Open letter to ATS'ers:
It's a funny thing. A few months ago just about every post on recent posting board was about how the American economy is going to hell in a hand
basket. Where is everyone????? Why did you all stop posting how the rest of the world was going to kick our ass into oblivian?
I posted a few weeks ago with this:
I got some pretty good and pretty bad feed back for and against that post, but some of the U2U's were a little mean.
I just want everyone to realize that America is not going broke. I am not so sure about some other places around the world. I know things are
getting tough in places in Europe right now. And alot of that has to do with the high rate of the EURO over there. You might not realize it now, but
its the EURO thats causing some of those problems. Look at Germany for example, they have the largest economy in Europe and they are struggling
severely right now. WHY? they do their business in EURO's, making their goods extremely expensive making it very hard to compete. Thats one nation
that would do better to get rid of the EURO and bring back the German Mark. At least they could have some control over their own currency allowing
them to compete better in the world. I posted something about it here:
That thread actually went no where, I would ask you to reconsider the idea.
I have said repeatedly that when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold. I am not saying your going to get sick and die, but don;t be so
quick to think your all better off than us. We have a tremendously strong economy here thanks to the rest of you buying our goods, and we thank you
all for that. What our problem right now is our domestic markets. As far as I am concerned we have been in a consumer recession since December.
There is actually no such thing as a consumer recession, but thats what I would label it. This is a tough thing to point to, as a recession is
defined by certain exact data. Data that does not yet point to a recession. That data is slightly off as it does not define itself correctly. If
you examine the recent GDP number we actually had negative growth, but it was actually positive due to increased costs of the goods it measures.
So....no recession. Thats what wrong with government figures...they mean nothing to me. I would rather go to the store and count the people walking
in, then counting the people who actually purchase goods. Watch who buys with cash and who with credit.
For the last 6 months the US have been importing inflation, thanks to our sagging dollar. We have been EXPORTING our recession. I am sorry about
that, but thats what happens in times like this. AND since you are all exposed to the American economy either by buying our goods or selling goods to
us, its bound to happen. Well, our dollar has bottomed and is slowly creeping back up. We might not get back to parity right away, but with our
recession slowly leaking to all countries around the world right now, don;t be surprised if it happens around this time in 2009.
If our economy does again stall..we will then see the second stage of a prolonged recession, the corporate recession. This will be brought about by
the growing recession around the world and the failure of the US consumer to climb out of their hole. That will finally show up in the GDP numbers.
If that happens it will be a long cold winter around the world, not just here. I do not believe this will happen and I thank the rest of the world
for that. You have been greatfuly supporting our largest companies, making them foreign companies within our own borders. Over the last 2 years,
companies like Hewlett Packard, IBM, GE, United Technologies..... have seen 60%+ of their revenues come from over sees. You have saved our largest
companies from feeling the recession like environment you would think was crushing all companies the way you all boasted in here. Now, these
companies can turn and benefit from selling again to the likes of American Companies and companies and consumers from around the world. All the time,
you will see some of those companies hurt by our recent woes also making comebacks.
Do not fear, we are Americans and we will do our best to support your companies in the coming times of need. As your currencies will be coming down
in value, we can use our strengthening dollar to buy your goods as they will once again become more competitive here. We will support you as you
supported us, well maybe not how you supported us on the boards of ATS, but how you supported us with your pocket books and wallets.
I am sure a lot of you will be out there ready to flame me for my views here, but I am going to let the process work out. So should you. Wait a few
months. IF I am wrong come back on here and shout me down. Call me out on what I say and I will admit it and APOLOGIZE for being wrong. For now,
just look around you and realize...things are not that bad any more here. AND THEY WILL NOT STAY BAD WHRE YOU ARE, if your over seas.
You can yell and scream about China all you want, but I have tons of dealing s with Chinese companies in my business (not what my name implies
either). I am in risk managment now and deal with a lot of importing and exporting of goods around the world. I get the books for Chinese companies
all the time as they are our trading partners. I don;t believe half of whats written in their financials and believe even less of what their CEO's
tell me. I am a firm believer that if their accounting standards were half as stringent as they are in the US, half of their companies would make
Enron look like small potatoes.
Well, I hope you all have a good day or night (depending where you are), and please continue to buy American. We will return the favor.
Time for bed.