An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

I am getting ringing in my ear hourly this morning. It's been loud too. I'm about 600 miles from the New Madrid. I'm going to try to see how the clouds are looking("irredescence").

reply to post by oldgoat

Hello oldgoat -- and all the other members who have joined this thread in the past few months! Great to have your input! For my side of things I must apologize for not visiting this thread for such a long time; various other matters have distracted me. However, just this morning (my time) I felt a sudden urge to check back in on this thread and I found that PuterMan had made some comments back in April on the quakewatch thread and issued an open invitation for members who wanted to talk about symptoms (meaning possible quake indicators) to come over here.

I'll email kattrax (the thread's OP) and let her know that we are getting some action here once again. I'm sure she'll also be glad for your involvement and will doubtless have some good comments to make.

As this thread is about alternative methods of earthquake prediction and is being run to gather data and observations of all kinds, pretty well anything that you feel, observe or even intuit is most welcome. And, as I said way back in this thread, the main thing is to gather data; making deductions about the validity or otherwise of various observations is something we can only effectively do when we have a fair amount of information to work with. In the meantime, at the very least we can get some idea of what sort of indicators seem to give a fair "hit rate".

Generally speaking, the scientific community that is actually involved in quake research is rather reluctant (to say the least) to even consider that quake prediction is possible. True, sites like USGS have pages that give data about quake potential in various regions, but this is purely statistical and runs along the lines of "in the [X] region, there is a 50% chance of a magnitude 7-plus quake within the next 30 years and a 20% chance of one in the next ten years." This is not quake prediction, but simply an analysis of data of past events combined with (necessarily incomplete) knowledge of the fault systems and characteristics of the region concerned. While this is useful for city planners when it comes to designing infrastructure and buildings that ought to resist these potential seismic events, it is totally useless in terms of saying what might happen in the very near future.

The primary goal of our efforts is to try and establish if there are any methods of prediction that offer a reasonable degree of accuracy in regards to location, time, and of course magnitude. Although the results so far look very promising, we do not yet have enough data to convince any hard-headed scientists that our successful predictions are not simply the result of pure chance. Granted, in some cases the odds were pretty slim -- and I recall giving data about this for a few events I predicted here -- but the more data we can accrue, the better. This is why you'll find posts where I've declared some of my predictions as "non hits", because this data is just as important as the actual "hits".

While many of the predictions in this thread relate to smaller-magnitude quakes, our ultimate objective is to be able to predict the larger magnitude events that are most likely to cause loss of life and/or severe property damage. That's what we hope to achieve. And when I say "we", I don't just mean those of us on this thread or even on ATS, but the people around the world who are engaged in achieving the same objective.

Okay, now I've got that long blurb out of the way (sorry about that!), I'd like to comment on oldgoat's post and that link to another site that has a prediction of a major California quake. The site referred to says:

EARTHQUAKE WARNING; 6.2 to 7.7 earthquake is likely in Southern California. October 6-8 (Most likely October 7)

and a little further on:

NOTE; The strong peak on September 30th produced a 4.4 earthquake in SE California (and over 150 aftershocks) but the 6.2 to 7.7 quake should happen on the next peak of October 7th. A similar situation happened before the Mexicali 7.2 earthquake. There was a strong peak on March 28th and then the earthquake actually occurred on the peak following the strong one on April 4th.

That site also has a table showing the percentage likelihood of a quake in the stated range in L.A. and San Fran Cisco. The San Fran risks are low (except for Oct 10, at 75%), but the L.A. risks are worth a look:

RISK IN LOS ANGELES;
Oct 12: 05%
Oct 11: 06% - MAP
Oct 10: 25% - MAP
Oct 09: 65% - MAP
Oct 08: 91% - MAP
Oct 07: 98% - MAP
Oct 06: 74% - MAP
Oct 05: 52% - MAP

Source for all the above quotes

Considering that the figure for Oct 7 (ie tomorrow at the time of this post) is almost 100%, we need to take note and see what the follow-up will be on that site if the quake occurs, and also if it does not occur.

I have to say that at the present time I do not have any indications at all for a major quake in the above-stated region within the next few days. In other words, I don't think it will happen. For sure, I could well be wrong but all the same I prefer to state my own opinion on the matter. Frankly I don't expect anything much over a mid-4 magnitude quake in that region is likely within the next week, but one of that magnitude is not very unusual and would not cause any problems for the locals. If you've read back through the thread you'll know that typically, I don't make predictions with a "time window" of more than 7 days, and very often it's more like 3 to 5 days. So while I have no indications for the time frame stated in those quotes above, that has no bearing on what might happen this time next week, after that time has passed.

Best regards and apologies for the lonnng post,

Mike

Mod edit: quote tags changed to external source tags.

Note for moderator/s: referring to my post (above) I should have used "external source" quotes rather than "post" quotes. If a mod wishes to fix this, please do so. I prefer not to edit the post myself because it includes what is effectively my own prediction in regards to the Southern California event that is discussed there, and if I edit the post it could be argued that I modified some of my statements in that respect. (Even though post edits are now time stamped I'd still rather leave it alone.)

Many thanks,

Mike

reply to post by lasertaglover

Thank you for your input. I'd like to ask you and also other members who've posted recently if you feel able to give any indication of a region where something may occur, and perhaps a possible magnitude range and time window. It doesn't matter if you're wrong, the most important thing is to have a go at it. It can even be based purely on gut feeling/intuition -- call it whatever you like. If anything comes from it then it's very valuable to have it recorded.

Again, for all members: even if you are fairly new to all this and perhaps only now you know that you're really not alone with the feelings you get, it's worth having a try at making predictions. Just by reading back through the thread you can get a lot of information about the hows and whys of predicting. But if you'd rather not trawl through every post in this lonnng thread , just click through its pages and choose posts that have images or maps included, as they often either relate to actual predictions or give info about various regions and what can happen there.

Also, there is a Results from Experiment in Alt. Methods of EQ Prediction thread. It's short (2 pages) and so it's far from a complete list, but if you take a look through it you'll see some of the evidence we have accumulated and the methods used to record the data. It also includes links back into this thread, so that's useful as well.

The main reason the "Results" thread is not a complete list is simply that we didn't have the time to maintain it. I expect it's something we can remedy in the future. After all, everything is still preserved in this thread.

Best regards,

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Hi JustMike, it's good to hear from you again. It's been a long time since I've checked on the thread. Summers are busy.

I have to agree with you on the 'prediction' for a major EQ in So. California within the next couple days. I'm not getting that and I think if an EQ that big were that close, I would be feeling it now. Of course, I could be wrong, but if I lived in So. California, I wouldn't be overreacting at this time. If anything changes, I'll post.

I have gone back and read some of the new posts and it does sound like a few of you are EQ sensitive. I tend to believe that most people are. My best advice would be to get a notebook and start logging everything by date, in detail, including your ear tones. Be as detailed as possible. For example, log each day, the time of your ear tone, how long it lasted, whether it was a high pitch, low pitch, middle range, etc. On headaches and various other pains, log the exact body location. For example, upper or lower back, left or right side, index finger, right temple, left knee, etc. Go to the USGS web site and subscribe to their EQ emails, and log the EQ's as well. If you're diligent, you'll begin to see patterns, ear tones and body pains matching up to places, especially in active regions.

hey JustMike and Kat I have to go back and do some reading myself.

Don't forget when you are observing also watch the skies for sundog(s) type clouds and watch the animals and insects also.

I found the gentleman who made the current prediction for a large mag S. California EQ and asked him to visit our thread and tell us about his methods.

I checked out his web site and his methods seem very interesting. I hope he accepts our invitation, as some of these methods haven't been discussed here yet.

I hope he accepts it will be interesting.

JustMike I laways like your post as I said and your right this is a good time to try and make predictions if you feel something..... this is how we learn....... maybe something will come of it.

reply to post by kattraxx


A 3.9 a bit east of the Elsinore fault just came in. This is one of the faults Luke Thomas specifically mentioned as being at risk for a large mag EQ. I'm intrigued. I'm particularly interested in his measurement of 'thermal temperature changes caused by kinetic frictional heating of the tectonic plates', as well as changes in water temperature and ultra low frequency sounds. The kinetic energy caused by the friction and pressure before an impending earthquake is what I think causes earthquake sensitives to have pain.

I've just received an email from Luke Thomas declining our invitation to discuss his methods on our thread, due to a heavy workload. At any rate, I respect his alternative methods of earthquake prediction and the fact that he puts himself out there, especially naming specific faults, dates and mags. We can relate to that.

reply to post by observe50

Hi Observe,

yes, it's good to have input from as many people as possible. I'd also agree with Kat that most people are probably sensitive to some degree. My own feeling is that very often, if we "sense" things as children that we "aren't supposed to", then we're discouraged rather than encouraged, and so a lot of our probably innate sensitivity is effectively deadened. It's still there, but just as in the case of thinking of someone for the first time in months and then the phone rings and it's that person, the usual tendency is to either put it down to "coincidence" or simply ignore the event entirely. Such is the effects of our "modern" way of life...

It's a bit of a cliche, I know, but we really need to get closer to nature, as our ancestors were and as some so-called "primitive" people still are today. (They're not primitive at all, of course. We just don't understand them very well.)

reply to post by kattraxx

Hi Kat,

I'd also like to know more about his methods. I've taken reference copies of some of the maps he's posted on his site that relate to his latest prediction, but frankly I'm not sure where or how he is sourcing his data in regards to heat measurements. If it's via some kind of satellite feeds then I'm not aware of any that would be so specific as to distinguish between the normal environmental sources (like from human habitation, land use, etc) and those that would be purely natural and apparently of a subterranean source. I'm also not sure how he establishes his probability ranges, because his figures are very precise and suggest he has a fairly substantial set of data to extrapolate from. Perhaps he'll find time to discuss this with us in more detail at a future date.

Although I've stated that I don't have any indicators for the quake he's predicted, I'd certainly like to know more -- and that applies whether his prediction turns out to be right or wrong in this particular case. As you've said, he's put it out there, so we'll have to see what comes of it.

Mike

Well, nothing happened yesterday the highest probability lets see what the next couple days brings.

I see the Aleutians is having some nice ones and BAJA Cal. small one.

My head is hurting pretty bad today above eyes and back of head don't know if that means anything I am on East Coast starting during the night....probably just the way I slept or could be coming down with something starting to get "in" body chills.

reply to post by observe50


Interesting, the type of headache you describe, Observe. This is the exact headache I had the day before the Aleutians 6.4. Started behind the eyes, then concentrated on the entire right side of my head; pretty intense.

For the record, I'm still not getting any indications for a large mag EQ in S. California. One thing I've learned in the past two and a half years-- the big ones cause a lot of discomfort and sometimes outright pain, usually a few days, at least, in advance.

reply to post by JustMike


I know, JustMike... I had about a million questions for him regarding how he gets his data. I think it's interesting, and he could be onto something, in the intial stages of research, which we well know is hit or miss. It takes courage to put a prediction out there, but better, I think, to try and miss than not put it out there at all.

Did anyone else have the right side headache before the Aleutians EQ?

I have been keeping watch on things like the new fissure that occured awhile back in Christchurch New Zealand and now the top story here about the crevice that opened up raising the ground in Michigan.

Two words go through my head, The Beginning.

First the fissures then tremors/eruptions, quakes then Tsunami's. Slow process over time.

I feel Yellowstone is more then they know and this has to happen so that doesn't.

I just hope this can be lessoned by these changes.

i was referred to this thread by carriekat because of a post i made in response to the thread"Earth Changes?Unexplained Crevice Appears in Michigan"" my head felt like it was in a microwave" as i opened your thread i was taken back by your symptoms"I will not be able to sleep, no matter how tired I am. Usually this is accompanied by anxiety/restlessness, a headache and a sense of waiting for something to happen. I get shocked getting out of my car (only around home) in the epicenter areas" all which i have had the last 3 days. my other symptoms a few day prior were severe itching of my palms and feet,ringing in my left ear, severe constipation and tooth ache! i did check usgc site link and it shows nothing for yesterday in my area on 10/07/2010. i asked if haarp had been activated but no one responded. if you know of a link to haarp activity could you please post it for me! as i write within last hour or two there was a 3-3.5 quake in arkansas. i live in port huron,mi approx.43 degrees n.,82 degrees 30' w.

i get chills when i look due west of my location in center of lake michigan. 43n 87w

I think Lake Michigan is an area that needs to be watched myself.

I keep my eyes on areas that aren't known to have quakes as a norm and yesterday Brazil had a 5 it is just not where I would expect to see one.

Since I am concerned about Brazil the tip or hump area and just offshore out to the Ridge this really has waken me a wee bit more.

I think we are in the beginning of these new fissure opening which will cause all the new changes we are to experience in the future.

I want to say I feel these have to occur because what I believe is coming will be very bad but not what it was to be.

reply to post by bluewaterservant


BlueWaterServant, would you log when you have those crazy itches in your hands and/or feet, and let us know? I've been trying to connect those to a location. I log every day, including ear tones, which also match up to specific locations.

Also, earthquake sensitives tend to have the exact same pain/symptom for a location no matter whether they live. In other words, if I live in California and you live in Chile, we will both get a right side headache for Alaska before the EQ.

To new people posting here, if you're interested in knowing more about what pains, etc., go with which locations, go back to the first post in this thread and to Charlotte King's web site, where you can email her about getting her list. I believe she charges a nominal fee to defray her costs, but it will give you a head start on matching up pains and locations.

I hadn't heard about Michigan. I'll have to check that out. Anyone have a link to the story they can post here?

Yesterday I noticed something different. First off both my ears ring loud and high pitched that's normal but yesterday my right ear had a different and irrating clear precise sound added to the normal noise when someone talked especially from the TV talk I can't even describe it really.

Don't have it today ust yesterday and I never had that before it was very unique.

Interesting thread.
I have noticed the Mediterranean has been hit hard over the last month.
I will RV it today to test my method.