posted on May, 7 2008 @ 10:32 AM
I guess it depends on what you mean by "prognostication" and whether or not you think ATS as a whole can make them.
I think certain individuals may be able to see where a trend is leading and allude to it in a post but making outright "predictions" is a fool's
I'll give a couple of examples from my own posting history.
OIL: Conditions are Ripe for another Great Depression
was written in July 2004
under the context of rising oil prices ($43/barrel).
I explained in that post that the higher the price of oil the greater the risk of financial disaster. I also "predicted" or "prognosticated" that
another great depression would be the eventual result if prices kept rising.
Here we are 4 years later and we are well underway IMO. If one understands that economic collapse is a process rather than an event then I would say I
was a good "prognosticator".
Hey buddy... Spare Some Food?
was written in August 2005
in the context of
severe droughts happening in certain parts of the world with lower crop yields.
I "prognosticated" back then (in this post and others of the time) about eventually running into higher food prices and shortages due to several
factors. Here we are three years later and it's all we hear about in the news lately.
I give these two examples (among many others I could point to by myself and other people) not to blow my own horn (I'm nothing special) but to show
that anybody who spends enough time on ATS (in forums that matter IMO), is aware of world events, understands history, understands "process vs.
event" and keeps his thumb on the pulse of the planet will be able to see things coming well in advance.
ATS may allow or facilitate "prognostication" for certain individuals but isn't a prognosticator in it's own right.