Before I begin, I just want to say that if there are people who believe that the U.S. government seeks to start World War III (or IV, depending on your perspective), I am not one of them. I am officially an ex-conspiracy theorist and I am convinced that nobody in the U.S. government seeks to start World War III. Therefore, I believe that World War III will be the result of a trend and accidents, which I prefer to call mistakes and lost opportunities. C. Wright Mills' power elite thesis is the trend, and the billions of different dynamics of life form the accident.
That being said, I don't ignore the fact that members of the American power elite do prefer to advance their interests how ever possible, even if it is through war. But are they willing to make it a world war? I do not believe so. I'm sure they would prefer a bunch of Desert Storm-type wars as opposed to a massive war. It is no secret that the power elite has much to gain from a foreign policy that involves extensive military activity. The thing to remember, however, is that this power elite thesis is not a conspiracy theory, but rather a systemic, organizational phenomenon. While Barack Obama is in many ways the polar opposite of George W. Bush, he is still a part of this power elite because he has the ability to influence national affairs.
Anyway, my own personal World War III scenario (I develop these as a study method, a way of understanding the world), which has gone through numerous incarnations and revisions, is dead. What I intended and saw as the 21st century's version of World War I, I see now as utterly impossible due to my better understanding of the forces and dynamics at work in this new world. For a while, I almost assumed that World War III was a long way off, but after doing some reading and research I see that it is very likely a major conflict will arise in the future. It will just be that radically different from what we have seen in the past. Bottom line is, the Long War will be dominated by MOOTWs, small-scale contingencies, and low-intensity conflict, war amongst the people. But it will have some huge bumps along the way as well. One of those bumps is the following scenario.
So, I would like your thoughts on how World War III would occur in the near future. My new scenario still involves Iran, although instead of my half-baked, impossible "Iran invading the UAE" scenario that I shared with Justin and others like Vagabond, it now involves a U.S.-U.K.-Israel-Saudi Arabia attack on Iran as retaliation for a nuclear terrorist attack that is foiled on U.S. soil. There is a huge twist however, and it comes in the form of a nuclear stand-off with China. In response to the impending attack on Iran, China, an unlikely ally of the Islamic Republic, threatens its own military response, which is exaggerated by Fox News as a nuclear attack, and thus you have the stand-off. It becomes the most sever nuclear crisis in history, as the U.S. comes within 30 seconds of dropping a nuclear bomb on Beijing.
My specific questions are the following:
- How will the Allied governments convince the public of Iran's duplicity? Will another terrorist attack simply delegitimize everyone to the point we have no choice but to attack Iran?
- Assuming the terrorist attack is foiled, how exactly will the U.S. choose to handle the emergency response? Will the Emergency Alert System be utilized? How ill it report the incident to the nation?
- What is the nature of the military response against Iran? Will it be limited air strikes? Will we declare war? What is the domestic response to both the terrorist attack as well as the military response?
In regards to China:
- Fox News reports (inaccurately) that China is seeking to strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons in order to preempt their strike on Iran. What is the immediete result of this? How high will the DEFCON status go? What is the domestic response to this stand-off?
Much of my scenario is garnered from the postulates of General Barry McCaffrey, who recently presented this slide during a seminar he was in charge of:
Note that McCaffrey believes terrorists will strike during the next administration's first term. The foiled nuclear terrorist attack is that first-term strike. I see Barack Obama as president and the time being late 2009. This is what I see being America's status quo in late 2009, again much of it gleaned from mcCaffrey's own predictions:
- The recession will really begin taking hold at around this time, and rates of alcoholism, drug abuse, family violence, crime, depression, and we'll throw in incest for good measure, will be at an all-time high.
- Barack Obama, upon entering office, will order his military commanders to win the Iraq War that year. This will lead to an all-out effort by U.S. and Coalition forces to defeat the Iraqi insurgency, which almost folds under the incredible pressure applied by the Coalition. Unfortunately, by the end of the year, the U.S. shows signs of strain and the military reports they have very little left to give. This precipitates the beginnings of a lengthy withdrawal.
- The Global War on Terrorism expands to the Horn of Africa, which becomes embroiled in bloodshed and chaos. Eritrea engages in warfare with U.S. ally Djibouti, an attack that is defeated by a single Marine Expeditionary Unit. In light of what is seen as a terrorist breeding ground on the verge of exploding, President Bush's last order as Commander-in-Chief is to commence an unprecedented peacekeeping and humanitarian operation in conjunction with the U.N. in Sudan. What starts as a huge MOOTW results in a protracted guerrilla war that results in many civilian deaths and unspeakable atrocities and further strains the U.S. military. Bono and Angelina Jolie are killed in the crossfire in Darfur.
- The U.S. will have to deal with a new enemy to the south: Venezuela. Venezuela will play a major role in America's confrontations with China.
There is more to come. I look forward to your responses.
[edit on 1-5-2008 by sweatmonicaIdo]
