Originally posted by reluctantpawn
I am sure that there are many readers out here that are monitoring this thread just as I am. I for one am waiting to see how things unfold. So far I am all ears with little to criticize.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

I think Prawn is on the mark. So far, we're not seeing anything that most people would say is "impossible."

Well, its not so much criticism, but rather a look at the themes and trends that are present. Trends are very important when it coems to predicting the nature of warfare of the future.

Originally posted by sweatmonicaIdo
Well, its not so much criticism, but rather a look at the themes and trends that are present. Trends are very important when it coems to predicting the nature of warfare of the future.

That's really all any of us can hope to do, here on ATS. The hardest part is keeping up wit hthe demand for new material.

Here is part 3C (I think, I might lose track). Again, if you can't comment on the war studies portion of this futurism, instead constantly visualize YOUR place in all of this. That is, where will you be when each of these events occur and what your true-to-life reactions will be when these events take place. You don't have to put them into a post, but most certainly do think about them and vizualize it. Do you all think you can make it through 2009, if this is the way it will turn out?

Continuing on Christmas, December 25, 2009:

President Obama delivers a statement from the Oval Office, declaring December 26 a national day of mourning. As a result, all businesses and Wall Street will be closed for an extra day and all throughout the weekend. He calls the attack a “despicable act” and pledges to keep a military force in Saudi Arabia, much to the dismay of many Americans. Obama admits the country “has never been worse off,” but urges them to try to appreciate the things in their lives that are going well (such as having avoided World War III on numerous occasions) and to make some attempt to celebrate Christmas. He ends his speech with good wishes:

“Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and may God always bless America.”

Meanwhile, Pope Benedict XVI performs Christmas Mass at the Vatican, but the air is extremely heavy with reverence and sorrow. With thousands in attendance and millions watching around the world, the Pope looks skyward and confesses “the sins of six billion people” and asks the Lord for forgiveness and mercy and asks that “He would spare the world from further bloodshed and harm.” It certainly is a Christmas like no other.

1230 EST, Friday, December 25, 2009: A ten-minute video is released by Khalid al-Aziz praising the attack on Ras Tanura and the U.S. troops, calling the attack a success and stating “the best is yet to come.” He talks about the price the U.S. and the rest of the West continue to pay for their constant meddling in the Middle East and if they do not get the message now, they will never get it. On a day of religious celebration, he ends the video with “Allahu Akbar!”

2359 EST, Friday, December 25, 2009: What will go down in history as “The Nightmare on Christmas” finally comes to an end. The body count has stabilized, but it is still very high. The damage to Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure is extensive and it is clear the insurgency has won a major victory. All the people of the world can do is hope this was not the last Christmas.

Saturday, December 26, 2009: The Secretary of Defense expresses concern over the availability of fuel for the military the attack on Iran if ordered. Obama assures the Secretary of Defense that if military action is approved, the armed forces will have whatever it needs to carry out its mission. The military is not optimistic about the overall logistical situation, however. The uncertainty of fuel supplies is at the top of the list, but analysts and planners also remind both SECDEF and the JCS of a perilous shortage of spare parts and munitions. Whether or not this logistical crisis will be cataclysmic rides on how quickly and decisively the Coalition achieves victory against Iran.

Realizing he has very little time left to continue hemming and hawing about the situation, President Obama orders the Fleet Response Plan to be activated in full and in secrecy. The Enterprise strike group, which is already patrolling the Persian Gulf, is to be joined by five more carriers within the next ninety days. The George Washington (CVN-73) strike group, currently in the Indian Ocean near Diego Garcia, sets course for the Gulf of Oman. The Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) strike group prepares to enter the Red Sea via the Suez Canal. The Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) strike groups prepare to depart NS Norfolk, VA. Finally, the Nimitz (CVN-68), which has just completed an exercise near the Midway Islands (where it encountered UFOs), is ordered back to Pearl Harbor, where it will take on supplies and by early afternoon Sunday, she and her strike group is steaming west at flank speed for the Gulf. This would give the U.S. and the Coalition six carrier strike groups to attack Iran with. The Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) and Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) are also being prepped to deploy within ninety days, if needed.

Later in the day, Obama issues a directive to the U.S. Department of State to have all U.S. nationals in Saudi Arabia leave the country immediately. The State Department encourages both Americans and other citizens of the world to either leave the country and/or not to travel to Saudi Arabia for any reason. Rumors are abound in the press that U.S. troops will, contrary to initial statements, be in fact withdrawn shortly thereafter, but the White House refuses to comment on the matter.

0128 EST, Sunday, December 27, 2009: A series of mysterious lights are seen in the night sky all over Oahu, Hawaii, mainly in the area of Honolulu. Operational security (OPSEC) becomes a major concern as a result of these sightings, particulary with the Nimitz encountering UFOs a few days earlier.

0550 EST, Sunday, December 27, 2009: President Obama is woken up early by White House staff to the news that the South Korean government has just apprehended four agents of a North Korean sleeper cell in Seoul. Throughout the day in South Korea, intelligence and law enforcement agencies had been scrambling when they received intelligence of a sleeper cell about to go active for reasons unknown. Entire city blocks were cordoned off, the subway system shut down, all in a desperate attempt to find the agents.

In yet another emergency meeting with the NSC, the C.I.A. advises that this sleeper cell may have been part of a larger operation aimed at attacking or destabilizing the south. Out of fears of a North Korean incursion, the NSC agrees that measures must be taken to counter any attempt by the north to exploit this moment of chaos or any operation that may be ongoing at the time.

This presents a challenging situation for the NSC, however. With six carriers committed to the Gulf and two still ninety days from deployment, a limited amount of forces are availiable for deployment to Korea. Whatever units are deployed to the region will quite possibly have to deal with any contingency, large or small, on their own until the Iran crisis is resolved. Obama decides, with the military still at DEFCON 3 from the days earlier, to order the Carl Vinson (CVN-70) CVSG, currently at a port-of-call in Perth, Australia, to set sail immediately to the East China Sea, just south of the Korean Peninsula. Various media outlets speculate the warships of the task force have been armed with tactical nuclear weapons for use in case the North Koreans invade the south. In addition to the carrier, two E-3C Sentry AWACS planes of the 963rd Airborne Air Control Squadron from Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, are directed to deploy to Osan Air Base, Korea to provide better surveillance of North Korean airspace.

0930 EST, Monday, December 28, 2009: Wall Street reopens for business with an implosion. With plunging stocks and gas prices peaking at $8, along with renewed fears of a major global conflict with the addition of the Korean crisis, President Obama authorizes the release of a portion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. By the end of the day, there is a 50 cent drop in prices, but this is clearly not much relief.

Monday, December 28, 2009 - Thursday, December 31, 2009: The last few days of 2009 are thankfully quiet, although world tensions have not relaxed one bit. The Truman strike group arrives on-station in the Red Sea, while the Washington group joins the Enterprise in the Persian Gulf. The Nimitz continues on its way to the Gulf, while Vinson begins patrolling the East China Sea. U.S. troops continue to slowly pull out of Iraq, while others take their place in Iraq and Kuwait in preparation for a move into Khuzestan.

On New Year's Eve, for the first time 1903, the ball will not drop. In fact, all New Year's Eve festivities from New York to Los Angeles are canceled this time around, citing security concerns and the realization the country is not in the mood for a New Year's celebration. Instead, as they did for Thanksgiving and Christmas, people once again stay at home, shivering in the cold, with friends and family, watching television programs that conduct a year in review. And what a year 2009 has been! One program focuses specifically on Obama's first year in office, concluding that Obama has dealt with more crises and trials in a single year than have most presidents throughout all of their term(s). Some cite concerns about burn-out, while others make comparisons between Obama and Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Jimmy Carter.

The review of the year's music and pop culture takes a back seat to domestic and international events, from the tanking economy, unaffordable gas prices, attempted nuclear terrorism, the impending war with Iran, coming within thirty seconds of nuclear war with China, severe widespread civil disorder, the slow withdrawal from Iraq, the Saudi Arabian insurgency's warpath, social upheaval, and now the beginnings of a crisis in Korea.

As the clock strikes twelve, Keith Olbermann, in his "Year in Review" edition of "Countdown," ends his Special Comment with what has become a well-known fact and a wish:

"And so, the worst year of our lives has finally come to an end. We can only hope and pray the years to come will never force upon us the trials and tribulations we have endured for the past 365 days. Yet, in a bittersweet ironic manner, our endurance may have revealed a side to us we can all be proud of. A side of faith, a side of strength, a side that said 'this is not over. We will make it through the night.'" I pray indeed, that we have made it through the night."

"Good night, good luck, and Happy New Year."

[edit on 22-6-2008 by sweatmonicaIdo]

From a family point of view I would be rying to convince my now grown son to stay home and not go to college unless it is at a local level. We would be finalizing our options to move even farther out from the urban areas and planning our spring garden. Bicycles would become a prevalent form of transportation to the dwindling hours of my downsized job. [machine maintenace]. However family time would increase as we learned to play games with one another instead of travelling to a more formal little league type of recreation. Christmas this year would be small including only immediate family with no distant relatives to knock on the door after travelling to arrive. Gifts would probably be small and necessary not the larger frivolous gifts of years past. We would wonder what the new year would bring nad focus on what we could do for ourselves and close neighbors.

respectfully

reluctantpawn

Prawn makes a good point. How many of us would realy have been impacted by the events you see depicted in this scenario? I, personally, woldn't have been too bothered by any of it. Then again, I lvie in a harsh climate where disaster preperation is the norm.

Originally posted by Justin Oldham
Prawn makes a good point. How many of us would realy have been impacted by the events you see depicted in this scenario? I, personally, woldn't have been too bothered by any of it. Then again, I lvie in a harsh climate where disaster preperation is the norm.

Well, the point pawn is making kind of validates what I've been saying about widespread effect. For one, people living in the mainland, especially in America's metropolitan areas, would've been greatly affected. Riots breaking out, widespread, rampant robbery, absolute civil disorder, and the realization that nuclear bombs are going to start falling any minute. I don't see how only a certain percentage of people can actually be affected.

Hey, folks. sorry I haven't been around much. That's what happens when you get afew crumbs of fame. In light of recent events, I still think this is a worth while discussion. I'm going to be away ALL of next week, but I will be back. I hope you'll keep this going while I am away.

Even for those of us that are more prepared than others and live in a more rural setting will be standing back and waiting to see what may happen. While I may be more self sufficient than those in a more urban environment I am sure that our lives will be changed dramatically.

Do you see the Supreme Courts ruling on the second amendment having any effect on how things might come into play, as far as life in the cities may go?

respectfully

reluctantpawn

The Supreme Court's ruling on the Second Amendment yesterday would probably result in a higher quantity of firearms present throughout the country by mid-2009. It wouldn't become this widespread, chronic problem of proliferation, however. What will become problematic is that in the midst of chaos and a nationwide breakdown in civil order, people will be more inclined to use these guns. Moreover, they will also be able to get these guns more easily, be it stealing it from somebody else, raiding a gun shop, etc. Times of chaos can allow people to get away with just about anything. During the breakdown of civil order during the nuclear stand-off with China, gun violence will go over the top, but this is clearly to be expected.

So the Second Amendment won't have a real direct impact on how many guns are in the hands of people when word gets out of the nuclear alert and rioting breaks out. In such a situation, people will find all sorts of ways to acquire a gun.

The aftermath is a different story. After the declaration of an AIR DEFENSE EMERGENCY, stateside National Guardsmen and Marines take a forefront role in law enforcement. One initiative is to disarm ALL civilians. Because a large percentage of weapons have been stolen or otherwise illegally obtained, the government has no idea who's a legal gunowner or not. Therefore, President Obama decides to go for a "blank slate" and in the clean-up period after the disorder and orders law enforcement and military agencies to search all persons for firearms. They also warn anybody who does not turn over their firearms will be arrested. As a result, the government will have a large inventory of guns to go through for the next year or so. Unfortunately, many guns do fall through the cracks, so a large number of citizens still have guns in their possession.

To sum it all up, the events of 2009 legitimizes as well as forces Barack Obama to enact his gun control policy to the fullest.

In regards to rural areas, these ares are by no means exempt from the chaos and disorder, as they experience a good dose of it as well. Its nothing on the scale seen in the cities and suburbs, but there is looting and violence, particularly amongst youth.

Hey, this is a very "international" discussion. When do we get he next installment? I'm sure there msut be a lot of fallout from these hypothetical events.

Question for everyone: What would the aftermath of these events be like? I can see a lot of investigations, and more than a few political careers coming to an end. For that matter, what happens to the media?

The next installment is coming up soon, I just wanted the year 2009 to sink in a bit.

The fallout from this will be extensive and it will have a detrimental effect many years down the road.

A word about the media, however. The media will achieve almost a God-like status in the aftermath of these events. With the exception of the much-maligned Fox News Channel, many people will find that the media was a stabilizing force. At a time when society completely disintegrated in the face of apocalypse, the media stood its ground and continued delivering information, how ever sensationalized and useless, or how ever honest and useful. The mass of information provided by the media gave people the feeling that in a sense, they were being watched over. In fact, in a poll yet to be conducted, next to Barack Obama, the media will be seen as the most trusted and admired entity in America.

As for Fox News, Democratic members of Congress, as well as Ron Paul, will attempt to file a federal lawsuit against the company for its actions. This lawsuit will fail to make any headway, however, as evidence of wrongdoing on the part of FNC will be scant. In turn, however, News Corporation, already reeling from the global economic downturn, will lose many stockholders who wish to no longer be associated with such an organization. The company will enter a financial crisis, a crisis not alleviated until some years later.

America's admiration and reliance on the media will prove to be instrumental in determining the nature of American society in the decade to follow.

[edit on 27-6-2008 by sweatmonicaIdo]

Just want to let everybody know that this thread is very much still alive. I'm still formulating an absolute flurry of events coming up.

I also want to take this time to make many revisions, revisions that have become necessary with recent events in the real world. I should have mentioned this from the start, but its very difficult to be thurough on something like this when you're trying to have your predictions be the product and reflection of what we're really sseeing take place in reality.

Revisions:
- The Embassy incident in Sana'a, Yemen, did not take place - yet. June 8, 2008 has gone by and we have not had such an event, so strike that.
- The war between Eritrea and Djibouti? Never happened - yet.

However, the situation in Zimbabwe is one that is certainly worth watching. This may indeed be the conflict in Africa that I had envisioned taking place in the middle of 2008. Depending on where things go, the events in Eritrea, Djibouti, and Sudan may become the events of Zimbabwe. We will see.

The recent positive development in North Korea forces me to explain why hostilities arise between them and South Korea in late 2009. At this point, all I will say is that while relations between the U.S. and North Korea improve (somewhat), relations between South Korea, Japan, and North Korea do not improve and there is a link between that and China rising up against the U.S. on the world stage.

Stay tuned.

I am back from my trip, so I'll be keeping an eye on this topic. Hope alli s well for everyone. A lot of good things are happening for me. Some very large opportunities in my future. Speaking of da future, when do we see the next installment of this grand soap opera?

My head cold has finally gone away. I am looking forward to your next installment. I hope you are facoring in the changing financial scene.