Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia

Georgia says "very close" to war with Russia

www.reuters.com

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Georgia is "very close" to a war with Russia, a Georgian minister said on Tuesday, citing Moscow's decision to send extra troops to the breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia.

"We literally have to avert war," Georgian State Minister for Issues of Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili told a news briefing during a trip to Brussels.

Asked how close to such a war the situation was, he replied: "Very close, because we know Russians very well.

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Georgia, a vital energy transit route in the Caucasus, has angered Russia by seeking membership of NATO.

If Georgia is accepted into NATO could this be a catastrophic war event? Would the other members of NATO react to a Russian attack?

Or is this attack by Russia just to ensure that NATO does not even consider allowing a nation that is at war into their alliance.

I am very sketchy as to the details of the Russian/Georgian feud, so if someone could help with some extra background information that would be helpful to myself and other members.

www.reuters.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

I dont understand the foolishness..

Why on earth would georgia go against Russia?

Its like a few dozen flies suiting up against a human..

There wont be a war, not between these two.

A lot of empty threats?
Perhaps a explosion on a bus,or cafe here or there?

.... another case of '' we had to destroy the terrorists ''

Amazing how so many countries beleive terrorists are the reason these days.

What exactly is Georgia supposed to do? Anther country's troops are on it's territory without being invited...

I doubt the U.S. will sit idly by on this one though, the Georgians know this and the Russians know it too. Hopefully someone with a level head in Moscow will back down and not call the bluff (or lack there of).

reply to post by SilentShadow


The conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia is about as complicated as that of Kosovo. The entire Caucasus region is made up of small tribe-like ethnicities (Chechens, Ossetins, Abkhaz, Dagestanis, Ingush, etc.) which have throughout history been aggressively opposed to any sort of overrule by large empires/nations. In addition to this they have constantly been at war with each other. The minor conflicts date from the Russian Empire. Only during Soviet times have the ethnic minorities been forced to get along with each other - and it worked up until 1991.

This current strife between Georgia and Russia is mostly about Abkhazia, a region populated by one of these ethnical minorities. During Soviet era the ethnical regions throughout the USSR were given a large degree of autonomy, within the Communist political sphere of course. Abkhazia was one of these regions. When Georgia declared independence in early 90's, it decided to strip all of the ethnical regions of their autonomy status, and make the entire country strictly subject to Georgian laws, language, and everything else.

Needless to say regions like Ablhazia and South Ossetia weren't thrilled, and an escalation of ethnical violance led to a bloody war, especially bloody in Abkhazia. The Abkhaz fighters with assistance from other Caucasus minorities largely defeated the weak and demoralized Georgian troops (with Russia's military support according to some sources), and then proceeded to ethnically cleanse the region of Georgians. To end the ethnical cleansing and violance Russia brough in peace keepers, who remain in the area.



Even since then Georgia has been bitter at Russia, and has been wanting revenge on Abkhaz separatists. The new pro-US president Saakashvili has been particularly eager to renew the fighting. Georgians got mercilessly slaughtered there in the 90's. Needless to say that if Georgia decides to retake the province by force, it will be very very bloody. If Georgia prevails, it is very likely to ethnically cleanse Abkhazians. If Abkhazia wins, they could renew violance against local Georgian civilians. So far the "peace" is held together by thin threads. That is a basic summary.



As for Russia - it is not interested in a war with Georgia, nor in invading Georgia or making Abkhazia part of Russia. Russia had plenty of chances to do all this, but never did. Russia wants the regions to remain de-facto independent, and wants the status que to remain. It is rather Georgia that has been escalating military preparation for what some foresee as an invasion of Abkhazia.

Russia is simply trying to prevent Georgia from attacking Abkhazia, because a new conflict there will be bad news for everyone - it could spread the violence in Russia's side of the border with its own separatists.

Again - Russia has no intention to invade Georgia. It doesn't need Georgia - a poor country with no natural resources. Russia has everything it needs - land, oil, and a booming economy.


And NATO is not getting involved. The status of the separatist provinces and Georgia's unstable government are the reasons why NATO did not extend Georgia an invitation to join. NATO does not need Georgia, because that is one mess outsiders really should not get involved in. Same goes for US - it should stay out if it knows what is good for it. A lesson in history - never get involved in Caucasus affairs unless you want to parttake in lots of pointless bloodshed.



If - and that is still an if - war breaks out, you will see a very bloody, pointless and drawn out conflict. But it will be an isolated regional conflict. U.S. and other outsiders would be left to talk and criticize and watch, nothing more. But the U.S. backed Saakashvili is really a pain in everyone's ass, and he is the reason this moronic charade is getting renewed.

Originally posted by blackbox
What exactly is Georgia supposed to do? Anther country's troops are on it's territory without being invited...

Tell that to NATO troops in Kosovo and US troops in Iraq.

Russia's small contingent (no more than a few hundred lightly armed soldiers) in Abkhazia is there for peacekeeping reasons, as has been confirmed by the UN observers. The only reason why Russia does not want to withdraw the peacekeepers completely is because an attack on the province by Georgia would be almost guaranteed. And this will not be a careful invasion - it will most likely be an outright slaughter by whatever side wins.

Russia is but a bystander and a major stakeholder as a neighboring country.

Originally posted by blackbox
I doubt the U.S. will sit idly by on this one though

And what will U.S. do? Start a third simultaneous and pointless war? And what exactly may I ask is the U.S.'s interest there anyway? Hasn't U.S. got enough of the world to worry about policing.

For one thing U.S. known nothing about the details of the conflict and the sentiments of all sides involved. If it did it would know better than to get involved in Caucasus. When those hot-headed ethnicities start to fight it doesn't end untill there is nothing to fight for but a puddle of blood. U.S. will not scare Abkhaz separatists - they will fight with same vigor as Chechens who fought the Russians.

Originally posted by blackbox
Hopefully someone with a level head in Moscow will back down and not call the bluff (or lack there of).

What does Moscow have to do with it? It is Saakashvilli who is craving to retake Abhazia, and has been preparing his troops for the last 4 years. Georgia the one who decides what to do now. Russia's moves are reactionary - Russia is not even planning any direct military involvement should Georgia invade Abkhazia.

Very informative and I thank you for the information. I obviously do not know as much about the regional intricacies as you do and humbly retract my stance. I think my skeptical outlook on Russian motives could be influenced by rhetoric from years past and I would like to learn more about this seemingly volatile region if you have any links to some additional information?

Thank you again for explaining some of what's going on.