic in nature (within the context of shorter-term analysis I mean), so what would cause a cyclic effect? I'm really wondering if there is a ground-water factor here, or something else that is allowing "pressure" of some form to build then release through small quakes and possibly as a by-product of that movement through some other mechanism as well....and then it builds again. I know that sounds vague but I hope it still makes a modicum of sense.

Reno Swarm

Notice May 28th compared to other days....

Also, I recalled, reading your post, that I wanted to mention about that constant vibration in the ground-- it felt as if it cycled up and down continuously. Did you feel that as well, damntheptb?

Adding: Nevada Hot Springs

There's one about a mile south of me, used to be a hot springs spa but is closed down. I wonder why they closed?

[edit on 5/30/08 by kattraxx]

reply to post by kattraxx


Yeah, i definitly feel the vibration...... the one thing I havent noticed lately is the "thunk" before the shakes..... still feel vibration and little shakes, but they are silent now..... completely diferent feeling than a month ago.

that is my other concern, unless yu live near the epicenters, you do not understand the way these have felt from the beginning, and how they have changed in the recent weeks... regardless of depth or magnitude, they just FEEL DIFFERENT

Originally posted by kattraxx
JustMike, could you repeat your Japan prediction or link us to it... I cannot find it. Also, you have mail.

Sure....It's back on page nine:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

And my follow-up on it is on page 12:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The latter post deals mostly with a reply to skywatcher so it wouldn't surprise me if people missed the stuff about Japan that I stuck on it at the end... Sorry about that...

Got the mail and sent a reply...Many thanks...

Mike

Edit: Just noticed that USGS has upgraded the Izu (Japan) quake from a 5.6 to a 5.7. Maybe it doesn't sound much but it's significant at that level.

[edit on 30-5-2008 by JustMike]

The 'clunk' or 'chunk' kind of earthquakes are usually the kind where a plate has shifted and you feel that.

I felt a 2.3 that was like someone had picked up the house and clunked it about an inch one way. It was one that was epicentered literally 2 miles from my house. They said that a fault line or plate had moved hence the 'clunk' or 'chunk' feeling that you get.

Im not an expert though so don't quote me

Tela

reply to post by Telafree

What you say makes good horse sense to me... Gee, I hope I have the idiom right: I mean it's good, solid sense based upon using your marbles and not just "book learning". I've got nothing against book learning, mind you...I've done my fair share of that. But often what is simplest is the right answer and the complicated stuff is just the same thing really but all dressed up...

In case anyone's wondering I grew up in the country...

reply to post by JustMike


A 5.7 is a pretty good size EQ. Good call. (What I do when I get a hit is reply to my own post wherein I made the prediction-- that way a new post comes up with the hit. We didn't see your edit back there.)

Now, how did you come to this prediction? You get physical precursor symptoms, right? And you also get "intuitive" clues, am I right?

reply to post by kattraxx

Thanks for the tip...I felt a bit funny about replying to my own post...wasn't sure of the protocol. But anyway, yes: I do get physical precursors, which fall into two categories, the purely physical like aches and pains for no good physiological reason, and I guess what we could call the empathic/emotional ones. So, they are the alarm bells, if you like, and when they rear their hydra of ugly heads then I start to take notice and basically send out a query to myself as it were and see what comes back.

Such was the case with the Japan prediction. I sat down to write about possible predictions as that was the subject being kicked around at the time and what "came through" is what I wrote. Wish I could explain it better than that but it's really an intuitive process for me. I have not yet progressed to the stage where I can identify a certain ache or pain as meaning "Oh, that indicates region such-and-such..." I know Charlotte does it but she is vastly better at this than I am and has years more experience... Perhaps I am subconsciously doing the same thing but I simply don't know. However, it seems to work. Not all the time, though.

One thing I have learned is not to analyze what "comes through" too much and discard predictions because they don't seem to fit with any perceived pattern of seismic activity. I learned that this is not a good idea...I have to state what I get first up...sort of a "full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes" kind of approach.

Just to finish this long post... I think I mentioned a while back that the mechanism by which I "pick things up" (and many others do also, I think), could well have a scientific basis but it's just something that hasn't been properly investigated/discovered yet. I'm old enough to know that I don't know much!

Mike

Edited to fix a stupid typo that left half the text in italics...Why doesn't my computer know what I want to say??

[edit on 30-5-2008 by JustMike]

Thanks, JustMike. I think I understand what you're getting at regarding the emotional cues... I have had a few of them myself. I also understand exactly what you mean about resisting the temptation to discard some predictions because they don't make "seismic" sense, so to speak. You just have to go with it and definitely try not to overthink what you get.

On that subject, I just took a few shots of some classic EQ clouds in the northwest sky right now-- oddly, only the clouds over the swarm look like horse-tails and the other clouds in the sky west and south, etc., of here, are puffy, normal-looking clouds.

Now all I have to do is figure out how to upload them onto my computer-- have never done this before.. and then get them into this thread.