Slight update -

Frank and I are working these discrepancies out through email.
I will update the thread once Frank and I have figured this out as best we can.

Mr. Warren has my utmost respect as an investigator (for those who don't know him) and I'm confident that between the two of us we can come up with our answers.

-WFA

By the way Late Apexer, I'm not sure I had a chance to compliment you on your tremendous work here. You're simply the best!

Hey LA and WFA. No worries here! I know that you will get it worked out, you both have an amazing ability to get things done, so we will patiently wait for your updates.

Rush

Hi snookhums

Originally posted by snookhums

Originally posted by Frank Warren

Moreover the hoaxer said his flares weighed "178" grams; additionally, in the 2 videos I watched of him, he never said how big his balloons were, (although the reporter injected a size). He did indicate that "he filled them" which would mean he could add as much helium as necessary or until they popped).

All in all, I'm sorry to say the experiment is flawed, as is the result.

Cheers,
Frank

You fail to remember that if indeed he did state 178 grams for the flare that doesn't allow enough burn time. The neighbor Lino stated he watched the flares for 30 minutes, others stated for at least 15 minutes. The flare that was tested was a 15 minute flare which weighed almost twice the amount. So if his neighbor stated 30 minute burn times then this so called hoax still doesn't add up.

Orion makes a 15 minute flare that weighs 190 grams (weight including the case it ships in); after subtracting the weight of the case [box] and doing the same for the igniter end cap, methinks you're going to be very close to, or right at 178 grams (allowing also for =/- errors in respective scales.

Burn times will increase as the flare/balloon rises in altitude. (Less oxygen).

Omitting that for a moment, since we're dealing with an anecdote, "the first" test is to prove or disprove what he "claimed he did." This mean it's paramount any test use a 178 gram weight.

Cheers,
Frank

Witness. Great job! And great job to you too Late. I'm glad to see that we've gotten a response so soon from one of the addressees.

Please, let me know if I can be of help for anything. And witness, I'm working out at USC for the next week or two so if you are anywhere near, maybe we can meet up.

Hi LateApexer313,

Originally posted by LateApexer313
Holy Smoke-O-lies !! Frank...I have faith in WitnessFromAFar, completely.

As do I.

He's mathematically correct (I had a mechanical engineer check the math to make sure, no offense Witness, just covering all the bases) and of the utmost integrity, he would never skew the results. This meant too much to all of us following and investigating the facts on this thread.

I am only after the truth...and I would like to know, how you come up with your measurements?

His math is based on a a 3' diameter balloon which has a "definitive" amount of helium in it--the balloon is substantially less then 3'.

If you look at the "inside pic" of the balloon against the cinder block you can see they don't encompass two lengths 32". In fact since the balloon is not against the wall, it actually appears larger then it really is, as it's closer to the camera.

Excuse me for coming to the party late, and I apologize if this has already been brought up; however, if you'll notice your balloon is up against a "cinder block wall," which measure 8" X 8" X 16"; in the picture it doesn't encompass "2" blocks; I' going to guess that that the balloon is about 29" in diameter, substantially smaller then 36," and not enough helium to lift the flare in this experiment.

I am sure Witness will measure these cinder blocks for us if it comes down to this? But I am curious as to how you got your precise measurements of these cinder blocks being 8" X 8" X 16"? I am simply an English major here and the math escapes me, especially, how you can tell from a photo how large the cinder blocks are?

I have laid thousands of them in my youth; actually you can subtract another 1/2 inch off of that since that includes a mortar joint.

If we have flawed data here, I want and will pay for the whole thing to be done again for sure. I certainly, at this late date, don't want to have just sent out flawed information to every media outlet between here and the Antarctic!

The most important thing is the perp says he used flares that weigh 178 grams; the first test has to be done at that weight.

Moreover the hoaxer said his flares weighed "178" grams; additionally, in the 2 videos I watched of him, he never said how big his balloons were, (although the reporter injected a size). He did indicate that "he filled them" which would mean he could add as much helium as necessary or until they popped).

The alleged hoaxer gestured and measured the width of the balloons with his hands, and the "witness" stated an estimate, gestured with his hands as well, perhaps you're getting the 2 confused or I didn't site all of the interview footage?

I watched the video again (for the umpteenth time) and I see no place where he uses his hands to "indicate the size of the balloons"; however, the reporter injects 3' and the perp answers in the affirmative.

I will go back and check that, there were so many interviews, especially with Lino Mailo...meanwhile, thanks for posting these things and alerting us all...I would never knowingly send out flawed data in an investigation like this.

Cherie/Late

Of that I am sure. On average a 36" balloon can lift almost 12 ounces, or 340 grams, more then enough for the alleged 178 grams as said by the perp.

Going to u2u you since you're still on Frank, seriously, walk me step by step how you determined the balloon wasn't 36 inches according to your measurement of the cinder blocks and how you arrived at their measurements or I will never get so sleep!

By the way my computer's on all the time during my waking hours, so if I appear to be here I may in fact not not be. (So I'm not ignoring anyone).

Cheers,
Frank

Morning all

Ahhhh well, back to the drawing board I guess. Thanks Frank for pointing all of this out, crushing to my enthusiasm though it is lol...a valuable lesson learned I guess

I am on my way to work so I will post later on when I get home! Witness if you're going to do another experiment in a week or two or whenever...well I will get with you later about it...thinking maybe I should do one here as well, anyway good job everyone on everything.

[edit on 21-5-2008 by LateApexer313]

Hello everyone.

Thanks Frank for coming and updating, I had zero time last night after we'd finished our discussions.

Today I'd like to take a moment to talk about what specifically happened to fault the last experiment.

Frank and I (independently) had done basically the same research on the flares online, and we both came to the same conclusion about which flare was most likely the one used. That flare is made by Orion, and has a 15 minute burn time.

Essentially, what we believe the problem to be, is that when I went out and physically purchased this product, I bought a 'new' flare from Kragen Auto Parts, but it was actually produced (manufactured) in September of 2004 (It said so on the side of the flare).

Our current theory is that the flare I purchased (that weighed in at 363 grams or .8 lbs) is made differently (perhaps a different, lighter fuel or casing) than the same product that is made now in 2008.

This would explain the discrepancy in the listed weight (online) which Frank was able to confirm directly with Orion.

I'll be in touch with Orion also today, now that we've developed our theory on where the experiment went wrong, and I'll be asking them specifically about the observed difference in weight between the 2004 and 2008 products, and I'll be purchasing a 2008 flare as soon as possible to weigh it for independent verification.

While Frank is indeed correct that the weight must be as the alleged hoaxer claimed, we must first prove that a flare exists at that weight (otherwise the guy is lying). It does look from the math Frank and I worked out yesterday, that Orion's current model flare weighs significantly less. I'll update when I have a confirmation from the manufacturer that this was the problem.


As for the Balloon used in the experiment, it's size, etc. Frank is right about the cinder block size, and actually it's only a 1/4 mortar on each side of the brick in that wall, cinder blocks are all the same size.

I also recovered the 'plastic cap' that was from the end of the flare (you remove it when lighting the flare). So I can weigh that today in the afternoon sometime, and I'll post that info here too.

The Balloon I used was rated at 36" diameter by the manufacturer, and filled to maximum capacity by the store. But that doesn't necessarily mean it was actually 36". I should have measured it, and I took their word for it. Also, it seemed huge to me in person, and filled up the back of my car so I have to say in my defense that I didn't really think to double check the diameter.

Okay, so that's the short explanation I think of what happened.
In the interest of full disclosure, LateApexer has the contents of the entire series of emails between Frank and I yesterday, where we worked all of this out.

A weight discrepancy between the same product from two different years (the road flare from Orion) is hardly a case of anyone intentionally skewing the data (for the record). Now that we're aware of how to do a better experiment, I think that one is called for. Late Apexer and I are both interested in the truth here, and we should follow where the evidence leads.

To be honest, I'm kind of excited in a way at the prospect that this hoax might be possible after all (now in 2008). If that's truly what we're seeing in this footage, and if we can do a safe recreation where we can verify it with comparison video, then we'll have good data to use for comparisons with other sightings in the future. We'll have a guidestick or measure for judging future video against, where Balloon/Flare systems are the claimed mechanism.

Also if the weight issue does turn out to be our problem here, then we've sort of accidentally proven that this alleged hoax couldn't have been accomplished back in 2004 or prior (including 1997, the original Phoenix Lights Event, and several other UFO events worldwide where the Balloon/Flare theory has been proposed).

But at this point in the investigation into this present case, I'm at the 'wait and see' stage. I'll let everyone know as soon as I've heard directly from Orion about the weight issue.

-WFA

Okay, the mystery deepens...

I just got off of the phone with Orion, and the lady was very nice and cooperative.

She claims that the flares were made exactly the same way in 2004 as they are now in 2008, and that the weight should be the same.

She said that the weight of just the flare, without the packaging is supposed to be: 185.97 grams (she did the conversion math while I was on the phone with her, very smart girl).

So there is really only two possibilities here, as I see it:

1) I purchased a flare that had somehow been damaged, waterlogged, or something to add significant weight to it.

2) Orion is wrong about the flare's actual weight.

I'm betting it's #1, but I'm going to find out for certain.
As I have time over the next day or so, I'll be purchasing some more of these Orion 15 minute flares. If I can find them, I'll purchase one made in every year from 2004-2008 (no guarantee I can find them, but I'll look).

Then I'll weigh them all on the postal scale here at work, and then re-weigh them on another scale (I'll have to locate one, but perhaps if I'm quick and sneaky I can use a scale at a supermarket...)

I think that's the only way to get to the bottom of this, and to know for certain what the weight of these things is...

If there are thoughts or suggestions please post them and I'll factor them into this experiment.

-WFA

[edit on 21-5-2008 by WitnessFromAfar]

Mornin' WFA

Originally posted by WitnessFromAfar
Okay, the mystery deepens...

I say it's becoming clearer. ;>)

I just got off of the phone with Orion, and the lady was very nice and cooperative.

She claims that the flares were made exactly the same way in 2004 as they are now in 2008, and that the weight should be the same.

She said that the weight of just the flare, without the packaging is supposed to be: 185.97 grams (she did the conversion math while I was on the phone with her, very smart girl).

Now subtract the end-cap igniter, and I'l wager we're either at, or very close to 178.

So there is really only two possibilities here, as I see it:

1) I purchased a flare that had somehow been damaged, waterlogged, or something to add significant weight to it.

2) Orion is wrong about the flare's actual weight.

I'll take door no. # 2 I'll bet they were heavier a few years ago, and she's just not aware it.

I'm betting it's #1, but I'm going to find out for certain.
As I have time over the next day or so, I'll be purchasing some more of these Orion 15 minute flares. If I can find them, I'll purchase one made in every year from 2004-2008 (no guarantee I can find them, but I'll look).

Then I'll weigh them all on the postal scale here at work, and then re-weigh them on another scale (I'll have to locate one, but perhaps if I'm quick and sneaky I can use a scale at a supermarket...)

I think that's the only way to get to the bottom of this, and to know for certain what the weight of these things is...

Let's not forget that they also have "lighter flares" although not "15 minutes."

If there are thoughts or suggestions please post them and I'll factor them into this experiment.

-WFA

One thought: after you verify that it'll fly, perhaps you could use a "light" tether, and then distance yourself in order to get shot of the flare lit and in the air . . . a "fishing pole" perhaps, so the flare/balloon doesn't get away.

Presumably one could get a "little" altitude before the "weight of the line became a factor."

Cheers,
Frank

Originally posted by Frank Warren
I'll take door no. # 2 I'll bet they were heavier a few years ago, and she's just not aware it.

That's entirely possible, I hope that buying a model from each year and doing a comparison will solve that mystery This will probably take a few days, I'll keep everyone posted.

Originally posted by Frank Warren
One thought: after you verify that it'll fly, perhaps you could use a "light" tether, and then distance yourself in order to get shot of the flare lit and in the air . . . a "fishing pole" perhaps, so the flare/balloon doesn't get away.

Presumably one could get a "little" altitude before the "weight of the line became a factor."

Exactly Frank. If there is that much 'lift' to spare, certainly we can make a light tether. It will allow us to test many aspects of this case at once.

By the by, I've weighed the end cap, the plastic piece that comes off the flare right before you light it. It weighs less than .1 lb on the postal scale.

At my night job, we've got a better scale for small weights, that measures in grams, that we use for wet/dry weight counting of cultures. I'll weigh it on that scale tonight and get an exact reading.

-WFA

Hello Everyone,

I know that there are a lot of people following this thread, so I thought I would come back and give a short update.

I didn't get to weigh the plastic cap last night, because the person who operates the scale wasn't at work (and he is very interested in this thread also, through what I've told him, he was there for the first balloon test).

He will be there tonight, so I'll weigh it then. It's his scale, and it's used daily for Science, so out of respect for his equipment (and wish to participate) I thought it best to wait.

I will post the weight of the end cap tonight before I leave town for the weekend tomorrow.

That being said, I'll be out of town for the Memorial Day Weekend, and won't likely have another chance (after the update tonight) to post again until next Tuesday.

I just want to make it clear that even though there will be a delay, I'm still on this case and I'll be collecting the road flares for weighing as I have time over the long weekend.

Thanks to everyone who has been working on this case, both publicly here in the thread and behind the scenes. More to come later this evening...

-WFA